My previous post dealt with the report of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters’ inquiry into representation of the territories, which recommended the Northern Territory be crudely guaranteed a second House of Representatives seat while removing the more sophisticated statistical fiddle that helped preserve it when the issue last arose in 2003. As Antony Green noted, this proposal raised the strong possibility that the Australian Capital Territory might lose its recently acquired third seat the next time the determinations are made during the next parliamentary term. However, the federal government has sprung into action with new legislation that promises to preserve both territories’ seats by following Antony’s advice rather than the committee’s.
This is to be done by having the territories’ seat entitlements calculated through the harmonic rather than arithmetic mean, at least so far as their first three seats are concerned (beyond which the issue is likely to remain academic). The principle behind the harmonic mean can best be explained by using a simplified version of the Northern Territory case as an example. The basic problem is that the territory has around 150,000 voters, whereas the average House of Representatives seat has around 100,000 (population rather than voter enrolment is actually used, but the near accuracy of these nicely round figures means I will continue with them for purposes of illustration). Using the conventional arithmetic mean, this places the territory right at the cut-off point between a one-seat and two-seat entitlement. Two seats prevailed when the local economy had the wind in its sails during the late mining and resources boom, but in the more straitened circumstances of the present it only makes it to one.
Using the harmonic mean, the point at which rounding occurs is based not on the mid-point between the two quotas, but the point at which electorates’ populations differ least from the national average. Were the Northern Territory to lose its second seat, the remaining seat with its enrolment of around 150,000 would have 50,000 voters more than the national average. But if its second seat is retained, the two would have around 75,000 each, differing from the national average by only 25,000. The harmonic mean is all about minimising this difference, which in the present example would mean only one-and-a-third quotas would be needed for a second seat, or around 133,333 voters. For the Australian Capital Territory, which similarly stands on the precipice of two quotas and three, the third seat would be retained with 2.4 quotas (240,000 voters in the present example) rather than 2.5. The differences between the arithmetic and harmonic mean tipping points continue to reduce with each additional seat. By Antony Green’s reckoning, the ACT would have fallen below the arithmetic mean benchmark at 2.4796 quotas without the aforesaid statistical fiddle, which the committee had proposed to abolish without the remedial action of using the harmonic mean.
It is perhaps not surprising that the federal government has determined to save the second Northern Territory seat, notwithstanding that both seats are held by Labor: both are winnable for the Country Liberal Party, particularly the Darwin-based seat of Solomon, and an overstuffed single electorate for the Northern Territory would essentially amount to an act of malapportionment to the disadvantage of the territory’s substantial indigenous population. However, there is no such impetus in the Australian Capital Territory, where the Liberals only win House of Representatives seats under extraordinary circumstances (the most recent being the Canberra by-election of 1995), and the removal of a seat could be rationalised, if not justified, with recourse to public service bashing. At a time when mainstream conservatism in the United States is taking to the foundations of democracy with an axe, our own government’s defiance of self-interest to preserve Labor-held seats is worth acknowledging and celebrating.
Elsewhere: in the only bit of polling news to relate right now, JWS Research has released its latest True Issues survey of issue salience, as it does around three times a year. When respondents were asked to nominate the country’s three most important issues without prompting, 42% offered a response within the “hospitals, health care and ageing” category, which is down five from July but well up on the 24% recorded in the pre-COVID days of February. Results are otherwise very similar to the July survey, with economy and finances steady in second place at 32% after shooting up from 18% in February. A plunge in concern for the economy and climate change, down from 26% to 16% last time, has only slightly corrected to 19%, remaining well behind third-placed employment and wages on 32%, up two from July and eleven from February. The poll was conducted online between November 20 and 22 from a sample of 1035.
Mundo Peerless is the name,
Gormless is the game.
Only gorming you Mundo,
No offense intended!
Goll @ #101 Tuesday, December 8th, 2020 – 1:22 pm
Is he STILL sucking up to/off Scotty from Marketing?
Cud Chewer
If Scotty held out his hand to me, I’d turn and walk away, however public that was. My instinctive politeness could not survive my contempt for his self-serving actions.
