Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: January to March

Big movement to Labor in the smaller states in the latest Newspoll breakdowns, but nothing of what might have been expected on gender.

My assertion in the previous post that we faced a dry spell on the polling front hadn’t reckoned on Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, published today in The Australian. These combine the four Newspoll surveys conducted this year into a super-poll featuring various breakdowns from credible sample sizes (though I’d note that nothing seems to have come of talk that new industry standards would require that such breakdowns be provided in each poll individually, in a new spirit of transparency following the great pollster failure of 2019).

The latest numbers offer some particularly interesting insights into where the Coalition has been losing support over recent months. Whereas things have been reasonably stable in New South Wales (now 50-50 after the Coalition led 51-49 in the last quarter of 2020) and Victoria (where Labor’s lead narrows from 55-45 to 53-47), there have been six-point shifts in Labor’s favour in Western Australia (where the Coalition’s 53-47 lead last time has been reversed) and South Australia (51-49 to the Coalition last time, 55-45 to Labor this time). Labor has also closed the gap in Queensland from 57-43 to 53-47.

It should be noted here that the small state sample sizes are relatively modest, at 628 for WA and 517 for SA, implying error margins of around 4%, compared with around 2.5% for the larger states. I also observed, back in the days when there was enough state-level data for such things to be observable, that state election blowouts had a way of feeding into federal polling over the short term, which may be a factor in the poll crediting Labor with a better result than it has managed at a federal election in WA since 1983.

The gender breakdowns notably fail to play to the script: Labor is credited with 51-49 leads among both men and women, which represents a four-point movement to Labor among men and no change among women. There is also nothing remarkable to note in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings, with deteriorations of 7% in his net rating among men and 8% among women.

Further results suggest the government has lost support more among the young (Labor’s lead is out from 61-39 to 64-36 among those aged 18 to 34, while the Coalition holds a steady 62-38 lead among those 65 and over), middle income earners (a three-point movement to Labor in the $50,000 to $100,000 cohort and four-point movement in $100,000 to $150,000, compared with no change for $50,000 and below and a two-point increase for the Coalition among those on $150,000 and over), non-English speakers (a four-point decline compared with one point for English speakers) and those with trade qualifications (a four-point movement compared with none among the university educated and one point among those without qualifications).

You can find the full results, at least on voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack, where you can navigate your way through tabs for each of the breakdowns Newspoll provides for a full display of the results throughout the current term. Restoring a permanent link to all this through my sidebar is part of the ever-lengthening list of things I need to get around to.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,852 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: January to March”

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  1. From earlier today. Apologies for the repetition:

    As noted above, additional glosses on Morrison Government vaccine strategies information slowly coming to the fore. Vaguely unsurprising, absolutely disgraceful.

    Dr Michelle Ananda-Rajah
    @rajah_mich
    ·
    1h
    Some staggering insights into our vaccine procurement problems. Not enough agreements, disinterest from officials (yes I’ve heard this too), no fault vaccine compensation scheme missing which ruled out Moderna & JJ. Defies belief

    Shane Pearse
    @ShanePearse
    · Apr 6
    Replying to @latikambourke and @GregHuntMP
    There are many odd elements to the vaccine roll out. Here’s a Pharma industry perspective on some of the stranger ones, from http://Pharmadispatch.com

    Extracts from the Pharmadispatch.com article attachments to the Shane Pearse tweet:

    Department of Health secretary Dr Brendan Murphy asserted in August last year that CSL could repurpose and start manufacturing the AstraZeneca vaccine in just a few weeks and then dismissed the idea of a global ‘queue’ for doses. The prime minister claimed in September that Australians would be ‘among the first in the queue’ to receive a COVID-19 vaccine and then said in late January that over four million doses would be administered by late March or early April.

    Put simply, at the time they were made, these claims were either plain wrong or predictably not going to happen.

    A key question is whether these claims were said in hope or reflected the actual plan? Maybe it would be more worrying if they did reflect a plan given they were so obviously wrong.
    …
    Yet Australia irretrievably lost the chance to achieve an accelerated rollout, akin to those in Israel, the US and the UK when it failed to act in the early period of the pandemic to secure agreements for doses of the investigative vaccine candidates. It really is as simple as that.

