Resolve Strategic, Essential Research and more

A new federal poll from Resolve Strategic plus a data dump from Essential Research equals a lot to discuss.

First up, the Age/Herald bring us the forth instalment in its monthly Resolve Strategic poll series, which has so far come along reliably in the small hours of the third Wednesday each month, with either New South Wales or Victorian state numbers following the next day (this month is the turn of New South Wales – note that half the surveying in the poll due tomorrow will have been conducted pre-lockdown). The voting intention numbers have not changed significantly on last month, with the Coalition down two to 38%, Labor down one to 35%, the Greens up two to 12% and One Nation up one to 4%. This series seeks to make a virtue out of not publishing two-party preferred results, but applying 2019 election flows gives Labor a lead of around 51.5-48.5, out from 50.5-49.5 last time.

There seems to be a fair bit of noise in the state sub-samples, with Queensland recording no improvement for Labor on the 2019 election along with an unlikely surge for One Nation, which is at odds with both the recent Newspoll quarterly breakdowns and the previous two Resolve Strategic results. From slightly more robust sub-sample sizes, New South Wales and Victoria both record swings to Labor of around 2.5%; at the other end of the reliability scale, the swing to Labor in Western Australia is in double digits for the second month in a row, whereas Newspoll had it approaching 9%.

Scott Morrison records net neutral personal ratings, with approval and disapproval both at 46%, which is his worst result from any pollster since March last year. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 30% and up two on disapproval to 46%. Both leaders consistently perform worse in this series than they do in Newspoll and Essential Research, perhaps because respondents are asked to rate the leaders’ performances “in recent weeks”. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 45-24, little changed from 46-23 last time. Labor’s weakness in the Queensland voting intention result is reflected in Albanese’s ratings from that state (in which he happened to spend most of last week) of 22% approval and 53% disapproval.

The poll continues to find only modest gender gaps on voting intention and prime ministerial approval, but suddenly has rather a wide one for Albanese’s personal ratings, with Albanese down five on approval among men to 28% and up six on disapproval to 51%, while respectively increasing by two to 31% and falling by two to 41% among women. The full display of results is available here; it includes 12 hand-picked qualitative assessments from respondents to the poll, of which four mention the vaccine rollout and two mention Barnaby Joyce. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1607.

Also out today was the usual fortnightly Essential Research poll, which less usually included one of its occasional dumps of voting intention data, in this case for 12 polls going back to February. Its “2PP+” measure, which includes an undecided component that consistently comes in at 7% or 8%, has credited Labor with leads of two to four points for the last six fortnights. The most recent result has it at 47-45, from primary votes that come in at Coalition 40%, Labor 39%, Greens 11% and One Nation 4% if the 8% undecided are excluded. If previous election preferences are applied to these numbers, Labor’s two-party lead comes in at upwards of 52-48.

All of this provides a lot of new grist for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, but it’s done very little to change either its recent trajectory or its current reading, which has Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred. The Resolve Strategic leadership ratings add further emphasis to established trends, which saw Morrison taking a hit when sexual misconduct stories hit the news in April, briefly recovering and then heading south again as the politics of the pandemic turned against him, while Albanese has maintained a slower and steadier decline.

The Essential poll also includes its occasional question on leaders attributes, although it seems to have dropped its practice of extending this to the Opposition Leader and has become less consistent in the attributes it includes. The biggest move since mid-March is a 15% drop in “good in a crisis” to 49%; on other measures, relating to honesty, vision, being in touch, accepting responsibility and being in control of his team, Morrison has deteriorated by six to nine points. A new result for “plays politics” yields an unflattering result of 73%, but there’s no way of knowing at this point how unusual this is for a political leader.

The poll also finds approval of the government’s handling of COVID-19 has not deteriorated further since the slump recorded a fortnight ago, with its good rating up two to 46% and poor up one to 31%. State government ratings are also fairly stable this time: over three surveys, the New South Wales government’s good rating has gone from 69% to 57% to 54%; Victoria’s has gone from 48% to 50% to 49%; and Queensland’s has gone from 65% to 61% to 62%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1100.

In a similar vein, the Australia Institute has released polling tracking how the federal and state tiers are perceived to have handled COVID-19 since last August, which records a steadily growing gap in the states’ favour that has reached 42% to 24% in the latest survey. Breakdowns for the four largest states find Western Australia to be the big outlier at 61% to 11% in favour of the state government, with Victoria recording the narrowest gap at 34% to 25%. Fully 77% of respondents supported state border closures with only 18% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,799 comments on “Resolve Strategic, Essential Research and more”

Comments Page 12 of 36
1 … 11 12 13 … 36

  1. lizzie

    I’m in the same boat. Got in early. Have had my 2nd AZ. It certainly feels good to have a reasonable level of protection, but now I’ve got the practical issue of exactly when and how to get a booster, in a country that doesn’t officially support that, yet.

  2. ‘p

    boerwar

    Wicked, wicked Lithuania.

    In WWII they were. The Baltic states punched well above their weight for Waffen-SS holocaust related atrocities.’
    ______________________________
    I do hope you are not condemning today’s Lithuanians for something that happened 80 years ago – especially when the Lithuanians are supporting democratic Taiwan over despotic China?

  4. Lars Von Baron has strangely gone MIA on this blog after been shot down in flames over Dover by multiple Spitfires of truth.

    Will recon/nath deploy the E-boats from Calais to bring his boy home to safety?

  6. Will recon/nath deploy the E-boats from Calais to bring his boy home to safety?
    ———————
    I thought nath was given das boot.

