Essential Research: leadership ratings and climate change

The first public poll of the year finds little change on leaders’ ratings, but more sanguine attitudes on climate change policy than prevailed a year ago.

Essential Research has opened its account for the year with a poll that include its monthly-or-so leadership ratings, which record only slight changes on the end of last year: Scott Morrison is down a point on approval to 61% and up two on disapproval to 30%, Anthony Albanese is down one to 42% and up four to 33%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister goes from 50-24 to 51-25.

The survey also posed some semi-regular questions on climate change, finding a striking increase in the view that Australia is doing enough to address it (from 19% a year ago to 35%) and a corresponding decline in the view that not enough is being done (from 62% to 42%), with the “doing too much ” response up two to 10%. Despite this, 58% of respondents believed climate change related to human activity (up two on a year ago) against 32% who considered it part of normal climactic fluctuation (steady).

The other questions in the survey for the most part aren’t particularly political, relating to COVID-19 vaccine uptake and Australia Day. The change to the words of the national anthem finds 54% support and 16% opposition, with 30% on the fence.

In other poll news, The Australian yesterday related that polling conducted by Community Engagement for the CFMEU suggested Labor was in big trouble in the Hunter region seats of Paterson (Liberal up from 32.5% to 42.9%, Labor down from 41.1% to 30%, Greens down from 6.9% to 6.8%, and One Nation down from 14.2% to 6.9%, Nationals on 1.8%) and Shortland (Liberal up from 37.4% to 44.9%, Labor down from 41.1% to 28.3%, Greens down from 8.3% to 6.2%, One Nation on 8% and Nationals on 1.3%). The polls were conducted in November from samples of 955 per electorate. Given the evident interest of the client of putting pressure on the opposition leadership over coal mining, and all the other qualifications that apply to reports of private polling, a degree of caution is advised.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,129 comments on “Essential Research: leadership ratings and climate change”

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  1. Tennis stars complaining about a mouse in their quarantine hotel room had been feeding the rodent, says Police Minister Lisa Neville.
    ________________
    God almighty. Is this really where the Victorian govt is at in 2021.

  2. “I think Mundo has a fair point there c@t, if you disagree with people so virulently why not block them ?

    Seems to me you love the drama of conflict on here ?”

    Undoubtedly she does. But fact remains mundo is being a right twat today.

    Plus the fact that cat is an infinitely more interesting contributor to the discussions here than the one dimensional, one trick pony mundo.

  3. Unless I’m mistaken, Morrison compares the assault on the Capitol to BLM protests: “it has been very, very disturbing what we've seen, particularly around Capitol Hill, but it’s been a year full of violence, you know, in many ways last year in the United States.”— Peter van Onselen (@vanOnselenP) January 20, 2021

    Morrison can’t help himself – trying to draw false equivalences.

    It just exposes him even more as a truly delusional nutter and such a dangerous PM of Australia.

  4. Fiji is a lesson in what happens when you bring agricultural laborers from overseas. CSR could not convince the locals that money was a useful thing, so they imported others, who then decided to breed a lot faster than the locals.

  5. Cud Chewer @ #141 Wednesday, January 20th, 2021 – 11:25 am

    An hilarious Tesla model 3 review..
    https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/tesla-model-3-review/

    I find it strange that they keep referring to the Model S as a “sports car”.

    It’s really not, at least not compared to the 3. The steering on the S is too “boaty” for sports driving, and the car is less agile thanks to being both bigger and heavier. More of a luxury cruiser than a sports vehicle. Though sure, if you get the tri-motor variant it’ll accelerate in a straight line faster than just about anything. The 3 is the fun-to-drive one, however.

  6. Boris Johnson also leads a party full of the loony right, and who’s government has also been gushing over Trump for 4 years.

    Yet even he managed to condemn Trump by name.

    British and Australian political cultures are often very different.

  7. boerwar @ #93 Wednesday, January 20th, 2021 – 11:38 am

    This, plus the Adani Convoy, demonstrates a clear propensity for the far left actively handing government to the Coalition:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jan/20/bhp-cuts-mount-arthur-coalmine-valuation-by-15bn-after-thermal-coal-price-plunges

    Labor lied to the coal communities about the future of thermal coal.

    They admitted themselves their messaging on coal was wrong and cost them regional seats.

  8. Western Australia as an indepenent nation? If that’s how they’re taught to spell then they can go whenever they like. And take the racist rump states and territories, Qld and NT, with them.

