Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: January to March

Big movement to Labor in the smaller states in the latest Newspoll breakdowns, but nothing of what might have been expected on gender.

My assertion in the previous post that we faced a dry spell on the polling front hadn’t reckoned on Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, published today in The Australian. These combine the four Newspoll surveys conducted this year into a super-poll featuring various breakdowns from credible sample sizes (though I’d note that nothing seems to have come of talk that new industry standards would require that such breakdowns be provided in each poll individually, in a new spirit of transparency following the great pollster failure of 2019).

The latest numbers offer some particularly interesting insights into where the Coalition has been losing support over recent months. Whereas things have been reasonably stable in New South Wales (now 50-50 after the Coalition led 51-49 in the last quarter of 2020) and Victoria (where Labor’s lead narrows from 55-45 to 53-47), there have been six-point shifts in Labor’s favour in Western Australia (where the Coalition’s 53-47 lead last time has been reversed) and South Australia (51-49 to the Coalition last time, 55-45 to Labor this time). Labor has also closed the gap in Queensland from 57-43 to 53-47.

It should be noted here that the small state sample sizes are relatively modest, at 628 for WA and 517 for SA, implying error margins of around 4%, compared with around 2.5% for the larger states. I also observed, back in the days when there was enough state-level data for such things to be observable, that state election blowouts had a way of feeding into federal polling over the short term, which may be a factor in the poll crediting Labor with a better result than it has managed at a federal election in WA since 1983.

The gender breakdowns notably fail to play to the script: Labor is credited with 51-49 leads among both men and women, which represents a four-point movement to Labor among men and no change among women. There is also nothing remarkable to note in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings, with deteriorations of 7% in his net rating among men and 8% among women.

Further results suggest the government has lost support more among the young (Labor’s lead is out from 61-39 to 64-36 among those aged 18 to 34, while the Coalition holds a steady 62-38 lead among those 65 and over), middle income earners (a three-point movement to Labor in the $50,000 to $100,000 cohort and four-point movement in $100,000 to $150,000, compared with no change for $50,000 and below and a two-point increase for the Coalition among those on $150,000 and over), non-English speakers (a four-point decline compared with one point for English speakers) and those with trade qualifications (a four-point movement compared with none among the university educated and one point among those without qualifications).

You can find the full results, at least on voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack, where you can navigate your way through tabs for each of the breakdowns Newspoll provides for a full display of the results throughout the current term. Restoring a permanent link to all this through my sidebar is part of the ever-lengthening list of things I need to get around to.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,852 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: January to March”

Comments Page 30 of 58
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  2. IAsha Leu says:
    Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 8:49 pm

    Only dummies think I like communist or totalitarian states.

    Sure like every Government they do some stupid stuff. But you need to realise some benefits of their way of doing things.

    I’m just blind stupid racist white person after all.

  3. Hi Asha,

    Do you mean the Labor’s special Platform Conference 2021?

    Nothing really objectionable in that document.

    Best,

    Lars

  5. Zerlo says:
    Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 8:54 pm
    boerwar says:
    Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 8:52 pm

    Whales do get hunted down in Japanese waters though.
    __________-
    Everybody knows they are the cockroaches of the sea.

  6. Said Scotty as he clarified matters before further clarifying that does not mean he will not at a later stage advise not not to NOT have the AstraZeneca Vaccine.
    ———————
    Morrison needs to do more pressers. He is beginning to remind me of the sermon in Mr Bean goes to church.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=bh__g-ZZ6WA

  7. Zerlo:

    Totalitarian state.

    Next it will be our very own thoughts.

    I thought you liked totalitarian states.

    Dutton might be a fascist PoS, but he’s an amateur compared to your heroes in the Xi regime.

    The big difference, of course, is that I can go to Canberra and very publicly say that Dutton is doing a terrible job and be safe legally (in fact, I’d probably draw cheers from any audience I might have.) Also, the country has the opportunity every few years to legally remove him from power. Finally, potatoes haven’t been banned and images of them censored in Australia because of mocking comparisons hurting his ego.

