Miscellany: election timing, Victorian ALP turmoil, compulsory super

Renewed uncertainty over federal election timing, courts involved in a Victorian ALP preselection, and a poll finding overwhelming support for higher super contributions.

Below this post is a live commentary thread on local and regional elections in the United Kingdom from regular guest contributor Adrian Beaumont; I myself am overdue for new posts on late counting in Tasmania and the looming Upper Hunter by-election on May 22, so stay tuned for those over the next few days. Other than that:

• A report by Max Maddison of The Australian suggests the pendulum may be swinging back to a federal election sooner rather than later, due to “the turmoil of the start of the year dissipating and the rate of vaccinations slowly increasing”. This is said to be reflected in the New South Wales Liberal Party’s commencement of preselection proceedings this week for 13 seats, for which nominations will close on May 21.

• The Age reports that Victoria’s Supreme Court will today consider a last-minute bid by ten unions to prevent the Labor national executive from choosing a candidate for the new federal seat of Hawke on Melbourne’s north-western fringe. The national executive had been expected to vote today to endorse former state secretary Sam Rae as part of a deal between elements of Rae’s Right faction, notably federal front-bencher Richard Marles, and the Socialist Left. This freezes out the rival Right forces associated with Bill Shorten and the Australian Workers Union, who favour the rival claim of state minister Natalie Hutchins, who is also invoking the cause of affirmative action. The legal action seeks to establish that the federal party organisation had acted improperly in taking over the state branch in response to the Adem Somyurek branch-stacking scandal.

• The Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research and Methods has published results from a survey of 3459 respondents on “attitudes towards and experiences of retirement and social security income during the COVID-recession and initial recovery”. Among other things, it finds 55.0% support for an increase in compulsory superannuation from 9.5% to 12% as per current legislation, with 20.8% thinking it should be lifted even higher. Only 20.4% said it should remain at the current level, and only 3.8% believed it should be lowered or eliminated altogether.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,708 comments on “Miscellany: election timing, Victorian ALP turmoil, compulsory super”

Comments Page 3 of 35
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  1. Other countries, even those still battling Covid, are still allowing citizens to return from India. The chair of epidemiology at Deakin University, Prof Catherine Bennett, said Australia should be able to manage arrivals from India according to risk, port of origin and vaccination status.

    “We could triage even our positive cases into those at low risk, such as those not infected with a variant of concern, those with mild or no symptoms, with low viral load and low risk of serious illness,” she said. Those people could go into home quarantine with frequent compliance checks, Bennett said.

    More risky cases could go into designated “hot” hotels identified as having good ventilation and infection control in place. “If we get a system working well that triages risk, then we should be able to increase overall intake numbers also,” she said.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/may/06/australias-india-travel-ban-how-other-countries-are-managing-their-returning-citizens

  2. @JohnRHewson tweets

    Unfortunately we have moved from Farce to High Farce sinking in Spin with Govt’s mess of the India Travel Ban and failure to accept full responsibility for quarantine. Surely can’t sell a once a week mercy flight and Howard Springs as an honest and effective solution?

  3. Andrew_Earlwood

    Friday, May 7, 2021 at 10:00 am

    [‘Hmmm, Mavis – that’s not my experience in Sexual Assault trials.’]

    I didn’t mean to suggest that my comment only applies to sexual assault trials. It’s been my experience from both working within the court system and in practice that the longer a jury deliberates, the better the outcome for the accused, whether it leads to acquittal or consideration of a retrial following a hung jury. It’s difficult to find any reliable stats in this area and I did qualify my comment by saying that my opinion is not set in cement. I guess it’s fair to say that we have different experiences.

  4. Parts of the ABC’s Porter defence to be suppressed – for now. Paul Karp

    Despite Christian Porter’s counsel’s claim that there is “very little” by way of truth defences in the ABC’s defence to his defamation claim, the ABC has disputed this.

    The ABC’s counsel, Renee Enbom, said its defence will consist of:

    The qualified privilege defence – requiring a corresponding interest between the publisher and public in finding out the allegation against Porter (essentially, that it was in the public interest; and reasonable in the circumstances); and
    A “substantial truth defence to many of the imputations that have been pleaded” which Enbom described as “significant” and said would involve at least 15 witnesses
    At the conclusion of the hearing, Justice Jayne Jagot granted Porter’s wish to suppress parts of the ABC’s defence until she can hold a hearing into whether they can be struck out.

    She impressed that this was “not about holding a hearing in secret” but only protecting material that could be scandalous or vexatious from entering the public domain until she can determine the merit of that claim.

    So – we’ll have a strike-out hearing in late May/early June before a trial that could last up to six weeks in September/October. Strap in!

  5. “Those people could go into home quarantine with frequent compliance checks, Bennett said”

    That is never going to fly

  6. Interesting leadership comment from Mr Dempster

    @QuentinDempster tweets

    Sorry @tanya_plibersek. Can’t smash the patriarchy for you this Mother’s Day. You’ll have to do it yourself! Try knocking off @albo for your party’s leadership and there’s a good chance the Australian people (including usually LNP-voting women) will make you prime minister.

    I don’t think it’s going to happen. I do think if Labor did it he would be correct.

  8. lizzie @ #NaN Friday, May 7th, 2021 – 11:51 am

    Other countries, even those still battling Covid, are still allowing citizens to return from India. The chair of epidemiology at Deakin University, Prof Catherine Bennett, said Australia should be able to manage arrivals from India according to risk, port of origin and vaccination status.

    “We could triage even our positive cases into those at low risk, such as those not infected with a variant of concern, those with mild or no symptoms, with low viral load and low risk of serious illness,” she said. Those people could go into home quarantine with frequent compliance checks, Bennett said.

    More risky cases could go into designated “hot” hotels identified as having good ventilation and infection control in place. “If we get a system working well that triages risk, then we should be able to increase overall intake numbers also,” she said.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/may/06/australias-india-travel-ban-how-other-countries-are-managing-their-returning-citizens

    Morrison has obviously decided not to do this and to blow the silent dog whistle instead to his targeted demographic. Men inclined to vote Labor.

  11. guytaur @ #NaN Friday, May 7th, 2021 – 12:01 pm

    Interesting leadership comment from Mr Dempster

    @QuentinDempster tweets

    Sorry @tanya_plibersek. Can’t smash the patriarchy for you this Mother’s Day. You’ll have to do it yourself! Try knocking off @albo for your party’s leadership and there’s a good chance the Australian people (including usually LNP-voting women) will make you prime minister.

    I don’t think it’s going to happen. I do think if Labor did it he would be correct.

    Not going to happen. Can you imagine the ‘Inner City’ jibes Morrison and Co. would throw at Tanya? Not to mention ‘The Handbag Hit Squad’ knocking off ‘Albo’ would roar back into prominence.

    I hope Tanya isn’t listening to bozos like Dempster.

  13. Mavis says:
    Friday, May 7, 2021 at 12:05 pm

    Of course, he is losing alot. Sporting people seem to do just as bad as Politicians in terms of stupidity and sexual desires.

  17. Cat

    I think the misogyny of handbag hit squad comments would backfire on the LNP. I do agree with you those reasons and not giving Murdoch leadership instability headlines into the bargain are why it’s not going to happen.

  18. Is this our esteemed PB gaggle of lawyers’ opinion?

    Jackie
    @jaquix173
    Replying to
    @oldlillipilli
    @Clarkie_Qld
    and
    @Paul_Karp

    A trial. Worst thing for him. He really wants a settlement but ABCs Justin Gleason says No settlement. We’re going to trial. Imagine all the witnesses!

  19. lizzie @ #101 Friday, May 7th, 2021 – 11:51 am

    Other countries, even those still battling Covid, are still allowing citizens to return from India. The chair of epidemiology at Deakin University, Prof Catherine Bennett, said Australia should be able to manage arrivals from India according to risk, port of origin and vaccination status.

    “We could triage even our positive cases into those at low risk, such as those not infected with a variant of concern, those with mild or no symptoms, with low viral load and low risk of serious illness,” she said. Those people could go into home quarantine with frequent compliance checks, Bennett said.

    More risky cases could go into designated “hot” hotels identified as having good ventilation and infection control in place. “If we get a system working well that triages risk, then we should be able to increase overall intake numbers also,” she said.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/may/06/australias-india-travel-ban-how-other-countries-are-managing-their-returning-citizens

    Gosh. Triage! Who knew.

  20. Morrison has provided a picture of himself in the pilot cabin of an aircraft to publicise his announcement that he is providing millions to upgrade the Newcastle airport runway (?), which will provide a zillion jobs to the Hunter.

  21. guytaur @ #NaN Friday, May 7th, 2021 – 12:15 pm

    Cat

    I think the misogyny of handbag hit squad comments would backfire on the LNP. I do agree with you those reasons and not giving Murdoch leadership instability headlines into the bargain are why it’s not going to happen.

    guytaur,
    The Handbag Hit Squad jibe wouldn’t backfire on Morrison’s targeted demographic, the men inclined to vote Labor, or as I like to think of them, the kinda sexist Tradies.

    But you’re absolutely right about the leadership instability headlines. Murdoch would have a field day.

  22. lizzie @ #NaN Friday, May 7th, 2021 – 12:17 pm

    Morrison has provided a picture of himself in the pilot cabin of an aircraft to publicise his announcement that he is providing millions to upgrade the Newcastle airport runway (?), which will provide a zillion jobs to the Hunter.

    He’s carpet bombing (see what I did there? 😀 ) with money those electorates on the Central Coast and in the Newcastle/Hunter area that those Redbridge dodgy polls said were underwater for Labor. He’s a cunning bastard that never lets rust sleep.

  23. Itza

    Prof Catherine Bennett has been the main go-to epidemiology expert for the ABC throughout the pandemic. Frankly, I’ve never ben quite sure which “side” she is on.

  24. lizzie @ #123 Friday, May 7th, 2021 – 12:20 pm

    Itza

    Prof Catherine Bennett has been the main go-to epidemiology expert for the ABC throughout the pandemic. Frankly, I’ve never ben quite sure which “side” she is on.

    Which possibly is a very good thing. The only side to be on is good epidemiology. But it is interesting that she is highlighting how blunt the management of this has been.

  25. Jaeger says Friday, May 7, 2021 at 11:31 am

    ” … I can’t see how anyone could deny that or say that they are not capable of being carried. Not only that imputations aren’t carried, but that they are not capable of being carried, that they are so hopeless it should be struck out. We don’t understand that pleading.”

    I know the feeling – is there a legalese translator in the house?

    It doesn’t make any sense.

  26. Zerlo:

    Friday, May 7, 2021 at 12:11 pm

    [‘Of course, he is losing alot. Sporting people seem to do just as bad as Politicians in terms of stupidity and sexual desires.’]

    Yep. Some thinking they’re above the law.

    _______________________________

    C@tmomma:

    Friday, May 7, 2021 at 12:13 pm

    [‘It would have been prepared while he awaited sentencing.’]

    No doubting that. As for his chances of getting up, I wouldn’t proffer an opinion but the blood-smeared sheets and his phone call (recorded by police) to his
    mate won’t assist him.

  27. Cat

    On the appealing to the sexist male tradies thing.

    They tried that with Marriage Equality. We know how that went down. The good news is that the anti christian myth can’t be used with sexism. So it doesn’t appeal in Western Sydney marginals in the same way.

    So on the available data we do have I think it’s a losing strategy.
    That’s not taking into account how small a group sexist tradies are. Most tradies will hate this and Labor needs to hammer it home.

    I think Morrison is confusing NRL player culture for being the fan base.

  28. I know it’s counterintuitive but following my A-Z shot yesterday, I’m feeling a lot better – perhaps the placebo effect(?).

  29. Mavis

    I know it’s counterintuitive but following my A-Z shot yesterday, I’m feeling a lot better

    It’s the sense of achievement for managing to get a shot despite the best efforts of bunglers Scotty+Ghunt to thwart you 😆

  30. Mavis @ #122 Friday, May 7th, 2021 – 12:47 pm

    I know it’s counterintuitive but following my A-Z shot yesterday, I’m feeling a lot better – perhaps the placebo effect(?).

    Mavis, what was the injection like. Mundo is mighty squeamish about this sort of thing….heading off to have mine this afternoon.

  31. C@t

    A trial. Worst thing for him. He really wants a settlement but ABCs Justin Gleason says No settlement. We’re going to trial. Imagine all the witnesses!

    ________________________________________

    Any settlement would be a victory for Porter. Any trial would be a loss. Politically. Regardless of the legal outcome. Sadly, it will involve trashing KT’s reputation. But there are a significant number of outstanding citizens who are willing to take up the cudgels to defend her reputation.

    It’s high stakes for Porter. He had to take this path or he would have no career future. Taking action against the ABC has given Scummo cover to keep him onside and in the Ministry. But it also runs the very high risk of permanently trashing his reputation or worse. KT may no longer be around but the quality of those who are there for her more than makes up for that fact.

  34. lizzie @ #114 Friday, May 7th, 2021 – 12:17 pm

    Morrison has provided a picture of himself in the pilot cabin of an aircraft to publicise his announcement that he is providing millions to upgrade the Newcastle airport runway (?), which will provide a zillion jobs to the Hunter.

    Where’s the money coming from?

  39. The federal government has been accused of wasting tens of millions of dollars on unused COVID-19 tests sold to them by WA mining magnate Andrew ‘Twiggy’ Forrest during the early stages of the pandemic.

    Nine News reported almost two million tests could be thrown out at the end of May when they reach their expiry date.

    Mr Forrest’s Minderoo Foundation secured 10 million COVID-19 tests from a Chinese company in April 2020, as Australia was going through its national lockdown and there was a global shortage of testing reagents.

    The tests were paid for by Minderoo Foundation and reimbursed by the government at a cost of $186 million.

    Federal Health Minster Greg Hunt conceded only a fraction of the tests had been used.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/western-australia/millions-of-unused-covid-tests-secured-by-andrew-twiggy-forrest-to-be-thrown-out-20210507-p57ps5.html

  40. mundo

    My jab was painless, not even that slight “sting”. I didn’t even realise it had been done until she was putting a small band-aid on my arm. You’ll be fine!

    I’ve had no side effects at all, 27 hours later.

  41. guytaur

    Given that Christians have overseen two thousand years of sexism, I’m not sure your optimism is justified.

  42. mundo says:
    Friday, May 7, 2021 at 12:59 pm
    lizzie @ #114 Friday, May 7th, 2021 – 12:17 pm

    Morrison has provided a picture of himself in the pilot cabin of an aircraft to publicise his announcement that he is providing millions to upgrade the Newcastle airport runway (?), which will provide a zillion jobs to the Hunter.

    Where’s the money coming from?

    There’s an announcement, that’s good enough. No need for money as that would mean actually keeping a funding promise and SfM tends not to do that.

  44. poroti:

    Friday, May 7, 2021 at 12:57 pm

    [‘Mavis

    I know it’s counterintuitive but following my A-Z shot yesterday, I’m feeling a lot better
    It’s the sense of achievement for managing to get a shot despite the best efforts of bunglers Scotty+Ghunt to thwart you ‘]

    Ah! That’s it.

    ______________________________

    mundo:

    Friday, May 7, 2021 at 12:57 pm

    [‘Mavis, what was the injection like. Mundo is mighty squeamish about this sort of thing….heading off to have mine this afternoon.’]

    Relax your arm and you’ll not feel. You’ll be fine.

  45. Preachy alert

    Pain from injections can be related broadly to

    *The size of the needle
    *The place of injection (different skin areas have differing sensitivity – most sensitive (number of pain fibres): face, hands, genitals
    *the tissue density of injection site
    *the injectate volume and pH
    *speed of injection

    So – painful injection would be a large needle injecting into the ear (no room for distension) with a large volume of low pH stuff (local anaesthetic with adrenalin)

    But – a fine needle injecting a low volume of vaccine into soft distensible tissues of the not very sensitive upper outer arm should be virtually painless. Mine certainly was.

    Positive placebo talk by the operator works. It’s much better to say ‘I’m rubbing your skin a little so you don’t feel anything’, or some other bullshit like that, as opposed to ‘I’m going to stick this needle into you and it might hurt a bit’.

    Believe me, the positive placebo is a wonderful thing. Carefully avoid words like needle, hurt, pain. If you tell someone not to think about green elephants, I’m afraid the first thing they think of is ….

  46. Hearing about lawfulness of ordinance (or like) under Biosecurity Act re India in Federal Court on Monday

  47. ItzaDream

    I had always taught my children the word ‘injection’ and used to get furious inside when a soppy well-meaning nurse would say “Now, just a little prick,” which I felt set them up for pain.

  48. lizzie @ #147 Friday, May 7th, 2021 – 1:27 pm

    ItzaDream

    I had always taught my children the word ‘injection’ and used to get furious inside when a soppy well-meaning nurse would say “Now, just a little prick,” which I felt set them up for pain.

    Lucky you weren’t there the day the just-came-on-duty nurse walked up to the first patient in recovery and asked point blank “Hows your pain?”, essentially telling them they had pain, or should have.

  49. I’m finding myself confused with what it is that some of the critics of the India travel ban think they are after.

    Some of the language they use about compassion and humanitarianism seems to imply that people who have contracted COVID-19 are going to be flown back. I certainly don’t believe that’s going to be possible: certainly not if they are to be quarantined at Howard Springs.

    At the political level, I believe we are seeing clear evidence of the growing power of the ethnically Indian community. In the course of 2-3 decades, the size of the Indian community in Australia has quickly risen from very low numbers to approaching 5 per cent of the population. They are highly educated (completing tertiary degrees at 3 times the Australian average), relatively wealthy and, as we have seen on several occasions, are forthright and quick to cry “racism” if they aren’t happy about something.

    The India travel ban was not racist and, from my perspective, was entirely sensible. The virus is raging uncontrolled in those cities of India from which returnees to Australia will be traveling. The prevailing mutations in India are highly contagious. If putting a stop to people coming from that environment to Australia is not a good idea, then where does that leave the border closures imposed by some State governments against other States in which there were a handful of cases and transmission appeared to be well under control? Those closures also imposed hardships on many people: opportunities were lost to see close relatives before they died, or to see offspring graduate or marry, etc, etc. Epidemiologically, the case for those closures was far weaker than that for the India ban.

    Allowing flights into Australia from 15 May is imposing an unnecessary risk on us all. There is no sign that the situation in India is getting any better and, until it does, why take that risk?

    Of course, a lot of blame for the reversal of policy should be placed on the idiotic political staffer or Department of Health employee (it’s not clear exactly who it was) who decided to make a thing about huge fines and gaol time. That provided an opening for critics of the policy, which they were quick to take.

  50. “Importance of appeal process on show after Alan Tudge vindicated”

    “So on April 1, when the full bench of the Federal Court unanimously pointed to errors in one of his most sensational rulings it is hard to imagine which finding caused him the most pain.

    Would it have been the fact that he had denied procedural fairness to federal Education Minister Alan Tudge by accusing him of criminal conduct when he had been acting immigration minister? Or would it have been the fact that he had made “an underlying factual error as to the identity of the minister”.

    Flick had accused the wrong man.”

    “And to make matters worse, the appeal court also noted that the original decision of the AAT, ordering the man’s release, had relied upon an interpretation of the Migration Act that had subsequently been found to be incorrect by eight Federal Court judges.

    “We have concluded, and with great respect to the primary judge, that the suggestion that the Minister may have acted criminally could only be understood as a personal criticism of the Minister raised without according procedural fairness to this particular Minister to respond to that criticism,” the appeal court said.

    “Had the opportunity to consider such conclusions been given to the Minister, new evidence advanced on this appeal would have made it clear that this particular Minister had no relevant knowledge at all of the circumstances …”

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/legal-affairs/importance-of-appeal-process-on-show-after-alan-tudge-vindicated/news-story/25c8ef340783660bb5f3c5b5144c520b

    I recall you all yahooing about him being called a criminal. You were all wrong.

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