Roy Morgan: 50.5-49.5 to Labor

Another pollster with another tight voting intention result, plus preselection latest from federal seats in Perth.

Roy Morgan has produced its second federal poll in a fortnight, and will hopefully make a regular habit of this going forward. The poll credits Labor with a bare lead of 50.5-49.5 (Morgan’s rounding being done to increments of half a percentage point), down from 51-49 last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up 1.5% to 41.5%, Labor is down half a point to 34.5%, the Greens are up half a point to 12% and One Nation is up half a point to 3.5%. State two-party breakdowns have the Coalition leading 51-49 in New South Wales, 56-44 in Queensland and 52-48 in Western Australia, but with Labor leading 55-45 in Victoria, 52-48 in South Australia and 57-43 in Tasmania.

The poll was conducted by telephone and online surveys over the previous two weekends from a sample of 2782. Since we will presumably be hearing more from Morgan in future, it’s worth pointing out that the company is not a member of the Australian Polling Council, and thus does not observe the standards of transparency demanded of its code of conduct.

Other news:

• Peter Law of The West Australian reports that Labor’s candidate for the key Perth seat of Swan will be Zaneta Mascarenhas, an engineer who runs an energy management consultancy. This comes after the state party’s Left-dominated administration committee blocked the nomination of the only other contender, former South Perth councillor Fiona Reid, on the grounds she had run as an independent candidate at the 2017 state election, to the displeasure of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association. Mascarenhas is aligned with the Left faction Australian Manufacturing Workers’ Union. The West’s report also relates that Tania Lawrence, a manager at Woodside who ran unsuccessfully for Labor in Darling Range at a state by-election in 2018, is the party’s only nominee in the seat of Hasluck.

• Pollster John Utting has told The West Australian that his recent polling leads him to expect that Labor will win Swan and possibly Pearce. He also believes that Labor will “probably” win the election off the back of wins in Chisholm, Boothby, Longman and potentially Leichhardt, Braddon and Bass, although they could potentially lose Eden-Monaro and Macquarie. Utting has polled extensively for Labor and provided polling for The West Australian five months out from the March state election that had the measure of the eventual result.

• Roxanne Fitzgerald of the ABC reports a complaint has been lodged with the Human Rights Commission accusing the Australian Electoral Commission of discrimination against indigenous voters, having failed to provide sufficient polling facilities to remote communities and directly enrol people who do not receive mail at a residential address. The complainants are Matthew Ryan, mayor of West Arnhem Regional Council, and Ross Mandi, chairman of Yalu Aboriginal Corporation in Galiwinku, with the support of the Maritime Union of Australia and the United Workers Union.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,513 comments on “Roy Morgan: 50.5-49.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 48 of 51
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  3. Correct me if I’m mistaken but isn’t Civil Aviation a federal responsibility? If it is, can we add the failure of flight crews to be vaccinated before working with unvaccinated passengers to be yet another failure of this feckless slob of a prime Minister? That would mean he is ultimately responsible for quarantine, aged care, vaccine supply and rollout as well as air transport that he has screwed the pooch on. He’s doing very well. But at least he got an overseas holiday that he can throw in everyone’s faces…

  5. I would like to commend Channel Nine for running their own pro-vaccination ads during the State of Origin. If only the federal government would do something similar.

  6. Lynchpin: “MB, that is a disgraceful comment. Offensive in the extreme. You should do the decent thing and withdraw it.”

    OK, I’ll modify it a bit. There seem to be people who see a major outbreak as inevitable, and are anticipating being able to blame State and Federal Liberal governments for it. And, as an example, I will quote Koukoulis’s tweet once again.

    “The decision of Ms Berejiklian to postpone the lockdown is shaping up to be one of the worst by an Australian politician in many decades.”

    Why make such a statement now other than for partisan political reasons?

  10. With Wimbledon starting tomorrow hopefully Barty starts every press conference with i have felt great since my jab. Wonder if Ash was a bloke whether we would be hearing more about it.

  11. Confessions
    No mask again. She really isn’t good at demonstrating leadership during a time of crisis.

    Old photo pre lockdown

  13. I think Channel 10 could easily put together its own news channel relatively easily by using CBSN from America to fill the gaps and repeating the local bulletins every couple of hours, a few repeats of the previous nights Project and perhaps a talking head show.

  16. shellbell: “The Kouk just wants likes”

    Fair enough, I quite like some of his stuff. But IMO it’s far too early to declare the NSW outbreak as a catastrophe.

    However, I also accept that impugning base motives to those with whom I disagree is infra dig, and I shouldn’t indulge in it.

  17. C@t

    No I missed that earlier. Interesting read. Hard to comment on it fully because there’s so many different things being rolled up into one article. But let me make a few points.

    CO2 capture and reuse – where the CO2 itself isn’t fossil but is generated from waste. That’s got its merits.