  10. Promos laziness is biting him in the arse again, like with the fires his management of covid vaccines has again shown to be quite lacking.

    Scomo obviously thought he didn’t have to do anything just like his idol John Howard, no longer can he just do the marketing and the highly polished speeches.

    But unfortunately for him these difficult times actually do require a real government!!

  11. Medicine is all about risk vs benefit and with no Covid it’s clearly not worth the risk to anyone under 65 to have the AZ vaccine.
    As a population that might not be true and if covid returns that might not be true.

  12. Doesn’t Australia have laws and institutions that prevent Dutton from arresting and locking up anyone he doesn’t like even that 40ish% of foolish peasants who didn’t preference him at the last election?

  14. IF (note that word) the Morrison Government start to get badly tarnished by the vaccine rollout bungle and Labor are able to cut through on that, Labor really ought to consider challenging the notion that it was Morrison’s leadership that got us through the worst days of the COVID crisis. Knock that piece of armour right off.

    Again, IF.

  15. davidwh says:
    Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 9:06 pm
    Doesn’t Australia have laws and institutions that prevent Dutton from arresting and locking up anyone he doesn’t like even that 40ish% of foolish peasants who didn’t preference him at the last election?
    ____________________
    I think Dutton isn’t saying he wants to arrest people, more that he wants to sue those people he believes defame him on social media?

  16. Don’t we all have that choice Lars? Of course most of us don’t have the government coffers to meet the legal costs.

  18. The AZ under 30..under 50 is a statistical beat up .
    For once Scotty is right.. the key words are as the Americans love to say “out of an abundance of caution”

    https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/03/30/blood-clots-and-the-az-vaccine-revisited

    The real concern is the heavy waiting of women affected 29 out of 31 cases.

    “Kupferschmidt passed on more information from Germany’s Paul-Ehrlich Institute just this morning. 2.7 million people have received the AZ/Oxford vaccine there, and 31 patients have been identified with cerebral venous thrombosis. Not all of those are HIT or VIPIT, though, because only 19 of the 31 had thrombocytopenia. There have been nine deaths, and as always, key questions are how many cases one would expect in the population that’s been dosed so far. Earlier this month, the figures were 1.7 million vaccinated and 7 cases of CVT, and the institute said that they would have expected about one case as normal background. The EMA, when they came out recommending the vaccine earlier this month, noted that figuring these background rates is not easy. But they found that if there is indeed an imbalance, it’s most noticeable in the younger age cohort and not in the older. The PEI mentioned today that of the 31 cases they have analyzed, 29 of them have been women, which certainly seems significant as well.”

  19. boerwar @ #3890 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 8:05 pm

    We’ve just passed day four since our first AZ jab.

    Other than a very mild ache in the arm, neither of us have suffered any side effects. I assume that this means that our immune systems are not up to scratch.

    Be that as it may….

    … do the clots only show up after jab 1 or do some of them show up after jab 2?

    Asking for a friend’s brother’s mother.

    BW:
    Both central venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) and VIPITS have occurred after both first & second shots of AZ (also Pfizer and Moderna – and the single shot J&J), but are (slightly) more common (or should that be less rare?) after the first. As far as I know, there is not much correlation between immediate symptoms and protective response to AZ.

  20. Zerlo in J’accuse mode of me:

    You either are a cop or know someone is a cop.

    Wrong on both counts. Flounder on, Zerlo, throwing out wild accusations like confetti.

    Lynchpin:

    WEISSENSTEINER v. THE QUEEN has nothing to do with “Kate’s” (now abandoned) complaint against Porter.

    Weissensteiner is mostly about what inferences can be drawn from the accused declining to testify. The Crown in Weissensteiner had at least some evidence: Weissensteiner’s conflicting and evolving stories, the disappearance of the “victims”, Weissensteiner’s possession and beneficial use of their property.

