Houses in order

Early federal election talk portends a busy time on the preselection front over the coming months.

Still very quiet on the polling front, but speculation of a federal election later this year has given scribes plenty to work with over the quiet season:

• A report in the Age/Herald concludes the most likely months are October and November, with Liberal Party officials being told to have their act together at least by August. However, it is noted that “the pandemic could derail any possible plan for an early poll”.

• The above report also relates that the Queensland Liberal National Party’s Senate ticket is to be decided by May 1. This presents the Coalition with a difficulty, in that second position is reserved for the Nationals and duly assured for Matt Canavan, leaving Liberal up-and-comers James McGrath and Amanda Stoker in a high-stakes battle for first and third. The loser will at least be able to console themselves with the knowledge that the Coalition has won at least three Senate seats in Queensland at each of the seven elections since 2001.

• Also noted in the report is a fact that escaped my notice amid the excitement of events in the United States — namely, that the Western Australian Liberals finalised their Senate ticket in early November. This occurred at the same time that Ben Small, a logistics manager at Woodside Energy and owner of a bar and restaurant in Bunbury, was chosen to fill the vacancy created by Mathias Cormmann’s retirement. Small will take third position on the ticket behind Michaelia Cash and Dean Smith, both of whom have gone up a notch in Cormann’s absence. Smith had to overcome a bid by religious conservatives to dump him in favour of Albert Jacob, mayor of Joondalup and former state member for Ocean Reef. Peter Law of The West Australian reported the move was “perceived by some within the party as retribution for the eight-year Senator’s very public campaign for marriage equality in 2017”.

• There are a whole bunch of redistribution processes in train at the moment. At federal level, draft boundaries for Victoria and Western Australia are due to be published by the end of March, respectively to be finalised on July 26 and August 2. The redistributions will increase Victoria’s representation from 38 seats to 39, and reduce Western Australia’s from 16 to 15. A state redistribution process also began in Victoria last month, with draft boundaries due at the end of June and final boundaries to be published on October 14. In New South Wales, submissions are being weighed up to draft boundaries that were published in November, and while no date is set for their finalisation, it could roughly be guessed that it will happen in March or April.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,068 comments on “Houses in order”

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  1. Tough day for Kevin Andrew’s losing preselection today. 30 years into his five year plan for the electorate of Menzies he’s now forced to walk away with the job not quite complete.— Peter van Onselen (@vanOnselenP) January 31, 2021

    ouch …!

  2. https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/liberal-stalwart-kevin-andrews-loses-menzies-preselection-to-keith-wolahan/news-story/373b07bd62ed9dd26ddcc7c3bf843ea3

    A few of the comments –👇👇👇

    Peter
    14 minutes ago
    Excellent news. I am now looking forward to senator Abetz loosing his number one senate spot in Tasmania which will happen shortly and all will be well!
    John
    9 minutes ago
    Leaders give endorsements to every sitting member facing preselection. If a PM really is determined to support a sitting member they attend the preselection meeting themselves. They don’t go if the situation is hopeless.
    Paul47
    13 minutes ago
    Great to hear! Good fortune to Mr Keith Wolahan.
    Frank
    15 minutes ago
    Younger new blood is welcome.
    I just hope he is not just another labor lite which seems to be the new norm.

  3. Torchbearer says Sunday, January 31, 2021 at 3:49 pm

    Q: ex military officer….

    Liberals have a small gene pool these days- IPA or military. It is not very representative of Australia or exactly chock full of talent.
    Military people by definition are a separate elite from the general populace, uniquely unqualified to represent voters.

    You missed religious conservatives. They’re now a significant portion of the Liberal Party and have had the numbers in more than a few preselections..

  4. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, January 31, 2021 at 4:30 pm
    The UK variant is viscious.

    No sensible person could complain about McGowans strong and decisive action to crush it before it gets out.

    5 days will go quickly – should be a breeze for the strong WA people.

    The locations mentioned – Maylands and Midland included – are quite busy. I was in Maylands on 27/1 and live in Midland. Some of my family shopped in Coles Maylands more than once this week. So it’s very close to home.

