Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: January to March

Big movement to Labor in the smaller states in the latest Newspoll breakdowns, but nothing of what might have been expected on gender.

My assertion in the previous post that we faced a dry spell on the polling front hadn’t reckoned on Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, published today in The Australian. These combine the four Newspoll surveys conducted this year into a super-poll featuring various breakdowns from credible sample sizes (though I’d note that nothing seems to have come of talk that new industry standards would require that such breakdowns be provided in each poll individually, in a new spirit of transparency following the great pollster failure of 2019).

The latest numbers offer some particularly interesting insights into where the Coalition has been losing support over recent months. Whereas things have been reasonably stable in New South Wales (now 50-50 after the Coalition led 51-49 in the last quarter of 2020) and Victoria (where Labor’s lead narrows from 55-45 to 53-47), there have been six-point shifts in Labor’s favour in Western Australia (where the Coalition’s 53-47 lead last time has been reversed) and South Australia (51-49 to the Coalition last time, 55-45 to Labor this time). Labor has also closed the gap in Queensland from 57-43 to 53-47.

It should be noted here that the small state sample sizes are relatively modest, at 628 for WA and 517 for SA, implying error margins of around 4%, compared with around 2.5% for the larger states. I also observed, back in the days when there was enough state-level data for such things to be observable, that state election blowouts had a way of feeding into federal polling over the short term, which may be a factor in the poll crediting Labor with a better result than it has managed at a federal election in WA since 1983.

The gender breakdowns notably fail to play to the script: Labor is credited with 51-49 leads among both men and women, which represents a four-point movement to Labor among men and no change among women. There is also nothing remarkable to note in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings, with deteriorations of 7% in his net rating among men and 8% among women.

Further results suggest the government has lost support more among the young (Labor’s lead is out from 61-39 to 64-36 among those aged 18 to 34, while the Coalition holds a steady 62-38 lead among those 65 and over), middle income earners (a three-point movement to Labor in the $50,000 to $100,000 cohort and four-point movement in $100,000 to $150,000, compared with no change for $50,000 and below and a two-point increase for the Coalition among those on $150,000 and over), non-English speakers (a four-point decline compared with one point for English speakers) and those with trade qualifications (a four-point movement compared with none among the university educated and one point among those without qualifications).

You can find the full results, at least on voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack, where you can navigate your way through tabs for each of the breakdowns Newspoll provides for a full display of the results throughout the current term. Restoring a permanent link to all this through my sidebar is part of the ever-lengthening list of things I need to get around to.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,852 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: January to March”

Comments Page 29 of 58
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  1. Verschlimmbesserung

    I prefer Jaeger’s German Word of the day, but this one describes the strategy of putting the eggs in the local production of AZ basket.

  2. Stephen Dziedzic
    @stephendziedzic
    ·
    1h
    Interesting snippet. I’m told
    @dfat
    has asked the Biden Administration to supply the documents/information it relied on to substantiate its statement (in the State Dept human rights report) that China’s government is committing genocide against Uyghurs in Xinjiang 1/

    I’m also told these docs have now been passed to the Australian Government. I’m *not* jumping to conclusions here, or suggesting Australia is about to suddenly start using the same language 2/

    When Payne was asked last month if Australia believes that China’s mistreatment of Uyghurs amounted to genocide, she said the government was examining the issue closely. I imagine this is part of that process 3/

  3. I recall that blood clots were one of the many “scare stories” about catching COVID-19. (Lung scarring, heart damage, neurological disorders, clickbaitophila etc. etc.)

    I couldn’t find any stats, though.

  6. From The Guardian: It’s also worth underlining that when Morrison was asked when we can expect the new time table, he said “I don’t think anyone can expect that anytime soon”.

    Scotty is in a world of hurt.

  7. I had a very low opinion of the Morrison Government’s capacity to deliver anything other than corruption and bullshit at both of which they actually excel.
    But that opinion was actually far, far too generous.
    They are fucking hopeless.
    Useless as tits on a bull.

  9. Newsltd and lib/nats held a royal commission into pinkbatts

    Will Newsltd and lib/nats do the same for this vaccine incompetence by Morrison and his cronies

  11. If they don’t get their shit together very soon, this bungled rollout has the potential to turn into a serious problem for the government, far moreso than the recent scandals.

    Offering promises of pork when people just want the damn vaccine isn’t going to fly.

  12. Griff says:
    Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 8:12 pm
    Verschlimmbesserung

    I prefer Jaeger’s German Word of the day, but this one describes the strategy of putting the eggs in the local production of AZ basket.
    _______
    Here is a link to my favourite German word:

    https://www.thelocal.de/20181204/word-of-the-day-das-luftschloss/

    I am working on my script and have a number of vignettes ready – relating to the general alienation and disappointment of those who encounter party politics.

  16. Scott says:
    Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 8:15 pm
    Newsltd and lib/nats held a royal commission into pinkbatts

    Will Newsltd and lib/nats do the same for this vaccine incompetence by Morrison and his cronies
    __________________________
    Do you think the deep state will allow it Scott?

  18. Jaeger @ #1116 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 8:16 pm

    If they don’t get their shit together very soon, this bungled rollout has the potential to turn into a serious problem for the government, far moreso than the recent scandals.

    Offering promises of pork when people just want the damn vaccine isn’t going to fly.

    He’ll give it his best shot.


    Kristina Keneally
    @KKeneally

    First it was #SportsRorts, then #SaferSeatsRorts, now
    @M_McCormackMP
    has been caught with his fingers in the Building Better Regions Fund to handpick projects against departmental advice.

    This Government spends taxpayer money like it’s Liberal & National Party money.

  19. Lars Von Trier says:

    Do you think the deep state will allow it Scott?
    ——–

    No but you coalition supporters should be condemning Morrison and his cronies

  22. Scott says:
    Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 8:21 pm
    Lars Von Trier says:

    Do you think the deep state will allow it Scott?
    ——–

    No but you coalition supporters should be condemning Morrison and his cronies
    _________
    What’s the point if the deep state says no? These people can be ruthless ?

  23. Bernard Keane
    @BernardKeane

    Both the major problems encountered by the government in its rollout — foreign export bans and problems with individual vaccines — were predictable and predicted.
    And yet, despite tens of millions wasted on consultants by the government, here we are.

  24. C@tmomma @ #3896 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 8:10 pm

    rhwombat @ #1095 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 8:05 pm

    C@tmomma @ #3875 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 7:53 pm

    rhwombat,
    Because you’re around, do you have an opinion about how the AZ vaccine would have interacted with a person <50 who has haemophilia wrt this blood clot condition? Thanks 🙂

    Most forms of haemophilia would be unlikely to form central venous thrombi, but we do not have sufficient information on the interaction with the platelet-specific mechanism that causes VIPITS yet. I wouldn’t go there in the low-COVID risk environment of Australia at present.

    What about if the person with haemophilia is a front line health worker?

    If in Australia, the risk of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 is currently negligible, even for front line HCWs. That’s the problem. At present the very small risk of AZ (or indeed Pfizer) vaccine outweighs the even smaller risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2 for most people. That’s why ATAGI shat in Scummo’s schadenfreude soup this evening. It is a very different situation overseas, but we’re not there.

  25. 1. Compare current events to changes in PM since the Coalition last came to power (15 marks)

    a) Describe whether Abbott was rolled for less or more than this and why

    b) Describe whether Turnbull was rolled for less or more than this and why

  26. boerwar says:
    Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 8:01 pm

    Don’t compare the two.

    At least China doesn’t have vaccine debate or issues with population don’t want to receive it.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/06/world/asia/china-vaccination-drive.html

    To get it done, the government has turned to a familiar tool kit: a sprawling, quickly mobilized bureaucracy and its sometimes heavy-handed approach. This top-down, all-out response helped tame the virus early on, and now the authorities hope to replicate that success with vaccinations.

    Thanks for reading The Times.
    Subscribe to The Times
    Already, uptake has skyrocketed. Over the past week, China has administered an average of about 4.8 million doses a day, up from about one million a day for much of last month. Experts have said they hope to reach 10 million a day to meet the June goal.

  27. rhwombat @ #1128 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 8:27 pm

    C@tmomma @ #3896 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 8:10 pm

    rhwombat @ #1095 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 8:05 pm

    C@tmomma @ #3875 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 7:53 pm

    rhwombat,
    Because you’re around, do you have an opinion about how the AZ vaccine would have interacted with a person <50 who has haemophilia wrt this blood clot condition? Thanks 🙂

    Most forms of haemophilia would be unlikely to form central venous thrombi, but we do not have sufficient information on the interaction with the platelet-specific mechanism that causes VIPITS yet. I wouldn’t go there in the low-COVID risk environment of Australia at present.

    What about if the person with haemophilia is a front line health worker?

    If in Australia, the risk of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 is currently negligible, even for front line HCWs. That’s the problem. At present the very small risk of AZ (or indeed Pfizer) vaccine outweighs the even smaller risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2 for most people. That’s why ATAGI shat in Scummo’s schadenfreude soup this evening. It is a very different situation overseas, but we’re not there.

    Just read on Twitter that Dr Alan Cheng is chair of ATTAGI and he is very risk averse.

  28. Troy Simpson
    @TroyPSimpson

    Despite promising to be frank and clear, I don’t know what the PM is telling us.

    You know it.

  29. The difference between Xi and Morrison is that Xi casually sent Covid to the rest of the world and Morrison hasn’t given us the vaccine.

  32. zoomster @ #1150 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 9:24 am

    Some interesting stats – ’35 best countries to raise a family’ –

    https://www.asherfergusson.com/raising-a-family-index/

    Australia rates highly for health and education.

    European nations, in particular the Scandinavian nations dominate that list. Australia is the first non-European nation to appear (at #14, with New Zealand and Canada close behind at #16 and $17 respectively).

    So technically Australia ranks as the highest non- European nation (a reason to be proud of to be sure), however the gloss on that is somewhat tarnished by only ranking at #14 overall.

  35. Danama Papers says:
    Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 8:36 pm
    _____________________
    Nice post but I think you’ll always be remembered here for outing the ending of GoT on here hours before it screened!

  37. The race is on. All those 49yo’s hoping Morrison gets it together quickly enough so they can get a Pfizer before they turn 50 and get the clotty Astra instead.

  38. Zerlo says:
    Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 8:39 pm
    It amazes me the fake news that is allowed on this site when other platforms would be banning the users.
    ______________
    Your thoughts on Dutton threatening social media posters for defamation?

    Could this extend to belligerent PB posters?

  39. Jaeger @ #3904 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 8:13 pm

    I recall that blood clots were one of the many “scare stories” about catching COVID-19. (Lung scarring, heart damage, neurological disorders, clickbaitophila etc. etc.)

    I couldn’t find any stats, though.

    Turns out that some of the scare stories were real (doi:10.1001/jama.2021.5612). The mechanisms involved seem to be related to the platelet factor 4 antibody (PF4Ab) abnormality that causes both VIPITS & HITS – which changes the way that venous clots form and are dissolved – as well as how platelets and new blood vessels are controlled. Platelets are busy little buggers, with lots of ACE2 and TMPRSS2 receptors that the SARS-CoV-2 spike proteins attach to. Most of human immunobiology is at very short remove from witchcraft.

  40. The way Xi casually sent Covid out into the world:

    1. Failed to stop the wild meat section of the wet markets creating millions of opportunities for zoonoses to jump species. Sure enough.
    2. Failed to stop a fifth of the world’s illegal wildlife trade which created the preconditions for 1.
    3. Hid Covid data from the rest of the world then. Is still hiding it now.
    4. Jailed Chinese medicos who spoke out against his negligence.
    5. Allowed millions of potentially infected chinese people to travel to the rest of the world in early 2020.
    6. Was so sensitive about his fuck ups that he loaded a swingeing set of trade punishments on Australia for daring to suggest inspections in China.
    7. Successfully resisted the efforts of the WHO Team to gain access to vital data, in particular the 2019 blood samples.

    I blame the United States.

  42. Lars:

    Asha – can I say this ever so politely – do you think your objective in your assessment of this vaccine crisis?

    Probably not, no.

    Seems to me look at how rare hand sanitisers were in March 2020 (and outrageously overpriced) and how ubiquitous they were by September 2020 that its not unlikely something similar happens with vaccines.

    Um. What?

    The hand sanitizer (and toilet paper, pasta, etc) shortages were just market forces at work – the pandemic / panicking idiots resulted in demand way outstripping supply, eventually supply caught up. Its not like its difficult or expensive to make hand sanitizer, there just wasn’t enough available at the time because businesses weren’t expecting a global pandemic.

    The vaccine shortage is partly a result of similar supply/demand forces, yes – everyone wants a vaccine but they take time and money to create – but the similarities end there.

    Will they be readily available in September (or whenever)? Sure, maybe. But maybe not, too. I daresay Scomo is praying its the former scenario right about now.

    It also seems there are a fair few vaccine phobes out there too – woman of a certain age are one group which are distinctly unwelcoming of any jab for instance, presumably for fear of pregnancy risks.

    And?

    I never said every single voter in the country is going to want to tar and feather the Morrison government for this. All that matters is that enough swing voters in certain seats are pissed off enough to vote Labor instead.

    I am not sure anybody is really going to mark the Feds down for this stuff.

    I think people will. If the government hadn’t overpromised to such a degree, then, yeah, there may not be repercussions… but they did. The longer this wears on, the more its going to bite them in the ass.

    Will it be enough to lose them the election? I’m not going to pretend to know the answer to that one. But if your proposed scenario of ubiquitous vaccines by the final quarter of 2021 has not eventuated, well, I’d would far prefer to be in Albo’s shoes than Scomo’s right about then.

    At some point the debate will turn to whom is best to lead post Covid – I haven’t heard one word on what the Opposition wants to do post Covid, have you?

    Mate, what are you talking about? Labor’s federal platform is pretty much built around preparing and rebuilding in a post-Covid nation.

  47. Zerlo:

    Totalitarian state.

    Next it will be our very own thoughts.

    I thought you liked totalitarian states.

    Dutton might be a fascist PoS, but he’s an amateur compared to your heroes in the Xi regime.

  48. “The advice here today is not to NOT have the AstraZeneca vaccine –

    Said Scotty as he clarified matters before further clarifying that does not mean he will not at a later stage advise not not to NOT have the AstraZeneca Vaccine.

  50. sprocket_ says:
    Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 8:48 pm
    It seems Lib von Tryhard can only pick on commenters – posting stupid inanities.
    ______________
    Thanks Sprockets.

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