Conservation measures

The federal government takes remarkably principled action to preserve the Northern Territory’s second Labor-held seat without sacrificing the Australian Capital Territory’s third.

My previous post dealt with the report of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters’ inquiry into representation of the territories, which recommended the Northern Territory be crudely guaranteed a second House of Representatives seat while removing the more sophisticated statistical fiddle that helped preserve it when the issue last arose in 2003. As Antony Green noted, this proposal raised the strong possibility that the Australian Capital Territory might lose its recently acquired third seat the next time the determinations are made during the next parliamentary term. However, the federal government has sprung into action with new legislation that promises to preserve both territories’ seats by following Antony’s advice rather than the committee’s.

This is to be done by having the territories’ seat entitlements calculated through the harmonic rather than arithmetic mean, at least so far as their first three seats are concerned (beyond which the issue is likely to remain academic). The principle behind the harmonic mean can best be explained by using a simplified version of the Northern Territory case as an example. The basic problem is that the territory has around 150,000 voters, whereas the average House of Representatives seat has around 100,000 (population rather than voter enrolment is actually used, but the near accuracy of these nicely round figures means I will continue with them for purposes of illustration). Using the conventional arithmetic mean, this places the territory right at the cut-off point between a one-seat and two-seat entitlement. Two seats prevailed when the local economy had the wind in its sails during the late mining and resources boom, but in the more straitened circumstances of the present it only makes it to one.

Using the harmonic mean, the point at which rounding occurs is based not on the mid-point between the two quotas, but the point at which electorates’ populations differ least from the national average. Were the Northern Territory to lose its second seat, the remaining seat with its enrolment of around 150,000 would have 50,000 voters more than the national average. But if its second seat is retained, the two would have around 75,000 each, differing from the national average by only 25,000. The harmonic mean is all about minimising this difference, which in the present example would mean only one-and-a-third quotas would be needed for a second seat, or around 133,333 voters. For the Australian Capital Territory, which similarly stands on the precipice of two quotas and three, the third seat would be retained with 2.4 quotas (240,000 voters in the present example) rather than 2.5. The differences between the arithmetic and harmonic mean tipping points continue to reduce with each additional seat. By Antony Green’s reckoning, the ACT would have fallen below the arithmetic mean benchmark at 2.4796 quotas without the aforesaid statistical fiddle, which the committee had proposed to abolish without the remedial action of using the harmonic mean.

It is perhaps not surprising that the federal government has determined to save the second Northern Territory seat, notwithstanding that both seats are held by Labor: both are winnable for the Country Liberal Party, particularly the Darwin-based seat of Solomon, and an overstuffed single electorate for the Northern Territory would essentially amount to an act of malapportionment to the disadvantage of the territory’s substantial indigenous population. However, there is no such impetus in the Australian Capital Territory, where the Liberals only win House of Representatives seats under extraordinary circumstances (the most recent being the Canberra by-election of 1995), and the removal of a seat could be rationalised, if not justified, with recourse to public service bashing. At a time when mainstream conservatism in the United States is taking to the foundations of democracy with an axe, our own government’s defiance of self-interest to preserve Labor-held seats is worth acknowledging and celebrating.

Elsewhere: in the only bit of polling news to relate right now, JWS Research has released its latest True Issues survey of issue salience, as it does around three times a year. When respondents were asked to nominate the country’s three most important issues without prompting, 42% offered a response within the “hospitals, health care and ageing” category, which is down five from July but well up on the 24% recorded in the pre-COVID days of February. Results are otherwise very similar to the July survey, with economy and finances steady in second place at 32% after shooting up from 18% in February. A plunge in concern for the economy and climate change, down from 26% to 16% last time, has only slightly corrected to 19%, remaining well behind third-placed employment and wages on 32%, up two from July and eleven from February. The poll was conducted online between November 20 and 22 from a sample of 1035.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,023 comments on “Conservation measures”

Comments Page 2 of 21
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  1. Cashless debit card: government’s own research finds underwhelming support

    Researchers say there is “little consensus” the cashless debit card is fulfilling its intended aims of reducing drug and alcohol abuse in one of the trial sites, according to unpublished findings of an evaluation commissioned by the federal government.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/dec/07/cashless-debit-card-governments-own-research-finds-underwhelming-support

    The Coalition really are an absolute disgrace. They’re trying to ram this ineffective scam through the parliament when research has shown it doesn’t help. They got it passed in the House last night, so once again it is left to the Senate to protect Australia from these far-right nutters. Lets hope Lambie, Patrick and Griff do the right thing and join with the Greens and Labor to stop it. History will judge them on how they vote today.