    I’m in a queue for a test at a clinic. There are at least 400 people here already. It’s hot, but shaded. Slow going.

  5. Barrister Keith Wolahan has beaten Kevin Andrews in this afternoon’s Liberal preselection for the seat of Menzies. #auspol— James Campbell (@J_C_Campbell) January 31, 2021

    Good outcome

  6. LVT indeed
    The links between Al Grassby and McKay have received a lot of attention over the years.
    Grassby was unseated when McKay’s preferences went to the Nationals. C@t’s theory that the Nationals murdered McKay is a new one to me

  7. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, January 31, 2021 at 5:26 pm
    Success of vaccine rollout pushes Tories ahead of Labour in the polls https://t.co/NDK70Xf3ld— Guardian politics (@GdnPolitics) January 31, 2021

    The Blairites sure did save Labour…

    One of the more idiotic examples of obsolete Rexology.

  8. N says:
    Sunday, January 31, 2021 at 5:20 pm

    If only they did what China track and trace system has done, they still have clinics setup.

    They also go door to door if there is an outbreak.

    I know many people in health from nurses and doctors from my understanding they super busy and under resources, even their IT systems are under resourced.

  9. Zerlo says:
    Sunday, January 31, 2021 at 5:30 pm
    N says:
    Sunday, January 31, 2021 at 5:20 pm

    If only they did what China track and trace system has done, they still have clinics setup.

    It’s early minutes here. The people of Perth have certainly responded very quickly. We’ll soon see how well the health system performs.

  10. Cud
    WA quarantine workers have a nasopharyngeal swab once a week and just recently started daily self collected oral swab testing.
    This fellow was tested on Jan 15, 17 and 23.
    He worked Jan 26 and 27 and developed symptoms Jan 28

  11. Oakeshott Country @ #2822 Sunday, January 31st, 2021 – 5:27 pm

    LVT indeed
    The links between Al Grassby and McKay have received a lot of attention over the years.
    Grassby was unseated when McKay’s preferences went to the Nationals. C@t’s theory that the Nationals murdered McKay is a new one to me

    Don’t try and misconstrue what I said. I said, for the slow learners like you and LvT, that the Australian arm of the N’Drangheta which is centred around the MIA, and were linked to the murder of Donald Mackay, also have links to The Nationals. Therefore, using your putrid logic, it would be best not to support the Liberals because they are in a Coalition with the Liberals.

    Anyway, go get a room with LvT, they are the only ones it seems that is willing to support your grubby attacks.

    You’ll be hearing nothing further from me. Though I’m happy to have outed you as just another Labor rat today.

  12. Look C@t
    For years you have been telling me that all of Labor’s corruption is past history and none of that stuff happens anymore.

    5 years ago, when Jamie sexually harassed his secretary and was forced to resign, Kaila was going to make everything alright but then she didn’t think it odd that there was $100,000 in small, used notes sitting in an Aldi bag on the front counter and she resigned. Now there is a man called “Bob” in charge.

    Then we have had the cavalcade of leaders. 2 years ago, The one who I thought would achieve something resigned after putting his hand in a journalist’s underpants without a specific invitation and he was replaced by a guy who thought it appropriate to make anti-asian comments.

    When is it all going to end? When will NSW Labor find a moral compass?

  13. While it’s good to see the back of Kevin Andrews,

    I’ll wait a bit longer before lording his successor.

    Ex military haven’t made a very good impression in our Parliament of late.

  14. Assantdjsays:
    Sunday, January 31, 2021 at 1:30 pm

    “I think this election it would benefit Albanese to work with the Labor premiers in WA and Qld. Reinforce that a Labor government would work well with the state government because of shared values. Highlight the times the LNP have tried to steamroll the current state leaders.”

    You mean like all the additional GST funding to WA and the massive infrastructure funding – terrible isn’t it.

  15. Lars Von Triersays:
    Sunday, January 31, 2021 at 5:18 pm
    When is Labor cleaning out its dead wood?

    When they become fossil fuels?
    I can think of one.

  16. BC,

    If he was an Uber driver, as it is reported, then that wouldn’t be out of the question if he had a number of rides. He must have been very busy or perhaps wanted a bottle of Coke etc.

