Newspoll: 50-50

Newspoll finds Scott Morrison’s commanding personal ratings improving still further, without doing anything to improve a seemingly precarious position on voting intention.

As brought to you by The Australian, Newspoll maintains its sedentary ways in its latest poll, which repeats the previous result three weeks ago in recording a dead head on two-party preferred. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 37%, while the Coalition on 42%, the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 3% are all unchanged. Despite a seemingly difficult week for Scott Morrison, he gains one on approval to 64% and drops one on disapproval to 32% and widens his lead as preferred prime minister from 57-29 to 61-26, as Anthony Albanese drops three on approval to 38% and rises two on disapproval to 45%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1504.

There was also a poll on Friday from Roy Morgan, which sometimes publishes its regular federal voting intention polling and sometimes doesn’t. In this case Labor was credited with a bare lead of 50.5-49.5, from primary votes of Coalition 40%, Labor 34.5%, the Greens 13% and One Nation 3.5%. The poll was conducted over the previous two weekends online and by phone from a sample of 2824.

Between Newspoll, Roy Morgan and Essential Research, there are now three pollsters who rate the situation as steady of with Labor fractionally ahead. This is reflected in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, now updated with the above results on both the voting intention and leadership rating trends, which has Labor edging ahead to a 50.2-49.8 lead.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,113 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. Despite Morrison’s apparent personal popularity in Newspoll, the Liberals are acutely aware of the 50-50 2PP.

    How long can Morrison continue to baffle the voters with bullshit, as he is certainly not dazzling them with brilliance?

    If Morrison’s approval ratings start to slide (if only because he refuses to properly address the sexual assault matters) when will Dutton or Frydenberg step in “to save the Liberal Party at the election”?

  2. The problem for Morrison is that the Cabinet Minister cannot really disprove the allegations. The stench of having in your ministry an alleged rapist who is perceived to be not fit and proper will hang around the Government’s neck until Election Day. Unless, of course, Morrison is able to dig dirt on Labor to neutralise the issue.

  3. [‘Lady Gaga’s two French bulldogs, which were stolen by thieves who shot and wounded the dogwalker, have been recovered unharmed, Los Angeles police said on Saturday

    A woman brought the dogs to the Olympic Community Police Station, just north-west of downtown, around 6pm on Friday US time, said Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD) Captain Jonathan Tippett, commanding officer of the elite Robbery-Homicide Division.’] -SMH.

    I wonder whether she’ll get the half-million reward? Anyway, good news and apparently the dog-walker’s on the mend.

  5. Do we know when Morrison got the letter? And do we also know when Wong first found out about the alleged rape? Did Morrison find out at that time as well?

  8. citizen @ #2851 Saturday, February 27th, 2021 – 3:27 pm

    Despite Morrison’s apparent personal popularity in Newspoll, the Liberals are acutely aware of the 50-50 2PP.

    How long can Morrison continue to baffle the voters with bullshit, as he is certainly not dazzling them with brilliance?

    If Morrison’s approval ratings start to slide (if only because he refuses to properly address the sexual assault matters) when will Dutton or Frydenberg step in “to save the Liberal Party at the election”?

    Exactly!

    Popularity without votes to back it up is of no value to a Political party intent on re-election.

    Morrison’s popularity has always been a mile wide and an inch deep.

    Can’t help thinking that lot of what is going on is related to an eventual Dutton Leadership challenge.

  18. Confessions @ #2861 Saturday, February 27th, 2021 – 3:34 pm

    A mere two months ago.

    Confessions @ #2862 Saturday, February 27th, 2021 – 3:34 pm

    And today…

    And in two months time?

    Not trying to downplay the significance of a sexual assault accusation, but the reality is that in politics the dogs may bark, but the caravan moves on. I certainly hope some COALition heads do roll, but I’d be surprised if Morrison will still look like a bunny in the headlights in two months time.

  20. “ Andrew_Earlwood
    I like you long-form articles. They are an interesting read.”