  2. Friend visiting from Melbourne.

    Dan’s the man.

    What is a Peter Credlin ❓ “Who is he?” she said.

    Bill Shorten – 🐘 in gold with Diamonds. Rolled gold ✨✨✨✨✨

    Friend is the partner and carer (with partner) for twin extremely damaged young ladies. The girls are having their own house built. Long story. Seems you need some power behind the need. Yea Bill ❗

    A note. If Patrick is uncertain about the “Card” then obviously he needs to get some fresh air which would come just as soon as he pulled his head out of his arse. What a ………………

  4. Ian Mannix
    @sedvitae
    ·
    1m
    How long till unscrupulous employers of cooks and cleaners at hospitals and mining camps and airports register as hospitality? Then nurses, trainers, caterers’ penalties are at risk. It always happens under #libnats.

  5. C@tmomma
    Tuesday, December 8th, 2020 – 10:38 am
    Comment #53

    KayJay,
    Just show your friend a picture of this person to describe Peta de Credlin:

    My friend left this morning – returning to Melbourne.

    She’s a sensitive woman and prolly couldn’t handle the likes of the lady shown.

    However – I like the shoes. 👠🩰 I wonder what her granny is like.

  7. Good Morning.

    I agree with William that the government upholding democratic norms is great and worth celebrating. Despite the secrecy and demonisation practised by this government and increasingly authoritarian police powers granted to Federal Police.

    In the US something to celebrate on the same grounds too in a much more dire situation for free and fair elections.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/06/georgia-republican-election-official-says-trumps-false-voter-fraud-claims-undermine-democracy.html

  11. “Biden won.”

    ***

    Which does not change the fact that he is a war criminal who is responsible for getting millions of people killed. That is the reality of the situation whether you like it or not. He’s definitely not the first war crim in history to become the leader of a country, and unfortunately he almost certainly won’t be the last either.

  12. UK MPs have voted to reinstate controversial parts of a bill that could override the Brexit divorce deal and break international law.

    They rejected an earlier decision by the House of Lords to strip out key sections that would take precedence over the EU Withdrawal Agreement.

    Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s big Conservative majority meant the measures that have sparked consternation at home and abroad passed comfortably, by 357 votes to 268.

    Three Tory MPs rebelled to vote against the government, while 12 others – including Theresa May – abstained.

    The draft legislation will now be sent back to the House of Lords, beginning what is known as “ping pong” – when the two chambers do not back down to the other’s amendments.

  14. Does Trump delight in people dying? Seems so. Revenge on the world for not loving him enough?

    As Donald Trump’s presidency winds down, his administration is ratcheting up the pace of federal executions despite a surge of coronavirus cases in prisons, announcing plans for five starting on Thursday and concluding just days before the January 20 inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden.

    If the five go off as planned, it will make 13 executions since July when the Republican administration resumed putting inmates to death after a 17-year hiatus and will cement Trump’s legacy as the most prolific execution president in over 130 years. He will leave office having executed about a quarter of all federal death-row prisoners, despite waning support for capital punishment among both Democrats and Republicans.

    https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/trump-speeds-up-pace-of-executions-before-biden-inauguration-20201208-p56lgv.html

  15. Multiculturalism, and the institutions and services to support it, have since the mid-90s undergone almost constant fluctuation and changes of course, with no sustained articulation of a philosophy to carry it. The one clear line until very recently has been that we need to maintain large-scale immigration because it’s good for the economy.

