My assertion in the previous post that we faced a dry spell on the polling front hadn’t reckoned on Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, published today in The Australian. These combine the four Newspoll surveys conducted this year into a super-poll featuring various breakdowns from credible sample sizes (though I’d note that nothing seems to have come of talk that new industry standards would require that such breakdowns be provided in each poll individually, in a new spirit of transparency following the great pollster failure of 2019).
The latest numbers offer some particularly interesting insights into where the Coalition has been losing support over recent months. Whereas things have been reasonably stable in New South Wales (now 50-50 after the Coalition led 51-49 in the last quarter of 2020) and Victoria (where Labor’s lead narrows from 55-45 to 53-47), there have been six-point shifts in Labor’s favour in Western Australia (where the Coalition’s 53-47 lead last time has been reversed) and South Australia (51-49 to the Coalition last time, 55-45 to Labor this time). Labor has also closed the gap in Queensland from 57-43 to 53-47.
It should be noted here that the small state sample sizes are relatively modest, at 628 for WA and 517 for SA, implying error margins of around 4%, compared with around 2.5% for the larger states. I also observed, back in the days when there was enough state-level data for such things to be observable, that state election blowouts had a way of feeding into federal polling over the short term, which may be a factor in the poll crediting Labor with a better result than it has managed at a federal election in WA since 1983.
The gender breakdowns notably fail to play to the script: Labor is credited with 51-49 leads among both men and women, which represents a four-point movement to Labor among men and no change among women. There is also nothing remarkable to note in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings, with deteriorations of 7% in his net rating among men and 8% among women.
Further results suggest the government has lost support more among the young (Labor’s lead is out from 61-39 to 64-36 among those aged 18 to 34, while the Coalition holds a steady 62-38 lead among those 65 and over), middle income earners (a three-point movement to Labor in the $50,000 to $100,000 cohort and four-point movement in $100,000 to $150,000, compared with no change for $50,000 and below and a two-point increase for the Coalition among those on $150,000 and over), non-English speakers (a four-point decline compared with one point for English speakers) and those with trade qualifications (a four-point movement compared with none among the university educated and one point among those without qualifications).
You can find the full results, at least on voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack, where you can navigate your way through tabs for each of the breakdowns Newspoll provides for a full display of the results throughout the current term. Restoring a permanent link to all this through my sidebar is part of the ever-lengthening list of things I need to get around to.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1346 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 7:35 pm
This sort of thing takes a lot of time and plenty of repetition before it starts to soak into the general consciousness, but I reckon we’re pretty well there now.
davidwh
Count your blessings me lad. In the UK over 30’s look to be made expendable. But seriously. The rate of the clot drama is way low BUT the cost vs benefit for young’uns is not as clear cut as it is for oldies. What with them having such low covid-19 death rates and all.
Heard some English medical bwana on the radio and there have been 19 deaths from 20 million doses so almost literally a million to one of deadly serious clotting probs.
Lizzie @ #1054 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 7:36 pm
Fibrinolytics, iirc. But there’s a real Dr around here atm. 🙂
The nine papers say : “On Thursday morning, the Prime Minister said the risk of severe side effects with the AstraZeneca vaccine is much lower than with common drugs including paracetamol and the oral contraceptive pill.”
Morrison will deny he ever said it.
WTF? Greg the time traveling Hunt?
We already have vaccines due later this year?
AZ is already already to over 50s, when Phase 2a starts in May (maybe.)
Paul Meek
@PaulMeekPerth
FFS they’ve let Brendan Murphy near a microphone again.
😆
davidwh @ #1325 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 7:29 pm
Considering that older voters vote LNP.
Do you think anyone under 50 will want to go within cooee of the AZ vaccine now!?!
Those over 50 still are rusted on lib/nats supporters ?
Morrison and his cronies will claim they are not to blame for the over 50’s continue to be gullible to lib/nats and their media propaganda units
This……..this is not a good presser.
Greg Jericho
@GrogsGamut
·
4m
Morrison: “Ultimately here, the choice is with individual Australians and their doctor.”
So why the emergency presser??
