Two items to relate from New South Wales: tomorrow’s by-election in Upper Hunter and the first results from Resolve Strategic’s new state polling series, which the Sydney Morning Herald sneaked out on Wednesday without me noticing.
To start with the former, the by-election was initiated after the resignation of Nationals member Michael Johnsen, whose demise you can read all about in my by-election guide. Naturally, this site will be all over the count tomorrow night and beyond — my live results facility is ready to go and can be viewed here (if the format looks screwy at first, try a hard refresh). As you can see, this will feature neat displays of vote totals, booth results and swings, projections and, in an exciting new-ish feature, a map-based display of booth results at the bottom of the page.
The by-election event is fraught with significance for a number of reasons:
• The Nationals retained the seat at the March 2019 election by a margin of 2.6%, well within the range of a typical mid-term by-election swing. However, the clear pattern of strong electoral performances for incumbents since the onset of COVID-19 suggests the hurdle will be quite a bit harder to clear than the margin applies. This is awkward for Labor leader Jodi McKay, who is struggling with weak poll ratings and poor name recognition (more on that below).
• The parliamentary majority of the Berejiklian government is on the line — or at least it was until last Thursday, when Gareth Ward’s move to the cross bench ensured the government’s minority status come what may tomorrow, at least for the time being. The Coalition cleared the hurdle by two seats at the March 2019 election, winning 48 out of 93 seats, but one of these was lost when John Sidoti, the Liberal member for Drummoyne, moved to the cross bench in March pending an ICAC inquiry into his property dealings.
• As noted, the government is down another number owing to sexual violence allegations against Gareth Ward, who holds the seat of Kiama for the Liberals on a margin of 12.0%. The Sydney Morning Herald reports the Liberals are waiting on tomorrow’s result before “counselling” Ward about his future, the upshot of which may be another by-election.
• The Hunter region and its distinctive local economic and political concerns rose to the surface of national politics this week after the Morrison government announced it would bankroll a gas-fired power plant in Kurri Kurri as part of a $600 million play for the corresponding federal seat of Hunter, where Labor member Joel Fitzgibbon’s margin was sliced from 12.5% to 3.0% at the 2019 election, with One Nation securing 21.6% of the vote.
Monday’s Daily Telegraph had a YouGov poll of 400 respondents conducted last Tuesday to Thursday which, notwithstanding its small sample and wide error margin, pointed to a highly complicated contest arising from a field of 13 candidates. The primary vote numbers were Nationals 25% (34.0% at the 2019 election), Labor 23% (28.7%), Shooters Fishers and Farmers 16% (22.0%), One Nation 11% (did not contest), the Greens 6% (4.8%) and independent Kirsty O’Connell on 6%, despite the latter having received endorsement and $3000 in campaign funding from Malcolm Turnbull, who owns a farming property in the electorate. This panned out to a 51-49 lead for the Nationals over Labor on two-party preferred, although the primary vote numbers suggest it’s far from clear which two candidates will make the final count.
On to the Resolve Strategic poll in the Sydney Morning Herald, which had the Coalition on 44% of the primary vote (41.6% at the last election), Labor on 28% (33.3%), the Greens on 12% (9.6%), Shooters on 4% (3.5%), and independents and others 12% (12.0%). As with the federal polling from this series, no two-party preferred is provided, but it can be conservatively estimated that this would amount to a 4% swing to the Coalition, which won the election with a fairly handy break of 52.0-48.0. Gladys Berejiklian was credited with a commanding 57-17 lead over Jodi McKay as preferred premier.
The Sydney Morning Herald report says the poll was conducted from “1228 voters between mid-April and May”. I believe the deal here is that it combined responses from the surveys that have produced the pollster’s first two monthly results, which have been conducted mostly online, with a small cohort of phone polling add to the April survey.
Please note that this thread is specific to NSW politics. The main thread continues here:
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/05/18/resolve-strategic-coalition-39-labor-35-greens-12/
There is no good news coming for NSW Labor.
On those polling figures you would think Gladys would be thinking about how to get around fixed terms. maybe a no confidence motion moved by Ward and Sidoti? Would Labor vote in favour?
The most interesting and consequential by-election since Super Saturday
Media helping their good friends at Murdoch HQ.
Dictatorship government.
As I posted earlier like a broken record, Mata will win the by-election because of Gladys popularity and no/negative credit to Nats for this win.
Shellbell
Hmmm, I don’t know about that.
Lars
Very naughty. Describe how Gladys can get around that.
Anthony Green
If you care browsing this site, can you please clarify whether a NSW government can get around fixed term hurdle.
