Essential Research: leadership ratings and COVID management

Downward trends continue for federal leaders’ ratings and perceptions of COVID-19 management at both federal and state level.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which finds Scott Morrison’s approval down one to 57% and disapproval up four to 36%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively steady on 39% and up one to 36%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 48-28, narrowing from 50-24 last time. The pollster’s regular question on the handling of COVID-19 gives the federal government its weakest result since the beginnings of the series in March last year, with its good rating down five to 53% and its poor rating up six to 24%.

The trends for the leadership ratings are COVID-19 questions are worth noting: the former can be found at BludgerTrack, which no longer registers a recovery for Morrison after his slump in May, but also now records Anthony Albanese in net negative territory for the first time; the latter is shown in the chart of the Essential Research series below.

However, it’s not just the federal government that Essential Research finds to be down from its earlier peaks on COVID-19 management: the Victorian government’s good rating is down 15% amid the state’s latest lockdown to 48% (the federal government is also down 15% in the state, to 42%), and recent results for the other state governments are all down around six points from where they were at the start of the year, ranging from 65% for Queensland to 75% for Western Australia.

The poll also finds 40% view the federal government less favourably than they did a year ago, compared with 25% for more favourably and 35% for the same; 43% of the view that the vaccine rollout is being conducted efficiently (unchanged since April), 67% that is is being done safely (up four) and 54% that it will be effective at stopping the virus (up two); and 55% agreeing the Victorian government is raising valid concerns about the federal government’s vaccine rollout performance compared with 45% for the alternative option that it is seeking to shift the blame.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1104. This being Essential’s first result since the launch of the Australian Polling Council code of conduct, it comes with a separate disclosure statement containing detail of the poll’s response options for voting intention, from which we learn that state and Senate voting intention questions were included even if we may never see the results, and that the poll is weighted for age, gender, location and party identification (a somewhat contentious practice in the latter case).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,336 comments on “Essential Research: leadership ratings and COVID management”

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  1. Happy to see this. Testing rates are not high. One explanation. We had wild and woolly weather in Victoria over past 36 hours,and it did affect testing.
    Today it is foggy and settled. Hope it stays settled

    VicGovDH
    @VicGovDH
    Reported yesterday: 0 new local cases and 1 new case acquired overseas (currently in HQ).
    – 20,752 vaccine doses were administered
    – 17,604 test results were received

    More later: https://dhhs.vic.gov.au/victorian-coronavirus-covid-19-data

    #COVID19VicData #COVID19Vic

  2. Gee, the privatized Ausnet electricity network in VIC is hardly covering itself in glory.
    Up to 5 days to restore power to some areas.
    This what happens when you privatize: they’re good at collecting rents, useless at anything else. Obviously nowhere near enough maintenance staff for the job.

    Renationalise the useless pricks, and do it yesterday.

  3. mundo @ #521 Friday, June 11th, 2021 – 8:55 am

    Ven @ #983 Friday, June 11th, 2021 – 8:37 am

    “In quite a devastating contribution, Alan Kohler says that Australia is placing its recovery hopes on the trays of utes — and it’s idiotic.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2021/06/11/utes-tax-write-offs/

    “while the rest of the world is encouraging greater take-up of electric vehicles to help meet demanding carbon emission targets, Australia is spending a fortune to encourage the take-up of diesel vehicles.

    In May there were close to 80,000 utes and SUVs sold in Australia, close to double the number of last May, four times the number of passenger cars sold and four times the total number of electric cars sold in Australia in the past 10 years. Just in May.”

    It looks like more Aussies want to buy petrol and diesel guzzlers than ever before. Why bother about carbon emmisions and climate change ? No wonder Morrison is popular.

    Does anyone in the federal Labor party read?

    And if you read the article, not just someone’s comment about it, you will note that Alan Kohler says that while the Tradies might have that new car smell in their nostrils and vote accordingly this election, by the next one they are going to be marooned on a desert island with their utes and Scotty from Marketing as the rest of the world punishes us relentlessly and the world moves away from what we are trying to sell them. Which means that those same Tradies won’t be getting as much work from cashed up Aussies.

