My assertion in the previous post that we faced a dry spell on the polling front hadn’t reckoned on Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, published today in The Australian. These combine the four Newspoll surveys conducted this year into a super-poll featuring various breakdowns from credible sample sizes (though I’d note that nothing seems to have come of talk that new industry standards would require that such breakdowns be provided in each poll individually, in a new spirit of transparency following the great pollster failure of 2019).
The latest numbers offer some particularly interesting insights into where the Coalition has been losing support over recent months. Whereas things have been reasonably stable in New South Wales (now 50-50 after the Coalition led 51-49 in the last quarter of 2020) and Victoria (where Labor’s lead narrows from 55-45 to 53-47), there have been six-point shifts in Labor’s favour in Western Australia (where the Coalition’s 53-47 lead last time has been reversed) and South Australia (51-49 to the Coalition last time, 55-45 to Labor this time). Labor has also closed the gap in Queensland from 57-43 to 53-47.
It should be noted here that the small state sample sizes are relatively modest, at 628 for WA and 517 for SA, implying error margins of around 4%, compared with around 2.5% for the larger states. I also observed, back in the days when there was enough state-level data for such things to be observable, that state election blowouts had a way of feeding into federal polling over the short term, which may be a factor in the poll crediting Labor with a better result than it has managed at a federal election in WA since 1983.
The gender breakdowns notably fail to play to the script: Labor is credited with 51-49 leads among both men and women, which represents a four-point movement to Labor among men and no change among women. There is also nothing remarkable to note in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings, with deteriorations of 7% in his net rating among men and 8% among women.
Further results suggest the government has lost support more among the young (Labor’s lead is out from 61-39 to 64-36 among those aged 18 to 34, while the Coalition holds a steady 62-38 lead among those 65 and over), middle income earners (a three-point movement to Labor in the $50,000 to $100,000 cohort and four-point movement in $100,000 to $150,000, compared with no change for $50,000 and below and a two-point increase for the Coalition among those on $150,000 and over), non-English speakers (a four-point decline compared with one point for English speakers) and those with trade qualifications (a four-point movement compared with none among the university educated and one point among those without qualifications).
You can find the full results, at least on voting intention, in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack, where you can navigate your way through tabs for each of the breakdowns Newspoll provides for a full display of the results throughout the current term. Restoring a permanent link to all this through my sidebar is part of the ever-lengthening list of things I need to get around to.
KayJay,
You would be the last user that I would block! Although can we block our very busy and recently somewhat absent Bilbo? 🙂
Here is a novel thought.
Any nation targeting civilians in bombing campaigns are committing war crimes.
There is no moral pedestal there.
On China v the US.
It’s the same as Australia. We investigate and try to stop the powerful doing war crimes. Thus it’s possible to have Julian Assange publish whistleblower evidence. Ditto Australian whistleblowers forcing a war crimes investigation into our SAS conduct in Afghanistan.
That’s the difference between democracy and dictatorship like China. You actually get accountability and human rights in the public debate.
China showed what it thought of that by its very public actions against democracy activists in Hong Kong.
So yes the fact I can say both of our allies and us have been known to commit war crimes is one of the true strengths of democracy.
In China you can’t say that yes China commits human rights atrocities because you do not have free speech and government accountability
C@tmomma,
I think the pricks are on all sides of a cactus 🙂
Of course Peter Dutton is doing his best to destroy that free speech IMO.
@Paul_Karp tweets
Peter Dutton issues defamation threats to social media users. Not just @larissawaters – he said he would go after regular tweeters, and he seems to mean it. You’ll never guess what they called him to get threatened! (plz read)
#auspol #auslaw
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/apr/07/peter-dutton-issues-defamation-threats-to-social-media-users
Illusions of grandeur.
“Britain’s military spending has now overtaken Russia’s – a country 70x its size with more than double the population.”
@UnitedWorkersOz tweets
#BREAKING: McCormick workers have just voted to accept an offer from the company that gives them everything they asked for. Workers will keep ALL conditions that were under attack, receive yearly 3% pay rise & get a $5000 sign on bonus. Workers are strong when united! #auspol
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/04/06/newspoll-quarterly-breakdowns-january-to-march/comment-page-20/#comment-3587987
The UK has a much higher GDP (nearly double), a higher wage economy, no conscription (Russia does) and many overseas territories. These factors all increase UK defence spending.
As far as the UK is concerned and defence expenditure it is all to do with after-glow of Empire….Two spanking brand-new aircraft carriers, and undisclosed number of very advanced nuclear subs …of the hunter type and missile loaded yet a small standing army……..While the Conservatives are in office, no pocket is too deep for so-called defence…………Sandhurst, the Guards and all that pomp and ceremony to ensure Little England looks like it is important on the world stage……..
A Freudian slip?
[‘Scott Morrison has suffered an unfortunate slip of the tongue while talking about Health Minister Greg Hunt.
The Prime Minister was discussing the vaccine roll out during a press conference in Canberra on Wednesday when he accidentally appeared to call Mr Hunt an inappropriate swear word that rhymes with his last name.
‘On the 19th of February, Minister Cu… Hunt called the EU health minister to advocate for release of the AstraZeneca vaccine to Australia,’ Mr Morrison said, stumbling over his words.’] – Daily Mail
Police have arrested two men for possessing an improvised explosive device and extremist material as the head of Australian neo-Nazi group claims that their members’ homes was raided by authorities.
On Wednesday evening, a South Australian Police spokesperson told Business Insider Australia that they had carried out searches on the homes of people associated with an investigation into ideologically motivated violent extremism.
A 32-year-old man from Munno Para was arrested for possession of an improvised explosive device and possessing instructions for manufacturing explosive, prohibited and dangerous weapons.
A 28-year-old man from Surrey Downs was arrested for possession of extremist material.
“The investigation remains ongoing and there has been no known threat to any person or the public,” the police spokesperson said in an emailed statement.
The far right National Socialist Network is a relatively new Neo-Nazi group in Australia formed out of two previous groups, the Lads Society and Antipodean Resistance.
Until this year, the group had garnered media attention by placing stickers of their logos in public places and taking photos of their masked members at landmarks holding their flag, using social media to distribute this content for attention.
In January, the group was reported to have camped in the Grampians where they marched and burned a cross.
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/men-charged-national-socialist-network-terrorism-investigation-2021-4
This will make you weep Cud Chewer.
https://youtu.be/belm4kDAHgM
Holdenhillbilly, I have seen far right stickers pop-up near where I am (I destroy them immediately, of course) and I am not too far away from Munno Para. I suspect that the 32-year-old from Munno Para is the culprit.
State funeral for Tommy, Morrison PM ?
The army of minders unable to work an angle for their boss to be front and centre.
So much flux at the moment with very little cementing a storyline for the beleaguered Morrison PM.
The same army of publicly funded minders going about their business, with due credit for perserverence selling a dodgy product.
The LNP, both liberals and nationals are worried, their plan A to go without an alternative is playing out as it should.
The nation suffers, the pitfall s deeper, financial mismanagement catatrophic and don’t mention the pandemic.
The MSM and Liberal favourite conduits showing signs of refusing to apply more lipstick to the animal, Morrison PM wants us to believe can fly.
Morrison PM wiil stay away from the Tassie election, claim nothing to see there, yet Premier Gutwein, otherwise in a commanding position, will struggle with the Morrison PM stench of rotten government invading the small place across the strait with dire consequences.
Mr Dutton is now making plans and appearances at every opportunity.
Next time that FoxNews reporter asks for an interview… or if you want some dirt on that special colleague…
‘Operatives linked to an Israeli business intelligence firm masqueraded as journalists in an effort to gather information on a lawsuit against an Emirati royal family, the Daily Beast reported Tuesday.
According to the report, the firm has set up two fake personas for individuals pretending to be a Fox News researcher and a journalist from Italy’s La Stampa. They reached out to individuals involved in a lawsuit against Ras Al Khaimah, one of the seven emirates of the United Arab Emirates.
The Daily Beast received information about the users and sent it to Facebook, which then linked them back to an Israeli firm called Bluehawk CI.
Bluehawk CI did not respond to the Daily Beast’s inquiry on the matter.
The firm was set up by Israeli Guy Klisman, “former Israeli military intelligence officer,” according to the report. The Israeli firm claims to offer cyber security services and reportedly boasts of a staff of “‘alumni from special units in the Israeli intelligence community.”
They specialize in “litigation support by providing answers to complex queries” through “social engineering & PR campaign management,” according to the firm’s website.
This operation targeted individuals involved in complex legal disputes with the Ras Al Khaimah emir, Sheikh Saud bin Saqr Al Qasimi, and his family. In the communications revealed by the Daily Beast, the firm’s operatives can be seen trying to gather information related to internal UAE affairs. ‘
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-spy-fox-news-uae-intelligence-1.9688043
And before anybody says “You’re free to believe what you want politically”, their ideology is violence. The stuff they put around the place promotes violence against non-whites and, as the quoted article demonstrates, go to their houses and you will find weapons etc. Also, get a few of them together and they’re not above committing violence on the streets at night.
While Morrison may be able to bullshit his way through the media here in Oz – or at least have the Murdoch press at his side, the BBC has him pegged…
After pointing out that Australia is lagging far behind in its roll-out (whether in terms of “aspiration goals” or something else) the Beeb asks, “Can Australia blame its vaccine woes on the EU?”
Well, despite some mitigating issues, the answer is “No” from the BBC…..
The gist of the article – unsurprisingly – is that Morrison over-promised and has now under-delivered…..
Tricot
Orrrr, he lied to us and his lie has now been exposed.
On that story Holden Hillbilly posted
@MehreenFuraqi tweets
Violence is inherent to far-right, fascist politics. Muslims, Jews and other targets of far-right terror know this all too well. Our government ignores it at all our peril. And then it will be too late.
What’s the over under on Mr Morrison pausing AZ and blaming it on “blood clot issues” whilst the actual rationale is get time to catch up?
Aqualung @8:23
Yeah, I know..
China does the entire rail line for under $30 million AUD per km. That’s for rail lines that are mostly on viaduct or in tunnel. There’s no secret as to why. Its just automation of construction and scale. We could do this too.
Just saw a Nine News Update on the vaccine. Gist of the story was ‘blood clot issues’ seeing the rollout paused.
They’ve got their line. That’s it.
Whilst there is some validity to caution being expressed wrt the blood clot issues as far as the AZ vaccine goes, the truth is we should have had other alternatives ready to go to take its place.
C@t
Yep. Compare Israel managing to order enough Pfizer. And why weren’t we ordering Moderna? That was an early leader many moons ago.
Cud,
I’ve seen footage of how they do HVDC links.
Let’s just say that they save a bit on labour costs by having lower WHS standards too.
This potato has a very thin skin…( is this an opinion or a fact?)..
In late March, Dutton explained his new aggressive stance, warning he had had enough of social media abuse. Dutton told 2GB radio that although he “let a lot” go through to the keeper “there has to be a floor, there needs to be a red line”.
“I’m not going to be defamed in that way, and people should know that if they want to do that, there’s a price to pay for it,” he said.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/apr/07/peter-dutton-issues-defamation-threats-to-social-media-users
C@t
Yep….
Samantha Maiden
@samanthamaiden
·
7h
Scott Morrison drops big clue on future risks to COVID vaccine rollout in today’s presser
@newscomauHQ
PM hints blood clot issue could stall vaccine rollout
Scott Morrison has dropped a big clue as to where the next threat to Australia’s COVID-19 rollout could come from and it’s not just down to Europe hoarding supplies.
news.com.au
Nah, we are the lucky country. She’ll be right. Or so they say.
The Federal Government is treating us all like mushrooms. I believe nothing that they or their boosters and flunkeys say. The vaccine rollout is a complete debacle. Imagine the screams from the mainstream media if it were Labor were in power.
Seriously the feds had one job. They need to sort out this vaccine fiasco pronto
Dandy
Yep.
Btw, I’d like to see Australian HSR overhead wiring free. Just use battery powered trains. Less capital cost, a lot less operational cost (the wiring is a big part of HSR opex) and of course, it’ll look a lot less ugly.
Victoria
The real fiasco is they have no plan to quickly update the vaccination to deal with the more aggressive strains.
But seriously, the medical argument of a go slow as a result of an adverse drug reaction is a masterful insertion of a new marketing line to test the waters. Definitely more useful when playing defence than attacking protagonists, a recent Morrison strategy when the usual “I have already responded to this”/”nothing to see here” deflections have expended utility.
Yes Cud Chewer, those construction costs are a killer here. I guess it helps to have access to a billion low cost workers too.
Not to mention whs as Dandy Murray mentioned.
Just curious. Can it be cheaper to go viaduct vs surface level right of way.
It seems having viewed this and other engineering projects in China that once the mechanised infrastructure is in place that costs could be amortised over multiple projects.
Thinking those deck slider thingies and anything that automates the construction.
cud chewer
They dont appear to have much of a plan for anything. Sigh
Griff
If this is seriously their strategy then they are desperate.
They are also inviting the media to question why Astra Zeneca, when do we get more Pfizer, when do we get Novavax and why aren’t we looking into other options.
Desperate times indeed Cud Chewer. Logically, it is a vacuous argument. But what has logic got to do with it? The State actor argument lasted less than a single media cycle. They need another reason why the Coalition are not to blame.
Trying to judge the actions of combatants in a war 80 years distant – where millions of civilians had been gassed, blown up, incinerated, starved, beaten, shot, disembowelled, and otherwise done to death – by Guytaur’s modern day standards of polite behaviour is pointless.
There is no question that literally millions of Japanese, as well as near to a million Allied servicemen and women would have been killed had Operation Olympic gone ahead and Japan had been invaded.
And to what end?
None!
The result would have been the same, except for the megadeaths.
150,000 dead bodies lost from two minor Japanese cities is a small price to pay when compared to the cost of not using The Bomb.
Not only Japanese lives and the lives of Allied servicemen and women were saved. The lives of millions of others in Europe, America and Russia who had witnessed a live, 100% demonstration of the devastation a nuclear war could wreak were also saved.
Aqualung
Labor costs are really not that pertinent. What does cost a lot in our projects is all the overhead. All the back office staff, the supervision, the re-drafting as changes are made. Plus the fact that we insist on being averse to tunnels and viaducts. When in fact its project complexity that costs. China cut through all that detail and decided to deliver tunneling and viaduct building at scale.
We can do something similar.
One of my criticisms of the 2013 Study’s route from Sydney to the Central Coast was its tunnel avoidance syndrome. An over-zealous costing of tunneling lead to them instead trying to keep to the surface instead. Meaning some major (and expensive bridges) and a lot of heavy earthworks in rugged terrain and cutting through multiple national parks.
(Edit: and even then, their route was over 50 percent tunnel. 15 tunnels from Hornsby to Ourimbah. Most too short to get any economy of scale. Some constructed in places where there are serious access and logistics costs – made no sense).
My proposal is essentially all tunnel (plus a simpler and cheaper bridge across the Hawkesbury). Look at recent costings – for example $70 million/km for the twin tube northwest rail line metro tunnels. That’s for the basic construction and fitout. Scaled for speed that’s $100M/km for what we need for HSR. Compare this to the 2013 Study’s estimate of $150M/km for HSR tunnels and that was in 2012 dollars.
We need to go back to two words – simple and elegant.
Griff
I can hear Tina Turner singing.
What’s logic got to do, got do with it.
What’s logic but a sweet old fashioned notion..
My wife is elegant, so I guess that makes me simple
You make a perfect couple 🙂
Morrison is treading on thin ice if he wants to push the AZ blood clots line. It will make the Anti Vaxxer and Vaccine Hesitant numbers explode! It’s already running rampant in NESB communities. Grandparents hear about the blood clot issues, so they decide not to take it. As many of these communities have a structure whereby the grandparents’ opinion is honoured and respected in the breach, that leads to the rest of the family deciding not to forego vaccination. And on and on it spirals, throughout the community. Which is according to a news item wrt the phenomenon that I heard the other day.
Australia is just going to end up with a shambles.
The Morrison government had one job to do with this vaccine rollout and they have fallen at hurdle after hurdle. They aren’t even getting the spin right anymore! That’s how bad it is!
Still no Edit function. So, I meant:
‘that leads to the rest of the family deciding to forego vaccination.’
C@t
It is that bad. For the sake of us getting to a much better place with this pandemic, they need to get their shit together.
Morrison is treading on thin ice if he wants to push the AZ blood clots line.
——————————-
He’s getting desperate.
In about an hour, further updates will be given
……………….
Government advisers say concerns over the Oxford/AstraZeneca jab are being taken “very seriously” and “very thoroughly” investigated, before an imminent announcement by the vaccines regulator.
The Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) and the European Medicines Agency (EMA) are to give updates on Wednesday at 3pm on their investigations into whether the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine is directly causing rare brain blood clots. They may recommend that distribution of the vaccine to younger people be paused if they establish a causal link with rare blood clots.
Hayesgate
An interview with the guardian a few days ago:
People who have developed careers as politicians are forgetting what it’s like to put food on the table, what it’s like to juggle childcare while you’re making sure you can get to the nursing home to visit your parents while you fret about tolls,” he says.
Within NSW there is, he believes, an outsized focus on what’s known in politics and media circles as ‘grabs’ – that is, being quoted on the nightly news on the day’s events – rather than any sustained or detailed policy attention.
“Politics should be about detail and substance … Anyone can shoot from the hip and get on TV for 10 seconds, saying this minister should resign or that minister should resign, but we should be asking ourselves, are we actually trying to help people, or are we just entertaining ourselves,” he says.
Many of the MPs the Guardian spoke to share Hayes’ frustration with what they see as a lack of vision within the shadow cabinet. “What are our policies?” one MP glibly asks.
In any case, the flashpoint, for now, is the byelection in the Upper Hunter. After Johnsen’s quick resignation, neither the government nor Labor want to claim frontrunner status.
“Never in 90 years has Labor won this seat. It will be a tough election,” McKay said this week.
But for the not insignificant rump of Labor MPs who believe McKay should be replaced, it has become a convenient staging ground.
“The Upper Hunter is the grand final,” one MP told the Guardian.
I wonder if “global shortages” includes the Russian and Chinese vaccines? It seems they are being provided with the perfect opportunity to gain influence in PNG and Pacific countries by stepping in to offer their vaccines.
I wonder what Russia would charge Australia for a quantity of their Sputnik concoction? (I’m assuming that Morrison would reject any Chinese vaccines.)
re boerwarsays: Wednesday, April 7, 2021 at 7:06 pm
Re China’s emissions, if Oz mines the coal which sends it to China and they use it to make LED screens that Oz consumers buy. Then it should be accounted like a VAT. The proportion of emissions due to China is overstated versus the consumers of the end products.
On the other hand no sympathy for Japan. So many civilians massacred and topped off by the Harbin camps. Totally unreasonable for the Allies to risk any further deaths to save Japanese civilians.
And on the other other hand.. good idea re shelters for the abused. Just have to frame it has a rescue mission for the developer mates of the LibNats who are having trouble shifting units given the lack of Chinese investors.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison stood by plans to give all adult Australians their first dose by October but said “circumstances change” and there could be no guarantee of a smooth rollout.
Iow, ‘I don’t know what the hell I’m doing, wtf is happening, but I have to say something!’
There isn’t a global shortage of the vaccine, btw. America is producing so much, after they finish vaccinating their own population their surplus will begin vaccinating the world.
Evening all. I would just liek to agree with others on the impossible inconsistencies between what Morrison and Hunt say about vaccines now, and what they said in September 2020. That is on top of the inconsistencies with what the EU is saying now. Either now or in September 2020, Morrison and Hunt must have been lying. There are multiple examples:
– The multiple vaccines we were “first in line” for in September 2020 have not shown up. Not only AZ, but also the 10M does of Pfizer and 50M doses of Novavax. Where are they? Looks like they were never actually ordered.
– the shortfall in AZ vaccine from the EU does not match the shortfall in vaccinations by March 31. Neither the available supply of AZ, nor the lack or progress in vaccinations, can be explained by the export halt alone.
– The EU warned of delays to AZ exports in January 2021, yet Hunt did not announce any change to the vaccination program till March 2021. Why the delay? What was Hunt doing for those two months?
Compare the statements in the BBC and Age reporting with the gov. website:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-56658501
And
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/circumstances-change-global-vaccine-shortage-stymies-rollout-plan-20210407-p57ham.html
So it looks like we never actually ordered what McLiarface and the Weasel said we did in September 2020. All our eggs have been put in the AZ/CSL manufacture basket, but there are no details of when that production will hit the required rate. Nor is there any advice of whether we will get more Pfizer and when for those people for whom AZ will not be adequate. It is a billion $ mess, with the fate of the post lockdown economy and all our health riding on it.