Two items to relate from New South Wales: tomorrow’s by-election in Upper Hunter and the first results from Resolve Strategic’s new state polling series, which the Sydney Morning Herald sneaked out on Wednesday without me noticing.
To start with the former, the by-election was initiated after the resignation of Nationals member Michael Johnsen, whose demise you can read all about in my by-election guide. Naturally, this site will be all over the count tomorrow night and beyond — my live results facility is ready to go and can be viewed here (if the format looks screwy at first, try a hard refresh). As you can see, this will feature neat displays of vote totals, booth results and swings, projections and, in an exciting new-ish feature, a map-based display of booth results at the bottom of the page.
The by-election event is fraught with significance for a number of reasons:
• The Nationals retained the seat at the March 2019 election by a margin of 2.6%, well within the range of a typical mid-term by-election swing. However, the clear pattern of strong electoral performances for incumbents since the onset of COVID-19 suggests the hurdle will be quite a bit harder to clear than the margin applies. This is awkward for Labor leader Jodi McKay, who is struggling with weak poll ratings and poor name recognition (more on that below).
• The parliamentary majority of the Berejiklian government is on the line — or at least it was until last Thursday, when Gareth Ward’s move to the cross bench ensured the government’s minority status come what may tomorrow, at least for the time being. The Coalition cleared the hurdle by two seats at the March 2019 election, winning 48 out of 93 seats, but one of these was lost when John Sidoti, the Liberal member for Drummoyne, moved to the cross bench in March pending an ICAC inquiry into his property dealings.
• As noted, the government is down another number owing to sexual violence allegations against Gareth Ward, who holds the seat of Kiama for the Liberals on a margin of 12.0%. The Sydney Morning Herald reports the Liberals are waiting on tomorrow’s result before “counselling” Ward about his future, the upshot of which may be another by-election.
• The Hunter region and its distinctive local economic and political concerns rose to the surface of national politics this week after the Morrison government announced it would bankroll a gas-fired power plant in Kurri Kurri as part of a $600 million play for the corresponding federal seat of Hunter, where Labor member Joel Fitzgibbon’s margin was sliced from 12.5% to 3.0% at the 2019 election, with One Nation securing 21.6% of the vote.
Monday’s Daily Telegraph had a YouGov poll of 400 respondents conducted last Tuesday to Thursday which, notwithstanding its small sample and wide error margin, pointed to a highly complicated contest arising from a field of 13 candidates. The primary vote numbers were Nationals 25% (34.0% at the 2019 election), Labor 23% (28.7%), Shooters Fishers and Farmers 16% (22.0%), One Nation 11% (did not contest), the Greens 6% (4.8%) and independent Kirsty O’Connell on 6%, despite the latter having received endorsement and $3000 in campaign funding from Malcolm Turnbull, who owns a farming property in the electorate. This panned out to a 51-49 lead for the Nationals over Labor on two-party preferred, although the primary vote numbers suggest it’s far from clear which two candidates will make the final count.
On to the Resolve Strategic poll in the Sydney Morning Herald, which had the Coalition on 44% of the primary vote (41.6% at the last election), Labor on 28% (33.3%), the Greens on 12% (9.6%), Shooters on 4% (3.5%), and independents and others 12% (12.0%). As with the federal polling from this series, no two-party preferred is provided, but it can be conservatively estimated that this would amount to a 4% swing to the Coalition, which won the election with a fairly handy break of 52.0-48.0. Gladys Berejiklian was credited with a commanding 57-17 lead over Jodi McKay as preferred premier.
The Sydney Morning Herald report says the poll was conducted from “1228 voters between mid-April and May”. I believe the deal here is that it combined responses from the surveys that have produced the pollster’s first two monthly results, which have been conducted mostly online, with a small cohort of phone polling add to the April survey.
Gee, Labor must win a Nationals seat. How could I miss that as a test of…Labor? 🙄
Jeff and Jodi with the HTV today…
Jeff must love being photobombed by Jodi. That’s gonna help!!!
If looks could kill
Moderate @ #53 Saturday, May 22nd, 2021 – 9:32 am
If she wasn’t there you’d attempt to piss all over that as well.
Jeff should quit politics if doesn’t like where he is.
By those eyes says everything.
From interstate Jodi McKay looks pretty ordinary. I think the identikit successful ALP Opposition leader is some kind of antipodean Tony Blair (or Antonia Blair) i.e. early 40s, dynamic, presentable. I don’t know whether the NSW ALP has such a person in its caucus.
Amazing how a seat Labor haven’t held in forever is ‘a test for Labor and the Labor leader, Jodi Mackay’. 🙄
“ If looks could kill”
Nah, that’s just his smiley face.
