As a new financial year dawns, it’s all happening on Poll Bludger — in addition to this post, there is:
• A new post by Adrian Beaumont on Britain’s Batley and Spen by-election, French regional elections and the New York City mayoral election;
• A post on the new draft state redistribution for Victoria, including my calculations of party vote shares for the new boundaries;
• A post on the federal redistribution for Victoria, which has now been finalised, and which likewise comes with an accounting of party vote shares under the new boundaries, and some analysis of how the changes affects the Greens prospects in Macnamara and Higgins; and
• The regular bi-monthly donation drive.
Further developments:
• The Northern Territory Country Liberal Party has preselected Jacinta Price as its Senate candidate at the expense of incumbent Sam McMahon, who came to the position at the 2019 election. Price is the deputy mayor of Alice Springs Council and head of indigenous research at conservative think thank the Centre for Independent Studies, and ran unsuccessfully for the CLP in Lingiari at the 2019 election. McMahon was in the news last week after her unsteadiness while in the Senate chamber prompted allegations she was drunk, although she insisted she had in fact been suffering symptoms of severe hypertension.
• The mayor of Alice Springs, Damien Ryan, has been preselected by the CLP as its new candidate for Lingiari, which will be vacated with the retirement of Labor veteran Warren Snowdon. Labor’s new candidate is Marion Scrymgour, former Deputy Chief Minister and current chief executive of the Northern Land Council.
• Federal parliament’s Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has published the report from its inquiry on the future conduct of elections operating during times of emergency situations. After considering the recent experiences of Queensland council elections, the Eden-Monaro by-election and general elections in Tasmania and the Northern Territory, it offers fairly modest recommendations: to give the Electoral Commissioner the power to extend pre-polling periods and allow for no-excuse postal and pre-poll voting (which exists de facto in any case) should the circumstances demand it, and to change the Electoral Act to change the date of an election in an emergency, giving better effect to a power that already exists under the Constitution.
• July 24 has been set as the date for Queensland’s Stretton by-election, which will fill the vacancy created by Labor member Duncan Pegg’s resignation after a terminal cancer diagnosis in May, followed weeks later by his death. The by-election will be contested for Labor by James Martin, a former electorate officer to Pegg, and for the Liberal National Party by Jim Bellos, a police officer and former Queenslander of the Year. Labor’s margin in the seat is 14.8%; I’ll be publishing a guide to the by-election soon-ish.
“[Morrison] sees politics as about gathering numbers and building networks of patronage. He understands leadership as a carrot and stick exercise. You win backers by granting largesse to those that please you. You punish those that dare cross you.”
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Yes, in the true (Hillsong) Christian way.
Twitter tells you before the media does:
“First up, there is a pretty serious situation unfolding in the Syndey aged care system.
Three residents have tested positive to Covid-19 at a north-west Sydney aged care home after they were in close contact with two staff members who tested positive last week.
Two of the three residents who tested positive on Saturday night at the SummitCare facility in Baulkham Hills have been transferred to Westmead hospital as a precaution, a spokesperson said on Sunday morning. They are showing “no symptoms whatsoever”.
The third resident remains at the home at the request of their family.
SummitCare says 96% of residents at the home are vaccinated, and the facility is now in lockdown.
We are expecting an update later today after Summit care speaks with the NSW health department, so I will bring that to you as soon as possible.”
The Nigerian author does not say he’s applied for a vaccine and been rejected. Neither does the link he provides suggest that anyone has been rejected.
There appears to be – from the linked article – a panic on in the African media.
I think it’s a wait and see situation, and would expect that, at the most, it’s the kind of unintended consequence which gets resolved very quickly.
Speers opens “Australians promised better times ahead”.
Well, that’s a comfort. Straight from the PMO spin.
Simon Birmingham is a grub. It’s Morrison and his government who have been politicising the pandemic!
@Ven you have read what boerwar posts haven’t you? Just skim, you don’t need to go into detail.
Personally I find the whole topic tiresome and skim past the lot, but lets not pretend it doesn’t exist as much as we wish to, OK?
Ven @ #511 Sunday, July 4th, 2021 – 8:58 am
And we are its target because we can influence others to take a better line on China.
vaccine passport, I mean…
Karen Middleton on the money regarding sQomo’s 4 phase plan with “the SmearStralian editorial told him to do something…”
Simon Birmingham is a grub. It’s Morrison and his government who have been politicising the pandemic!
