Essential Research and Redbridge Group Victorian poll

One pollster records nervous attitudes towards China, another a modest lead for the Labor government in Victoria.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll offers questions on foreign relations that include the finding that 51% believe Australia should become less close to China, down three points since December, with 24% believing relations should stay the same and only 12% believing they should get closer. By contrast, respondents were positive about relations with, in ascending order of enthusiasm, the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom and New Zealand. Further questions record a surge for the influence of the United States since May last year and the intervening presidential election result.

An occasionally recurring question on climate change also found 56% believing it to be caused by human activity against 27% for normal fluctuation, suggesting a slight shift to skepticism since a few years ago. Forty-five per cent rate that Australia is not doing enough on climate change compared with 30% for enough and 12% for too much. Assessments on this question appear to have become more lenient since the onset of COVID-19, prior to which “not doing enough” was at upwards of 60%. A series of related questions record enthusiasm for renewable energy and a zero emissions target. The poll was conducted online from Wednesday to Sunday with a sample of 1087.

We also had a Victorian state poll yesterday in the Herald-Sun from Redbridge Group, which is run by former Labor operatives Simon Welsh and Kosmos Samaras. The primary votes are solidly better for the Coalition than last week’s Resolve Strategic poll in The Age, showing them with a lead of 41% to 37%, but Labor is nonetheless credited with a lead of 52.4-47.6 on two-party preferred, reflecting a Greens vote of 12% compared with Resolve Strategic’s 9%. These come with regional breakdowns that can be viewed here.

The poll also has a preferred premier question had Daniel Andrews at 42.4%, Michael O’Brien on 23.1% and neither on 28.2%; Andrews leads James Merlino 67.5% to 32.5% in a head-to-head question on preferred Labor leader, and O’Brien trails his predecessor Matthew Guy by 63-37. The poll was conducted June 12 to 15 from a sample of 1484.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,486 comments on “Essential Research and Redbridge Group Victorian poll”

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  1. Shit. Are we boycotting Amazon AND Tesla now? Wash Post too? Grimes music?

    Is there a Mullumbimby based alternative to these 4 I should know about?

  2. Interesting discussions re Elon Musk. I haven’t watched the videos (I will) but I’ve always been down on Musk for delaying progress on electric vehicles, perhaps by years.

    How? Too easy! Musk kept promising cheap EVs which he never, ever delivered (at least nowhere near the volume or prices he promised). By doing so, he ended up with a “waiting list” of EV buyers in the largest EV markets who therefore didn’t go and buy cheaper and better EV’s made by other companies – because they believed his bullshit. Still do, apparently.

    By doing so, he has effectively held back the market for affordable EVs for years.

    That and the “pedo” comments mean he is not my favorite person.

  3. boerwar : i think you should look more holistically at the greens’ swag of policies before you criticize it piecemeal, if you’re going to have a go at it by extrapolating from a part. i’d be surprised if they aren’t also concerned with issues the author at “the conversation” raises & strive to address them in their broader policy positions. they’re surely not entirely/only about electric vehicles. imo, electric vehicles are flavor of the moment in p.r., vid. shy’s spin in an e.v. on a highway; vid. biden’s spin in an e.v. on a track at the e.v. plant in deerborn, mi; vid. the nsw minister’s photo op in an e.v. plant in sydney as featured in “the conversation” article; vid. the recent announcement by gm/ontario/canada that they’re building the largest e.v. manufacturing plant in north america in toronto, 4500 union jobs, up in 2 years. but, as you know, this fleeting focus de jour doesn’t necessarily mean these parties (including the greens) aren’t looking into the other pertinent, too. just sayin’. -a.v.

  4. Imagine you are the Minister for Christmas Island. What policy settings would you adopt?

    The miners were hanging out for their super/redundancy payments a decade ago; I don’t think much has changed since then.

    Paying them to eliminate crazy ants would be a win-win solution.

  5. Labor and the Coalition teaming up again to destroy the democratic process in the Senate. This is an outright assault on democracy. Labor and the Coalition are afraid of being held accountable. They’re teaming up to ram this disgusting attempt to silence the crossbench through the Senate right now.