We know where that leads
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kePvZkV-Zcs
frednk
What disgusted me even more was that lecherous old Scotty fan laying his hands on her to protect the PM. No one gave him permission to ‘manhandle’ her.
This is an amazing story to read in order to understand the intriguing web that is aiding and abetting Donald Trump to steal an election. It involves Opus Dei, also known in America as The Thomas More Society, and their team of data miners, analysts and lawyers, principal among whom is Jenna Ellis, working to launch the interminable number of lawsuits that are running in America, on behalf of Trump.
That they are continually unsuccessful is not the point. They are meant to keep going on for years. They lose one, they launch another half dozen, like weeds that keep springing up, in order to create the illegitimacy mindset in the minds of the American people, true or not.
Here is an image of the chief data analyst and an employee:
Matt Braynard, right, leads a team that has been hunting for evidence of voter fraud. (Marvin Joseph/The Washington Post)
A Catholic sect, working with an amoral irreligious President of the United States, to dislodge from victory only the second Catholic President since John F.Kennedy. Let that sink in.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/thomas-more-jenna-ellis/2020/12/07/09057432-362d-11eb-b59c-adb7153d10c2_story.html
“ Joe Biden voted and helped lead the effort for the war in Iraq, the most dangerous foreign policy blunder in the modern history of this country,” Sanders said Monday night on CNN.”
Discerning readers will note that Sanders did not call Biden a war criminal. Unlike blowfly and other the disaffected trots.
Some more interesting Biden nominees to his cabinet, reflecting diversity:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/biden-has-chosen-retired-general-lloyd-austin-for-defence-secretary-20201208-p56lkk.html
https://probonoaustralia.com.au/news/2020/12/mental-health-and-income-support/
Just in time for the Australian parliament with the duopoly voting to ignore any scientific basis to decisions about climate change and reducing carbon pollution.
Let’s hope Australia over the coming climate summit, gets the dunces cap and gag but is allowed to listen to others not so filled with mediocrity and BS when it comes to climate change.
Australia deserves no more and no less.
Lib/Labs and the Murdochracy, cultivating Australian mediocrity and BS for decades
Australia endures hottest spring ever, with temperatures more than 2C above average
Maximum heat in November was average of 2.9C above long-term mean, despite a La Niña event, which typically brings cooler patterns
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/dec/01/australia-endures-hottest-spring-ever-with-average-temperatures-more-than-2c-above-average
guytaur says:
Tuesday, December 8, 2020 at 12:25 pm
Briefly
If you support Biden you have to support the Greens to not be hypocritical.
My criticism of the No Windmills Party is that they campaign day-in/day-out against Labor. The results are that the contra-LNP voices entirely lack cohesion and one-time Labor-positive voters have migrated to the LNP. The fallout means Labor cannot win federal elections.
The Right have the ascendancy in Australia. This has been our national experience most of the time since 1918. The dysfunction on the Centre-Left means this ascendancy is almost unassailable.
Voices from the No Windmills Party are essentially Labor-phobic. They’re also Democratic Party-phobic. They are shotguns for the Right, whether they like it or not.
Quoll says:
Tuesday, December 8, 2020 at 1:48 pm
Yup. Climate Change Politics has been appropriated by the No Windmills Party on one side and the Denialist Branch of the LNP on the other. As a result, nothing whatsoever will be achieved in the Federal Parliament, and instead the battles are being fought and won in State jurisdictions, mostly by Labor governments.
Labor is absolutely correct to yield not so much as a single inch to their enemies, the No Windmills Party. Fuck Them.
guytaur @ #97 Tuesday, December 8th, 2020 – 1:13 pm
I think you mean Labor is moving to su….oh, wait, you’re right it’s the Greens (the other opposition)
Goll @ #101 Tuesday, December 8th, 2020 – 1:29 pm
Mundo is un-offendible.
Life is too short.
Mundo has many peers here.
Most of them just don’t know it.
Is Barnaby Joyce set to challenge McCormack , by the sounds of his 90 second speech
Quoll is so lame the way they keep squawking ‘the duopoly’.