    In “Kate’s” case they haven’t got much more than, “You see, ladies and gentlemen of the jury, this lady walked into the Redfern cop-shop, and…”.

    There is no corroboration, and no independent evidence that the couple even shared a cab together, much less bodily fluids. And the only witnesses around are simply repeating a story that “Kate” herself declined to sign onto. And it was all 33 years ago.

    Not a good start.

  21. davidwh says:
    Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 9:11 pm
    Don’t we all have that choice Lars? Of course most of us don’t have the government coffers to meet the legal costs.
    _________________
    We do – and I think if Dutton chooses to sue an individual for defamation he would have to meet his own costs and any order for costs out of his own personal resources – not on the government dime. Apparently he has an extensive property portfolio so I assume he has the means to sue.

    I haven’t really seen anybody willing to test him – after Larissa Walters twitter apology to Dutton.

  22. Sceptic we would need to know the gender break up of that 2.7 million in particular for those under 50. I read an article tonight that suggested females were over represented in the younger age groups as emphasis was given to those working in areas like health and education.

  23. “ As far as I know, there is not much correlation between immediate symptoms and protective response to AZ.”
    I’ve read there is no correlation.

  24. citizen @ #1246 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 2:31 pm

    Bucephalus says:
    Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 4:02 pm

    He will get the opportunity if the ABC decide to go to court in the defamation case against them unless the settle prior to that with a public apology.

    Ita Buttrose would have OK’d the original story. In the current climate she will probably opt to have the matter thrashed out in court.

    Indeed. Even if the ABC loses the case, there’ll be enough shade thrown on Porter to forever tarnish him even more than he is now. One small loss for the ABC, one giant leap for the Australian body politic (with apologies to Neil Armstrong).

    As I stated yesterday, Porter’s political career was over long before the recent controversies. He signed his own political death warrant when he sided with Clive Palmer over WA. At the time that may have been nothing more than idle speculation on my part. However the state election showed beyond all reasonable doubt that that topic has moved from the realms of speculation firmly into territory where the balance of probabilities needs to be calculated, with the end calculation resulting in not much chance of Porter coming out ahead.
    ~~~~~~
    Off topic, but relevant to Neil Armstrong and the Apollo 11 moon landing there is an excellent documentary that’s been recently added to the Netflix library about that very topic simply titled Apollo 11. What makes it unique is that we’ve probably all seen the footage taken from the perspective of the astronauts with audio from the ground crew in the background. This doco however uses split screen technology which marries up footage of the astronauts as well as that of the ground crew. There is also no “after the fact” narrator involved stringing the various events together. All of the talking is done in real time fashion by the actual people involved. Highly recommended if you haven’t seen it already.

  25. Dio
    “Medicine is all about risk vs benefit and with no Covid it’s clearly not worth the risk to anyone under 65 to have the AZ vaccine.”
    Seriously is that a serious statement ?

    March 25 2021…
    In AstraZeneca’s announcement of topline interim results from its U.S. trial, the company said it looked specifically for CVST cases among participants and there were none. About 32,500 people were in the trial, including more than 20,000 receiving the vaccine.

    Clots in the U.S.

    In the U.S., a Miami physician died following complications of immune thrombocytopenic purpura (ITP) after his first dose of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine. ITP is a rare autoimmune condition in which the body generates autoantibodies to its own platelets, resulting in low platelet counts, blood clots, and bleeding if the platelet count drops very low. About 50,000 adults are diagnosed with ITP in the U.S. per year. Risk is increased in young women and people with other autoimmune conditions.

    https://www.medpagetoday.com/special-reports/exclusives/91813

  29. Sceptic @ #3974 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 9:25 pm

    Dio
    “Medicine is all about risk vs benefit and with no Covid it’s clearly not worth the risk to anyone under 65 to have the AZ vaccine.”
    Seriously is that a serious statement ?