    Now, over the past 20 to 30 years, this economic argument can be counted a success, and it has brought to Australia large numbers of people of very different cultural backgrounds including, manifestly, the PRC, and different religions including Muslims. But we have been shovelling them in with great regard for the economic benefit, and scant regard for the imperatives of successful settlement policy and social cohesion.

    If we don’t make the effort, what happens?

    A good settlement policy sees that immigrants have the linguistic and other skills to survive and flourish, but we now see almost daily reports of immigrants without these skills, and missing out, marginalised, exploited, and even, in times of disaster and pandemic, endangered.

    If a good settlement policy champions inclusion, we now see encouragement to division – through silence when there should be thundering condemnation, through the time-tested dog whistle which gives a green light to those who demonise the immigrant, and through the direct stigmatising and scapegoating of immigrant communities from many quarters, without restraint.

    We’ve not only lost the plot. We’re in danger of losing the values we like to pride ourselves on, and losing social cohesion.

    https://johnmenadue.com/steve-fitzgerald-we-have-lost-our-way-on-immigration-and-muliculturalism/

  16. lizzie @ #54 Tuesday, December 8th, 2020 – 10:46 am

    Ian Mannix
    @sedvitae
    ·
    1m
    How long till unscrupulous employers of cooks and cleaners at hospitals and mining camps and airports register as hospitality? Then nurses, trainers, caterers’ penalties are at risk. It always happens under #libnats.

    You know, lizzie, much as I fundamentally object to any company doing that, I’m kind of hoping they do overreach like that because it was similar actions, directed at the cleaners and cooks under WorkChoices, that made the scales fall from the eyes of the electorate as much as any successful Union campaign.

    I still remember vividly in 2013, handing out HTVs in Gosford and a couple of nurses turned up after the night shift. I said, if Tony Abbott gets elected, the Coalition are coming for YOUR Penalty Rates next. They smugly laughed in my face, refused the Labor HTV and ostentatiously took the Liberal one. They were voting for the money they made out of doing the Night Shift and what it afforded them to do with it, like buy investment properties.

    Well, they may forever be safe from the Coalition’s depredations, they are probably well advanced in their wealth accumulation strategy. However, anyone who comes after them won’t be. At the end of the day the Coalition doesn’t even care about them and their wealth management plans. And I hope the smiles are wiped off the smug faces of anyone who similarly believes the Coalition will never attack them due to their mistaken belief they are a protected species.

  17. C@t

    While I understand your theory of “push the people hard enough and they’ll turn against the government”, I no longer believe in it, because for all the crushing and unfair decisions the LNP have made, they are still supported, and a lot of their actions (such as filling regulatory and judicial bodies with their own kind) cannot be reversed by a single election.

  18. Kakuru @ #60 Tuesday, December 8th, 2020 – 11:11 am

    Oh gawd, not this Biden-is-a-war-criminal boilerplate again.

    Biden won. Sanders lost. So did Hawkins. Get over it.

    Not to mention Sanders and AOC and Elizabeth Warren, plus a slew of Justice Democrats, are working with Joe Biden and helping him craft his agenda.

    And why the numpties on this blog moronically promoting the boilerplate are simply embarrassing themselves on a daily basis and achieving less than zero. And why they will forever be useless idiots for their cause. Only one degree of separation away from Trumpists, who also believe in an insular foreign policy where America never engages in foreign wars. Which joins them with Jill Stein, useful idiot for Putin and HIS aggressively expansionist foreign policy and the WARS he fights to achieve it.

  19. Kakaru

    Get over it.

    Firefox I think has the view that the US is an imperial power that breaks the rules to suit itself while preaching human rights.
    Australia encountered this dynamic when Morrison got upset at a tweet.

    You can see the point China is making without excusing it by saying it’s going to behave in exactly the same way.

    That’s the danger with hypocrisy from democracies. The Authoritarian powers are going to point out your hypocrisy every time to justify their regimes.

    So the more we link votes of politicians to the war crimes the better not less. The war crime being the second Iraq war.

    At least that’s how I see the argument.