  9. Rex Douglas says:
    Wednesday, January 20, 2021 at 1:00 pm
    boerwar @ #93 Wednesday, January 20th, 2021 – 11:38 am

    This, plus the Adani Convoy, demonstrates a clear propensity for the far left actively handing government to the Coalition:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jan/20/bhp-cuts-mount-arthur-coalmine-valuation-by-15bn-after-thermal-coal-price-plunges

    Labor lied to the coal communities about the future of thermal coal.

    No they didn’t. The LNP lied. The Greens lied. Labor copped it. Labor are the whipping boys here…and the flogging is being encouraged by the trolling editors of Rexology.

    Labor are damned if they do and damned if they don’t when it comes to coal. The LNP/Green wedge is working very well for the Labor-phobic voices.

  10. “9News Australia
    @9NewsAUS
    A group of business leaders in Western Australia want the state to break away from Australia… calling the campaign WAXIT.”

    Yes once this gets 20 likes, that should be enough

  11. Rex Douglas @ #160 Wednesday, January 20th, 2021 – 1:00 pm

    boerwar @ #93 Wednesday, January 20th, 2021 – 11:38 am

    This, plus the Adani Convoy, demonstrates a clear propensity for the far left actively handing government to the Coalition:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jan/20/bhp-cuts-mount-arthur-coalmine-valuation-by-15bn-after-thermal-coal-price-plunges

    Labor lied to the coal communities about the future of thermal coal.

    They admitted themselves their messaging on coal was wrong and cost them regional seats.

    Labor still doesn’t know which way to jump on coal. When Morrison was bandying a lump of coal around in parliament, and saying WTTE “This is coal, don’t be afraid of it” … Labor really was terrified. And still is 🙁

  12. C@tmomma @ #145 Wednesday, January 20th, 2021 – 12:04 pm

    Tricot,
    I admit I know next to nothing about cricket, so I was just wondering why you would recommend Pat Cummins for captain? Wouldn’t it be hard for a bowler to be captain? (He’s a bowler, isn’t he?)

    Yes and yes.
    But the cupboard of guaranteed test level players who havent been caught cheating is bare. There are near test level certs captaining (or vc) state teams, but selectors dont seem keen to have them in the Australian team. Khawaja, Head, Henriques (vc), Hanscombe, Wade, S Marsh. To be fair to the selectors, many of those players have been tried and left wanting, and some are getting too old. It was one of the reasons I was a little surprised they dropped Head.

    One thing that came out of the Kim Hughes debacle is that the captain must have the respect of the senior players in the team. You can go to youth, but beware. With that in mind, Cummins is an obvious choice. I just dont know how they will manage his workload. They will be very selective in his availability for ODI/T20.

  13. a rsays:Wednesday, January 20, 2021 at 1:22 pm

    It’s Tuesday night US time. Where are Trump’s pardons?

    ***************************************

    Former FBI – Asha Rangappa@AshaRangappa_

    Prediction: Trump will release pardon list at 11:30am tomorrow to try to hijack Biden’s inauguration coverage

  14. Yup. The LNP have been winning the politics of climate change and fossil fuels/jobs since the 1990s, with the exception of the period around the 2007 election, when Howard was inclined to position the Liberals alongside Rudd.

    Labor made a profound mistake when they aligned themselves with the Greens after the 2010 election. The Liberals and Greens have been able to take full advantage of Gillard’s mistakes, such that the Labor-hostile PV plurality is now around 2/3 of the electorate. The politics of climate change has had many casualties, including at least 3 PMs. Labor’s capacity to win elections is another casualty. Climate change has already caused and will continue to drive historic environmental, economic, social and political events and processes. The destruction of Federal Labor is already one of them.

  15. President Trump reportedly wants to create a third party once he leaves office.

    According to a report Tuesday evening in the Wall Street Journal, citing “people familiar with the matter,” Mr. Trump has discussed creating a “Patriot Party.”

    The discussions have happened with “several aides and other people close to him,” the Journal reported.

    According to numerous polls in recent years, Mr. Trump has a significant base of support among people who had been either politically inactive or independents, and thus have little institutional loyalty to the GOP.

    In recent months especially, Mr. Trump has feuded with Republican lawmakers in Washington, especially Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, accusing them of betrayal and calling them part of the Washington “swamp.”

    According to the Journal, it’s not clear whether Mr. Trump was merely musing aloud or would be willing to put in the kind of time and investment that building a political party takes.

    Historically, third parties have done poorly in elections — among many other things, the U.S. single-district and first-past-the-post legislative elections discourage their success.