    Thanks Fred. They take it out of me (which is why I’ve been avoiding my long form china – Australia relations post. Plus my holidays have ended and I’m totally jammed with work until the end of may already).

    Sorry for the spelling, grammar and syntax. Never my forte.

  22. This is in ABC report

    Wong, Turnbull also made aware of allegation
    Senator Wong, who was made aware of limited detail surrounding the woman’s allegation last year by the complainant herself, contacted South Australia Police to offer her assistance in the coronial investigation when she discovered the complainant had died.

    The woman had also written in 2019 to former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, and he too wrote to South Australia Police with his knowledge of the allegation upon learning of her death.

    South Australia Police had originally referred the woman to their NSW counterparts because she alleged the incident occurred in Sydney. SA Police are currently preparing a report into the circumstances of her death for the state’s coroner, including her early release from a psychiatric institution in Melbourne.

  28. My friend and I had a very long lunch today and when we discussed the latest incident she got out her phone, brought up a list of male Coalition Cabinet Ministers and we triangulated and eliminated them until we had ourselves a rough idea of who the perp might be. 🙂

  29. Those in politics as members or staffers plus the media who didn’t know who the cabinet member in question is, no doubt now do and the number of people in the broader community who know is only going to grow. Same probably goes for the law enforcement community and legal circles and their friends etc.

    Like oil on water it will spread with many watching what morrison does about it all. He can try to ignore it but if and when it blows up all that does is rope him in further.

    The other question is has the cabinet member rehabilitated himself or are there other incidents waiting to rear their ugly heads ?

    A government in the process of dying of shame ?

    Well that supposes any of them have any shame. But the standard you walk past etc etc….

  30. If I’d been advising Morrison on publicity this weekend, I’d have suggested he should be photographed at a desk studying the Aged Care Report, to show he was taking it seriously and also was far too busy to worry about the little scandal in Cabinet.

  31. It looks like Morrison is trying to distance himself – has sent Birmingham out to say it’s a matter for police.

    The problem for Morrison is that this has, in addition to the criminal side of it, a very political element that he won’t be able to airbrush away.

    He has a senior cabinet minister sitting in the cabinet, making decisions on governance, who is, according to the accusations, not a fit and proper person to hold such a position of power.

  32. Player One:

    Saturday, February 27, 2021 at 3:42 pm

    It may, as you say, pass but Morrison’s got plenty of other issues on his plate, not the least when Jobkeeper ceases at the end of March, where many will go on Jobseeker. They are going to get a rude shock when forced to live below the poverty line, a good swag of them supporting the Tories or Country Party.

  34. Morrison should be wearing a rash shirt and hat or cap.
    Speaking as someone in similar shape and with a similar hairstyle who has a crater on the top of my head from an op late last year.
    I can’t remember the last time I went to the beach and I never go anywhere without a hat and haven’t for years.

  35. Lynchpin @ #2881 Saturday, February 27th, 2021 – 4:09 pm

    It looks like Morrison is trying to distance himself – has sent Birmingham out to say it’s a matter for police.

    He has a senior cabinet minister sitting in the cabinet, making decisions on governance, who is, according to the accusations, not a fit and proper person to hold such a position of power.

    Its already becoming an issue and a test of HIS Leadership.

    Will all the people who already know just accept business as usual. What a bunch of pissants Australia is if that happens.

  36. @LP ams shelbell. Sorry, just saw this post re your earlier exchanges.

    “ LP

    Sure but how where there is no complainant, no apparent objective evidence and probably no admissible evidence.

    Earlwood is an able prosecutor. He can tell you how this pans out.”

    I tend to turn off following the details – as reported by our media – of high profile criminal cases because firstly, it’s too much like my actual job and the fascination always seems somewhat unseemly and secondly, the media always seem to be totally hopeless when reporting the known facts of such cases.

    That being said, a dead sexual assault complainant does pose problems for any investigation and prosecution in a way that doesn’t really apply in a murder case.

    In a rape case, in the absence of supporting forensic evidence or eyewitness evidence or cctv evidence what an investigator is left with is the untested version of events as given by the complainant. In our system of justice such allegations have to be tested and no conviction can be properly entered unless the trier of fact is satisfied that the prosecution has proved its case beyond reasonable doubt. One can’t even get to Peter Dutton’s ‘he said, she said’ unless the evidence can be tested.

    While the Evidence Act does allow for the tender of witness statements of the maker is unavailable (in this case dead) that is subject to the discretionary exclusions contained in the Act. It would be inconceivable that a court would admit such damaging evidence without the real opportunity for an accused person to test that evidence.

    So the investigators and potential prosecutors are left with a pretty unenviable position: there would seem to be little prospects of a successful prosecution. Little wonder the investigation has been suspended at this stage.

    However, if there turns out to be some sort of corroboration: perhaps some admission by the suspect; perhaps other complainants coming forward, perhaps some forensic evidence emerging or CCTV or the like, arguably the case could be reopened. But that chance seems to be pretty remote. Not that I’ve been following all the details through the media and I wouldn’t trust them to report accurately anyway.

  37. Lynchpin @ #2881 Saturday, February 27th, 2021 – 4:09 pm

    It looks like tMorrison is trying to distance himself – has sent Birmingham out to say it’s a matter for police.

    The problem for Morrison is that this has, in addition to the criminal side of it, a very political element that he won’t be able to airbrush away.

    He has a senior cabinet minister sitting in the cabinet, making decisions on governance, who is, according to the accusations, not a fit and proper person to hold such a position of power.

    Why is Birmingham the selection to speak? Isn’t he the Finance Minister?

    Isn’t the first law officer Christian Porter, the Attorney General?

  38. Aqualung @ #2884 Saturday, February 27th, 2021 – 4:13 pm

    Morrison should be wearing a rash shirt and hat or cap.
    Speaking as someone in similar shape and with a similar hairstyle who has a crater on the top of my head from an op late last year.
    I can’t remember the last time I went to the beach and I never go anywhere without a hat and haven’t for years.

    He’s going to need a bigger bottle of sunscreen!

  39. The coming malignancy in Coalition ranks may the best revenge the unfortunate victim could have hoped for.

    Whenever anything goes wrong in future, the perpetrator (if indeed a crime has been committed) will be blamed. Morrison will be blamed for keeping him on. Hell, somebody may even get an attack of conscience.

    Far fetched, I know… but…

  40. Mavis: “A woman brought the dogs to the Olympic Community Police Station, just north-west of downtown, around 6pm on Friday US time, said Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD) Captain Jonathan Tippett, commanding officer of the elite Robbery-Homicide Division.’] -SMH.”

    Thank goodness the LAPD wasn’t defunded, as many of Lady Gaga’s celebrity friends have called for.

  43. I just found this from last November, in which Angela Shanahan ‘critiques’ the ABC 4Corners program, which she describes as a hatchet job on Christian Porter:

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/abc-hatchet-job-on-christian-porter-a-political-gotcha/news-story/33a8be0c75976b36a63934811efe02a6

    along comes the ABC and its reporter Louise Milligan. On Four Corners, taking a breather from her usual occupation of penning scandal about the Catholic hierarchy, Milligan set herself up as implacable feminist avenger of her sex, training her relentless purse-lipped scrutiny on the sordid sex lives of male (Liberal) parliamentarians and exposing the squalid goings-on in that boiling pit of passion known as Canberra. And you thought Canberra was dull?
    …
    What is not laughable is to try to use the feminist victimhood angle to paper over a political hatchet job by a disgruntled former prime minister and a vituperative ABC virago. That is wrong. What is more, casting the first stone is wrong. It is for individuals to be responsible for their own sexual behaviour. Only when it impinges on the smooth running of parliament and the general welfare of the Australian electorate can it be of any interest to anyone else.

    I was not aware until now (well, I wasn’t interested, really) that Angela is the wife of Dennis Shanahan and the mother of his nine children.
    https://www.uow.edu.au/media/2019/esteemed-political-journalist-awarded-honorary-doctorate.php

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