  17. “Danama Paperssays:
    Sunday, January 31, 2021 at 5:29 pm
    Confessions @ #2792 Sunday, January 31st, 2021 – 12:57 pm

    School was due to go back tomorrow. Now on hold for a further week.

    Yippee say the kids.

    And the teachers”

    But maybe not the parents!!

  18. My, my aren’t we touchy today. Is pointing out your hypocrisy getting to you?

    Do you really want me to point out all the equivalent corruption and sexual predation that infects the Liberal Party? Or maybe you should just buy a copy of The Monthly where it is all listed for your reading convenience this month.

    Labor should get a moral compass? The Liberals and The Nationals threw the compass out decades ago so they never had to be bothered with it again.

    Everything Labor has done, the Liberals and Nationals have said, ‘hold my beer’.

    So take your sanctimony and your cataloguing of Labor crimes past and stick them where you think the sun shines out of Scott Morrison.

  19. When is Labor cleaning out its dead wood?

    I would be surprised if there are any Labor MP’s or senators in parliament that have been there since 1991.

  20. Bucephalus @ #2834 Sunday, January 31st, 2021 – 5:41 pm

    Assantdjsays:
    Sunday, January 31, 2021 at 1:30 pm

    “I think this election it would benefit Albanese to work with the Labor premiers in WA and Qld. Reinforce that a Labor government would work well with the state government because of shared values. Highlight the times the LNP have tried to steamroll the current state leaders.”

    You mean like all the additional GST funding to WA and the massive infrastructure funding – terrible isn’t it.

    Yeah, this is a government that uses taxpayers’ money like their own to ingratiate themselves with the electorate, like no other before them. Most of the money going to Coalition and Marginal seats they want to win or secure.

  21. I can’t believe that we are still having issues with hotel quarantine. Daily testing should have been introduced after the Vic and SA breakouts.

  22. When will NSW Labor find a moral compass?
    ___________________________

    Thats easy – when position description reform is implemented (according to NSW Labor)

  23. BKsays:
    Sunday, January 31, 2021 at 5:46 pm
    So there goes that horrible, obsequious creature Kevin Andrews. His departure should be celebrated!

    Seconded!!

  24. Cud
    Doesn’t look like it
    Oral swabs started at another hotel (Novotel) on the 9th and ramped up to the remainder of hotels late last week

  25. Political Nightwatchman @ #2881 Sunday, January 31st, 2021 – 5:48 pm

    When is Labor cleaning out its dead wood?

    I would be surprised if there are any Labor MP’s or senators in parliament that have been there since 1991.

    The problem with this is that it is not the MPs or senators who run the Labor machine – at least not in NSW (which is the only state I know any details about). It is the “faceless men”. It sounds like a cliche, but these people really do exist. And some of those who were active in the 80’s and 90’s in NSW Labor are still active now.

  26. OC, this political history is a never ending well to draw from.

    Why not tell us about Lang Hancock promoting sterilisation or poisoning of the natives? Did this legacy colour his daughters massive donations to The IPA? Or affect the financial support by Big Gina to Barnyard and his ex-CoS Matt Canavan?

  27. Federal Labor has plenty of 20 year service in Club Fed people. Given their record since 2000 you’d think they’d want to give someone else a go?

    Everybody knows its an issue but no Federal leader dare address it because of the factional backlash risks.

  28. Hmmm… three tours in Afghanistan in special forces, including as platoon commander.

    What did he know?
    If he didn’t know, why not?

  29. RD
    Yeah, I must admit I was surprised when I saw his name. He was a contemporary of Richo, Bolkus, Bob Collins and Colston

  30. “sprocket_says:
    Sunday, January 31, 2021 at 5:55 pm
    Q: what does Lib von Tryhard and Kevin Andrews have in common?

    (Wrong answers only)”

    As opposed to “right”?

  31. ‘sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, January 31, 2021 at 6:01 pm

    OC, this political history is a never ending well to draw from.

    Why not tell us about Lang Hancock promoting sterilisation or poisoning of the natives? ‘

    I didn’t know that Lang promoted the sterilization or poisoning of one of his children. That is weird stuff.

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