Ven – they can’t.
Huge test for Jodi tomorrow. Government that’s 10 years old, and everyone (at least in this bell chamber) asserts that’s stuffing everything up. Additionally, only a 2.5% swing to win, with a high profile CFMMEU candidate.
Surely its a given NSW ALP finally wins something?
Not even Labor’s most loyal supporters can pretend that this is a good result. But for some, loyalty means lying for the cause. NSW Labor has not even had the courage to consistently attack the LNP lies about a $600 million gas plant, and so the electors see no reason to vote for them.
Federal intervention in the NSW Labor branch, not Victoria, should have happened years ago.
The only way there can be an early election in NSW is if the government is defeated in a no-confidence motion in the lower house. This is highly unlikely to happen, and would of course really just be done via parliamentary trickery and not because the House of Assembly has genuinely lost confidence in the government. There would be question marks about whether Labor would support such a motion (given their current dire polling), and also, were it to pass, what effect such an event would have on the government’s polling. It’s a non-starter, in my view.
The decline of NSW Labor is one of the big political developments this century. For much of the last century, NSW was a Labor state, buttressed by the swathes of safe Labor seats in Newcastle, Wollongong and western Sydney (even now, the Labor Opposition has a stronger base of seats than, say, Queensland or WA Labor have when the tide goes out for them). Labor was in government Macquarie Street for much of the 20th Century, including 24 years straight from 1941. Indeed, in the 70 years from 1941 until the big loss in 2011, Labor was in office for 52 of those years.
In theory, Labor is within striking distance of government, needing 11 seats to form majority government, and eight to form a majority with the Greens (possibly a couple fewer if they can get some of the indies on board). In practice, though, they are as far away as they have ever been, unable to land a blow on a ten-year-old government, and long odds to come anywhere near winning in 2023.
Jodi McKay is clearly struggling to cut through, as is seemingly the lot of all Opposition leaders in these pandemic times, but it’s not clear that a change of leader would necessarily help much. In McKay’s favour is the length of time until the next election – traditionally the killing season in NSW politics is the Christmas before an election (ie late next year, as the election is scheduled for March, 2023), so she probably has a year to turn things around, something she may be able to do as the pandemic recedes, and normal political considerations reassert themselves. Certainly the stench of corruption is something that the current government is vulnerable on. Things can change quickly in politics, so I’m always wary about writing off the chances of any party this far out from an election.
It could be, though, that we have witnessed something of a realignment in Australian state politics over the last decade, with previous Liberal stronghold Victoria becoming a bastion of the Left, while erstwhile Laborland NSW has gone the other way.
Yes agree with you Hugo.
McKell Labor is pretty much a shell of its former self.
even Tammany Hall came to an end – It’s the end days for Sussex St.
What will come next ?
While admitting that individual seat polling is not always a reliable indication of the final result in a by election, the latest polling numbers in the Upper Hunter by-election I suggest give further evidence of a growing disenchantmet by a large section of the Australian public with both major parties
When one tallies the individual numbers, the combine Nationals and ALP primary vote is 48% (cumulatively down by 14.7% from the last NSW state election) and 52% opting for non-major party candidates.
The combined Shooters, Farmers and Fishers Party and One Nation Party candidates support is said to be 27% – a 5% incease over what the former party polled in the last NSW state election. This suggests that a section of regional voters no longer see the Nationals as a party with their best interests at heart. The Greens have a modest increase in their support (up 1.2% ).. The 6% opting for independent local government figure Kirsty O’Connell also suggests a disenchantment with both the Nationals and the ALP. One would hope that the voters in the Upper Murray by-election will not fall for the political stunt by the Morrison government’s announcement of a $600 million taxpayer funded gas project in nearby Kurri Kurri, sure to be a non-starter as soon as the dust settles on
Saturday’s by-election.
If this election was in Sydney, the result would be a massive win for Gladys. I say Gladys, not the LNP. because that’s what would drive it. Her public persona is very likeable and empathetic, and in the bubble I live in (60-ish, white, low information working class/lower middle class in the western suburbs) she is just adored. Even when the mask was ripped off Gladys by ICAC and her scandalous conduct with Daryl Maguire was revealed, no-one cared. I don’t see the various other scandals and maladministration of the government being relevant either, at least not in Sydney. I think the short-term outlook for NSW Labor is hopeless, regardless of leadership. Only the disappearance of Gladys from the state political scene or some catastrophic scandal might change that.
Jodi alas is invisible, at least in the Sydney media market, and you wouldn’t know who are the members of the shadow ministry either, with the exception of Chris Minns in transport and Ryan Park in health. The Shadow Treasurer, Walt Secord, he’s in witness protection, he never comes out to oppose Dominic Perrotet. OK, I admit that Gladys gets a free ride from the Daily Telegraph and 2GB, but the lack of any opposition voices is a worry. McKay, as earnest a person as she obviously is, has no cut through whatsoever. Chris Minns in my opinion would have been the better choice for Labor leader in NSW, but that ship has probably sailed and his seat of Kogarah is ultra marginal anyway.
Federal intervention in the NSW branch might be required, NSW Labor isn’t in a good state!
My guess is the Nationals retain Upper Hunter with a small swing to them!
“Socratessays:
Friday, May 21, 2021 at 9:39 am
Federal intervention in the NSW Labor branch, not Victoria, should have happened years ago.”
Socrates, your sentence may be valid but I wish to rephrase one word in your sentence. Replace Victoria with Tasmania.
A state that produced Whitlam, Keating, Carr, Wran and Richardson from Labor side is in pathetic state.
It looks strongly like the Nats will retain Upper Hunter tomorrow, though the Shooters are a chance. If they can get into second place, they should be able to surf to a win on the back on Labor preferences. Seems a long shot for Labor to win, at least on the polling we have seen so far.
“Hugoaugogosays:
Friday, May 21, 2021 at 9:39 am
For much of the last century, NSW was a Labor state, buttressed by the swathes of safe Labor seats in Newcastle, Wollongong and western Sydney (even now, the Labor Opposition has a stronger base of seats than, say, Queensland or WA Labor have when the tide goes out for them). Labor was in government Macquarie Street for much of the 20th Century, including 24 years straight from 1941. Indeed, in the 70 years from 1941 until the big loss in 2011, Labor was in office for 52 of those years.
”
Hugo
When Carr won the election in 1995 from opposition, a journo asked something like how can he explain the fact that Labor got less votes than LNP but still is forming the government. Carr replied that “Labor won maximum number of votes in maximum number of seats”
After a couple of elections where Howard won couple of elections and Carr won 2003 in a landslide, when asked how he can explain Howard winning at federal level after his government won in landslide. For that he said, NSW is Labor state in state elections. He had perfect understanding of NSW and was so confident of Labor prospects.
NSW Labor does as many media press conferences, media releases, FM radio interviews, social media posts as one could ever hope for, yet the narrative is that it – especially Jodi McKay – is invisible: this is a fable made truth by the agreement and triangulation of the Premier’s office, her Liberal Party Machine, and the three main media players in Sydney – 9Faix, Newscorpse and their ABC. The general public simply don’t care – Covid dominates the narrative & like folk everywhere, the public want their government to succeed.
There is zero point in burning through yet another Labor leader in this environment: Minns, some other phantom alternative or even Jesus Christ himself couldn’t do any better than Jodi and her team. In the current political environment scrapping together a tally of small wins – whether it be in the demise of players like Ward and Sidoti, continuing stories (even if ignored for the moment) of corruption and incompetence at the highest levels and the passage of time (the general election is in 2023) is probably as good as it could ever get.
For all those prophesying the imminent demise of NSW Labor, its worth considering that the party appears to be in no worse shape than it was between 1965-75, or the position that the Libs were in between 1976-84 and again between 1995 and about 2009. I doubt that labor will go backwards in 2023, even if it doesn’t win the election. But given just how corrupt and frankly incompetent this current mob truly are, 2023 probably isn’t a shoe in for the LNP either. Patience and not panicking at this stage may well be enough, regardless of what happens tomorrow in the byelection.
Whilst it is fashionable to focus on the problems of NSW Labor, the problems on the other side – once the Covid /Gladys bubble are penetrated – seem truly horrific. Corruption, incompetence and Byzantine infighting across the board. Right now the MSM, LNP and various disaffected Labor folk are painting the byelection as as test for Jodi. Well ‘what if’ Labor wins? … maybe ‘the test’ is for the other side. Especially with two byelections (Sidoti and Ward) potentially on the board, perhaps even three if the MSM/NSW Police/ICAC finally pull their collective fingers out and take down Bruz. Remember this also – the three seats that those MPs hold? they were all held by labor going into the 2011 wipeout election. The wheel turns … eventually.
Andrw
Much of what you say can be applied to any Labor opposition leader, State and federal.
We in WA recall when Barnett was ascendant and McGowan was a media joke.
Well the Liberals media mates aren’t laughing now.
Saying it’s not fair and everyone is against us and brighter days lie ahead,in a state where the ALP is very competitive Federally, ain’t a winning strategy.
McKay is miles behind Berijiklian and most of the opposition front bench are miles behind their counterparts.
If the NSW ALP is not planning to fuck Hoenig off and get a real talent like Dr Marjorie O’Neil some breathing room in Heffron, then the present brains trust should just give it away.
Power Companies all over Australia have been saying they don’t want household solar being fed into the system. Some suggestions about a charge to customers because they are geared to send 100% power out but are having to accept a growing percentage coming in.
Enter new gas fired power station in the Hunter Region producing a heap of power of which little is needed.
As a result of availability 24 /7 with the flick of a switch, not much point encouraging households to install solar, definately no need for any subsidy. Sale price to the grid can be reduced.
Control back with the coal and gas companies and the benefit of household solar removed.
The NSW Opposition is pretty much invisible. Jodi McKay has been leader of the NSW Opposition for nearly two years but it wouldn’t surprise me if many NSW voters didn’t know who she was.
It’s true that the Daily Tele and 2GB and commercial TV in Sydney are all pro Gladys. ABC Radio in Sydney alas has been dumbed down so much in the last 5 years, there is virtually no coverage of local or state political issues(the breakfast show is usually a forum for Robbie Buck to rant on about music festivals, for example). Jodi and her team might be doing news conferences and issuing press releases, but they don’t get covered or reported. Chris Minns has a weekly segment on 2GB drive with John Barrilaro, that’d be the exception to the rule.
How does Labor in NSW get noticed? A more assertive leader would be a start, and a better shadow cabinet.
“ most of the opposition front bench are miles behind their counterparts”
As candidates for ICAC or police investigations, they sure are.
Is Gloucester in a remote corner of Upper Hunter? Ch 10 5pm interviewed Jodi McKay in Gloucester and claimed she was hiding away there. Of course the same Ch 10 news always faithfully showcases Gladys’ near daily PR announcements.
Yep, Channel 10 news in Sydney is a propoganda machine for Gladys and co, Sandra Sully regularly reads out Liberal press releases as if they’re gospel.
“Steve777says:
Friday, May 21, 2021 at 4:22 pm
The NSW Opposition is pretty much invisible. Jodi McKay has been leader of the NSW Opposition for nearly two years but it wouldn’t surprise me if many NSW voters didn’t know who she was.”
34% according to polls
Some interesting stuff on the ABC byelection blog:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/upper-hunter-by-election-2021
3000 postals and 12000 prepolls.
May not get a clear picture of the likely outcome until Sunday or even later next week. Unless it’s a boil over.
Amazingly the Nats primary vote has halved since Johnson became the candidate/member. Perhaps with a more presentable candidate there might be a correction. It would be truly astonishing if Labor won, given the heartland Nats vote should be about 60%.
The obvious main message of the seat poll is that the ardently pro coaler PRIMARY vote in that seat poll is more than 50%.
The ardently anti coaler primary vote in that seat poll is the Greens’ 6%. This is up from 4% which is statistical noise in a seat poll of 400 respondents.
I see that Biden has delivered a cease fire.
A-E
I assume typo in 120000 prepolls?
“ I assume typo in 120000 prepolls?”
Huh?
Could depend on what kind of preference flow Nats get from PHON
“ The ardently anti coaler primary vote in that seat poll is the Greens’ 6%. This is up from 4% which is statistical noise in a seat poll of 400 respondents.”
I think is wrong.
The Greens and the independent that Turnbull support are ardent anti coalers, so if the most recent opinion poll is to be believed the straight up anti coal vote might be 12%.
The Nats and ON are campaigning on a straight up pro coal position, but I think the SFF position on coal is far more nuanced. From their policy manifesto:
“… mining exploration and extraction must NEVER be allowed to permanently effect prime agricultural land or water systems – either surface or subterranean.”
A key issue for the upper hunter is the potential role out of replacement mines on prime agricultural land. Being generally pro mining has to be balanced against the interests of their core constituencies to keep farming land … farming. I think that SFF are bracketed with Labor on the issue of Hunter coal – between the ideological extremes.
This is a reasonable article on the politics of coal in the Upper Hunter and in passing touches in the SFF party’s coal conundrum this byelection.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/may/15/they-seem-to-have-gone-coal-mad-major-parties-sing-as-one-but-upper-hunter-voters-are-not-so-sure
Sportsbet odds:
Nationals 1.45
Labor 3.70
Shooters 8.00
Dan Andrews too was invisible before election campaign of 2014 . Being opposition sucks. As long as covid is dominating very little NSW can do.
Still long way to election. No point burning through the leader just yet.