    Recycling (like those commercial carpets) is a worthy activity, but it doesn’t solve the fact that these sorts of products have a limited life cycle and in the end you end up with stuff that can only be recycled by breaking down at the molecular level.

    Putting CO2 into building materials is a good idea. Again, depends on the life cycle.

    My take away is that we still need to build industrial scale reprocessing for landfill. Anyone here got a few tens of millions spare? I can introduce you to a design for a pilot scale plant 🙂

  18. meher baba

    “Why make such a statement now other than for partisan political reasons?”

    Stating a simple fact as:

    “The decision of Ms Berejiklian to postpone the lockdown is shaping up to be one of the worst by an Australian politician in many decades.” is partisan political?

  20. Cud Chewersays:
    Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 7:04 pm
    I only

    Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 7:04 pm
    I only just got back to having a social life in Sydney. Now, that’s fucked again

    Fuck you, Gladys
    Fuck you, Gladys
    Fuck you, Gladys

    I hope that makes my feelings known.

    ……..

    Berejiklian has spent the last 18 months lying about stuff she had lied about in the past, in an attempt to cover up lies she might think she may tell in the present, to justify lies she may tell now, for the purpose of recusing herself of other lies she could tell in the future.

    The woman is a 3 dimensional chess master of wickedness.

    Morrison hasn’t a hope in hell of beating her if she decides to dump him in the shit.

  21. Sceptic says:
    Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 7:30 pm

    Confessions
    No mask again. She really isn’t good at demonstrating leadership during a time of crisis.

    Old photo pre lockdown
    ________________
    Sprocket fails again to get a false flag photo past the PB skeptics.

  22. Kouk like many others think Gladdys should have locked down earlier, but she didn’t because she made it a virtue to not do lockdowns.
    Problem with that is, you just can’t rule out lockdowns when Australia’s policy has been to eradicate Covid in the community. Not only is it a political blunder, but now it just hurts us all in the end.

    Given the vaccines rollout and quarantine blunders, it was really not that hard to see this coming miles away.
    Anyone who believed NSW was immune to lockdowns really did swallow a lot of political non sense

  24. Hey nath, posted 2 hours ago by GoldStandardGladys…

    She’s the one purloining old images to take the heat of her clusterfwark

  26. BTW, what did the ACT and its residents do to be barred entry to several states? (But not Tassie so far, I’m pleased to say).

    There have been no COVID-19 cases in the ACT in almost 12 months and no current exposure sites: those previously notified turning out to be associated with a false positive diagnosis.

    It seems rather harsh.

  27. The ones to blame for playing politics , is the Federal and NSW libs/nats government there is no doubt

    1- Both the Federal and NSW libs/nats attacked the Labor states/territories for closing borders and lockdowns, while ignoring the 2 liberal governments S.A and TAS for doing the same as Labor states/territories

    2- Both the Federal and NSW libs/nats claimed NSW was gold standards and mocking other states/territories contact trace system,

    3- the Federal libs/nats – Liberal Party logo on the vaccines

  28. I also found this comment, by an AMA Vice-President, to be intriguing.

    ““We’re basically having a cross-country seeding event, that’s as simple as that,” he said.
    Dr Moy said states and territories have to go hard on restrictions early to minimise the spread after two separate coronavirus outbreaks have sparked cases in NSW, the Northern Territory, Western Australia and Queensland.
    “It’s beaten the NSW contact tracers, and the reliance on contact tracers and holding out [on introducing a lockdown] for a few days has led to seeding across the country.”

    Is it true that all of the cases around the country came from NSW initially? We’ve been told that the WA one did, and we know that a couple of cases in Queensland were the alpha variant, so presumably didn’t. Most of the rest were brought from Victoria to a NT mine by a FIFO worker and then spread elsewhere in the NT and Queensland from there. Has the FIFO worker’s case been traced back to the Bondi cluster?

  29. She posts the photo two hours earlier today under the heading “Let’s wrap the series up tonight”, and her apologists go into a fit of apoplexy because someone has the temerity to comment on her lack of a mask on “todays” photo?

    Too funny.

  30. Comment of the night goes to Arthur – first poster in a long time to call Littlefinger “Brilliant”.

  31. Lets not forget before the attacks on Labor states/territories

    Morrison and Hunt playing politics that Australians would be amongst the first to receive the vaccines

  32. meher baba @ #2376 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 7:42 pm

    BTW, what did the ACT and its residents do to be barred entry to several states? (But not Tassie so far, I’m pleased to say).

    There have been no COVID-19 cases in the ACT in almost 12 months and no current exposure sites: those previously notified turning out to be associated with a false positive diagnosis.

    It seems rather harsh.

    Hmmm, not quite following you Meher Baba, ACT and residents barred entry to several states? Which ones?

    No, Tassie isn’t barred but then we don’t have any new cases …. yet.

  33. Meher Baba

    “BTW, what did the ACT and its residents do to be barred entry to several states? (But not Tassie so far, I’m pleased to say).”