    Winter IS Coming for the Morrison government.

  4. And if you read the article, not just someone’s comment about it, you will note that Alan Kohler says that while the Tradies might have that new car smell in their nostrils and vote accordingly this election, by the next one they are going to be marooned on a desert island with their utes

    Antipodean Cuba.

  5. Socrates

    Several government owned companies that run coal power plants are also building wind farms in the same region

    A mini version of what the Danes did when they saw the writing on the wall for their big shipbuilding industry. With lots of support from the government the huge Danish wind turbine design/construction industry was born. Instead of ghost towns when the shipyards closed there was an industry that used many of the skills the workers/engineers already had.

  6. And for the MH370 buffs, the antipode of the Burmuda triangle is about where they thought the plane ditched into the Indian Ocean.

    Or is it the Southern Ocean?

  7. Poroti

    Yes that is a very relevant example.

    Timing is also important. If you do it gradually, with the wind farm operating for 2-3 years before the coal plant shuts, you give people time to learn new skills and make the switch.

    Labor in SA was approving and building wind farms for almost ten years before the coal plant was switched off in 2016.

  8. poroti @ #1006 Friday, June 11th, 2021 – 9:00 am

    Socrates

    Several government owned companies that run coal power plants are also building wind farms in the same region

    A mini version of what the Danes did when they saw the writing on the wall for their big shipbuilding industry. With lots of support from the government the huge Danish wind turbine design/construction industry was born. Instead of ghost towns when the shipyards closed there was an industry that used many of the skills the workers/engineers already had.

    Yeah, but we have the sheeps back. And meat pies. The footy. And the Anzacs. No needless anxiety here mate. Dont need to think too much. It’s all good.

  9. And for the MH370 buffs, the antipode of the Burmuda triangle is about where they thought the plane ditched into the Indian Ocean.

    Or is it the Southern Ocean?

    The southern part of the Indian Ocean.

  10. It is interesting to watch Estimates to see how many really struggling broadband Zoom connections there. Thankyou Malcolm!

  11. Jaeger @ #1011 Friday, June 11th, 2021 – 9:11 am

    And for the MH370 buffs, the antipode of the Burmuda triangle is about where they thought the plane ditched into the Indian Ocean.

    Or is it the Southern Ocean?

    The southern part of the Indian Ocean.

    I have never felt comfortable with the idea that when I take a dip off the coast of South Australia I am swimming in the Indian Ocean.

    I have a distant memory of travelling from Perth to Albany along the coast there was coastal point with a signpost that said ‘to the right is the Indian Ocean and the left is the Southern Ocean’ or wtte.

  12. In Australia, cartographical authorities define the Southern Ocean as including the entire body of water between Antarctica and the south coasts of Australia and New Zealand, and up to 60°S elsewhere. Coastal maps of Tasmania and South Australia label the sea areas as Southern Ocean and Cape Leeuwin in Western Australia is described as the point where the Indian and Southern Oceans meet.

  13. Many maps in South Australia will refer to it as the Southern Ocean. Locals tell me it was deemed so when the great free settler (NO CONVICTS!) state of South Australia was pronounced.

  14. Scott Morrison’s on a quest to be a Joe Biden ‘bestie’

    Scott Morrison, who was embraced as a “bro” by Donald Trump, now seeks to become one of Joe Biden’s besties.

    Making this transition neatly is probably the most important aspect of Morrison’s trip to the G7 summit, at which Australia is one of several guest countries.

    A feature of the weekend in Cornwall will be the Prime Minister’s bilateral with the President, with a show of bonhomie for the cameras and some shrewd mutual assessment in private.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-11/scott-morrison-joe-biden-g7-forum/100207010

    Photo op and talkfest time! This should be interesting…

  15. Hunt would be pissed with Dutton for commenting on matters (C.19) outside his portfolio but lacks the fortitude to put him in his place, as do most other ministers. I can’t help but think that inside Cabinet, Dutton’s in charge, even when Morrison’s not gallivanting overseas, make an ass of himself. And I daresay Dutton’s math has improved since the last coup.