    However, they even now often attract enough support to tilt a race, particularly when almost all their supporters had been members of one of the two major parties.

  16. N @ #169 Wednesday, January 20th, 2021 – 1:31 pm

    Yup. The LNP have been winning the politics of climate change and fossil fuels/jobs since the 1990s, with the exception of the period around the 2007 election, when Howard was inclined to position the Liberals alongside Rudd.

    Labor made a profound mistake when they aligned themselves with the Greens after the 2010 election. The Liberals and Greens have been able to take full advantage of Gillard’s mistakes, such that the Labor-hostile PV plurality is now around 2/3 of the electorate. The politics of climate change has had many casualties, including at least 3 PMs. Labor’s capacity to win elections is another casualty. Climate change has already caused and will continue to drive historic environmental, economic, social and political events and processes. The destruction of Federal Labor is already one of them.

    I won’t stand for this.
    I’m reporting you to Catmoaner this instant.
    Recant!
    Recant I say!!!!

  17. Thanks, for the explainer, SK. I was just thinking it would be much easier for a batsman to be captain, as many have been, as they have more time in the field when the other side is playing, whereas the bowler is running around and bowling.

  18. Player One @ #164 Wednesday, January 20th, 2021 – 1:17 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #160 Wednesday, January 20th, 2021 – 1:00 pm

    boerwar @ #93 Wednesday, January 20th, 2021 – 11:38 am

    This, plus the Adani Convoy, demonstrates a clear propensity for the far left actively handing government to the Coalition:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jan/20/bhp-cuts-mount-arthur-coalmine-valuation-by-15bn-after-thermal-coal-price-plunges

    Labor lied to the coal communities about the future of thermal coal.

    They admitted themselves their messaging on coal was wrong and cost them regional seats.

    Labor still doesn’t know which way to jump on coal. When Morrison was bandying a lump of coal around in parliament, and saying WTTE “This is coal, don’t be afraid of it” … Labor really was terrified. And still is 🙁

    Scared stiff.

  19. Reference WAXIT. I have no idea who the business types are who are promoting that and can’t be bothered googling. However, note that the Liberals passed a resolution at their conference to examine that option. If I was a gambler I would put money on the proposers of WAXIT being the same people, in other words looney liberals.

  20. mundo @ #173 Wednesday, January 20th, 2021 – 1:35 pm

    N @ #169 Wednesday, January 20th, 2021 – 1:31 pm

    Yup. The LNP have been winning the politics of climate change and fossil fuels/jobs since the 1990s, with the exception of the period around the 2007 election, when Howard was inclined to position the Liberals alongside Rudd.

    Labor made a profound mistake when they aligned themselves with the Greens after the 2010 election. The Liberals and Greens have been able to take full advantage of Gillard’s mistakes, such that the Labor-hostile PV plurality is now around 2/3 of the electorate. The politics of climate change has had many casualties, including at least 3 PMs. Labor’s capacity to win elections is another casualty. Climate change has already caused and will continue to drive historic environmental, economic, social and political events and processes. The destruction of Federal Labor is already one of them.

    I won’t stand for this.
    I’m reporting you to Catmoaner this instant.
    Recant!
    Recant I say!!!!

    And there I was thinking you may have been reflecting upon zoomster’s comment to you and may have decided to behave like an adult. I can see I was very, very wrong to assume that.

  21. C@tmomma @ #178 Wednesday, January 20th, 2021 – 1:38 pm

    mundo @ #173 Wednesday, January 20th, 2021 – 1:35 pm

    N @ #169 Wednesday, January 20th, 2021 – 1:31 pm

    Yup. The LNP have been winning the politics of climate change and fossil fuels/jobs since the 1990s, with the exception of the period around the 2007 election, when Howard was inclined to position the Liberals alongside Rudd.

    Labor made a profound mistake when they aligned themselves with the Greens after the 2010 election. The Liberals and Greens have been able to take full advantage of Gillard’s mistakes, such that the Labor-hostile PV plurality is now around 2/3 of the electorate. The politics of climate change has had many casualties, including at least 3 PMs. Labor’s capacity to win elections is another casualty. Climate change has already caused and will continue to drive historic environmental, economic, social and political events and processes. The destruction of Federal Labor is already one of them.

    I won’t stand for this.
    I’m reporting you to Catmoaner this instant.
    Recant!
    Recant I say!!!!

    And there I was thinking you may have been reflecting upon zoomster’s comment to you and may have decided to behave like an adult. I can see I was very, very wrong to assume that.