  20. lizzie @ #67 Tuesday, December 8th, 2020 – 11:39 am

    C@t

    While I understand your theory of “push the people hard enough and they’ll turn against the government”, I no longer believe in it, because for all the crushing and unfair decisions the LNP have made, they are still supported, and a lot of their actions (such as filling regulatory and judicial bodies with their own kind) cannot be reversed by a single election.

    Mundo agrees with Lizzie.

  21. lizzie @ #67 Tuesday, December 8th, 2020 – 11:39 am

    C@t

    While I understand your theory of “push the people hard enough and they’ll turn against the government”, I no longer believe in it, because for all the crushing and unfair decisions the LNP have made, they are still supported, and a lot of their actions (such as filling regulatory and judicial bodies with their own kind) cannot be reversed by a single election.

    lizzie,
    For all that, Labor are still within striking distance of Morrison. They are also getting better at calling out his duplicity and political maneuvers and winning elections whenever they are held.

    John Howard thought he was invincible too. He wasn’t. WorkChoices and the Senate Majority were his Achilles Heel.

    I’m prepared to look at the glass as half full.

  23. Cud Chewer

    If Scotty held out his hand to me, I’d turn and walk away, however public that was. My instinctive politeness could not survive my contempt for his self-serving actions.

  24. Labor is in a policy crisis.

    Albanese has been excellent at making that policy crisis bubble under the radar and not on the front pages every day.

    Once Labor loses it’s deadly political embrace with the stranded assets of the fossil fuel export industry it will be a force to be reckoned with.
    This area hamstrings the Labor ability to focus on the issues it needs to.

    An example is how Labor is opposing the Indue Anti Choice card from the party that pretends to stand for individual choice not government telling you what to do.

    Be assured from historical experience. Labor being for climate action combined with an Industrial Relations campaign sees Labor win. We know this because it’s exactly what Kevin Rudd did in 07.

  26. Copypasta (n): A copypasta is a block of text which is copied and pasted across the internet by individuals through online forums and social networking websites. Copypastas are said to be similar to spam.

  27. Morrison thanks the polly meeting for their support through the year. (Have your sick bag handy.)

    That stability, that unity of purpose, the selflessness of government, that is incredibly important. The humility of government is one that looks at what the needs of our community are, not what our interests are. And that is a mark of our Government as well as being an ambition of our Government at the same time and that’s what we must continue to strive to meet as we go into next year, thinking of always why we are here. It’s never about us. It’s always about those we have come here to serve.

  28. Republican infighting has become ‘the deranged vs. the demented vs. the deluded’: Conservative writer

    Conservative Charlie Sykes has been speaking out against the Republican Party since President Donald Trump took over the GOP. It has now become clear to him that the party is headed toward a cesspool of delusion.

    Speaking to MSNBC’s Nicolle Wallace on Monday, the host explained “circular firing squads do serve a purpose, I guess if you are talking about the rot in the Republican Party. But what does that look like? Do you think this is really the next phase of the MAGA devolution that they’ll be at war with Republicans who dare to tell the truth and do their job?”

    Sykes described it as “the deranged vs. the demented vs. the deluded.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/12/republican-infighting-has-become-the-deranged-vs-the-demented-vs-the-deluded-conservative-writer/

  29. lizzie says:
    Tuesday, December 8, 2020 at 11:22 am

    Does Trump delight in people dying?

    Jesus wept.

    The Justice Department recently updated protocols to allow for executions by firing squad and poison gas, though it’s unclear if those methods might be used in coming weeks.

  30. lizzie @ #77 Tuesday, December 8th, 2020 – 11:56 am

    Morrison thanks the polly meeting for their support through the year. (Have your sick bag handy.)

    That stability, that unity of purpose, the selflessness of government, that is incredibly important. The humility of government is one that looks at what the needs of our community are, not what our interests are. And that is a mark of our Government as well as being an ambition of our Government at the same time and that’s what we must continue to strive to meet as we go into next year, thinking of always why we are here. It’s never about us. It’s always about those we have come here to serve.

    Pity it bears no relation to the reality of his government this year.