    Any number of people in the industry can share stories of unreturned correspondence, telephone calls and a general disinterest from officials until several months into the pandemic. By the time serious discussions got underway, companies had already committed billions of doses to other countries, leaving Australia towards the end of the queue.

    Australia’s refusal to adopt a vaccine no-fault compensation scheme has drastically limited the federal government’s options for vaccines. Johnson & Johnson and Moderna are two companies that will only supply their COVID-19 vaccines to countries with these schemes. For context, Australia is close to on its own in not maintaining a vaccine no-fault compensation scheme, with programs in the UK, US, Europe, Switzerland, Canada, South Korea and New Zealand.

    Then there was the decision not to engage Australia’s full-line pharmaceutical wholesalers in the distribution of the vaccine with the bizarre and late decision to run a limited tender that was then finalised late.

    The federal government pays these wholesalers a special allocation of over $200 million every year to support the investment in and maintenance of infrastructure that is used for distributing, you guessed it, medicines and vaccines. Yet it is not being used for the COVID-19 vaccine. It should not be forgotten that this infrastructure has performed remarkably well … and it is currently and seamlessly delivering millions of flu vaccine doses.

    Always soft, always late, always second rate for Australia, Scott Morrison.

  2. Cat
    “ There isn’t a global shortage of the vaccine, btw. America is producing so much, after they finish vaccinating their own population their surplus will begin vaccinating the world.”

    I think there is a shortage right now, but there won’t be after June 2021. So yes, why aren’t we looking at extra orders of Pfizer, Moderna, Novovax or J&J? No other option but local AZ/CSL production is being considered, and the cost of delays to the economy in terms of length of time for restrictions is not being considered.

  3. Soc,
    This is a wild, educated guess, but considering how Morrison and Frydenburg are cooking up a Wow! Budget bottom line to act as a bright shiny thing that entrances the voters all the way to the election and which money they can use to pork barrel the hell out of the place to get a tired, corrupt, incompetent government over the line again, it wouldn’t surprise me to find out that they refused to put their hands in their pockets to give CSL the money to tool up quickly and comprehensively to do the vaccine production right. They are notorious penny pinchers, one look at the NBN they foisted upon the country will tell you that (even though it ended up costing more than Labor’s) and considering Trump gave $638 million to his vaccine manufacturers to get with his Operation Warp Speed project, I imagine CSL would have needed something similar.

    Scratch beneath the surface of what they have been up to and I bet you would find a second rate show, held together with sticky tape and chewing gum as they crank out the vaccines, having been only provided with 2 bits to rub together to make it all happen.

  5. Others calling/continuing to call for Australia’s existing vaccine procurement strategy to be amended:

    Dr Michelle Ananda-Rajah
    @rajah_mich
    ·
    3h
    100% agree with this. The US will soon enter vaccine surplus and we should be negotiating now. @ScottMorrisonMP needs to take charge and stop delegating. Call @POTUS
    Quote Tweet

    Henry Madison
    @RageSheen
    · 4h
    @billbowtell @rajah_mich up to 600 million surplus vaccine doses possibly available in US 2nd half of 2021. Oz needs another 20 million Pfizer doses to do the whole over-18 population with that vaccine. Time for diplomacy? Domestic production no faster. https://aljazeera.com/news/2021/3/20/us-is-set-to-have-a-vaccine-surplus-how-should-it-use-the-doses

    Others noting current state of play:

    Steven Hamilton
    @SHamiltonian
    ·
    Apr 6
    Yet Australia has…. zero Moderna orders.
    Quote Tweet

    The Wall Street Journal
    @WSJ
    · Apr 6
    U.S. production of Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine is set to increase after the drugmaker reached a deal with contract manufacturer Catalent to boost output https://on.wsj.com/3rWJYb4

    Steven Hamilton
    @SHamiltonian
    ·
    2h
    The trouble is it still comes down to a lack of diversity in supply. The EU isn’t blocking Pfizer, Moderna, or J&J. Our doses were blocked because so many of our eggs are in the AZ basket. With more contracts, we’d have all the doses we need.
    @profholden

    Steven Hamilton
    @SHamiltonian
    ·
    13h
    If this is truly what is holding up our placing Moderna and J&J orders, then that is an absolutely stunning government failure. Journos need to ask policymakers if this is the case.

    Cc
    @profholden
    Quote Tweet

    Shane Pearse
    @ShanePearse
    · Apr 6
    Replying to @latikambourke and @GregHuntMP
    There are many odd elements to the vaccine roll out. Here’s a Pharma industry perspective on some of the stranger ones, from http://Pharmadispatch.com

  6. Cat

    I can only guess but my hypothesis is money is the motive i.e. profit for CSL and whoever has shares in it. That includes at least one Liberal MP (Sharma). Local production is not cheaper than imported.

    I say this because Xanthippe says that there was a lot of work for CSL to set up the large scale local production. It was always going to take time to establish the process. When were they told to do so? September 2020? January 2021?

    Morrison and Hunt seem to have had no understanding of how long it was really going to take to get local production under way. So my hypothesis of the reasons for the decision making is greed/vested interest in terms of going with local manufacture, and incompetence in terms of not understanding how much delay the switch to local production would cause.

  8. Socrates says:
    Wednesday, April 7, 2021 at 11:53 pm

    “I can only guess but my hypothesis is money is the motive i.e. profit for CSL and whoever has shares in it. That includes at least one Liberal MP (Sharma).”

    Most Australians have some ownership of CSL through their superannuation fund.

  9. mundo says:
    Wednesday, April 7, 2021 at 7:06 pm
    “ABC Hobart leading for the third night in a row with negative Labor story.
    Tonight Labor is ‘in turmoil’….apparently, oh, and according to the jorno also in ‘chaos’ which is ‘continuing’…apparently.”

    Your counter argument is……?

    It’s not like the ABC are making up shit.

  12. Yeah what the heck is going on in Hobbitown ALP ?

    It seems like 2 rats and a failed expulsion.

    I guess it must be a bit like council politics – somebody ate all the tasty sandwiches type resentments.

  13. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/07/rates-of-parkinsons-disease-are-exploding-a-common-chemical-may-be-to-blame

    There’s a member of my wider family who has been diagnosed with Parkinson’s who experienced prolonged and intense exposure to TCE while he was a student, between 35 and 40 years ago when he worked as a painter and over many later years when involved in the maintenance, repair and restoration of wooden boats.

    This chemical is dangerous but is still in very wide use in Australia even though it has been banned in many other jurisdictions.

  15. Lars Von Trier says:
    Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 5:36 am
    Yeah what the heck is going on in Hobbitown ALP ?

    It seems like 2 rats and a failed expulsion.
    ———–

    If they were in the liberal party they would be protected and given a promotion

  16. Scott Morrison’s own record

    Dodgy preselection to be the member for cook

    Sacked twice – Australia and New Zealand tourism

    Dodgy deal to be promoted to liberal party leader and prime minister

    Protects and promote his corrupt liberal party cronies

    Incompetent and deliberately tells non truth

  17. Tassie Labor are in a terrible mess ATM, thanks to a ramping up of factional hostilities. Party power brokers seem to have worked out some time back that Labor has zero chance of winning, so are now using the election campaign largely as an opportunity to settle old scores and position themselves for a battle over the leadership post-election.

    What sort of preselection process could shut out a proven performer in Dean Winter but come up with someone like this Fabiano Cangelosi bloke who is now publicly attacking the party’s policies? (BTW, he’s right – the policies re pokies and protests are bad – but ALP candidates are surely supposed to toe the party line at all times.)

    The key problem in all of this is the dinosaur old left faction, which is dominated by United Voice and the AMWU. It holds all the power in the party but -with the possible exception of David O’Byrne – it seems to be incapable of putting forward candidates with any sort of broader electoral appeal. So, instead, they seem to want to do all that they can to tear down the few charismatic pollies from the other factional groups: Singh, White and now Winter.

    Sad, isn’t it?

  19. Here’s a very comprehensive article outlining what America’s alternatives are once there vaccine supply turns to surplus around Mid-May:

    WASHINGTON — Biden administration officials are anticipating the supply of coronavirus vaccine to outstrip U.S. demand by mid-May if not sooner, and are grappling with what to do with looming surpluses when vaccine scarcity turns to glut.

    President Biden has promised enough doses by the end of May to immunize all of the nation’s roughly 260 million adults. But between then and the end of July, the government has locked in commitments from manufacturers for enough vaccine to cover 400 million people — about 70 million more than the nation’s entire population.

    Whether to keep, modify or redirect those orders is a question with significant implications, not just for the nation’s efforts to contain the virus but also for how soon the pandemic can be brought to an end. Of the vaccine doses given globally, about three-quarters have gone to only 10 countries. At least 30 countries have not yet injected a single person.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/26/us/biden-coronavirus-vaccine.html

  21. A deluge of bad news re the Astrazenica vaccine is likely to nail Promo and his motley crew to their own petard.

    As Socrates asks, Where are those 20m Pfizer and 51m Novavax shots ‘secured’ by Hunt? Where are the contingencies and diversification? Promo better be praying in tongues this weekend that there is no leakage from quarantine and a serious breakout in Australia.

    Which leads me to bad policy making, with primary and secondary objectives increasing risks. An example from the Rudd years was conflating economic stimulus (primary) and carbon reduction via home insulation (secondary) – add to this poor execution by a government department who had no experience whatsoever in running such a program, and risks were realised.

    No we have addressing the pandemic via mass vaccination (primary) and local manufacture so Promo can bignote himself as a middle power to which the region will genuflect to get supplies (secondary). So all the eggs in the AZ local manufacture basket – and sending out the motley crew to spread lies and obfuscation. Risks are being realised.

  24. Since the covid era , election trends so far

    Australia , New Zealand , USA
    Governments ( Australian states/territories) who are health over the economy been retained

    Governments (Trump) who are economy over health have not been retained

    Federal and NSW libs/nats are following trump

  25. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    A frustrated John Hewson writes that Barnaby Joyce’s latest antics do nothing to move Australia forward.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/barnaby-joyce-s-latest-antics-do-nothing-to-move-australia-forward-20210407-p57h52.html
    Shane Wright concludes his three part review of our economy, saying that the sharp lift in house prices through the past year has amplified the focus on the RBA and its role.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/last-kick-of-the-can-property-market-reckoning-coming-20210317-p57bfc.html
    China’s ambassador to Australia has told Canberra to stop criticising the country over human rights abuses in Xinjiang, saying nations should know Beijing will respond, writes Anthony Galloway.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/if-we-are-provoked-we-will-respond-china-goes-on-offensive-over-treatment-of-uighurs-20210407-p57h6p.html
    With the government on the ropes, Anthony Albanese has a fighting chance, opines Frank Bongiorno.
    https://theconversation.com/with-the-government-on-the-ropes-anthony-albanese-has-a-fighting-chance-158129
    The editorial in the SMH says that it is a good time to reconsider the RBA’s role in light of the persistence of very low inflation and zero interest rates.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/rba-review-could-look-at-ways-to-avert-the-next-crisis-20210407-p57h6b.html
    The successor to JobKeeper can’t do its job. There’s an urgent need for JobMaker II, argue three economists in The Conversation.
    https://theconversation.com/the-successor-to-jobkeeper-cant-do-its-job-theres-an-urgent-need-for-jobmaker-ii-158391
    The UK and US botched the COVID fight but got it right on vaccines. Australia has done the opposite, argues Shaun Carney.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/lowering-the-bar-do-we-no-longer-expect-the-government-do-big-things-20210406-p57gri.html
    It appears increasingly likely that the AstraZeneca vaccine may cause a new rare clotting condition. As experts work out how to treat and prevent it, Australia needs to accept its obligation to care for the few people who may be harmed in pursuit of the public good, argue professors Julie Leask and Ian Kerridge.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/clotting-case-shows-we-need-compensation-scheme-for-vaccine-injuries-20210407-p57h7n.html
    The Canberra Times editorial simply says that the vaccine roll-out is taking too long.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7198299/virus-vaccine-rollout-is-taking-too-long/?cs=14258
    Scott Morrison insists he is merely setting out the simple facts. But his lengthy recitation of the reasons why the supply of vaccines is delayed is all about dealing with perception, says Jennifer Hewett who is not at all taken in by him.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/pm-s-facts-lose-their-political-currency-20210407-p57h7f
    Meanwhile, the vaccine developed by the University of Queensland was derailed in December, but the research team have re-engineered it with promising early data.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/australia-s-home-grown-vaccine-making-a-comeback-20210407-p57h7v
    Josh Butler fact-checks the government’s vaccine spin and promises.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2021/04/08/vaccine-rollout-fact-check/
    Nearly two-thirds of young men want a vaccine as soon as it’s available, but for women aged 18-24 the figure is less than 50 per cent. Bloody hell!
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/young-women-most-reluctant-to-get-covid-19-jab-study-finds-20210407-p57h79
    Christopher Knaus reports that doctors have urged the Australian government to provide greater certainty on vaccine supply, stating they continue to be frustrated by delivery delays and insufficient stock.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/apr/08/australian-doctors-urge-government-to-give-greater-certainty-on-covid-vaccines
    As international travellers return to Melbourne, will it be third time lucky for Victoria’s controversial hotel quarantine system, wonders Professor Michael Toole.
    https://theconversation.com/as-international-travellers-return-to-melbourne-will-it-be-third-time-lucky-for-victorias-controversial-hotel-quarantine-system-158419
    Emails obtained by The Age show that some doctors employed by Healthcare Australia – which provides clinical services at most of the state’s quarantine hotels – have been working in second jobs, which was banned by the state government in an effort to minimise transmission of COVID-19.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/quarantine-hotel-doctors-working-at-more-than-one-site-20210407-p57has.html
    Whenever the chance to advocate for higher wages arises, the Morrison government declines, writes Greg Jericho. He says the government and business groups say they want stronger wage growth, but they never do anything that would actually see wages really grow.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2021/apr/08/whenever-the-chance-to-advocate-for-higher-wages-arises-the-morrison-government-declines
    A rise in the minimum wage won’t hurt Australia’s recovery. It will help it, argues Alison Pennington.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/07/a-rise-in-the-minimum-wage-wont-hurt-australias-recovery-it-will-help-it
    It takes a particular kind of gutlessness for the federal government to push for no real increase in wages without being game to say it. That’s what the 109-page government submission to the Fair Work Commission boils down to – nudge nudge, wink wink, let’s have another stuff-all minimum wage increase that also impacts a couple of million workers on awards, says Michael Pascoe.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2021/04/07/michael-pascoe-wages-austerity/
    The banks have $178 billion sitting on deposit with the Reserve Bank, earning zero interest. It was $155 billion a month ago. This is newly created money. In crude terms, the RBA is “printing” money hand over fist, but why are the banks not lending it? Why is there no nation-building infrastructure program like the US? Michael West investigates.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/psst-about-that-lazy-178-billion-the-banks-have-parked-at-the-reserve-bank/
    Matthew Elmas tells us to brace for a budget squeeze as rising prices for petrol and groceries are making life more expensive after COVID-19.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2021/04/08/budget-inflation-prices/
    More from Elmas as he writes that a year-long bill paying binge ended in February as credit card debt spiked when government income support was wound back. He says new data released by the Reserve Bank on Wednesday shows credit card debt increased by $18.4 million over the month, despite the value of purchases and number of outstanding accounts falling.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2021/04/07/credit-card-debt-super/
    Poor management of Australia’s broadband network has resulted in a problem that the Government won’t fix and has left consumers paying for it, writes Paul Budde.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/paul-budde-broadband-users-will-pay-for-failed-nbn-policies,14960
    According to Alexandra Smith, a group of jumpy NSW backbenchers has succeeded in defying cabinet, humiliating Matt Kean and dumping Malcolm Turnbull from a new clean energy role.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/turnbull-s-fate-sealed-by-skittish-backbenchers-20210407-p57h7e.html
    Richard Mulgan unloads on this government’s arrogant responses to examination by Senate committees.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7186978/the-governments-response-could-not-have-been-more-arrogant/?cs=14329
    And similarly, proposed changes to boost the nation’s critical infrastructure laws will remove key oversight functions regarding decisions made by senior figures in Home Affairs and the Australian Signals Directorate, the government watchdog has warned.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7196860/govt-wants-to-remove-key-oversight-functions-for-home-affairs-asd/?cs=14350
    David Crowe tells us that Anne Ruston and her state counterparts have agreed on July dates for the summit to shape a new national plan to prevent violence against women and children.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/date-set-for-women-s-summit-to-stop-the-rot-of-domestic-violence-20210407-p57hbc.html
    Jess Irvine reckons fixing childcare would be a start on the PM’s women problem.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/fixing-childcare-would-be-a-start-on-pm-s-women-problem-20210407-p57h5e.html
    Katina Curtis reports that more than 230 domestic violence services are asking the nation’s women’s safety ministers to give them a decisive funding boost as they face a massive increase in demand that is not subduing.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/pandemic-s-domestic-violence-spike-has-not-subsided-20210406-p57gui.html
    New legislation aimed at knocking underperforming superannuation funds out of the market could leave the most vulnerable Australians at the mercy of unscrupulous fund promoters, the Senate Economics Legislation Committee has heard.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/superannuation/2021/04/07/super-legislation-downside/
    Victorian senator Kim Carr is “on death row”, Labor powerbrokers say, but the veteran left-wing warrior has vowed to fight for his career and is being backed by one of the state’s most powerful union leaders.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/veteran-labor-senator-kim-carr-on-death-row-but-vows-to-fight-on-20210407-p57ha1.html
    Base rates for new leases have fallen by up to 20 per cent but big chains are pushing for turnover-based rents and resisting landlords’ claims for online sales. The AFR says that the retailers are winning the war.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/golden-days-are-over-retailers-win-battle-as-rents-reset-20210406-p57gxw
    Australian exporters are defying Chinese trade bans, limiting the damage of Beijing’s punitive ­economic campaign by finding new markets for ­almost all affected products, writes Ben Packham in The Australian.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/sanctions-fail-exporters-defy-chinese-trade-bans/news-story/7f94d7c4937af7682e4ecd275093ae5e
    The owner of the Whyalla steel mill, Sanjay Gupta, says it is close to sealing a refinancing deal that may quell a push by creditor Credit Suisse to place it in liquidation.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/whyalla-owner-races-towards-refinancing-to-stave-off-credit-suisse-liquidation-push-20210407-p57h4x.html
    Lydia Lynch reports that the AEC is investigating whether numerous Facebook pages allegedly run by besieged Queensland MP Andrew Laming breached the Electoral Act, as they did not include political authorisation disclosures. The guy is a fool.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/electoral-watchdog-to-investigate-andrew-laming-s-facebook-pages-20210407-p57h61.html
    And Now Sarah Martin reveals that Laming awarded a $550,000 grant to a rugby club with links to one of his staff members as part of the government’s controversial female sports facilities grants program.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/apr/08/liberal-mp-andrew-laming-awarded-550000-grant-to-rugby-club-linked-to-his-staffer
    The vaccine rollout in Papua New Guinea will require overcoming huge logistical hurdles, but there’s a second looming health crisis and that is tuberculosis.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/whyalla-owner-races-towards-refinancing-to-stave-off-credit-suisse-liquidation-push-20210407-p57h4x.html
    China’s development of a central bank-issued digital version of its currency is gathering pace and could pose a long-term threat to US dollar dominance, explains Stephen Bartholomeusz.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/while-the-world-dithers-china-prepares-to-unleash-a-digital-currency-20210407-p57h59.html
    The Philippines is considering expelling a Chinese diplomatic spokesman in Manila in the latest twist of a new dispute over the South China Sea, writes Chris Barrett.
    https://www.theage.com.au/world/asia/pushing-the-limits-of-covid-diplomacy-philippines-threatens-to-expel-chinese-official-20210407-p57h65.html
    In the US, Joe Biden is backing the unions. Britain can only look on in envy, says Martin Kettle.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/07/us-joe-biden-unions-britain-uk-political-leader-covid
    Trump’s White House leaked like a sieve, but things have changed explains the Washington Post’s Paul Farhi.
    https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/trump-s-white-house-leaked-like-a-sieve-things-have-changed-20210407-p57h0n.html

    Cartoon Corner

    Matt Golding is in fine form today!




    David Rowe

    Cathy Wilcox

    Andrew Dyson

    Peter Broelman

    Glen Le Lievre

    Mark Knight

    Johannes Leak just can’t help himself

    Alan Moir

    John Shakespeare

    From the US







  27. In America, the Fed isn’t too worried about all the money Pres Biden is pumping into the economy:

    “Participants agreed that the path of the economy would depend significantly on the course of the virus, including progress on vaccinations,” according to the account of the March 16-17 meeting. The Fed left interest rates unchanged at near-zero at that meeting and continued buying bonds at a pace of $120 billion per month — two policies meant to stoke spending by keeping borrowing cheap.

    The Fed took sweeping actions last year to support the pandemic-damaged economy, and investors are now watching for any hint of when it might begin to roll some of those policies back. Because officials are expected to slow their bond purchases before they raise interest rates, investors are closely watching for any sign of when buying might taper off.

    Fed officials have said they want to see “substantial further progress” toward their employment and inflation goals before slowing the program down, though they haven’t defined what would qualify as substantial.

    Officials last month “noted that it would likely be some time until substantial further progress toward the committee’s maximum-employment and price-stability goals would be realized,” the minutes said, adding that it would be important to communicate “well” ahead of making any change to the bond program.

    When it comes to the policy interest rate, Fed policymakers have been more clear-cut. They have said the Fed will keep the rate near zero until inflation has exceeded 2 percent and looks poised to stay higher for some time and until the labor market has returned to full employment.

    Since the Fed’s March meeting, vaccinations have continued at a steady clip in the United States, and the March jobs report showed that employers have been rehiring as state and local economies reopen. Still, there are about 8.4 million jobs missing compared with February 2020, when the pandemic began.

    Several officials at the Fed’s meeting noted that the recently passed $1.9 trillion stimulus program “could hasten the recovery, which could help limit longer-term damage in labor markets caused by the pandemic,” according to the minutes.

    But the central bank is not worried about runaway inflation as the government spends.

    While many Fed policymakers expect inflation to pick up this year, in part as the economy opens and supply races to keep up with demand, “participants generally anticipated that annual inflation readings would edge down next year.” And they characterized risks to the inflation outlook — basically the chances of higher- or lower-than-expected numbers — as “broadly balanced.”

  29. Rick @colonelhogans
    · 34m
    #ChristineHolgate gave watches to executives, within the rules of Australia Post. They were rewarded for signing a $200M deal with the banks that would help struggling privately owned Post Offices to survive. $200M deal!!!! She was shafted cause why? SHES A SUCCESSFUL WOMAN!

    ***

    @marxdeane
    3m
    The watches were given two years before Morrison’s confected outrage in Parliament, not as hinted at during the tough times of the #pandemic.
    A staged distraction as he wanted to deflect from rising #COVID19 deaths in #AgedCare and his poor handling of the virus.

    Look at his different treatment of his male mates who broke the rules.

  32. Urban Wronski
    @UrbanWronski
    ·
    6m
    Meanwhile, the govt has slyly imposed its Task Force Summit in July in a neocon hijacking. Invisible Min for Women, Marise Payne opens saying we begin looking at “all the *good things* we’re doing” for women?
    Violence rates haven’t changed in fifteen years, says Anne Summers.
    ***
    No evidence from yesterday’s presser that the women’s task force has had the decency to even read Kate Jenkins’ 930+ page report delivered to Porter Feb 2020. PM says they’ll respond to it. Haven’t yet.

    That was why Anne Ruston’s presser on consultation was such rubbish.


  33. Lars Von Trier says:
    Thursday, April 8, 2021 at 7:42 am

    Who would have thought there would be so much expertise about vaccine procurement strategy on pollbludger ?

    The problem for the government, even the dimmest will be asking the same questions soon. Even now there are articles in the papers asking why aren’t we ordering stuff for when the USA is finished.

  34. Morrison sees all these summits, consultations, taskforces and whatnot as just more marketing opportunities. Like the GBR, the problem was properly selling the Coalition’s wonderful credentials all along!

    Still not getting it.

  36. Thank you BK for the Dawn Patrol.

    Funnily enough, the vaccine rollout debacle doesn’t feature on the front page of the Daily Telecrap. The top half is taken up by Tommy Raudonikis (recently deceased NRL legend), the bottom half an ad for Harvey Norman, plus there’s a pointer to a story about someone dying in a hedge-trimmer accident.

  37. Victorian senator Kim Carr is “on death row”, Labor powerbrokers say,

    The ‘early contenders’, a’ think tanker’ and another lawyer . Just what parliament and Labor needs more of 🙁

    early contenders to replace the 65-year-old include Maurice Blackburn lawyer Josh Bornstein, 55, and think-tank director Ryan Batchelor,

  40. The DailyToiletPaper now reporting on AZ issues

    https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/world/coronavirus-world-updates-vaccinated-people-can-travel-at-low-risk-sachin-tendulkar-hospitalised/news-story/d8bf1c5b86d32aa249321ec0036a76f8

    And SMH providing more detail on the lies, half truths and misleading statements by Promo…

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/more-than-700-000-astrazeneca-doses-secretly-flown-to-australia-from-britain-20210407-p57hcl.html

  43. Gee, who saw this coming? Apart from just about everyone.

    While the small numbers make comparisons difficult, corporations don’t seem to have an immediate interest in other top Trump administration alums either. Roughly half of the S&P 500 companies have filed their 2021 investor disclosure reports, listing a total of 108 new or prospective board members, according to data from Insightia, which provides information to shareholders. No Trump Cabinet officials who served in the final quarter of his term are among those nominated.

    By this point in 2009, four major companies had lined up alums of George W. Bush’s Cabinet to serve as directors: global power company AES, oil and gas company Hess, chemical maker FMC, and United Technologies, the industrial conglomerate that has since merged with Raytheon.

    Headhunters and other corporate advisers say the calculus for executives at most large, publicly-traded companies is simple. Trump — the only president to be impeached twice, the second time on a charge he incited the mob that assaulted the Capitol in an attempt to overturn the presidential election results — left office with a majority of Americans strongly disapproving of his job performance. He remains a lightning rod for controversy and faces ongoing legal exposure from civil lawsuits and criminal investigations. Offering a board seat to anyone in his inner orbit risks inviting a revolt from customers, employees or shareholders.

    “Boards don’t need trouble or criticism,” one headhunter said. “If you want to stay away from all that potential tarnish, that’s easy: You just don’t go near it.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/04/07/former-trump-cabinet-officials-corporate-seats/

  44. The ‘Think Tank’ that poroti sniffs at because Ryan Batchelor leads it (and what would poroti rather have, no collective institution for the fostering of Progressive ideas and speakers from around the Progressive world?), is The McKell Institute.

  47. The real cause of Australia’s vaccination delays is that the government didn’t think there was any need to hurry because nobody was dying.
    …
    Professor Murphy’s revelation clarified the fundamental issue: The Australian government decided to go through normal TGA approval processes rather than use emergency authorisation as other countries have done.

    That was a mistake, born of complacency and over-confidence.

    If a deadly global pandemic that caused the fastest, deepest recession in history is not an emergency, it’s hard to know what is.
    …
    So while the state premiers have been seen to make decisions that are against their own political interests, but were the right thing to do for their citizens’ health, the federal government is perceived to be making political decisions, spinning them and then under-delivering on health.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2021/04/08/alan-kohler-vaccine-complacency/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020210408

  48. Mmmm –

    As her male counterparts sit, an EU President is left awkwardly standing

    Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s meeting on Tuesday with the European Union’s two presidents has raised eyebrows after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen appeared to be left standing while her male counterparts settled into two gilded chairs at the focal point of the room.

    In a video of the awkward moment in Ankara, von der Leyen seems unsure of where to sit, gestures with her right hand and says “ehm” as Erdogan and European Council President Charles Michel take their seats.

    Von der Leyen was eventually offered a seat.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/07/europe/ursula-von-der-leyen-turkey-eu-intl/index.html

  50. Thérèse Rein
    @Therese_Rein
    ·
    19m
    And while we are on this somewhat painful topic of #novaccinedosesforOz @ScottMorrisonMP, on what basis did you choose to 1. Go predominantly one type of vaccine 2. Make that one vaccine AZ 3. Not add more Pfizer, or some Moderna or some J and J?

    Cheapness?
    Influence of AZ mate?
    No sense of urgency?

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