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It was Morrison who desperately politicised the situation with his post National Cabinet meeting comment about AZ for the younger ones.
It is true that most imperial powers in their eclipse and decline suffer from nostalgia to some extent. Some, such as the Dutch, get over it and get on with it.
Others, such as the Brits wallow in it to their detriment. Let’s have another movie about Churchill and World War 2.
The US was exceptional in its economic, military, reach and power. That is before you come to US soft power.
The US is sliding relative to other powers. The ability of all concerned to enable this slide to happen with a minimum of unnecessary disruption is a major global challenge second only to the globe’s capacity to limit global warming to less than 4 degrees.
IMO, a significant domestic subset of nostalgia in the US has to do with the smashing of US manufacturing industry following globalization. The victims of this – predominantly less-educated, older, white males are the hunting ground of Trump & Co. For these individuals, America WAS great: they had secure, full-time, well-paying jobs that had healthcare benefits attached. Now, at best, they have underpaying casual jobs. At worst, they are homeless and jobless and living on food stamps.
The number will be a number. Till it becomes a gate.
Ha! ‘Mockdown’. Good one.
‘Dr Sally KoalaKoala@slsandpet
Does anyone in Sydney know how far we are allowed to go to shop or exercise??’
‘Don’t Mess With Tess@NomessTess
It’s a #mockdown! So no rules just “guidelines” !’
1 trust me = 2 targets = 4 phases = 8 horizons = 16 plans = 26,000,000 flu nirvana infinities
Relieved to see Greg the Lyin’ Hunt on the job….
‘Federal Health Minister Greg Hunt warned airlines against price gouging in the wake of the new passenger limits. “I hope there is nobody who seeks a commercial advantage from difficult circumstances and that’s a strong, clear message,” he said on Saturday.
Cutting the cap on commercial arrivals by half will exacerbate the difficulty 34,000 stranded Australians already face in returning home.’
Being offered a vaccine is one thing. A decent and penetrating public health campaign is what is sorely needed.
C@t
People make up their own minds and endless ranting achieves very little. If anything it’s off-putting. You can’t force thoughts into someone’s head. Simple objective reporting, and letting people draw their own conclusions, is far more effective.
Fact is that Xi’s and China’s own words and actions have had a far greater effect on (lowering) opinions of China than the endless PB China wars.
spr
Policy making by cross your fingers?
Tens of thousands of dollars scalping going on, despite Hunt’s ‘hope’.
Sprocket_
Is this gouging?
https://www.theage.com.au/national/hunt-warns-against-gouging-as-airfares-soar-ahead-of-new-arrival-caps-20210703-p586j3.html
Simon Birmingham is a grub. It’s Morrison and his government who have been politicising the pandemic!
Propaganda 101 – accuse your opponents of what you yourself have been doing.
The only possible interest in Birmingham’s i.v. will be how much golden glitter he can throw at Morrison’s week.
boerwar @ #1991 Saturday, July 3rd, 2021 – 10:28 pm
You mean just like Australia is? THE BASTARD! HOW DARE HE!!!
Speers interrupts Middleton every time. Is he afraid she might tell the truth about Morrison? Answer: yes.
DisplayName @ #528 Sunday, July 4th, 2021 – 9:18 am
Exactly. Zoidlord Zerlo’s rants are counterproductive if anything.
C@t
I wish I could block Zerlo on my mobile. I used to enjoy long night time discussions by other people.
Zoomster
As I said, take anything from the UK regarding the EU with a grain of salt – however, the article was saying that AZ has been approved and where it’s manufactured is irrelevant to that approval (bc it’s the same stuff).
100% wrong.. it isn’t the same stuff.. the manufacturing process & quality control does influence the quality.. the country of origin can influence the efficacy of the vaccine.
More white anting of AZ! You are part of it.
This is just so shonky from the Libs…
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/03/this-is-fifty-shades-of-bad-the-coalitions-660m-taxpayer-lifeline-for-marginal-seat-mps
Just like Hunt, Birmingham uses bulk stats to gaslight us and avoid questions.
U.S. COVID update: 7 more states stop releasing weekend updates, 32 in total
– New cases: 7,412 …………………. – New deaths: 110
– In hospital: 16,017 (-35)
– In ICU: 3,966 (+27)
621,255 total deaths now
Rex D
The Libs are shonky? Today’s revelation!
2.5 million Pfizer / month coming in a few months.
The much-trumpeted European Union COVID Digital Green Pass, which launches 1 July and is meant to vastly ease travel to Europe for vaccinated and recovered passengers is being rolled out with one important hitch.