  6. Can I refuse the benefits of the Tesla big battery in Hornsdale?

    And what if all those evil Tesla batteries in peoples homes being used as VPPs that help stabilise the grid?

  7. boerwar says:
    Thursday, June 24, 2021 at 5:19 pm

    Tourism. Can’t remember exactly why the Casino shut down but definitely look at getting a Casino Resort up and running again. Other tourism based developments – eco resorts and fishing type stuff. Need to improve the Port but not sure about the feasibility on that.

  8. ee alfred venison, did we meet at monash in the heady days of showing the man what was what

    i believe that i may be the only bludger to have actually read every single word of the greens policy statements. These are available online most greens with whom I enter discussions have never read any of them, let alone all of them

    you would be aware that my primary problem with the greens is that they should be called the reds the reds but they will bastardize and parasitise political parties and front organizations… standard playbook from way back when…

    this dialectic leads directly to the mess of contradictions at the heart of greens political behaviours they are like the marxists who strode forth to lead the peasants to a wonderful new dawn in ancient russia but the peasants were having none of it…

    real environmentalists know what the greens deny and that is that there are simply too many people and that the environment is neither infinite source nor infinite sump what price 1.4 billion evs then

    faffing around with EVs is only one part of the problem and it is no part of any solution for the anthropocene extinction event which is massacring species at a prodigious rate

  9. It seems the crossbench is united against this disgraceful attempt to destroy democracy in the Senate. Lambie is breaking out in tears right now speaking so passionately against it, right after Senator Siewert ripped into Labor and the Coalition.

  10. From now on I am only buying stuff from people I like. Jenny down the road is lovely. I wonder if she has set up an EV factory.

    Jeff over the way helped out with the netball club sheds. I will see if he has a platform for easy and safe payment to unknown peeps with a product I want… across the planet… that also delivers the product in two weeks.

  11. If I were to mark someone on PB for being closest to the Nats (and Joyce), it’d be the person who says the same things and adopts similar positions on many of the things they do.

    For example, the person who:
    – regularly stokes rural-urban divisions as they do,
    – rejects the same renewable energy projects they do,
    – rejects the same lower emission technological solutions that they do,
    – supports the same coal/gas projects they do,
    – wants people to live in their own little bubble and not worry about externalities, and
    – shares the same sloppy thinking/reasoning in their use of hyperbole, exaggerations, wild assumptions, sweeping generalisations and stereotyping.

    That’s just me though. I’m sure other people can make up their own minds without having to be told what to think by condescending, patronising bludgers.

  12. ‘Bucephalus says:
    Thursday, June 24, 2021 at 5:29 pm

    boerwar says:
    Thursday, June 24, 2021 at 5:19 pm

    Tourism. Can’t remember exactly why the Casino shut down but definitely look at getting a Casino Resort up and running again. Other tourism based developments – eco resorts and fishing type stuff. Need to improve the Port but not sure about the feasibility on that.’
    Tourism? No beaches. Crabs in season.
    Casino? See Indonesia and Xi.
    Eco Resort? Bullshit furphy. The carbon miles to CI are worse even than the carbon miles to P1’s misnomered eco paradise.
    Rec fishing? Bloody expensive to wet your line in CI waters.
    Commercial fishing? Already maxed out.

  13. DN
    You left out the bit where some people spot the rank hypocrisy of inner urban yimby greens wanting to dictate to others the environmental goods and services that they HAVE TO donate… to the inner urbs greeens.

  14. This day, the 24th of June, will long be remembered as the day Labor and the Coalition teamed up to attack democracy. What is happening right now in the Senate is absolutely fucking disgraceful. They’re teaming up to change how the Senate works and deny the crossbench the ability to move motions because they don’t like being held accountable. You lot think Dutton shutting down debate in the House was bad, that’s got nothing on this atrocious act. Labor should be ashamed of themselves for supporting the Coalition on this.

  15. SK,

    Settle petal, you can still buy from them if they provide value to you.

    Just remember that they are a pack of rissoles, and not worthy of hero worship.

  16. ‘Simon Katich says:
    Thursday, June 24, 2021 at 5:28 pm

    Can I refuse the benefits of the Tesla big battery in Hornsdale?