“The advice here today is not to NOT have the AstraZeneca vaccine – there is not a prohibition on the use of the
AstraZeneca vaccine for persons under 50. There is an expression of a preference. ”
Cripes
What a shambles
Apparently there is a 25 percent death rate for those who have gotten the rare blood clotting side effect
P.1’s scary:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9447843/Brazils-Covid-Fukushima-P1-variant-killing-young-people-threatens-destabilise-world.html
C@t
I’m thinking even the over 50 may not want the astra zeneca vaccine now. It is a shambles.
Where is all the Pfizer vaccine they had ordered. And weren’t we at the front of the queue?
So what happens to the millions of az vaccine now
Do the states and territories thrown them out ?
The lib/nats thought they were in trouble if Abbott and Turnbull were still leaders at the upcoming elections , if they keep Morrison as leader it shows they will have given up
Lizzie @ #3848 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 7:36 pm
Yes – but it’s not the conventional heparin or enoxaparin, both of which can cause the HIT-like syndrome that VIPIT mimics. There are agents like danaparoid or fondaparinux which can be injected – or direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) like apixiban.
C@tmommasays:
Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 7:40 pm
Do you think anyone under 50 will want to go within cooee of the AZ vaccine now!?!
No one will want it…..I’m over 50…..I don’t.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NuAKnbIr6TE
Eric Topol
@EricTopol
The very rare brain blood cots—CVST—with the Astra Zeneca vaccine occur 50X more frequently than mRNA vaccines and are getting a lot of attention today, even before dueling press conferences of UK and EU regulators. Causality should not be in question.
The EU regulator’s statement today asserting benefit of the AZ vaccine and that the CVST blood clots should be “listed as a very rare side effect of the vaccine”
https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-ema-finds-possible-link-very-rare-cases-unusual-blood-clots-low-blood
As of April 4th, 169 cases of CVST and 53 splenic vein thromboses out of 34 million people vaccinated
Frequency ~1/100,000
And more in
@kakape
‘s thread
The UK regulator says people under 30 shouldn’t get the AZ vaccine
https://wsj.com/articles/astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-receives-backing-from-eu-regulator-11617804998?mod=djemalertNEWS
@MaximColch
@DanMichaelsWSJ
But the evidence for any discrete age cutoff of risk in unclear
Graphic by
@alex_freeman
shows the UK calculation of benefit vs harm by age group
Just when we thought that Billy McMahon was the pits, along comes Malcolm Fraser.
When we got over just how much the Fraser government was the pits, along comes John Howard.
Just when we thought that perhaps John Howard was perhaps competent and we should trust the Libs again, along comes Tony Abbott.
Just when we thought that nothing could be as bad as the clustercuss that was the Abbott-Credin axis of evil, along comes the Turnbull omnishambles.
Just when we had reached peak stupid, behold ScoMo ‘hold my beer’.
Fuck me. Australia. You have voted for these fuckwits. Repetitively.
Christ we deserve Xi to put the stick about. Surely even Boer would agree with that!
They say that Zak Kirkup has been approached to lead the Liberals before the next Federal election ….
So, phase 2 (50-70) due to start ‘around the middle of the year’. Considering the under 50s will be following that cohort, why in the name of all that’s infectious are we having this press briefing at this ungodly hour.
rhwombat,
Because you’re around, do you have an opinion about how the AZ vaccine would have interacted with a person <50 who has haemophilia wrt this blood clot condition? Thanks 🙂
Ah well, we can still get our free flu shots and my wife received a reminder to get her 70+ shingles shot.
Chemist Warehouse at the Canberra airport shopping centre today looked to be doing a roaring trade in flu shots. They have rented an adjacent shopfront for this.
We’ll just wait a while for the Covid shots (unless there is a big outbreak here).
Rhwombat
I suppose having a platelet check beforehand would also be an insurance but I suppose that would be expensive.
Fast forward to April 2022.
Scott Morrison announced that the vaccine program is on target to vaccinate four million people by October 2024.
ItzaDream @ #1078 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 7:53 pm
I’m happy to have gleaned that Novovax won’t be delivered until Q3 at the earliest.
*shakeshead*
It’s The Empty Cupboard Talk Show
Greg Jericho
@GrogsGamut
Morrison: “As I said, we received this advice formally at 7:00 this evening”
(pssst – you called the presser at 6:36pm)
‘Andrew_Earlwood says:
Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 7:51 pm
…
Christ we deserve Xi to put the stick about. Surely even Boer would agree with that!’
Don’t blame me. I didn’t vote for either Xi or Morrison.
So will CSL retool now to produce the Pfizer vaccine?
Morrison is now a full clone of Trump As with Trump before the USA election ,
Gloating that they were the ones who saved humanity with the vaccine
It has backfired
If they don’t get their shit together very soon, this bungled rollout has the potential to turn into a serious problem for the government, far moreso than the recent scandals. This is something the vast majority of the Australian public are affected by in some form of another, and if* enough people come to the view that Scomo is the reason that they’re still wearing masks at the shops, that they can’t go overseas, that they can’t visit Grandma,.that their business has had to shut it’s doors during another lockdown, the Coalition could be in real trouble.
* And it’s still a big “if”, I might add. Don’t ever underestimate Morrison’s capacity to bullshit his way out of hot water.
“ Don’t blame me. I didn’t vote for either Xi or Morrison.”
I voted for Linda Burney for what it’s worth.
Greg Hunt went so far by putting the Liberal Party logo on the vaccine
No wonder Scomo hates social media. They can check what he says against the truth and distribute it.
I hope all the people who said we should trust the idiots in charge of the vaccine roll out won’t be posting here for a while. Leave it to the experts, not the shills.
We’ve just passed day four since our first AZ jab.
Other than a very mild ache in the arm, neither of us have suffered any side effects. I assume that this means that our immune systems are not up to scratch.
Be that as it may….
… do the clots only show up after jab 1 or do some of them show up after jab 2?
Asking for a friend’s brother’s mother.
C@tmomma @ #3875 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 7:53 pm
Most forms of haemophilia would be unlikely to form central venous thrombi, but we do not have sufficient information on the interaction with the platelet-specific mechanism that causes VIPITS yet. I wouldn’t go there in the low-COVID risk environment of Australia at present.
It’s all right for Morrison to tell people that they (and a doctor) must now weigh up the risks of taking AstraZeneca. He is safe and sound with his Pfizer, along with the hangers-on who surround him.
Thanks muchly, rhw. 🙂
Near total reliance on the AZ vaccine turns out to have been a bad idea. Who would have thought that?
Asha – can I say this ever so politely – do you think your objective in your assessment of this vaccine crisis?
Seems to me look at how rare hand sanitisers were in March 2020 (and outrageously overpriced) and how ubiquitous they were by September 2020 that its not unlikely something similar happens with vaccines.
It also seems there are a fair few vaccine phobes out there too – woman of a certain age are one group which are distinctly unwelcoming of any jab for instance, presumably for fear of pregnancy risks.
I am not sure anybody is really going to mark the Feds down for this stuff. At some point the debate will turn to whom is best to lead post Covid – I haven’t heard one word on what the Opposition wants to do post Covid, have you?
rhwombat @ #1095 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 8:05 pm
What about if the person with haemophilia is a front line health worker?
Lizzie @ #3877 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 7:55 pm
Checking the platelets beforehand wouldn’t help much. VIPITS is like HITs – it takes between ~2 and 14 days for the platelets to start falling.
Grog said the Anti Vaxxer fb pages would be going off right about now. 😆
lizzie @ #1082 Thursday, April 8th, 2021 – 7:21 am
The real thing I noticed was his use of the words “in principle” which can only be interpreted as pre-emptive arse covering for when the inevitable fvck-up occurs.
Amy Remeikis
@AmyRemeikis
·
11m
Pfizer has been recommended for 16-50 year olds – on current ABS data there’s 12m 16-49 year olds in Australia.
We have 20m doses on order – enough for 10m people. So far, we’ve received 1m of those doses. More is coming, but it will take time.
Quote Tweet
Samantha Maiden
@samanthamaiden
· 16m
This is the original rollout plan which gives a good insight into huge number of under 50 s in Australia – under these changes they will no longer be vaccinated with AZ a big change to strategy @newscomauHQ twitter.com/samanthamaiden…
https://mobile.twitter.com/samanthamaiden/status/1380096620319010817
I know more than a few people well under the age of fifty who have been hanging out for the vaccine in the hopes of travelling overseas again. Most were realistic enough to realise that they would be waiting a while no matter what, but this has got to be a kick in the teeth.