    Zoomy made a comment?

  22. Morrison is synonymous with coal in QLD. The electoral results are there for all to see: Labor’s PV is in the 20s. So while the LNP campaign against effective responses to climate change, it is Labor that have paid the political price.

    Labor are always to blame. This is the first rule of Australian politics. When something goes wrong, someone must be blamed. It doesn’t matter much whether the blamed are culpable. The main thing is that someone carries the blame. In Australian politics, that someone is Federal Labor. This is getting worse as time goes on.

  23. N @ #169 Wednesday, January 20th, 2021 – 1:31 pm

    Labor made a profound mistake when they aligned themselves with the Greens after the 2010 election.

    You may be obsessed with the Greens, but most people are not.

    The profound mistake that Labor made was not making up their mind whether they were in favor or opposed to coal. Labor could have defused the issue by simply jumping one way or the other. Either way. They still could.

    What did – and is still doing – so much damage to Labor’s credibility on this issue is their trying to have a bob each way. Australian’s don’t like bullshit like that, and are pretty good at detecting it.

  24. And the adults in the room will have noted that BHP is seeking to unload its Hunter coal operations. And the so-called experts on matters coal here should have made the wise assumption, therefore, that it’s going to be the Coalition who are likely to be left stranded up Coal creek without a paddle.

    Instead, what we seem to have here on PB is simplistic ‘analysis’ that focuses on Labor, and only Labor.

  25. N @ #182 Wednesday, January 20th, 2021 – 1:42 pm

    Labor are always to blame. This is the first rule of Australian politics. When something goes wrong, someone must be blamed. It doesn’t matter much whether the blamed are culpable. The main thing is that someone carries the blame. In Australian politics, that someone is Federal Labor. This is getting worse as time goes on.

    And here was I just starting to believe you that it was all the Green’s fault.

    Thank goodness we finally sorted that out!

  26. N @ #182 Wednesday, January 20th, 2021 – 1:42 pm

    Morrison us synonymous with coal in QLD. The electoral results are there for all to see: Labor’s PV is in the 20s. So while the LNP campaign against effective responses to climate change, it is Labor that have paid the political price.

    Labor are always to blame. This is the first rule of Australian politics. When something goes wrong, someone must be blamed. It doesn’t matter much whether the blamed are culpable. The main thing is that someone carries the blame. In Australian politics, that someone is Federal Labor. This is getting worse as time goes on.

    I don’t think you get the rules here.
    Criticising Labor is a sure sign of Lib Trollery.
    This cannot go unreported. You were warned.
    Catmoaner will be on your case shortly.

  27. C@tmomma @ #184 Wednesday, January 20th, 2021 – 1:44 pm

    Instead, what we seem to have here on PB is simplistic ‘analysis’ that focuses on Labor, and only Labor.

    Do you know the reason for that C@t? It’s because we know what the COALition policy is. No-one – not even you Labor partisans – has a clue what Labor’s policy will be at the next election.

  28. The Lib-Lab fossil fuel cartel on the east coast has so clearly corrupted our federal polity – and with it the MSM as well.

    Voters must unshackle the federal parliament from these corrupt national traitors.

    Only then can Australia truly prosper.

  29. Player One says:
    Wednesday, January 20, 2021 at 1:43 pm

    Labor are fucked. Get used to it. There is no way they can win a Federal election. You can blame Labor for their misfortunes if you like. Everyone else does. The facts are that Labor have been getting belted on climate change for most of the last 25 years. There are great events in motion. There will be political consequences as a result of these events. These consequences include the recurring defeat of Federal Labor. There’s no escape from this. Climate change is not going to be arrested anytime soon, and Labor will continue to pay the political price even though they are not the cause. There’s no justice in politics. It’s foolish to expect otherwise.

    Maybe the election of Biden will change the dynamics, but I doubt it. The LNP will play a nationalist/self-determinist line and this will be supported by the electorate. This kind of line is working for them in relation to China. It will work on climate change too.

  30. Player One @ #187 Wednesday, January 20th, 2021 – 12:48 pm

    It’s because we know what the COALition policy is. No-one – not even you Labor partisans – has a clue what Labor’s policy will be at the next election.

    That’s only half of it. The other half is that regardless of what Labor says its policy is for coal, any voter who decides that coal-positive policies are their top priority isn’t going to vote for Labor anyways. The Coalition owns that space, and Labor will never be accepted as anything more than a cheap imitation. No one is going to vote for the pretender when they can have the real thing.