Anyone vaccinated with an AstraZeneca vaccine produced by the Serum Institute of India would not be qualified to get the pass – and that includes most citizens of low- and middle-income countries who were immunised with vaccines distributed by the WHO co-sponsored COVAX initiative.
That’s because the EU green pass will only recognise the Vaxzevria version of the AstraZeneca vaccine that was produced and manufactured in the United Kingdom or other sites around Europe, and thus approved by the European Medicines Agency (EMA).
https://healthpolicy-watch.news/most-covax-vaccine-recipients-excluded/
ItzaDream @ #2092 Sunday, July 4th, 2021 – 9:34 am
People under 60 should pick up the phone to a GP now re AZ.
Trusting this Govts promises is fraught with danger.
FGS It’s no good asking Birmingham if he knew of the Banks incident. Three wise monkeys have nothing on our Simon.
Sceptic
Er, I’m saying AZ’s fine – you’re not.
I’ve had my AZ, so has my spouse, I’ve advocated very publicly that anyone who is eligible should get the jab.
Please stop ignoring the ‘grain of salt’. However, that applies both ways.
The article you cite in support of your stance – and yours is the anti AZ one, not mine – is an opinion. It does not seem to have any factual basis. It is speculation.
Sometimes speculation is borne out in reality. Sometimes it isn’t.
However, the British Health article makes it clear that there is no difference between the vaccine approved by the EU and the Indian made vaccine.
Nearly every pharmaceutical I can think of have several different names. The importance is the active ingredient, not the name. (Panadol and paracetemol are the same thing; a list which included one name but not the other would be seen as applying to both).
So an Indian produced AZ and a British produced AZ are, to all intents and purposes, exactly the same product.
It would be unreasonable to expect the EU to list every single name a particular product is known as. In fact, that would make it more likely that they would miss one and disbar people unintentionally.
They have approved AZ, and – at the moment – that’s the bottom line.
Sceptic
Yes, I’ve read that article. It’s speculation.
Birmingham on the carpark rorts. “We will act on the ANAO report as we always do.”
Yes, by cutting its funding even more!
Speers tries to pin B down with a direct question, end up having to say “With great respect, Minister” (you didn’t answer the bloody question)..
Birmo clearly giving Speers and the Australian people the promise to continue porks and rorts
We all know that 30 years of a Greens Party has been a net detriment to the the Australian environment.
That said, there is a particular interest here. There can be no doubt that the European Honeybee operates in Australia at considerable expense to native species. Yet many of our food crops depend heavily on this threat to our biodiversity:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/04/biodiversity-loss-could-wreck-the-global-financial-system-and-its-only-a-matter-of-time
Brazen beyond belief.
Rex
So from October say 2million / month they would have to ramp up inoculations ..
Tracking the Covid-19 vaccine rollout in Australia
Showing doses administered as well as the federal government’s original, revised and current goals.
At the 7 day rolling average of 123.4k doses, it will take 9 more months to administer 45m doses.
The current vaccination gap is 4.6m doses.
Last updated 04/07/2021.
We are looking at 18months min….
clusterfucked big time
”
C@tmommasays:
Sunday, July 4, 2021 at 7:21 am
Bondi Beach during Lockdown yesterday:
”
I said yezterday and repeat it today: Sydney siders are free spirits. 🙂
Middleton describes the shambles of the car park grants and just for once Speers doesn’t interrupt.
Geoffrey Watson SC:
Saturday Paper
lizzie @ #2095 Sunday, July 4th, 2021 – 9:48 am
But essentially dismisses the gravity of the issue at the end of the discussion with a bit of a smirk about well you’d think differently if you got the carpark, ha ha.
”
Naaman Zhou reports that Australian teachers have revealed the personal toll of the increasing casualisation of the workforce, saying short-term contracts for years on end force them to forego holiday pay and frequently reapply for their position.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/04/everyones-bailing-australian-teachers-speak-on-stress-and-uncertainty-of-increasing-casual-contracts
”
This is happening in IT industry for atleast 15 years. That is the reason so many 490 series visas were issued before pandemic.
Also, isn’t the ‘all powerful’ Teachers Union not protecting teachers?
I won’t post them, but there are two pics on Twitter from ScottyFromMarketing supposedly showing the mise en place for his curry and then the final dish. The ingredients don’t match the final. How far can all this spin take us?
You just can’t trust the Libs with taxpayers money.