  16. Few Australians think that the Indian Ocean meets the Great Australian Bight, Western Victoria and Tasmania. It’s way over the other side next to WA.

  17. zoomster says:
    Friday, June 11, 2021 at 8:27 am
    C@

    ‘You couldn’t pay me to go to China.’

    I’m interested in why you have this level of hatred for the country.

    We went there for ten days, in the midst of their winter. Just the two of us (eldest son and myself), no package tour. Stayed mostly in Beijing with a dash up to Harbin.

    Loved it.

    I’d really like to go to China again. But, as a “sanctioned” person, I can’t. China is a really interesting country…marvellous people, fascinating arts, glorious complexity and energy. I miss going there. I guess many years will pass before the sanctions are removed. Since I’m a good deal older than President Xi, I suppose I will never be able to travel to China again.

  18. “Winter IS Coming for the Morrison government.”

    Sure is. It’s coming for Labor too, considering they’re still backing coal beyond 2050 and don’t take climate change seriously enough. Not even Arya could save the duopoly from themselves.

  19. “Few Australians think that the Indian Ocean meets the Great Australian Bight, Western Victoria and Tasmania. It’s way over the other side next to WA.”

    Yes in W.A. we have a proper oceans, and not mere seas like our poor East Coast cousins. 🙂

  20. Green Machine says:
    Friday, June 11, 2021 at 10:13 am
    “Winter IS Coming for the Morrison government.”

    Sure is. It’s coming for Labor too, considering they’re still backing coal beyond 2050 and don’t take climate change seriously enough. Not even Arya could save the duopoly from themselves.

    For as long as Labor are thought to be dappled green, they will continue to lose elections. The Green tinge is electoral ratsak for those voters LAbor must attract if they’re to win again. The more Labor can do to shed Green language and values from their messaging, the better they will do.

    The Greens know this of course. They use it to their advantage.

  21. Yesterday a number of sites in NSW had either their all-time coldest day, all time coldest June day or their coldest day in decades. These included Sydney (max 10.4°, coldest in 37 years), Bankstown (9.6°, equal all time coldest max – 53 years) and Penrith (8.3° – smashed old all time record by nearly 3°, but only 27 years of record).

    Cold records still happen. In recent years heat records greatly outnumber them, by up to 12:1 in one study: https://science.anu.edu.au/news-events/news/sure-winter-felt-chilly-australia-setting-new-heat-records-12-times-rate-cold-ones

  22. “You couldn’t pay me to go to China.”

    Crazy. Why so much hate? It’s a beautiful country. Even with all their problems, I wouldn’t rule out going back to America again someday.

    The America vs China crap that goes on here is really getting out of hand. Some of you seriously need to get a grip.

  23. The Southern Ocean is the only ocean that has currents that cross all lines of longitude.

    It is also the reason that we have such relatively mild winters in Australia.

  24. Green Machine says:
    Friday, June 11, 2021 at 10:25 am
    “You couldn’t pay me to go to China.”

    Crazy. Why so much hate?

    Hate is the correct term. C@t is overtly and seemingly proudly Sino-phobic. In this, they resemble you, who are overtly and proudly Labor-phobic.

  25. It isn’t Poll Bludger if someone isn’t calling someone else a “Racist”.

    Variety being the spice of life, we occasionally get “Trumpist”, “Coalist”, “Misogynist”, “Rapist”, “Pedarist” and “Bullshit Artist” added to the basic charge.

    Meanwhile, while everyone here is accusing everyone else of being some kind of “-ist”, the Forces Of Darkness loot the Treasury on behalf of their maaaates, arrange sinecures for loyal followers, pander to donors and their old boy networks, and otherwise go about their crooked, thieving ways, while holding their sides in from laughing at how easy it is to bait the Outrage Industry into completely missing the point because they’re too busy fighting among themselves.