    All the more reason to not waste time trying to pander to coal-positive voters.

  31. N @ #189 Wednesday, January 20th, 2021 – 1:57 pm

    Player One says:
    Wednesday, January 20, 2021 at 1:43 pm

    Labor are fucked. Get used to it. There is no way they can win a Federal election. You can blame Labor for their misfortunes if you like. Everyone else does. The facts are that Labor have been getting belted on climate change for most of the last 25 years. There are great events in motion. There will be political consequences as a result of these events. These consequences include the recurring defeat of Federal Labor. There’s no escape from this. Climate change is not going to be arrested anytime soon, and Labor will continue to pay the political price even though they are not the cause. There’s no justice in politics. It’s foolish to expect otherwise.

    Maybe the election of Biden will change the dynamics, but I doubt it. The LNP will play a nationalist/self-determinist line and this will be supported by the electorate. This kind of line is working for them in relation to China. It will work on climate change too.

    Glad to see you back on song, Briefly. For a while there, I thought you might be proposing that Labor should try and actually win.

    My mistake 🙁

  32. Rex Douglas says:
    Wednesday, January 20, 2021 at 1:51 pm
    The Lib-Lab fossil fuel cartel on the east coast has so clearly corrupted our federal polity – and with it the MSM as well.

    Voters must unshackle the federal parliament from these corrupt national traitors.

    Only then can Australia truly prosper.

    Describing the parliament as full of “corrupt …traitors” does nothing to advance the debate. It is simply more fuel for the truculence that we see everywhere.

    There’s a lot of venom…spite…malice….2 much for mine. It’s Trump-a-holic.

  33. Labor, despite it being corrupted by fossil fuel boosters, can win the election.

    The Howard-esque cash bribe to the outer urbs (childcare) will gain traction if promoted to within an inch of its life.
    As well, the promotion of the dangers of the Morrison mindset can also gain traction.
    A captains call by Albanese to replace Fitzgibbon with an AMWU aligned candidate in Hunter would also play favourably to Labors promotion of manufacturing.

    These few measures can win Labor the election.

  34. The easiest place for Labor to lose the next election is in the regions. In fact it has practically already done so. There are a few more low hanging regional electoral fruits coming the way of the Coalition.

    The noisiest ‘Friends of Labor on Bludger’ ALWAYS advise Labor to adopt policies that will lose them the remaining regional electorates.

    Morrison gets this. It is why he was seen recently with a can of XXXX in his hand at Quilpie while discussing the pork with his bush friends.

    Morrison just 100% loves it every single time the far left focuses on shutting down coal mines, uranium mines, cotton growing, almond growing, irrigation allocations, duck hunting, rodeos, live animal exports and the timber industry.

  35. Josh Frydenberg
    @JoshFrydenberg
    ·
    1h
    Helping Australians get a home of their own & supporting tradies’ jobs are top priorities for our Government as our economy recovers.

    Over 75,000 Australian households have applied for #HomeBuilder, benefitting tradies & home buyers in every state & territory. @MichaelSukkarMP

    HomeBuilder has been allowed to grow above the proposed ceiling, but JobSeeker had a clamp on it.

    Evidence of Coalitions inability to see past their favouritism of business and tradies and ignore the poor. It’s part of their trickle down mania.

  36. Since the Labor split over conscription in WW1, Labor have contested Federal elections from Opposition 29 times. They have succeeded on 4 occasions. They were defeated on 25.

    Labor’s plurality is at its weakest at any time since the Conscription split. On the balance, it has no chance whatsoever of winning from Opposition, and the supremacy of the LNP in QLD and WA is really the difference between the parties. This has applied for most of the last 30 years. It remains a determining factor.

  37. Trump is about to enter the worst days of his business career: report

    New Yorker reporter Gabe Sherman’s final piece of Trump’s presidency addresses the tattered brand that Trump leaves the White House with.

    “Trump is reportedly the target of multiple state-level civil and criminal investigations that could subject him to heavy financial penalties or even jail,” wrote Sherman. “And when he’s not meeting with lawyers or sitting in a courtroom, Trump faces this grim reality: his brand is in tatters.”

    Banned by social media giants and cut off by a growing list of companies, the outgoing president is also being shunned in the real estate industry. “It’s shocking,” said one industry veteran, that major brokerages are “not taking the business.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/trump-business-career-over/

    Gabe Sherman – https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/01/money-goes-towards-power-trump-is-exiting-the-white-house-with-his-brand-in-tatters

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