Gloucester is in a corner of Upper Hunter at present but i think it used to be in Oxley. In any case it is separated from most of the population centres by Barrington Tops.
From memory it is Jodi’s home town and before she entered parliament she read the Mid North Coast news on NBN3. Maybe as a hometown girl she can win the Gloucester booth and get Labor over the line.
There was a malicious rumour that she tried to be the Lib candidate for Port Stephens before Iemma rolled Bryce Gaudry to give her Newcastle. How she lost Newcastle is one of the more disgraceful episodes in the history of the Terrigals
“ There was a malicious rumour that she tried to be the Lib candidate for Port Stephens before Carr rolled Bryce Gaudry to give her Newcastle.”
Well they certainly wanted her. She would have won as well, but said no. Even then: integrity.
Jodi reads the news on September 11
https://youtu.be/3GsZnCZLlxI
A_E
any thoughts on the ditching of Bryce Gaudry followed by the disgraceful incident that contributed to Jodi losing Newcastle and electing the first Liberal to the seat since proportional representation was abolished?
And before you say I have a selective memory; her replacement resigned from parliament after lying to ICAC and Labor took back the seat
Jeez Andrew Eaelwood “astonishing” if the ALP won a by election in a seat that:
1 the coalition holds by 2.5%
2. The govt is 10 1/2 yes old
3. The seat sits wholly within a safe federation Alp seat.
You got your talking notes but don’t insult our intelligence. Jodi and Labor should win, but won’t b/c both are duds.
Back to the war room!!
Feeling somewhat Tetchy ‘moderate’?
Don’t like your carefully manicured narrative interrupted? That seat might be within a federal ALP seat, but it contains three distinct geographical areas, the demographics of which are only potentially Labor friendly in one. That 2.5% margin may well be a reflection of just what a dud Johnson was, because the former member never got less than 49% of the primary vote.
The whole Jodi ‘is a dud’ meme exists because the MSM have deemed her to be one: some 20 months ago and the cabal haven’t missed a chance to ram that point home. Not once. No wonder you seem somewhat rattled. How would that narrative be if … against all odds … the folk of the Upper Hunter don’t return a coalition MP to be on glorious Glad’s team? I mean, I have low expectations for the ALP tomorrow, given the prevailing media/political climate. But what if the whole Glorious Glad charade falls down tomorrow? Well that would be just terrible … wouldn’t it?
Mod Lib,
I’m pleased to hear that New England, Lyne, and Calare are now safe ALP seats.
https://www.theland.com.au/story/7262988/a-lot-at-stake-as-upper-hunter-goes-to-the-polls/
“ The Nationals though are hoping their “vote one Dave” campaign will pay off – that is one vote as the NSW system is optional preferential. And perhaps, maybe, suprisingly, they can pull off an unexpected victory, retaining the rural seat they’ve held for 99 years.
But how can this miracle be performed ? Insiders in The Nationals say they have found that what it is that’s resonating with voters, it’s not necessarily about the battle over the future of coal mining, not necessarily the battle over local issues and jobs, not necessarily about restoring the faith after the disgraced behaviour of the former Nats member – but just two simple things – the way the NSW Coalition has successfully handled the pandemic and how it has kept the economy going while other states economies’ have spluttered, hit by lockdowns.”
So, two lines of MSM media bullshit might just swing it for Bruz and Glad. How good is that for narrative management for the LNP-9Faix-ABC-Newscorpse oligarchy?
We shall see.
Andrew Earlwood / I’ll look forward to regular updates from you from the war room during the day. That’ll be most instructive …
And. I wholeheartedly withdraw the Jodi is a dud observation. Nothing would give me greater pleasure than facing off against her in March ‘23 old son!!
A-e is angry he turned up to the party expecting great times ,turned out the pretty girls had gone home with someone else, the foods been eaten and there is a fat guy snoring on the couch as the crowd drifts of ….
Lars Von Trier @ #46 Saturday, May 22nd, 2021 – 6:47 am
That’s very nasty, Lars and what has it got to do with politics!?! At least couch your predictable criticism around the issues.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #33 Friday, May 21st, 2021 – 7:06 pm
So, will the farmers vote SFF or Nats? That is the question!
From Antony Green…
#upperhunter by-election has recorded 19,310 pre-poll votes, around 3,000 postals and 2,000 iVotes. Roughly half of all votes have been cast before polling day. Join me for live coverage of the count Saturday night at
https://ab.co/2Sclf6H
Nine/Fairfax has a lot riding on this election. After constant boosting of Gladys and criticising Jodi it would be so embarrassing for them should Labor win a historically conservative seat. So one of their hacks writes: