Miscellany: election timing, Victorian ALP turmoil, compulsory super

Renewed uncertainty over federal election timing, courts involved in a Victorian ALP preselection, and a poll finding overwhelming support for higher super contributions.

Below this post is a live commentary thread on local and regional elections in the United Kingdom from regular guest contributor Adrian Beaumont; I myself am overdue for new posts on late counting in Tasmania and the looming Upper Hunter by-election on May 22, so stay tuned for those over the next few days. Other than that:

• A report by Max Maddison of The Australian suggests the pendulum may be swinging back to a federal election sooner rather than later, due to “the turmoil of the start of the year dissipating and the rate of vaccinations slowly increasing”. This is said to be reflected in the New South Wales Liberal Party’s commencement of preselection proceedings this week for 13 seats, for which nominations will close on May 21.

The Age reports that Victoria’s Supreme Court will today consider a last-minute bid by ten unions to prevent the Labor national executive from choosing a candidate for the new federal seat of Hawke on Melbourne’s north-western fringe. The national executive had been expected to vote today to endorse former state secretary Sam Rae as part of a deal between elements of Rae’s Right faction, notably federal front-bencher Richard Marles, and the Socialist Left. This freezes out the rival Right forces associated with Bill Shorten and the Australian Workers Union, who favour the rival claim of state minister Natalie Hutchins, who is also invoking the cause of affirmative action. The legal action seeks to establish that the federal party organisation had acted improperly in taking over the state branch in response to the Adem Somyurek branch-stacking scandal.

• The Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research and Methods has published results from a survey of 3459 respondents on “attitudes towards and experiences of retirement and social security income during the COVID-recession and initial recovery”. Among other things, it finds 55.0% support for an increase in compulsory superannuation from 9.5% to 12% as per current legislation, with 20.8% thinking it should be lifted even higher. Only 20.4% said it should remain at the current level, and only 3.8% believed it should be lowered or eliminated altogether.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,708 comments on “Miscellany: election timing, Victorian ALP turmoil, compulsory super”

Comments Page 2 of 35
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  1. The numbers have always been a bit of a mind boggle to me as to how small a scale they are working on but now at 2nm (50,000 x thinner than a human hair) there must be some end in sight or is there ? Coming to a desk top near you…………
    .

    IBM Creates World’s First 2nm CPU Using Nanosheets

    IBM claims this new chip will improve performance by 45 percent using the same amount of power, or use 75 percent less energy while maintaining the same performance level, as today’s 7 nm-based chips. To give some sense of scale, with 2-nm technology, IBM could put 50 billion transistors onto a chip the size of a fingernail.

    https://spectrum.ieee.org/nanoclast/semiconductors/nanotechnology/ibm-introduces-the-worlds-first-2nm-node-chip

  2. “ [‘And while it’s by no means set in cement, the longer a jury takes, the more chance of a verdict favourable to the accused.’]”

    Hmmm, Mavis – that’s not my experience in Sexual Assault trials. Clear cut cases get quick verdicts (I secured an acquittal just last week after 13 minutes of jury deliberations – still not a personal record though) but the longer this drags out the more likely that the jury are either working their way towards convictions or there is a genuine deadlock (however I note that there has not been one question or note from the jury – as of yesterday lunchtime at least when I last checked with the defence counsel running the trial for Mr Sinclair).

  3. frednk @ #NaN Friday, May 7th, 2021 – 9:16 am

    Player One says:
    Friday, May 7, 2021 at 8:45 am

    As someone posted last night (wtte) “always back the horse named self-interest”.

    Yep. China got rich by being integrated into the would economy. It all happened in 30 years and if there is a solid reason to do so I am sure it can be unwound in less.

    Yup. Capital is fungible:
    replaceable by another identical item; mutually interchangeable.

  4. U.S. COVID update:

    – New cases: 45,002 …………… – New deaths: 793

    – In hospital: 36,844 (-379)
    – In ICU: 9,629 (-213)

    593,991 total deaths now

    ( India reports 414,030 new coronavirus cases and 3,919 new deaths )

  5. Player One

    China got rich by pandering to our greed.

    And what a stampede it was as our capitalist captains of industry raced each other to export our jobs to the ‘commies’.

  6. Sir Keith doing well for UK Labour.
    “Sandhill (Sunderland) council result:
    LDem: 50.8% (+46.8)
    Lab: 32.4% (-22.1)
    Con: 12.7% (+0.5)
    UKIP: 2.6% (-23.0)
    Oth: 1.5% (+0.5)
    LDem GAIN from Lab”

  7. Sohar @ #NaN Friday, May 7th, 2021 – 10:06 am

    Sir Keith doing well for UK Labour.
    “Sandhill (Sunderland) council result:
    LDem: 50.8% (+46.8)
    Lab: 32.4% (-22.1)
    Con: 12.7% (+0.5)
    UKIP: 2.6% (-23.0)
    Oth: 1.5% (+0.5)
    LDem GAIN from Lab”

    It’s a way station back from these people throwing in their lot with the Tories at the last national election.