I never hear them squawking about ‘democracy’ though, in order to explain that it was the people, in 150 electorates across Australia, who elected the members of the ‘duopoly’.
What a nitwit Quoll is.
C@tmomma @ #103 Tuesday, December 8th, 2020 – 1:31 pm
Hey Catmoaner you got over me don’t you remember?
Stop stalking me it’s creepy.
Scott,
I don’t think Scott Morrison would allow a loose cannon like Barnaby Joyce back to be DPM. No matter how much Joyce thinks he’s deserving of the position. Morrison is happy with the Elvis impersonator.
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, December 8, 2020 at 2:04 pm
Scott,
I don’t think Scott Morrison would allow a loose cannon like Barnaby Joyce back to be DPM. No matter how much Joyce thinks he’s deserving of the position. Morrison is happy with the Elvis impersonator.
————-
Maybe why Morrison is losing it at the first question
How can anyone with a brain support spending millions on keeping the Biloela family locked up, while keeping people starving on welfare, and spending millions to punish the unemployed without providing any jobs for them? Conclusion: Liberals are a brainless set of grifters.
” Liberals are a brainless set of grifters.”
Trouble is half the public cant see it.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/dec/08/real-estate-agencies-accused-of-double-dipping-millions-of-dollars-in-jobkeeper
The speaker has lied again with his general warning to all members, he looks straight towards Labor
Morrison mocks and attacks Jim Chalmers, suggesting to me that Jim has got under his skin. Well done!
In an electoral system using single-member electorates, a “duopoly” is pretty much an inevitable outcome. Preferential voting mitigates its worst effects by allowing you to vote for a minor party or independent without wasting your vote – sometimes they actually win seats.
C@tmomma @ #106 Tuesday, December 8th, 2020 – 1:44 pm
C@t,
I can’t access the article, but any mention of Opus Dei in and around politics fills me with dread. Having said that, I can’t find anything to support your statement “Opus Dei, also known in America as the Thomas More Society”.
Is there something in the article to support this assertion? Because despite some similarities between the two organisations, I don’t think it’s correct to say that one is just another name for the other.
Ken Uncle Tom Wyatt looks like he’s gonna jump and kiss that fat faced little fucker Highpants right on the mouth any minute…..can’t watch this shit show any longer…
mundo
Yes, I saw that. He seems to think Josh is amusing. I’m not a fan of Mr Wyatt.
Scott @ #122 Tuesday, December 8th, 2020 – 2:22 pm
He also named Labor members first….
steve davis @ #120 Tuesday, December 8th, 2020 – 2:16 pm
Just over half…..
I am looking forward to next year. Biden’s Presidency is going to be a game changer.
How?
He puts science above politics. Meaning he knows as many have learnt from the pandemic that you must listen to expert evidence based policy in government.
As a result action on climate change is happening.
This leads to the worlds great powers not relying on oil and the power dynamics associated with it in the Middle East.
This leads to a more rational approach to the conflicts there.
We could see peace and stable democracies emerge as a result.
It’s definitely no certainty but compared to the last century I think we can be more optimistic for peace in the region.
lizzie @ #121 Tuesday, December 8th, 2020 – 2:17 pm
Imagine what Abbott would have made of the Covid rorting……
Does Abbott believe that Covid is real?
“ The Thomas More Society is a not-for-profit, national public interest law firm dedicated to restoring respect in law for life, family, and religious liberty. Based in Chicago, the Thomas More Society defends and fosters support for these causes by providing high quality pro bono legal services from local trial courts all the way to the United States Supreme Court.”
https://www.thomasmoresociety.org/about/
It is not Opus Dei.
“Quoll is so lame the way they keep squawking ‘the duopoly’.
I never hear them squawking about ‘democracy’ though, in order to explain that it was the people, in 150 electorates across Australia, who elected the members of the ‘duopoly’.
What a nitwit Quoll is.”
***
That’s the same democracy that voted the Coalition in, which by your logic means we shouldn’t be “squawking” about them either. Yeah, nah, that’s not how it works.
People holding the Coalition Government and the Labor Opposition de jure – the duopoly – accountable is the sign of a healthy democracy.
It is those in the parties of the establishment who attempt to silence the voices of criticism and debate who have a problem with democracy.
When Morrison fails to answer a QT question by Labor, Tony Smith always finds a reason to excuse him. Not quite Bronnie style, but moving towards it.
I missed this.
And Bunnings is just a struggling local hardware store? No wonder their decisions are out of whack with reality.
Guytaur
Without the Senate much of that is unachievable.
lizzie says:
Tuesday, December 8, 2020 at 2:37 pm
Does Abbott believe that Covid is real?
————–
Abbott thinks Its crap like climate change
mundo:
Tuesday, December 8, 2020 at 2:29 pm
[‘Ken Uncle Tom Wyatt looks like he’s gonna jump and kiss …Highpants right on the mouth any minute…..can’t watch this shit show any longer…’]
Although I personally have difficulty in understanding why a person of Aboriginal descent would join the Tory Party, particularly in light of the latest incarnation of paternalism – the Cashless Debit Card – a reference to Wyatt and Beecher Stowe’s novel is a bit over the top. He seems to be a decent man, though arguably somewhat misguided.
Spray,
I guess I presumed The Thomas More Society had links to Conservative Catholics due to the history of the man:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_More
Spray,
If you are interested, I have a free 30 day access to The Washington Post you can have if you want? 🙂
Today’s thoughts on Brexit.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/08/showdown-in-brussels-pm-hanging-on-for-brexit-deal-papers-say
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/eu-uk-leaders-say-conditions-to-seal-brexit-trade-deal-not-there
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/07/brexit-boris-johnson-brussels-face-to-face-meeting-ursula-von-der-leyen
https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1207/1182798-brexit/
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/12/7/uks-johnson-to-head-to-brussels-to-break-brexit-deadlock
Johnson is boldly going to Brussels, to take them on. By himself. What a hero. Sadly though, a very hard Brexit is almost upon the UK and the EU. While the shocks to the UK (and to a lesser extent the EU) that are about to happen are now inevitable, the ongoing politics between the two will be even more difficult if they fail to arrive at a politically necessary deal now, no matter how thin. And both sides know this. The problem is that whatever “olive branch” Johnson holds out will need the EU’s help to sell it in the UK. And if Johnson continues to frame the EU as the opposition I don’t see the EU accepting the tag of loser just so Johnson can be the winning UK’s hero. As far as the EU are concerned the British people are Johnson’s problem. And perhaps they see an easier time when he’s gone?
It already won’t look good. And without a deal it will look even worse. I’m not hopeful.
Steve777 @ #137 Tuesday, December 8th, 2020 – 2:38 pm
How anodyne of them.
C@tmomma: “I guess I presumed The Thomas More Society had links to Conservative Catholics due to the history of the man:”
I don’t think it would be reasonable to describe St Thomas More as a “conservative Catholic.” Sure, he opposed the Reformation, but that was an existential crisis for English Catholics, so they all opposed it.
Paul Scofield did a fine job portraying More in the 1960s movie A Man for All Seasons: an admirably humanitarian and progressive thinker, but also an unnecessarily stubborn man who was in some ways a bit of a wanker.
PS: I have a vague recollection of going to a lecture organised by the St Thomas More Society a few decades back, so they must have an Australian chapter as well.
Government members interject , Speaker turfs out Labor members
Put in a no confidence motion against the speaker Labor , it will be in the offical hansard
Next question to Jug Ears.
“When Labor was in power it used income averaging as one of the means of detecting POSSIBLE instances of misreporting of income by benefit recipients. In every one of these cases government officers will then undertake a detailed review of the information available and, if they found that there was indeed a case for the recipient to answer, would then, and only then, contact the recipient .
Why, in 2014 did this government decide to eliminate the human intervention and judgement and launch the proven unlawful robodebt scheme?”
Re C@t @ 2:52. I just copied that from their site – it’s how they describe themselves, like the IPA being an “Independent, non-partisan public policy forum”.