    Though I’m sure he has already packaged up this homily for his fakebook and Twitter following. So that he can cement in his base of foolhardy followers.

  32. Trump administration officials passed when Pfizer offered in late summer to sell the U.S. more vaccine doses.

    Trump administration officials passed when Pfizer offered in late summer to sell the U.S. government additional doses of its Covid-19 vaccine, according to people familiar with the matter. Now Pfizer may not be able to provide more of its vaccine to the United States until next June because of its commitments to other countries, they said.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/07/us/trump-covid-vaccine-pfizer.html?referringSource=articleShare

  33. Firefox says:
    Tuesday, December 8, 2020 at 11:14 am
    “Biden won.”

    ***

    Which does not change the fact that he is a war criminal….

    This is a completely preposterous claim from PB’s Sorest Loser. It says a lot more about the claimant than it would ever say about Biden, who has just defeated an incumbent POTUS, much the the chagrin of the faux.

  34. “Not to mention Sanders and AOC and Elizabeth Warren, plus a slew of Justice Democrats, are working with Joe Biden and helping him craft his agenda.

    And why the numpties on this blog moronically promoting the boilerplate are simply embarrassing themselves on a daily basis and achieving less than zero. And why they will forever be useless idiots for their cause. Only one degree of separation away from Trumpists, who also believe in an insular foreign policy where America never engages in foreign wars. Which joins them with Jill Stein, useful idiot for Putin and HIS aggressively expansionist foreign policy and the WARS he fights to achieve it.”

    ***

    Bernie and co are not in denial about Biden’s Iraq vote though like you are. In fact, Sanders has repeatedly raised it…

    Sanders’ dig at Biden over Iraq, trade evokes his 2016 criticism of Clinton

    WASHINGTON — Engaged in a familiar dogfight atop the Democratic presidential primary, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., on Monday lobbed attacks at former Vice President Joe Biden almost identical to ones he used against his chief 2016 rival, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

    “Joe Biden voted and helped lead the effort for the war in Iraq, the most dangerous foreign policy blunder in the modern history of this country,” Sanders said Monday night on CNN.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/blog/meet-press-blog-latest-news-analysis-data-driving-political-discussion-n988541/ncrd1111771#blogHeader

    And it’s not surprising that conservatives from the Labor Right are again trying to blame the Dem establishment’s own failure (Clinton) on the Greens (Stein). They spend their days blaming the Australian Greens for Labor’s failures, so why not blame the Dems’ failures on the US Greens too? Just more Greens bashing to make themselves feel better.

    Oh, and if meeting Putin is a crime, then…

  35. Briefly

    If you support Biden you have to support the Greens to not be hypocritical.

    Biden and Greens policy have a lot in common.
    This is the shock for the right coming.

    To give you an idea. I don’t expect it’s going to happen but in US media there has been serious talk of Biden giving Andrew Yang a cabinet position.

    That’s an area the Greens have in common with Yang. Universal Basic Income. That’s a very good indication that an idea has gone from radically un feasible to mainstream acceptance.

    Biden is for science and real action on dangerous climate change. Only beaten by health due to a pandemic.

    Then look at the issue Firefox is arguing. You can understand the position once you see the Second Iraq War is a war crime. It’s a logical position. Not a fantasist position.

    You can disagree and argue that the second Iraq War is not a war crime in itself despite being illegal under international law. That’s also a valid position.

  36. guytaur
    “That’s the danger with hypocrisy from democracies. The Authoritarian powers are going to point out your hypocrisy every time to justify their regimes.”

    Luckily for these Authoritarian regimes, they have enablers like you and Firefox to point out (again and again) the hypocrasies and failures of democracies. Branding Biden a “war criminal” is the kind of propaganda that the CCP might relish. Not that Xi Jinping has much to write home about in the human rights stakes.

  37. Kakaru

    You are one of the Useful Idiots.

    I am anti war. I am not for the US being isolationist.
    I am for the UN established rules of international law as the best we have got.

    I don’t know I would go as far as calling Biden a war criminal. However I can see the argument. That’s not being an enabler. That’s taking the position Labor did when Howard rushed us into the war.

    Your pretending two individuals are in lockstep agreement on every detail and that means being for enabling Trump is where centrists lose people and enable Trump.

  38. Bloomberg
    @business
    · Dec 7
    Water is joining gold, oil and other commodities traded on Wall Street, highlighting worries that the life-sustaining natural resource may become scarce across more of the world https://trib.al/lAHKdKZ

    No surprises there, when speculators in Australia are buying it and storing it. Is Angus Taylor a speculator?

  39. Jamie@mintcustard

    Well, it happened. My ticket to Australia for next Sunday was cancelled today, 24 hours after I moved out of my rental. Airline said no flights til February. How many more #strandedAussies will be left homeless and desperate because there is no clear system to help us get home?

    The worst thing about this is the inability to make plans.

  40. Just show your friend a picture of this person to describe Peta de Credlin:

    That can’t be her – she’s smiling. Peta has a permanent scowl.

  42. C@tmomma @ #75 Tuesday, December 8th, 2020 – 12:05 pm

    lizzie @ #77 Tuesday, December 8th, 2020 – 11:56 am

    Morrison thanks the polly meeting for their support through the year. (Have your sick bag handy.)

    That stability, that unity of purpose, the selflessness of government, that is incredibly important. The humility of government is one that looks at what the needs of our community are, not what our interests are. And that is a mark of our Government as well as being an ambition of our Government at the same time and that’s what we must continue to strive to meet as we go into next year, thinking of always why we are here. It’s never about us. It’s always about those we have come here to serve.

    Pity it bears no relation to the reality of his government this year.

    Though I’m sure he has already packaged up this homily for his fakebook and Twitter following. So that he can cement in his base of foolhardy followers.

    Click to Edit – <b>lizzie</b> @ <a href='https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/12/08/conservation-measures/comment-page-2/#comment-3523361&#039; title='1607388973000'>#77 Tuesday, December 8th, 2020 – 11:56 am</a>

    <blockquote>Morrison thanks the polly meeting for their support through the year. (Have your sick bag handy.)

    <blockquote>That stability, that unity of purpose, the selflessness of government, that is incredibly important. The humility of government is one that looks at what the needs of our community are, not what our interests are. And that is a mark of our Government as well as being an ambition of our Government at the same time and that’s what we must continue to strive to meet as we go into next year, thinking of always why we are here. It’s never about us. It’s always about those we have come here to serve.
    </blockquote></blockquote>

    Pity it bears no relation to the reality of his government this year.

    Though I'm sure he has already packaged up this homily for his fakebook and Twitter following. So that he can cement in his base of foolhardy followers.SaveCancelDelete

    Oh he’s good. He is as black a heart as ever held the PMs office.

  46. Wil Morrison be attending the Climate Summit?

    RonniSalt
    @RonniSalt
    ·
    4m
    Note: Scott Morrison does not confirm he personally will “attend”, merely that *Australia* will participate

    Participate could mean anything.

    Having a Morrison govt minister online while the summit is in session does not equal Scott Morrison himself “attending”.

    Weasel wording.

  47. The guy who brought a lump of coal to parliament? Look like he cares about Climate Change and Global Heating as a result of Coal burning? By fronting up in person?

    Pull the other one. it plays ‘Jingle Bells’.

  48. @larrissawaters tweets
    The Greens are moving to suspend standing orders to discuss why the PM said he’d be participating the the Global Climate Summit, when diplomatic sources revealed Australia wasn’t invited to participate because of our dismal inaction on climate change.

  49. RonniSalt
    @RonniSalt
    ·
    1m
    Man who lives in several taxpayer funded houses with chefs, gardeners and personal assistants and who uses taxpayer funds to support his mother and mother-in-law in housing and also uses private planes to fly to harbour side parties would like you to know how selfless he is.

  50. @LindaBurneyMP tweets
    #BREAKING Labor’s @SenKatyG is moving a procedural motion to stop the Government ramming through its #CashlessDebitCard permanency legislation through the #Senate

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