  8. “I secured an acquittal just last week after 13 minutes of jury deliberations – still not a personal record though”

    Did they just announce the result without leaving the court?

  9. Here is a dispassionate view on the elections going on in Britain. Hey, it even mentions Sunderland:

    Labour is expected to hold on to the London and Greater Manchester mayoralties – though there were reports of weak turnout in the capital – but the Tories hope Andy Street can hold on in the West Midlands.

    … The Liberal Democrat leader, Ed Davey, who has been in charge since August 2020, will also face scrutiny over his party’s performance in the coming days.

    Davey’s party hopes to pick up council seats in areas including Sunderland in the north-east – which he visited during the campaign – as well as in its traditional strongholds of the south-west.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/06/uk-elections-2021-parties-drive-secure-votes-johnson-starmer-khan-scotland

  10. Gladys need help to find the missing link.

    Berejiklian: We may never find missing link (Murdoch’s Oz headline)

    Does this help?

  11. Insiders Sunday, 9 May

    David Speers is joined by Katharine Murphy, John Kehoe and Shane Wright to preview the Budget and the government’s post-pandemic blueprint for growth and recovery plus repatriation plans for Australians stranded in India.

  12. “Chrysanthou then takes issue with the ABC’s claim that the imputations that there is “reasonable suspicion” against Porter cannot be conveyed by the article.

    She said:

    I can’t see how anyone could deny that or say that they are not capable of being carried. Not only that imputations aren’t carried, but that they are not capable of being carried, that they are so hopeless it should be struck out. We don’t understand that pleading.”

    Porter trying to strike out that part of the defence of the ABC which seeks to strike out parts of Porter’s claim.

  13. Paul Karp
    @Paul_Karp
    ·
    1h
    One repatriation flight per week, no word yet on commercial flights, and pre-flight testing so Covid-19 positive people can’t come back.

    This isn’t prioritising the vulnerable – this is fortress Australia, and returning the bare minimum of citizens to calm backlash.
    #auspol

    Mark Dreyfus
    @markdreyfusQCMP

    If Mr Morrison hadn’t stuffed up quarantine, and stuffed up the vaccine rollout, he wouldn’t need to make threats to jail his own citizens for coming home.

    Watch this video from the 26.50 mark. It’s Mark Humphries on the India decision:
    https://https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E0qhtWZUYAAALl3?format=png&name=smalliview.abc.net.au/video/NC2101H072S00

    Brilliant!

  14. C@tmomma @ #67 Friday, May 7th, 2021 – 10:42 am

    Paul Karp
    @Paul_Karp
    ·
    1h
    One repatriation flight per week, no word yet on commercial flights, and pre-flight testing so Covid-19 positive people can’t come back.

    This isn’t prioritising the vulnerable – this is fortress Australia, and returning the bare minimum of citizens to calm backlash.
    #auspol

    Mark Dreyfus
    @markdreyfusQCMP

    If Mr Morrison hadn’t stuffed up quarantine, and stuffed up the vaccine rollout, he wouldn’t need to make threats to jail his own citizens for coming home.

    Watch this video from the 26.50 mark. It’s Mark Humphries on the India decision:
    https://https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E0qhtWZUYAAALl3?format=png&name=smalliview.abc.net.au/video/NC2101H072S00

    Brilliant!

    Can you try reposting the link C@t? – coming up ‘dead’ my end.

  15. Why won’t Labor team up with the Greens…

    This answers itself. The greater the distance between Labor and the LINO party the better will Labor do in the next election.

  16. The campaign by the LINOs against Labor will rebound on them. Labor will win in part because they are not associated with the LINOs. The more the LINOs do to accentuate their differences with Labor, the easier it will be for past-Lib voters to migrate back to Labor.

    To this extent, Labor should be great grateful to the LINOs, who continue to campaign against themselves and the values they purport to hold.

  17. Can you try reposting the link C@t? – coming up ‘dead’ my end.

    I’ll give it a go, Itza. It was really hard to get last night’s Mark Humphries’ satire piece linked before the ABC put it up, days down the track.

    https://iview.abc.net.au/video/NC2101H072S00

    Go to the 26;50 mark.

