Essential Research state and federal leadership polling

High and improving personal ratings for all incumbent leaders, as concern about COVID-19 eases just slightly.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research survey includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Scott Morrison up three on approval to 66% and down two on approval to 25%, Anthony Albanese down four on approval to 40% and up four on disapproval to 39%, and Morrison holding a 53-24 lead as preferred prime minister, out from 50-25. There was also a six point increase in the government’s good rating on COVID-19 response to 67%, with the poor rating steady on 15%.

As it did a fortnight ago, the poll also asked about the mainland state premiers from the small sub-samples in the relevant states: Gladys Berejiklian was at 75% approval (up seven) and 17% disapproval (down four); Daniel Andrews at 65% approval (up four) and 28% disapproval (down five); Annastacia Palazczuk at 65% approval (steady) and 27% disapproval (up three); Mark McGowan at 87% (up nine) approval and 7% disapproval (down five); and Steven Marshall, who was not featured in last fortnight’s polling, at 60% approval and 21% disapproval. State government handling of COVID-19 was rated as good by 82% of respondents in Western Australia, 76% in South Australia, 75% in New South Wales, 71% in Queensland and 59% in Victoria.

Respondents were asked how much attention they had been paying to recent news stories, with 73% saying they had closely followed the easing of COVID-19 restrictions in Victoria, 68% the US presidential election, 36% the allegations of sexual misconduct raised by the ABC’s Four Corners, and 29% Joel Fitzgibbon’s resignation from the shadow cabinet. It also finds an easing in concern over COVID-19, with 27% rating themselves very concerned (down three), 44% quite concerned (down two), 23% not that concerned (up three) and 6% not at all concerned (up two). The peak of concern was in early August, when 50% were very concerned, 40% quite concerned, 7% not that concerned and 3% not at all concerned.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1010.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,211 comments on “Essential Research state and federal leadership polling”

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  1. “In 2016, when Trump won MI, PA and WI by 77, 000 votes, it was part of his “landslide” victory.

    In 2020, when Biden won MI, PA and WI by 255,000 votes, and won the popular vote by 6 million, it was “voter fraud.” ”

    Biden’s winning margin in PA 2020 alone was greater than Trump’s total margin in 5 key states in 2016.

  2. Cud Chewer
    Yeah, what’s a few million dead and wounded between friends eh ? Let bygones be bygones and look forward to the glorious future.

  3. “I agree with William on Trump and Covid. He blew it. Covid has been a political gift to leaders who have responded to it well. Qld Labor was facing defeat in the polls 12 months ago, but Anna Palaszczuk dealt with it well and enlarged her majority. Same with Ardern in NZ (not facing defeat but expanded ot a record majority).

    Trump jumped to an initial of Covid assessment that was wrong in his usual random fashion but, also as usual, he arrogantly stuck to it and ignored the expert advice. Victim of his own hubris, like 250,000 other Americans”

    ***

    Correct. His catastrophic mishandling of COVID was Trump’s ultimate undoing. It highlighted his incompetence to the American people in a way that simply could not be ignored any longer. I mean, he pretty much dismissed it as nothing to worry about at all. Huge political mistake, not to mention really stupid.

  4. The Food and Drug Administration on Saturday granted emergency authorization to the experimental antibody treatment given to President Trump last month when he developed covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus.

    The drug, made by Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, is designed to prevent infected people from developing severe illness. Instead of waiting for the body to develop its own protective immune response, the drug imitates the body’s natural defenses. It is the second drug of this type — called a monoclonal antibody — to be cleared for covid-19. The FDA authorized Eli Lilly & Co.’s drug on Nov. 9.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/21/regeneron-fda-clearance/

  5. The USA went to war for 6 years over 3000 deaths in the twin towers, yet 250,000 dead from the virus and they dont give a fuck.

  6. E. G. Theodore @ #1439 Sunday, November 22nd, 2020 – 10:42 am

    Trump’s COVID response drove turnout of the new Trump voters in proportion to the incompetence (and malfeasance, perhaps even more so) of that response, because the worse it got, and the worse the pandemic became, the more it:
    – owned the Libs
    – owned the Blue States
    – owned the quacks (what would they know)
    – owned the shysters
    – leveled the playing field down to the level of stupid
    All of this was and is celebrated by the new Trump “base”, and drove them to vote. The worse the response got, the more they voted (state by state)..

    There might be a simpler possibility:

    – The worse COVID got, the more unemployment there was
    – The job losses tended to affect unskilled, low-paid positions the most (restaurant staff, retailers, hospitality, etc.)
    – A person left unemployed by COVID probably wants 1) COVID to go away and 2) COVID-related restrictions to end, and has plenty of time to vote
    – Trump (baselessly) promised that COVID would go away and that there’d be no more lockdowns

    Tell millions of involuntarily-idle and angry people from one of your most favorable demographics (non-college-educated working-class) that you’ll give them what they want, and it’s not surprising that they vote for you.

  8. Bernie Sanders
    @SenSanders
    ·
    4m
    Income and wealth inequality is soaring. Today, 1 in 4 U.S. workers are either unemployed or earn a poverty wage of less than $20,000 a year. Meanwhile, the 50 richest Americans own more wealth than the bottom 50%. We have got to create an economy that works for all, not the 1%.

    Biden must address this to at least maintain the 2020 Dem voter turnout.

  9. Firefox @ #1453 Sunday, November 22nd, 2020 – 12:05 pm

    “I agree with William on Trump and Covid. He blew it. Covid has been a political gift to leaders who have responded to it well. Qld Labor was facing defeat in the polls 12 months ago, but Anna Palaszczuk dealt with it well and enlarged her majority. