Still very quiet on the polling front, but speculation of a federal election later this year has given scribes plenty to work with over the quiet season:
• A report in the Age/Herald concludes the most likely months are October and November, with Liberal Party officials being told to have their act together at least by August. However, it is noted that “the pandemic could derail any possible plan for an early poll”.
• The above report also relates that the Queensland Liberal National Party’s Senate ticket is to be decided by May 1. This presents the Coalition with a difficulty, in that second position is reserved for the Nationals and duly assured for Matt Canavan, leaving Liberal up-and-comers James McGrath and Amanda Stoker in a high-stakes battle for first and third. The loser will at least be able to console themselves with the knowledge that the Coalition has won at least three Senate seats in Queensland at each of the seven elections since 2001.
• Also noted in the report is a fact that escaped my notice amid the excitement of events in the United States — namely, that the Western Australian Liberals finalised their Senate ticket in early November. This occurred at the same time that Ben Small, a logistics manager at Woodside Energy and owner of a bar and restaurant in Bunbury, was chosen to fill the vacancy created by Mathias Cormmann’s retirement. Small will take third position on the ticket behind Michaelia Cash and Dean Smith, both of whom have gone up a notch in Cormann’s absence. Smith had to overcome a bid by religious conservatives to dump him in favour of Albert Jacob, mayor of Joondalup and former state member for Ocean Reef. Peter Law of The West Australian reported the move was “perceived by some within the party as retribution for the eight-year Senator’s very public campaign for marriage equality in 2017”.
• There are a whole bunch of redistribution processes in train at the moment. At federal level, draft boundaries for Victoria and Western Australia are due to be published by the end of March, respectively to be finalised on July 26 and August 2. The redistributions will increase Victoria’s representation from 38 seats to 39, and reduce Western Australia’s from 16 to 15. A state redistribution process also began in Victoria last month, with draft boundaries due at the end of June and final boundaries to be published on October 14. In New South Wales, submissions are being weighed up to draft boundaries that were published in November, and while no date is set for their finalisation, it could roughly be guessed that it will happen in March or April.
Thank god Kevin Andrews is gone. I hope that Morrison or someone doesn’t help him do a Lazarus.
Its interesting that so many people in Federal Labor have to hang around because there is no pension since 2004 and they are unemployable, at parliamentary salary levels, outside Parliament.
Its a real dilemma – they may need to bring back the pension scheme as a quid pro quo.
Q: KK wants us to bring more sick people into the country. I wonder how that will poll? Especially in WA today.
KK was campaigning hard mid-to-late-last-year during the lull between waves to get Australians back home-while Morrison dithered. Now we have to expedite things during the second peak.
It would be grossly unfair to criticise her tactics- but people will.
Staley is a moderate so I think we can safely assume Wolahan is same.
BW – strange, but true. You can see Lang Hancock in his own words on sterilisation…
https://youtu.be/h-RV9reCDbY
It wont worry the coalition supporters one iota that Kevin Andrews is gone
lizzie @ #2862 Sunday, January 31st, 2021 – 6:04 pm
He will surely get given a cushy position on some board or tribunal by Morrison.
Carr showed his true self when he sold out the left for a front bench spot under Shorten.
Destroyed the Vic faction system.
Rat.
“lizziesays:
Sunday, January 31, 2021 at 6:04 pm
Thank god Kevin Andrews is gone. I hope that Morrison or someone doesn’t help him do a Lazarus.”
I don’t know. A lifetime ambassadorial role to … Belorussia perhaps. A long way from here.
sprocket_ @ #2906 Sunday, January 31st, 2021 – 6:07 pm
Makes you proud to be an Australian, doesn’t it?
Guess who’ll become Ambassador to the Holy See? (More likely than not).
This won’t be of interest to anyone, but CH 72 has finally started a program called “Wild Bill”. I say finally, because they advertised it as “coming soon” all the way through 2020. It’s the commercials that have removed all meaning from words like “live” and “soon”.
C@t
When I look as Kevin Andrews’ pale face, I am reminded of an elderly accountant boss I once had, whose breath smelt like dry death.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, January 31, 2021 at 6:11 pm
Guess who’ll become Ambassador to the Holy See? (More likely than not).
___________________________________________
Yeah I set as much store in your predictions as sprockets. After all you predicted as recently as last week that Professor Brendan Murphy was going to be Australian of the Year?
Biggest story today is the demise of Kevin Andrews despite support from Ministers and the grand poo bahs of the Victorian Liberal Party.
Seems like the winds of personnel change are sweeping through the Liberal Party.
How comfortable is Craig Kelly tonight?
Lars Von Trier @ #2915 Sunday, January 31st, 2021 – 6:14 pm
Remind us all, again of how your gloriously successful Trump Wins predictions went.
I suppose the legacy of GladysB and Daryl has yet to be fully exposed, but for the history buffs amongst us, who can forget NSW Liberal Premier Bob Askin’s innovative way of supplementing his salary…
Allegations of corruption
There have been persistent allegations that Askin, allegedly assisted by then Police Commissioner Norman Allan, oversaw the creation of a lucrative network of corruption and bribery that involved politicians, public servants and police and the nascent Sydney organised crime syndicates.[39]
When questioned about his wealth, Askin always attributed it to the salary from his high public office, his frugal lifestyle, good investments and canny punting. After his death the Australian Taxation Office audited his estate, and although it made no finding of criminality, it determined that a substantial part of it came from undisclosed income derived from sources other than shares or gambling.[39]
With Askin’s death in 1981, investigative journalists were freed from the threat of legal action under Australia’s defamation laws. Stories about his reputed corruption were published almost immediately.[39] Most notable of these was an article that appeared in The National Times co-written by David Marr and David Hickie. Headlined “Askin: friend of organised crime”, it was published on the day of Askin’s funeral. This was followed by David Hickie’s book “The Prince and The Premier”, which detailed Askin’s long involvement in illegal bookmaking and allegations that he had received substantial and long-running payoffs from organised crime figures.
In 2007, the centenary of Askin’s birth went largely unnoticed with the Liberal Party distancing itself from him.[39]
The allegations of corruption against Askin were revived in 2008 when Alan Saffron, the son of the late Sydney crime boss Abe Saffron, published a biography of his father in which he alleged that Saffron had paid bribes to major public officials including Askin, former police commissioner Norman Allan, and other leading figures whom he claimed he could not name because they were still alive. Alan Saffron alleged that his father made payments of between A$5000 and $10,000 per week to both men over many years, that Askin and Allan both visited Saffron’s office on several occasions, that Allan also visited the Saffron family home, and that Abe Saffron paid for an all-expenses overseas trip for Allan and a young female ‘friend’. He also alleged that, later in Askin’s premiership, Abe Saffron became the “bagman” for Sydney’s illegal liquor and prostitution rackets and most illegal gambling activities, collecting payoffs that were then passed to Askin, Allan and others, in return for which his father was completely protected.[40][4
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Askin#Allegations_of_corruption
lizzie @ #2913 Sunday, January 31st, 2021 – 6:11 pm
Holey Moley has got a real run. It’s a total dud!
Wacky Zacky has just supported McGowan’s close-WA-requirement.
To that extent, good on him for at least showing a modicum of commonsense rather than the rabble LNP group on the East coast and the putrid Murdoch press………..
However, on talk-back radio there are still a few Liberal die-hards shooting their mouths off on “McGowan stuff up” as they spread their sour attitude to life……
We have had 9 months of CV-19 free time and we are so pleased with this despite all…..though I suspect we in WA have all become a little complacent…………
Not true GG – I said the 10% national margin polls to Biden looked wrong and the State polls were closer – and they were.
Im happy to admit mistakes and front up. I didn’t think Campbell Newman would lose after one term.
So many Monday morning quarterbacks on PB. At least your just partisan so occasionally your preferences are confirmed.
Bucephalus
There is more governing than letting your business investors profit while the rest of the population suffers.
It wouldn’t have cost Morrison any money to be supportive of the Premiers during lockdowns.
I have a clear recollection of LVT having conniptions at the possibility of Biden being defeated by Dotard – and commented such at the time. By the lack of rebuttal, one can only assume that LVT is still carrying a torch for the ‘clear and present danger to democracy’
Tricot @ #2920 Sunday, January 31st, 2021 – 6:18 pm
Kirkup can read the impact on polls of the whinging opposition to decisive action of Covid.
The problem with this is that it is not the MPs or senators who run the Labor machine – at least not in NSW (which is the only state I know any details about). It is the “faceless men”. It sounds like a cliche, but these people really do exist. And some of those who were active in the 80’s and 90’s in NSW Labor are still active now.
Yeah but there has been three Liberal Prime Minsters since Liberals have got into power 2013. It doesn’t seem to get mentioned on this blog or the media either but they have faceless men too.
I’m over the Labor bagging to tell you the truth. Actually unlike the Liberals Labor is actually pretty good at getting people to move on. That is if they have outstayed their welcome or are not performers. That’s partly due to the fact pre-selections are not 100% rank and file. But are split with the unions 50/50 for better or worse.
I’ve seen it suggested Bill Shorten should move on. I mean he’s been in parliament since 2007, – I would hardly compare that with Kevin Andrews who has been in since 1991.
Steve Wardhill also acknowledged about state QLD Labor pre-selections while not perfect the cream of the crop seems to rise to the top. And said about the LNP preselection’s because its 100% rank and file that there are many in the ranks who are still in parliament and probably shouldn’t be.
Let him stay delusional.
Lol cowardly sprockets. As I recall despite repeated offers to you to make a call you cravenly declined to say Biden would win before the Election.