    And what if all those evil Tesla batteries in peoples homes being used as VPPs that help stabilise the grid?’
    only devils sweat the details

  17. Simon Katich @ #1267 Thursday, June 24th, 2021 – 5:37 pm

    From now on I am only buying stuff from people I like.

    I have a better suggestion: Only invest in or buy stuff from companies whose ethics you agree with.

    I have lots of money invested in “ethical” corporations. Their growth outpaces the general stock market by a considerable margin.

  18. Boerwar, what were you doing at Monash? A part of the DLP youth wing? If you weren’t a bit red back then, what were you upto? Informing on all the dope smokers 🙂

    A failure by the New South Wales government to implement provisions requiring drivers of air crew to be vaccinated and to wear face masks is to blame for the state’s unfolding coronavirus crisis, says Sky News Political Editor Andrew Clennell. A police investigation into the spread of the Delta variant of the virus is underway and health authorities believe the original source, a Bondi limousine driver, may have contracted the virus in the course of transporting international flight crew. Mr Clennell said the public health orders only require limousine drivers to undergo regular testing for COVID-19. “There appears to have been a major failure here by the NSW Government,” he said. “My information is the public health orders governing this driver meant that there was no requirement for vaccination of that driver and that there was no requirement for that driver to even wear a mask. “So we’ve got severe restrictions in Sydney, an inability for people to travel on school holidays, border closures throughout the country because the NSW government, it seems, did not have a public health order in place requiring this driver to wear a mask or be vaccinated. “Will the driver be fined? I dare say not given those requirements were not even given in the public health order.”

    Gladys will be looking for a scapegoat on this.. a solid gold plated one

  20. Comment on today’s Guardian Blog. Very well written

    A “journalist” in a Melbourne paper has written an egregiously self serving opinion piece “Why we should all hope that Sydney succeeds.” The thesis was that if Sydney succeeds with its ‘stay open at any cost’ plan then that will provide a template for all the states to do the same. Of course what he really meant, was that it would provide the justification for the media attacks on the Andrews government over the last 12 months, including for the latest lockdown. The piece ignored the fact that Sydney has been in lockdown or part lockdown numerous times since the pandemic began. The first time was when all of Australia was locked. The virus was rampant in Australia for two reasons. First, Morrison refused to close our borders to the US and other countries until after Trump acted. He waited for the world’s number one laggard to move. We closed our borders 6 hours after Trump. Too late. Second, the Ruby Princess debacle – for which no-one was ever held accountable – but which cost the country a trillion dollar debt with a full lock down. The “Cancelling Xmas” lockdown in Sydney went on for 6 weeks, luckily largely confined to the northern beaches which has one road access. Had it occurred in Parramatta things would have been much different.

    Here’s the problem. There is no set road map for tackling an outbreak. It depends on the circumstances, that is, a pandemic is a stochastic process. If someone is infected who is older, who lives alone, rarely socialises , doesn’t shop at big centres or travel widely, and got tested as soon as the first symptoms appeared then a breakout is unlikely. If, on the other hand, the person infected is younger, has a family with four children, has live in grandparents, works as a security guard, has a wife who works in aged care on call, has relatives to the house regularly, attends church functions on the weekend with big social gather gatherings afterward and who waited for a week after symptoms appeared or was asymptomatic, then a breakout is on the cards.

    The idea that the second wave in Victoria was caused by somebody deciding to use private security guards in HQ rather than ADF personnel, still being peddled by the Liberal Party and their media allies, gives no credence at all to the nature of the virus or a pandemic. We now know that every state used, and other than Victoria, still uses private security guards. We know that the ADF told Victoria when they were re-setting the HQ program, “We don’t do security guard work.” Anyone with a working knowledge of the Constitution or the Defence Act would know why. It’s why private security is used to guard army bases and not soldiers.