    If not just go to iView and watch the latest episode of 730 and go to the 26:50 mark. 🙂

  18. No compunction. $50,000 fine please

    “NSW Health is concerned that compliance with QR code check-ins at XOPP restaurant was very low”

  19. This Talking Politics podcast is worth the time (~50 min) of anyone who seeks to understand how royally pissed off some of us are with trying to clean up after the irresponsible children that “lead” us. It is a demolition of the duck-shoving bullshit served up as “informed commentary” by political sports commentators maskerading as scoial scientists and blame-deflectors. It is an interview with Michael Lewis, author of a new book ( The Premonition ) which looks at how the US COVID response was fucked up by the politicisation of the CDC (since Reagan) – and how a group of Californian PH practitioners (who referred to themselves as the Wolverines) both predicted and tried to resist the idiocracy. It applies here too. Je suis Wolverine.

  20. “This answers itself. The greater the distance between Labor and the LINO party the better will Labor do in the next election.”

    So you would rather Labor continues to side with the Coalition then?

    Rhetorical question – you’ve already made it pretty clear that that’s your preference. And as a result of the duopoly teaming up, as you are fond of saying, we’re fucked.

  21. C@tmomma @ #76 Friday, May 7th, 2021 – 11:06 am

    Can you try reposting the link C@t? – coming up ‘dead’ my end.

    I’ll give it a go, Itza. It was really hard to get last night’s Mark Humphries’ satire piece linked before the ABC put it up, days down the track.

    https://iview.abc.net.au/video/NC2101H072S00

    Go to the 26;50 mark.

    If not just go to iView and watch the latest episode of 730 and go to the 26:50 mark. 🙂

    Found it, ta muchly. I’d seen it already thanks to Alpha Zero (AZ!) ‘s earlier link to Mark Humphries twitter feed. Very good. And good that that sort of thing is getting prime time; is 7:30 prime? high rating? (asking for a friend who doesn’t watch much live TV)

  22. Bucephalus @ #80 Friday, May 7th, 2021 – 11:14 am

    ItzaDream says:
    Friday, May 7, 2021 at 10:54 am

    Strange resource allocation – they should be in Tennant Creek or similar.

    Resource allocation is the Govt’s responsibility. This is a direct response to a direct (desperate would not be a hyperbole) request from an under-resourced Crisis Centre.

    As explained in the article.

    I have no doubt that dark skinned people in Tennant Creek are just as desperate as white skinned people in Wollongong.

  23. Theo

    N is doing Murdoch’s work.
    As are several in Labor. They think voters will vote Labor when their wallets dictate.

    They have not woken up to the change. muliticultural voters can be appealed to on a credible scare campaign of not trusting the LNP with their citizenship.

    Coal workers know the LNP are destroying their jobs. There is no government help for them as their export industry dies. Economics is making it clear there is going to be no gas led recovery.

    Tariffs are coming as the G7 ramps up climate action.

    The denialist alliance in the duopoly major parties is starting to fall apart.
    As Labor frees itself from the shackles of the fossil fuel lobby as reality sets in we will see an end to this the Greens are a radical extreme party.

    It’s very very clear that it’s the LNP that are the radical extreme party that is basically One Nation on the policy front now. A slight exaggeration but when the likes of David Crowe are telling you the LNP are extreme it’s time Labor listened.

    It will take a while for this to penetrate N’s fantasy land.

    Edit: Part of the end of seeing the Greens as a radical extreme party will be Labor seeing those realities and ending their promotion of fossil fuels. They have started on this path but not ended it yet.

  24. ” … I can’t see how anyone could deny that or say that they are not capable of being carried. Not only that imputations aren’t carried, but that they are not capable of being carried, that they are so hopeless it should be struck out. We don’t understand that pleading.”

    I know the feeling – is there a legalese translator in the house?

  25. frednk says:
    Friday, May 7, 2021 at 9:16 am
    Player One says:
    Friday, May 7, 2021 at 8:45 am

    As someone posted last night (wtte) “always back the horse named self-interest”.

    Yep. China got rich by being integrated into the would economy. It all happened in 30 years and if there is a solid reason to do so I am sure it can be unwound in less.

    This contains the assumption that China is a kind of subset of the US-led global division of labour/industrial production. This is only partly correct. While China is the world’s largest exporter, its share of world trade is significantly less than the its share of the world economy. That is, its economic growth is home-grown more than it’s internationally-reliant. This is in complete contrast to the composition of our economy, for example.

    Aside from this, the desire to inflict economic pain on China by some in the West can only be self-harming. Most of the growth in the world economy since the 1990s has been impelled by China. Contraction in China would have rebound effects – negative snowball effects – in the rest of the world system…not least in this country.