    March 25 2021…
    In AstraZeneca’s announcement of topline interim results from its U.S. trial, the company said it looked specifically for CVST cases among participants and there were none. About 32,500 people were in the trial, including more than 20,000 receiving the vaccine.

    Clots in the U.S.

    In the U.S., a Miami physician died following complications of immune thrombocytopenic purpura (ITP) after his first dose of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine. ITP is a rare autoimmune condition in which the body generates autoantibodies to its own platelets, resulting in low platelet counts, blood clots, and bleeding if the platelet count drops very low. About 50,000 adults are diagnosed with ITP in the U.S. per year. Risk is increased in young women and people with other autoimmune conditions.

    https://www.medpagetoday.com/special-reports/exclusives/91813

    Sceptic:
    It is unlikely that rare complications (like VIPITs, HITs or ITP) would have a detectable signal in clinical trials (which have, typically, 1,000-10,000 participants). One needs the millions involved in monitoring post-trial use to pick up these complications. That’s why it was the Germans ( Norwegians) who first picked he HITs story. The VIPITs cases were actually first detected in the US with Pfizer & Moderna.

  30. Previous to today’s announcement by Morrison, I wonder whether females taking the OC pill (they would just about all be <50), had an even higher risk of clots if they were given the AZ vaccine?

  31. Scotty is treading a very very dangerous line here.. grasping at straws to cover up his incompetence without undermine the inevitable reliance on AZ to achieve population immunity .
    He will fail as usual

  32. Oh great. Now we’ve got learned speculation by Rumpole of the Snoozeville Bailey that Kate Thornton’s alleged rape by Porter probably didn’t even happen because she refused to sign on to the ‘story’ about it!

    God give me strength.

  33. Rational Leftist @ #1161 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 8:58 pm

    Zerlo:

    Totalitarian state.

    Next it will be our very own thoughts.

    I thought you liked totalitarian states.

    Dutton might be a fascist PoS, but he’s an amateur compared to your heroes in the Xi regime.

    The big difference, of course, is that I can go to Canberra and very publicly say that Dutton is doing a terrible job and be safe legally (in fact, I’d probably draw cheers from any audience I might have.) Also, the country has the opportunity every few years to legally remove him from power. Finally, potatoes haven’t been banned and images of them censored in Australia because of mocking comparisons hurting his ego.

    I’m surprised images of pandas haven’t been banned in China. 😉

  35. The current head of the ACL is more supercilious than the former… He claimed that 90% of those undergoing a gender change regret it. When challenged about a source, he reduced that to between 76% and 80%. And when further questioned by the host, he said he didn’t know where the information he spruiked came from but that he’d post it on the ACL FB site. And it seems that a number of his disciples were in the studio audience judging by the applause after delivering his screed. He then went on to defend the money the ACL’s spending to resurrect Folau’s RL career after one of the panel members suggested that the money would be better spent on relieving poverty. And, he looks like James Patterson’s brother. Aunty should’ve vetted the audience more closely – it sounded like a Billy Graham crusade.

    Oh, that was tonight’s Q + A.

  38. C@tmomma @ #1449 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 6:52 pm

    So what magically happens to you the day AFTER you turn 50 that allows you to take the AZ vaccine successfully? 🙂

    That’s similar to a question I asked myself in 1980 (the year I turned 18). I wasn’t allowed to vote for that because the federal election of that year was held three weeks(ish) before my 18th birthday. What was going to happen in just 3 weeks that would make me mature enough to be able to cast my vote?

  39. C@tmomma:

    Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 9:54 pm

    [‘Mavis,
    QandA’s ratings have tanked. They are probably glad to have any audience.’]

    After tonight, the ratings should dip further, though I must say that the other guests were quite good, which were Trent Zimmerman, a First Nations woman, the Member for Lilley, and an author whose name I didn’t catch.

  40. Oh dear. The South African Variant has made it to Brazil, where they are doing nothing about stopping the spread of COVID-19. hell on earth, here we come:

    Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro resisted calls for a nationwide lockdown to halt the out-of-control spread of coronavirus cases, even as the nation reached several grim milestones, including a record number of deaths.

    “We’re not going to accept these policies of ‘stay home, close everything, lock down,’ ” he said on a visit to the southern city of Chapeco, Agence France-Presse reported.

    “There’s not going to be a national lockdown,” said Bolsonaro, who fell ill with covid-19 last year. “Our army isn’t going into the streets to force the Brazilian people into their homes.”

    The country’s public health institute, Fiocruz, had recommended stricter regulations to prevent the collapse of the health-care system. On Tuesday, Brazilian authorities said that nearly 4,200 people died due to covid-19 in a single day — the highest daily death toll there since the pandemic began.

    The recent outbreak has been fueled by the more virulent P.1. variant first identified in the Amazonian city of Manaus. It has since spread across Brazil, driving waves of more severe illness, hospitalization and death, including among younger patients.

    Now scientists there say that they have identified Brazil’s first case involving a similar, more transmissible variant discovered in South Africa. That discovery could portend an even worse phase of the pandemic.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/04/08/coronavirus-covid-live-updates-us/#link-VLSXVMEVJNAAJCL3MRBIE3HSSU

  41. Danama Papers @ #1192 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 9:58 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1449 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 6:52 pm

    So what magically happens to you the day AFTER you turn 50 that allows you to take the AZ vaccine successfully? 🙂

    That’s similar to a question I asked myself in 1980 (the year I turned 18). I wasn’t allowed to vote for that because the federal election of that year was held three weeks(ish) before my 18th birthday. What was going to happen in just 3 weeks that would make me mature enough to be able to cast my vote?

    My son turned 18 on the day of the 2016 election! He didn’t seem any more mature either. 🙂

  42. C@tmomma wrote:

    Oh great. Now we’ve got learned speculation by Rumpole of the Snoozeville Bailey that Kate Thornton’s alleged rape by Porter probably didn’t even happen because she refused to sign on to the ‘story’ about it!

    There is a difference between something happening (or not happening), and proving that it happened (or didn’t happen), as you well know. This is especially true where courts, layers and millions of dollars are involved in running a prosecution bound to fail.

    I know you are certain of Christian Porter’s guilt, and equally certain that anyone who defends his right to due process is some kind of woman-hater. But nevertheless, just because you believe it, doesn’t make it so.

    A year ago, you expressed similar certainty about Pell’s guilt, only for your certainty to be overruled 7-0 in the High Court, despite your fire and brimstone. You don’t seem to have learnt the lesson that calling other people names and misquoting them doesn’t mean zip when it comes to the law.

    Pursuing criminal cases based on political allegiance, shouting loudly, #WhatTwitterReckons and squealing about misogyny only makes things worse for everybody. I know you can’t see how that could possibly be true, but it is.

  43. a r
    With the Australasian Bubble all set to go you could pop over to NZ. Wall to wall Pfizer over there. Ardern has already said in reply to a question about ‘foreign types’ in NZ that the vaccine is free to everyone who is in NZ.

  44. Just something in the language at the moment.

    Seems that references to the vaccine rollout more and more include a negative. “Vaccine Rollout Bungle” ………..

    Remember how pervasive and tenacious was “Pink Batts Disaster” ?? 🙂

  45. Bushfire Bill,
    The old Pell High Court result defense. Yay, he got off on a legal technicality.

    Frankly, abusive, intolerant old man, I don’t give a damn what you think! I lost respect for your opinion long ago. You only keep reinforcing the soundness of my decision.

    And don’t bother replying, I’m off to bed. Unless that is, it is to stroke your own ego. You like doing that. A lot.

  48. poroti

    We now have the perverse situation where 80+ types like my mum get AZ yet under 30s are likely to get a better vaccine.. well done.

  50. CC
    Yes a few of us pointed that out. We were told we were wrong and to trust the super expert Murphy and we were just amateurs.

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