I guess that is understandable after your wild overestimations about Labor’s triumph in the 2019 election. Do you need a refresher?
Lars Von Trier @ #2921 Sunday, January 31st, 2021 – 6:18 pm
But, in your heart of hearts, you really wanted Trump to win.
That attitude shines through your commentary.
Live with that, comrade.
Totally unfair caricature of Morrison.
You probably won’t believe it GG – but at the election party i was at – I left in quite a gloomy mood on the afternoon when it looked like Trump would win before the red mist lifted.
I think there was always a fear that Trump would pull a rabbit out of the hat somehow. I just didn’t think it would be a blow out – just like I don’t think the next Federal election will be a blowout (despite the bizarre kill albo mood on here).
Political Nightwatchman @ #2925 Sunday, January 31st, 2021 – 6:23 pm
I was mostly responding to C@t’s post about the 80’s and 90’s being so long ago they were no longer relevant. Of course they are still relevant – the very same people are still in positions of influence in NSW Labor.
And I am on record as preferring Shorten to Albo. This is not ideological – I don’t give a rat’s that Shorten is from the Labor Right, and Albo is (nominally) from the Labor Left. It is just because we know Shorten would actually fight to win, whereas Albo doesn’t seem inclined to bother fighting at all.
Lars Von Trier @ #2931 Sunday, January 31st, 2021 – 6:28 pm
You were always an ever Trumper.
Seems the US voters were not as cynical as you.
Your red mist claims are simply you re-writing history to suit your current morality.
Political Nightwatchman says Sunday, January 31, 2021 at 6:23 pm
Something Hartcher failed to mention in his criticisms of Labor leadership instability on Insiders this morning.
”Staley is a moderate so I think we can safely assume Wolahan is same.”
A vote for a Staley or Wolahan or any “Liberal”, no matter how “moderate”, is a vote for Craig Kelly, George Christensen, Eric Abetz, Jim Molan and our local Trump Mini Me.
Knifing PM’s makes sense.
Why let them lose, when you can reboot with a new PM – avoids the need for a change of government election and the whole government is refreshed, ie its not an 8 year old government its actually a government in its 3rd year.
Presumably the Liberals are pretty chuffed at how well the Turnbully knifing worked out?
Player One says Sunday, January 31, 2021 at 6:32 pm
Seeing Albo play second fiddle to Pyne on Kitchen Cabinet did leave me with a favourable opinion of his leadership capabilities.
I would rather not sit through another three years of Scotty from Marketing as PM.
All Trumps lawyers have resigned from the impeachment defence.
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/butch-bowers-deborah-barbier-trump-impeachment-team/index.html
I’ve seen the promos for Holey Moley on Ch7. The promos feature Greg Norman. I wonder if they let him into the country at some stage or if he was involved but still in the US. He caught Covid-19 at some stage.
bc @ #2937 Sunday, January 31st, 2021 – 6:38 pm
Sorry, but I would not subject myself to Annabel Crabb under any circumstances. In this life, one has to draw the line somewhere 🙁
GG: ‘Totally unfair caricature of Morrison.’
Unfair on Mussolini?
citizen @ #2939 Sunday, January 31st, 2021 – 6:41 pm
I’ll bow to our PB medical experts, but, I doubt that Covid can be spread by video link.
Now we know why Labor cannot clean out dead wood – the whole outfit is inquorate. They cant force anybody out without a valid membership – otherwise the whole thing will end up in Court.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/marlene-kairouz-set-to-face-alp-branch-stacking-charges-20210128-p56xjn.html
Knifing PM’s makes sense.
Why let them lose, when you can reboot with a new PM – avoids the need for a change of government election and the whole government is refreshed, ie its not an 8 year old government its actually a government in its 3rd year.
Presumably the Liberals are pretty chuffed at how well the Turnbully knifing worked out?
One of the underrated factors in Labor’s election loss was there was a change of prime minstership from Malcolm Turnbull to Scott Morrison. And apparently voters didn’t feel like changing to another one again from Morrison to Bill Shorten after Morrison had just replaced Turnbull.
I actually didn’t think the Liberals would axe Tony Abbott as PM after they gave such a hard time when Labor did it. I was wrong………….
Louise Staley is IPA aligned but that doesn’t automatically makes her a reactionary clown.
bc says Sunday, January 31, 2021 at 6:38 pm
My apologies. That should have been:
brain to keyboard buffer overflow.
Kirky
Yes exactly. And I can’t believe that the “adults in the room” haven’t gotten the fact that aerosol spread in hotels is a genuine risk.
Yummmy home made pizza! 🙂
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/channel-7-personality-andrew-o-keefe-facing-domestic-violence-charge-20210131-p56y8p.html
Interesting Seven dumped Ryan Phelan when he was charged with DV (which was painless because he was finishing up work that week). Will they apply the same standard in this case?
Thanks for info DM