    You do realise that ACT is being swamped by Sydneysiders that fled before the lockdown?

    The ease of people from the lockdown areas to access the ACT?

    No?

    Stop being obtuse.

  34. Dan Andrews records the story of his fall and his gratitude to all who supported him and ABC Willingham says he will have questions to answer about lockdowns and anyway that was a campaign speech. Won’t give him a moment’s grace.

  35. Fulvio Sammut @ #2379 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 7:49 pm

    She posts the photo two hours earlier today under the heading “Let’s wrap the series up tonight”, and her apologists go into a fit of apoplexy because someone has the temerity to comment on her lack of a mask on “todays” photo?

    Too funny.

    The truth hurts.

  36. Been There: “You do realise that ACT is being swamped by Sydneysiders that fled before the lockdown?”

    I thought that the ACT was sending them back home.

  37. Morrison absolutely insane comment on thursday , claiming NSW will not go into lockdown because the NSW government will get on top of it

  39. meher baba @ #2378 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 7:48 pm

    I also found this comment, by an AMA Vice-President, to be intriguing.

    ““We’re basically having a cross-country seeding event, that’s as simple as that,” he said.
    Dr Moy said states and territories have to go hard on restrictions early to minimise the spread after two separate coronavirus outbreaks have sparked cases in NSW, the Northern Territory, Western Australia and Queensland.
    “It’s beaten the NSW contact tracers, and the reliance on contact tracers and holding out [on introducing a lockdown] for a few days has led to seeding across the country.”

    Is it true that all of the cases around the country came from NSW initially? We’ve been told that the WA one did, and we know that a couple of cases in Queensland were the alpha variant, so presumably didn’t. Most of the rest were brought from Victoria to a NT mine by a FIFO worker and then spread elsewhere in the NT and Queensland from there. Has the FIFO worker’s case been traced back to the Bondi cluster?

    I thought that the FIFO worker at the NT mine picked up the delta variant from QLD h0tel quarantine – and has passed it on.

  40. I have a couple of my friends, that sadly travelled long and deep down anti-Dan Andrews social media worm-holes.
    Both have switched their ire, seemingly overnight, to tirades against Glady and the vaccine rollout.

  41. Hmmm, not quite following you Meher Baba, ACT and residents barred entry to several states? Which ones?

    WA for one.

  43. meher baba says:
    Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 7:42 pm
    BTW, what did the ACT and its residents do to be barred entry to several states? (But not Tassie so far, I’m pleased to say).

    There have been no COVID-19 cases in the ACT in almost 12 months and no current exposure sites: those previously notified turning out to be associated with a false positive diagnosis.

    It seems rather harsh.

    The potential for infections entering the ACT is very high. There have been 24,000 people who have filed in online declaration forms, 10,000 of whom are now subject to stay at home orders (news article quote). Remember that it’s only a three hour drive between Canberra and Sydney CBDs.

    The ACT government is taking the threat very seriously with masks now mandatory indoors for the first time. I can’t blame other states for limiting travel from ACT at this time. We are certainly not anxious to go anywhere.

  44. Scott: “Morrison absolutely insane comment on thursday , claiming NSW will not go into lockdown because the NSW government will get on top for it”

    Certainly an incorrect prediction. We’ve seen plenty of those in the past: eg, by every poster on PB (including me) before the counting started on election day 2019!

  45. Lizzie @ #2382 Sunday, June 27th, 2021 – 7:51 pm

    Dan Andrews records the story of his fall and his gratitude to all who supported him and ABC Willingham says he will have questions to answer about lockdowns and anyway that was a campaign speech. Won’t give him a moment’s grace.

    The electorate stopped listening to Willingham during the Big Lockdown didn’t they?

  49. Fulvio Sammut says:
    Sunday, June 27, 2021 at 7:49 pm

    She posts the photo two hours earlier today under the heading “Let’s wrap the series up tonight”, and her apologists go into a fit of apoplexy because someone has the temerity to comment on her lack of a mask on “todays” photo?

    Too funny.
    ____________
    The photo is much older than today. The Coach of NSW would be in Queensland today don’t you think. Considering the game tonight.

  50. Of course the NSW Coalition Government is a bunch of spivs, as has been nearly every NSW Government since 1788. However, they have generally been competent and don’t have the sheer nastiness of their Federal and some of their interstate colleagues (e.g. Dan Guy). The hard right reactionaries and religious crackpots aren’t in control – at least not yet.

    Regarding their management of the response to the Pandemic, they’ve generally done well, with a couple of stumbles. For example, the localised lockdown of the Northern Beaches over Christmas worked well.

    However, this time they seem to have slipped up badly. The need for a lockdown of at least Greater Sydney should have been obvious Thursday as cases and hot spots spread beyond the City and the three Eastern suburbs LGAs. Gladys has now done the right thing, but at least two days too late. That two days could prove calamitous, or maybe we’ll get lucky again.

    We shall see in due course.

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