    We have to keep in mind that there have been two eco-hegemons – the US and Western Europe, and we have been both beneficiaries and contributors to that imperialism/hegemony. The hegemony arose in the first place because the industrial revolution commenced specifically in the north of England and Scotland.

    This revolution absolutely changed the global division of labour and in the process displaced China and India from their former pre-eminence. They’re now participants in the post-revolutionary order. They face many obstacles, but they have become industrial economies and will be a part of the post-industrial system too. The Anglo/Euro-centred mind cannot abide this.

    What we now see are attempts by the Anglo/Euro revolutionaries to re-assert and consolidate their hegemony. There will be consequences for the hegemonic outpost/dependency that lies between the Pacific and Indian Oceans, to the south of the Indonesian archipelago.

  26. Theo Andelini says:
    Friday, May 7, 2021 at 11:18 am
    “This answers itself. The greater the distance between Labor and the LINO party the better will Labor do in the next election.”

    So you would rather Labor continues to side with the Coalition then?

    To defeat the LNP, Labor must also defeat the LINOs. This might take another 40 years, but it will happen eventually.

  27. Julian Andrew
    @JulianAndrew63
    ·
    23m
    Morrison asked whether acute Covid19 cases will be left in India: “Rapid antigen testing is a requirement and a negative test to get on board a flight to Australia. I’m sure that’s what all Australians would expect.”

    Do all Australians expect our govt to abandon sick Aussies?

    The answer is obviously Yes.

  28. zoomster says:
    Friday, May 7, 2021 at 7:01 am
    Kay Setches, former Vic Labor MP, 76 years old is nominating for Hawke and encouraging as many Labor women as possible to do so, too.

    If you put your hand up, there’s a group of women who will organise signatures for your nomination.
    ____________
    Isn’t the problem that a 1000 women could nominate – but only 3 decide who gets the nomination (because there is no valid ALP membership in Victoria?)

  29. N

    Labor must defeat idiocy like your posts in their thinking.

    I disagree with FredNK on Adani.
    However at least he/she does not deny reality.

    Labor has to abandon the hate the Greens thing if it’s going to get on the same page as Biden.
    It’s called reality.

  30. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, May 7, 2021 at 10:00 am

    Yup. Capital is fungible:
    replaceable by another identical item; mutually interchangeable.

    This view implicitly regards the people of China as expendable…as having no recognisable human worth. This is a colonialist, imperialist and racist view of a people.

    It is more of the same from the quoted poster ….more sino-phobia.

  31. I see Morrison is now rewriting the history of quarantine facilities. He says “Jane Halton asked for it and we’ve done it at Howard Springs.”

    Bit of time intervened there, Scomo.

  32. N

    Speaking of seeing reality.

    Cat is right and you are wrong.
    Oppose Dutton’s war mongering is correct. However don’t take the trade only view. We have security concerns and security and being with the USA will and always was going to win over trade with China.

    It would be a different story if China was a democracy. China’s loss will be India’s gain. It makes Morrison’s attitude to India even worse of course.

  33. guytaur says:
    Friday, May 7, 2021 at 11:39 am
    N

    Labor must defeat idiocy like your posts in their thinking.

    I disagree with FredNK on Adani.
    However at least he/she does not deny reality.

    Labor has to abandon the hate the Greens…

    Oh, you mistake me. I do not hate the Greens. Rather, I can see they detest Labor. They never miss a beat. They campaign against Labor 24/7. They always have.

    I want Labor to succeed. To do so they will have to overcome all their opponents, including the LNP and the Greens. The culture makes this exceedingly difficult. But it will happen eventually.

    If Labor were to align themselves with the Greens then the LNP would never lose. Never. They would go on winning into the indefinite future. Labor have to resist the Greens. This is existential for them.

  34. John Hewson
    @JohnRHewson
    ·
    33s
    Unfortunately we have moved from Farce to High Farce sinking in Spin with Govt’s mess of the India Travel Ban and failure to accept full responsibility for quarantine. Surely can’t sell a once a week mercy flight and Howard Springs as an honest and effective solution?

  35. guytaur says:
    Friday, May 7, 2021 at 11:43 am
    N

    Speaking of seeing reality.

    Cat is right

    C@t is sino-phobic. You have no understanding whatsoever of history. I disagree with you both. I could declare my disagreement is profound. But there’s nothing profound about the reactionary mind. You’re both reactionaries.

  36. N

    I don’t believe you. Every post you make about the Greens is the same hateful position as Murdoch in destroying the Greens.

    This while the political damage is happening to the right of the political spectrum.

    You are busy defending the LNP by saying the Greens are Labor’s enemy. The LNP and right wing parties are Labor’s political enemies. The Greens just compete with Labor.

    Edit: You are wrong on China too. This ends my engagement with you today.

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