You seem very invested in this moderate. Gotta hope the 9Faix-LNP narrative holds …
Hey C@T – look at the facts:
1. Member resigns in disgrace
2. 10 1/2 year old govt
3. 2.5% margin in seat
4.ALP picks high profile and much loved CFMMEU candidate.
5. Seat wholly within federal seat of Hunter.
Tell me it’s not a test for Jodi. I’d reckon Chris Minns thinks it is!!!
“ Amazing how a seat Labor haven’t held in forever is ‘a test for Labor and the Labor leader, Jodi Mackay’. ”
Gotta love that narrative.
93 years since the last Labor member. The two National MPs before Johnsen never getting a primary vote less than 49%. 2PP typically over 60% for the Nats. Wall to wall ‘Daily Berijiklian’ coverage
… but of course. A test for Labor …
“ I’d reckon Chris Minns thinks it is!!!”
Of course Chrissy thinks it is. He also thinks he’s got 2GB and 9-faux generally covered. After all, Alex Smith has told him how much she loves him.
It will be a rude shock when he wakes up on his first day as opposition leader to find out that all his best buddies in the media think he is the anti-christ … and generally a bit of a dill. All that media access he gets now? Gone. Alex will just recycle her anti Jodi stories as anti Minns stories. Add in ‘sexism’ cause he rolled a woman. Rinse and repeat until 2023.
Mod Lib,
Chris Minns appears to have a lot of support in Liberal Party ranks.
If Dave the Developer from Lend Lease doesn’t hold this one, Chris Minns may have the numbers to replace Old Gladys as Liberal Party leader.
“5. Seat wholly within federal seat of Hunter.”
Except for the bits that ain’t, and are in Lyne, Calare and New England. It’s also missing the Labor Heartland end of the Hunter electorate as well.
So, except for ‘facts’, you’re spot on.
Gotta love that narrative, but how’s that going to work out for Gladbags, Bruz and all that investment that Pete Costello has made in polishing the corrupt turf that is this government if the narrative … isn’t enough?
No wonder you are shitting bricks moderate.
Hey Earlwood what’s the word from the war room old son. Still counting on those wins in Ryde, Monaro, South Coast and Kiama.
You are a dribbler mate. 88% of UH is in Hunter. Never let the facts get in the way.
And sure if it makes your time in the war room feel better, I’m shitting bricks at a Gladys v Jodi match up!!
Someone call a wambulance. I seem to have triggered moderate.
“88% of Upper Hunter is in Hunter”.
Even you must realise that acres of land with only cows and horses on them don’t vote. The Labor voting humans in the lower – SE corner of Hunter are absent from the state electorate of Upper Hunter. Whereas a lot of NP positive voters from Cowper, New England etc ARE in the state seat.
I’m not sure who you are trying to convince on Bludger with your post truth historical rewrite of the electorate, but I think you are sounding very desperate and perhaps in need of a bit of help. R U OK, mate?
Simple conclusion: McKay can’t land a glove on Gladys, whereas Chris Minns would give her a tougher fight in 2023! The energy Minns brings to his media appearances and his social media posts, that’d be replicated if he was leader, whereas McKay is invisible, no media cut through whatsoever! And a pretty much invisible shadow front bench, with 2 or 3 exceptions!
It’s ok EVAN – Jodi’s got Earlwood on staff. The war room is all ready for 2023. He’s starting with Vaucluse and Wahroonga – Thats his winnable column!!
You keep goading me about the war room.
That’s a fair cop sport. I’m not campaigning today, let alone siting I’m head office. However I imagine that the ALP political boffins are calling the byelection like I am thinking it will actually pan out – the NP will scrape back in with a primary vote somewhere around 30% but with the rest of the vote split and a high exhaust rate helping them hold on.
Moderate will cheer. He’ll say that I didn’t know what I was talking about. His buddies in the media will pile on Jodi. Blah blah.
That’s what I think will happen. So it seems … a little odd … that moderate is so triggered: rabidly wigging out in fact over the mere possibility that Labor might achieve the seemingly impossible and turf the National Party from a seat that has been a jewel in their crown for the past 93 years.
Perhaps with little wonder. Gladbags is consigned to minority government: ‘the best ever’ Premier (according the the MSM) the gal that saved Australia (Coorey) with the best Covid response and management of all (every body apparently) can’t even save her own government against Ms 17%. … no wonder moderate is going troppo.
Singleton and Muswellbrook are the local government areas that lie within both the federal seat of Hunter and state seat of Upper Hunter. They represent half of the population of Upper Hunter. The other half of voters in Upper Hunter are not in the federal seat of Hunter.
“ Simple conclusion: McKay can’t land a glove on Gladys, whereas Chris Minns would give her a tougher fight in 2023! The energy Minns brings to his media appearances and his social media posts, that’d be replicated if he was leader, whereas McKay is invisible, no media cut through whatsoever! And a pretty much invisible shadow front bench, with 2 or 3 exceptions!”
So, you’re impressed by spivs. Can I interest you in a used car? Lots of energy under the bonnet mate. A realty blewty.
Oh well, my prediction is the Nationals retain Upper Hunter with a small swing to them!
A-E why such hostility to Minns ? He’s photogenic and pragmatic – what’s not to like ?
He may even be lucky?
I just don’t like him L’arse.
He reeks of spiv- his whole back story is confected. He has an Ivy League post graduate degree … that his best buddy in the whole world – Jamie Clements – probably arranged for the party to pay for. Other than a dalliance as a firefighter (it didn’t last. Odd) he’s had a political silver spoon in his mouth since High School.
As a MP he has been assiduously undermining each of the last three leaders and frankly has a reputation for being lazy.
He has cleaved to the enemy since mid 2019 to upturn a very clear and decisive expression of party democracy and is deluded enough to think that 9Faix are giving him a ‘fair go’ because he has ‘talent’ when it is blatantly obvious that they are simply using him to undermine Labor.
I fucking hate him for some reason.
This cartoon linked by BK in Dawn Patrol is a neat summary of the situation of Gladys and her Government:
A by-election in these circumstances should be a rout for the governing party but it looks like Gladys is just going to sail through.
Strange c@t is very hostile to Minns too!
If Jodie goes you’ll all have to discover how wonderful Minns is presumably.
Will he rehabilitate Clements too ?
I always thought the Hunter region was Labor heartland!!! am I missing something?
This is the Upper Hunter, which is basically rural. It’s the lower Hunter (Newcastle, Maitland, Cessnock areas) that’s traditional Labor territory.
https://www.elections.nsw.gov.au/NSWEC/media/NSWEC/Maps/2015%20District%20-%20outline/electoral_maps_A5_final_UPPER_HUNTER.pdf
Hey Moderarse, go back to your Spiv Evangelical Party, old son.
I was curious to see whether the Global Times had focused on the Upper Hunter by-election. Nope.
The nearest I could get was some war drum beating. Observers should note that when the West beats a war drum it is baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaad. But that when China beats the wardrum, which it does on a daily basis, it is meeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeh.
‘PLA fighter bombers cross Taiwan Straits ‘middle line,’ deter secessionists following US warship transit: analysts’
My prediction is that following a shambles of an exhausted vote routine and a historically low turnout, Labor will get across the line thanks to the preferences of a whole lot of people who would prefer anything else.
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202105/1224124.shtml
Not one, but two Pro Gladys stories today from BFF Alex Smith in the Daily Berijiklian! Pete Costello: pay that woman a bonus: for services above and beyond!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/gladys-berejiklian-has-her-eye-on-history-at-upper-hunter-byelection-20210522-p57u6w.html#comments
Lars Von Trier @ #75 Saturday, May 22nd, 2021 – 12:20 pm
Thank you for belling the cat as to why Chris Minns should not be allowed within a bull’s roar of the NSW ALP leadership. Couldn’t have put it better myself. I also believe Bob Nanva is not that stupid.
“C@tmommasays:
Saturday, May 22, 2021 at 9:21 am
Gee, Labor must win a Nationals seat. How could I miss that as a test of…Labor?
”
Bob Carr won Camden, Menai (in all elections he won) and even Clarence(in by-election).
Labor wouldn’t even dream of winning them now. They are now safe Lib seats. I think Meni and Clarence are redrawn and maybe even names are changed
“C@tmommasays:
Saturday, May 22, 2021 at 9:46 am
Moderate @ #53 Saturday, May 22nd, 2021 – 9:32 am
Jeff must love being photobombed by Jodi. That’s gonna help!!!
If she wasn’t there you’d attempt to piss all over that as well.”
True. Tales I win and Heads you loose. 🙂
“Historyintimesays:
Saturday, May 22, 2021 at 10:18 am
From interstate Jodi McKay looks pretty ordinary. I think the identikit successful ALP Opposition leader is some kind of antipodean Tony Blair (or Antonia Blair) i.e. early 40s, dynamic, presentable. I don’t know whether the NSW ALP has such a person in its caucus.”
No they don’t. Maybe they can ask Carr to run from outside like Campbell Newman. 🙂
Ven,
Menai was renamed Holsworthy. On the current boundaries Labor requires a 3.3% swing to win.
The boundaries of Clarence haven’t change much since 1981, when Grafton, from the old seat of Clarence, was combined with the former seat of Casino.
Labor’s Don Day held Casino from 1971 until it was abolished. He then held Clarence until 1984 when he retired. Harry Woods held Clarence for Labor from 1996 to 2003. This seat only changes party when the sitting member retires.
Camden is a traditional swing seat. It is usually held by the party that wins government. On the current boundaries, Labor requires a swing of 7.6% to win. In 2019, the Liberal vote fell by 18.34%!
The voters will eventually get sick of the incompetence and corruption. Gladys and co will go the way of St Robin Askin and Kermit Greiner.
Given the large field of candidates and that the Nationals are starting from a low 34% primary vote in 2019, tonight’s winner could have a very low PV.
Does anyone know what the record is for the lowest primary vote for a NSW Lower House winning candidate ever?
Ven @ #82 Saturday, May 22nd, 2021 – 2:12 pm
This is a traditionally Nationals seat and has just had some mighty expensive pork, to the tune of $600 Million dangled in front of the voters. Scott has bought this seat for Gladys and Bruz.
IoR,
In 1999, Independent Tony McGrane won Dubbo with 22.68% of the primary vote.
I suspect that there are some lower than that.
wonder who will be first out of the gates with the internal pile on if Jodie loses tonight? Gerard Hayes seems likely?
So, if the dark side prevail, Gareth goes. But if the seat falls Gareth stays, says everything about the Tories . Guilty? Innocent? Doesn’t matter. Down here we consider this win win.
Outside left says:
Saturday, May 22, 2021 at 4:05 pm
So, if the dark side prevail, Gareth goes. But if the seat falls Gareth stays, says everything about the Tories . Guilty? Innocent? Doesn’t matter. Down here we consider this win win.
____________________
Perhaps Labor should move a vote of no confidence ? Perversely it won’t.
Jodi Mckay is boring and uninspiring. I’m sorry but it’s true. How she managed to become Labor leader is beyond me. I guess this is NSW Labor we are talking about though, the talent is a bit thin on the ground. I guess that’s why their candidate for this by-election is terrible too. But if these two are the face of modern Labor then they really are in dire straits. Where are the fresh faces and fresh ideas?
As someone who lives just over the border in Canberra and wants to see the Liberal government gone in NSW, it would be wonderful if Labor got their act together and had a real cleanout. Get some fresh talent in there in time for the next election. Gladys doesn’t deserve another term.
‘Green Machine says:
Saturday, May 22, 2021 at 4:15 pm
As someone who lives just over the border in Canberra and wants to see the Liberal government gone in NSW, it would be wonderful if Labor got their act together and had a real cleanout. Get some fresh talent in there in time for the next election. Gladys doesn’t deserve another term.’
—————————————————————-
Second rate concern trolling.
Boerwar,
You can’t possibly think that Gladys and her Liberals deserve another go, can you? They’re absolutely terrible! The only thing keeping them in office is the completely useless NSW Labor Party. If they get their act together they should be able to easily get rid of Gladys and her government.
Green Machine= concern troll.
Actually, Green Machine= mediocre concern troll.
Lars Von Trier @ #89 Saturday, May 22nd, 2021 – 3:47 pm
Troll.
Expecting a win to the nats with a 3% swing towards them on nat vs labor count, if labor even make it to second.
Yes, it’s a by election caused by resignation in disgrace of the sitting member in a marginal seat. Conventional wisdom hands it to labor.
But these are not conventional times. COVID gives a massive boost to the government of the day. NSW has come out of COVID very well. Few cases, few lockdowns. Whether that’s been luck or quality of contact tracing doesn’t really matter.
Labor are running on the same ‘destroy the planet’ strategy as the Bats. This will not help them. Anyone who votes for destroying the planet will pick the masters of it, particularly when they’ve announced $600 million in white elephant fossil power. All labor’s ‘pro coal’ stance will do is drive climate aware voters to the greens and make more greens votes exhaust.
Wrong time and wrong strategy for labor.
Will Albo back intervention into the NSW ALP Branch?
Hard to see how you can ignore a loss in Upper Hunter – AE and C@t have boldly tried to set expectations but its clearly a failed leadership test.
Shame – Jodie McKay obviously has integrity (given what she went through in the NSW ALP in the Obeid era ) but sadly no cut-through. Seems like she is the NSW version of Rebecca White.
It would make it 3 out of 6 State branches undergoing federal intervention.