  26. “In this, they resemble you, who are overtly and proudly Labor-phobic.”

    Incorrect. I am proudly pro-progressive. There are only two parties who have ever had the honour of receiving my first preference; the Greens and Labor. I actually voted for Labor first but they lost me by continuing their lurch to the right. At the same time, I’ve become more firmly of the left as time goes on, so Labor just isn’t a good fit for me anymore.

  27. Mavis, Poroti:

    Can’t decide whether I am more concerned at having McCormack as acting PM during Morrison’s absence or Dutton’s media self-promotion. Will we see a competition between the latter and Frydenberg?

  28. Good Morning

    I have to agree with Green Machine on the America v China crap.

    I made a factual observation to Cat about America’s military superiority and boy did it set off a bout of you are delusional let’s start measuring dicks from the boys itching for war talk.

    The reality is because China is trying to play catch up there won’t be war. Morrison and his war hawks talking up war for domestic political purposes is putting party before country.

    They want their Khaki election stuff the national interest.

  29. poroti @ #524 Friday, June 11th, 2021 – 9:04 am

    Tricot at 8:55 am

    Morrison’s trip to the UK – to be an “observer” – will be blown up by the Liberal/Murdoch/Stokes press as some kind of star role for their boy.

    They have been doing so for days. Scotty to ‘warn’ G7 about taking emissions action, Scotty to ‘dig in’ on the issue, Scotty “In a rallying cry to democratic allies ” and giving a “thinly veiled message to China” as Scotty heads to the G7 meeting.

    I’m waiting for, ‘They Treat Scotty like Ivanka Trump’ 😀

  30. Green Machine
    “At the same time, I’ve become more firmly of the left as time goes on, so Labor just isn’t a good fit for me anymore.”

    Don’t worry, you’ll come back.

  31. “Don’t worry, you’ll come back.”

    Only if Labor comes back to the left, which seems quite unlikely at this point. I’m very happy with the Greens and it would take quite a lot to change that. They are the party that most closely represents my values and are the voice of progressives in Australia.

  32. Just had a text from local rural Victoria medical centre that due to supply problems they have had to cancel scheduled 2nd AZ jab on 15th June

    Thank You Hunt : (

  33. “I’m waiting for, ‘They Treat Scotty like Ivanka Trump’”

    I’m waiting for the cuddle for the cameras! I can see it already; Biden grinning like a cheshire cat, Morrison breaking out the smirk, as they grip each other’s paws in loving embrace. Should give all their supporters the warm and fuzzies!

  34. Sound grab of Morrison on commercial radio this morning. Announcing a travel bubble between Singapore and Australia ‘when enough people are vaccinated’.

    So it won’t be happening this year then.

  35. Scrott getting a little gun shy when it it comes to targets and commitments ? All those exhortations to get out from under the doona and for States to open up but when it gets the pointy end it is ‘Brave Sir Robin’ staying under his doona.

    Scott Morrison says there is no magic number of vaccinations that will trigger Australia opening its international borders.The Prime Minister is refusing to set a target date…………

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/coronavirus/2021/06/10/vaccination-australia-border-morrison/

  36. What’s the Red Machine on about today? Hurling peace studies at Xi?

    Tell that to the Tibetans, the people from Hong Kong, the Taiwanese, the Japanese, the Vietnamese, the people from the Philippines, the people from Malaysia.

  37. I imagine the photo op will look something like this…

    Or this…

    Just can’t wipe that grin of Biden’s face! Neither Xi or Putin smirk like Scomo though, so I guess we’ll just have to wait for the real thing.

  38. Up pops one of the major dick measurers with a bore let’s go to war contribution.

    Well Mr BW Japan which has a right wing conservative government is far more aware of the military power of China than Australia and is not using the Khaki election talk to drum up votes.

    ____________________

    @billshorten tweets

    Robodebt class action judgement being handed down now.

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