    The Victoria authorities did make, what turned out to be, a wrong decision last year. When the first cases appeared, having already widely spread, they did not go to lockdown, instead being overly influenced by the “stay open” lobby. Post code lockdowns were a waste of time unless you have the luck of geographical isolation. An outbreak on Phillip Island would be as easy to contain as one on the northern beaches in Sydney, with the bridge at San Remo being the equivalent of The Spit. But it’s always easier in hindsight. Almost all of the deaths were in privately owned, federally “regulated” ages care settings. Despite the example of Newmarch House in the first wave, the federal government did nothing to change the settings in their “regulated” aged care setting. For the Liberals, regulation is just “red tape”. There were no deaths in the state run aged care settings in Victoria which proves the point that it wasn’t because there was virus in the society that led to the deaths but the preparedness of the settings.

    I hope that no-one else in Sydney gets infected. Businesses are already closing without a formal shutdown as people clear the streets. But whatever happens, trying to use one outbreak as a justification for a year’s worth of politically motivated, uniformed comment, is a fool’s errand.

  21. Are EVs a best solution? Of course not, but Australia has spent the last decade rejecting personal responsibility and accountability regarding consumption and emissions, rejecting fairer consumer/polluter pays solutions, and is apparently now unified in yapping on about “technological solutions”.

    Well, we have to work with what’s there, and if that means directly and inefficiently targetting specific solutions* with (a) side effects and which (b) unfairly advantage people with access to them, then let’s go with that. Why not. Obviously people won’t do anything for vague notions as “the future of the planet” and need to see a direct, personal benefit.

    Technological solutions, by their nature, often come with side effects (mining resources, manufacturing, waste, etc. etc), and typically advantage those who can directly access them or profit from them over those who can’t (though of course we all benefit from reduced emissions).

    * Such as paying farmers to grow trees for the wombats to admire, and hipsters to switch to EVs for their inner urban cruising.

  22. I mean, I love the Nats claiming that farmers have been doing all the heavy lifting.

    What was all that nonsense about $100 roasts then? Except to tell the *consumers* mostly living in *cities* that those consumers would be funding emissions reductions. Why did they reject those solutions (which would have had changing agricultural practices fairly funded by urban consumers) only to now complain that they’re being hung out to dry?

    Do the Nats bother to think things through at all?

  23. ‘DisplayName says:
    Thursday, June 24, 2021 at 5:52 pm

    Are EVs a best solution? Of course not, but…’ the greens pollies are stunting them.

  24. I have a better suggestion: Only invest in or buy stuff from companies whose ethics you agree with.
    All of them? I have a lot of ethics and I don’t expect or demand everyone share them. As in so many things it is a compromise. People are different just like Societies are different. One persons morality/goodness must be looked at holistically – not necessarily in direct comparison to oneself.

    There was a time before Amazon where we had distributors who would skim huge amounts of cream of selling products they had exclusive rights to import into Australia (still happens with many products). Many of them were predatory by nature – so not just to customers but staff as well as the environment etc and would make Bezos look an angel.

    that doesn’t mean I worship Bezos. His power can’t be trusted. His workplaces are just the tip of that. But change makers don’t often come packaged in pleasant wrapping.

  25. How new someone must be to get all in a lather over pollies stunting.

    You’d think they’d never seen a pollie pull a stunt before.

  26. I suppose if you are going to write a partisan piece of specious shit, you may as well kick it off with a big fat lie. NSW does not have a ‘stay open at any cost’ policy.

  27. I can’t imagine why Q&A imagines that Susan Alberti’s attack makes a good promo. Unless it’s her football connection.

  28. Jeff Bezos bought The Washington Post and endured everything Trump threw at him so as to underwrite the sort of investigative journalism that held Trump to account and exposed his malfeasance.

    I give him big props for that.

    I just wish he’d treat his warehouse workforce better.

  29. As a lurker, this website was more enjoyable before the green propaganda provider firefox came back.

    This place becomes really boring and unenjoyable when there isn’t a current election or some other major event to talk about. It descends into the same circular arguments, attention-seeking and acrimony. Sometimes one can log off this place for a week or two and come back to the exact same argument, led by the exact same group of megaphones, attention-seekers and armchair experts.

    Once the election is called or some actual interesting running story happens, it’s like a new inflow of water into a stagnant creek and things get interesting again. Until then, you just try to find something interesting to talk about and hope it doesn’t get drowned in the usual noise.

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