  7. “ I do hope you are not condemning today’s Lithuanians for something that happened 80 years ago – especially when the Lithuanians are supporting democratic Taiwan over despotic China?”

    What! Calling out the scions of unhung Nazis for reverting to type?

    Sacrebleu!

  11. Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
    Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 4:01 pm
    Lars Von Baron has strangely gone MIA on this blog after been shot down in flames over Dover by multiple Spitfires of truth.

    Will recon/nath deploy the E-boats from Calais to bring his boy home to safety?
    _____________________
    Your analogies are misshapen. The Baron was shot down over the Somme. And in WW1 the U-boats were deployed from Heligoland. Unforgivable from Rear Admiral Earlwood.

  12. Cheryl Kernot
    @cheryl_kernot
    ·
    1m
    More accurately- systemic freight checking failure by NSW. Truck had no compulsory navigation gear, either. #COVIDNSW

    ***
    7NEWS Melbourne
    @7NewsMelbourne
    · 19m
    EXCLUSIVE: The moment Sydney’s rogue removalists delivered COVID to Victoria, shutting down the state. Full details in 7NEWS at 6pm. http://7NEWS.com.au #7NEWS

  16. Apart from Sarstedt, St Trinian’s films, The Blues Brothers, Oldfield, and Jethro Tull, what has the music industry ever done for us!

  19. Kakuru @ #526 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 3:14 pm

    “Pretty accurate comment from Big Ears Cry Baby.”

    Pretty nasty & petty comment from Recon/nath.

    You expected him to change? But it’s laughable really. Some stay at home internet no mark trying to humiliate the Shadow Treasurer on an internet forum that the Shadow Treasurer will never read. So, to what end? To prove how hairy-chested he is? If so, epic fail.

  21. Griff @ #564 Wednesday, July 21st, 2021 – 4:21 pm

    We discussed Hamish McDonald leaving the ABC after 18 months. Not sure if this has been mentioned this afternoon, but apparently Hamish has returned to walk the boards at The Project. Peter Van Onselen has been shunted. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/21/hamish-macdonalds-return-to-the-project-forces-ten-to-dump-peter-van-onselen

    From the article:

    “I am over the moon to be returning to 10 and thrilled about the opportunity to make great local and international content with this dynamic group of producers and presenters,” Macdonald said.

    Bit of a slap in the face for the ABC.

  22. Dear C@t. I thought we promised not to address posts at each other. Please cease and desist, or I will be forced to take reprisals.

  25. After the fall of France the Germans were able to redeploy much of their E-boats from Wilhelmshaven to Ports along the French coast: thereby saving them a 200nm round trip.

    I could be wrong, naff naff, but I do recall that Calais was chosen as a fast response port for the purposes of rescuing downed Luftwaffe pilots, with Cherbourg and other ports used for more offensive operations. What whatever, the E-boats tasked with that mission were no longer based out of the North Sea.

  26. After the fall of France the Germans were able to redeploy much of their E-boats from Wilhelmshaven to Ports along the French coast: thereby saving them a 200nm round trip.

    I could be wrong, naff naff, but I do recall that Calais was chosen as a fast response port for the purposes of rescuing downed Luftwaffe pilots, with Cherbourg and other ports used for more offensive operations. What whatever, the E-boats tasked with that mission were no longer based out of the North Sea.

  29. C@t:

    Probably, but Qanda will be the poorer for this departure. He was streets ahead as a facilitator compared to Tony Jones.

  30. E boats! never heard of them. I assumed you were converting U boats into an internet themed E Boat. Your maritime credentials are restored.

  32. It will be interesting to see the difference between McDonald on ABC and 10.

    It will also be interesting to see the difference of Qanda on the ABC.

    Will we see more left viewpoints on our media or less?

  33. ‘Simon Katich says:
    Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 4:03 pm

    Will recon/nath deploy the E-boats from Calais to bring his boy home to safety?
    ———————
    I thought nath was given das boot.’
    ______________________
    haha. good one.

  37. A word boerwar should have alerted us to years ago 🙂
    .
    .
    RonniSalt
    @RonniSalt
    I see Australia is a rudderless ship again tonight as the Captain of the craft aborts the deck.

    14 million Australians now in lockdown, the various Premiers steeping up to lead the nation while Prime Minister Skitterbrook* disappears in search of a spine.

    https://twitter.com/RonniSalt/status/1417451971200442368

    *Skitterbrook –

    PRONUNCIATION:
    (SKIT-uhr-brook)

    MEANING:
    noun: A coward.

    ETYMOLOGY:
    From Dutch schijtebroek (literally, shits his pants), from schijten (to shit) + broek (pants). Earliest documented use: 1652.

    USAGE:
    “The royal skitterbrook’s advice to the remnants of his army, still holding out in castles and towns along the borders, was terse and characteristic: ‘Let each man look to himself. Expect no help from me.’”
    Thomas B. Costain; The Conquerors; Doubleday; 1949

  41. porotisays:
    Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 4:45 pm

    “The royal skitterbrook’s advice to the remnants of his army, still holding out in castles and towns along the borders, was terse and characteristic: ‘Let each man look to himself. Expect no help from me.’”
    Thomas B. Costain; The Conquerors; Doubleday; 1949
    ___________________
    Thomas B Coastain is one of the great historical novelists. His series on the Plantagenets is incredible. His novel on the French occupation of Quebec is similarly epic.

  44. The Greens might approve the purchase of Lancasters but anything more modern that that would be an automatic ‘no’.

    But have the Greens thought about how peace studies are to be delivered if not in bundles from 50,000 feet?

Comments Page 12 of 36
1 … 11 12 13 … 36

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *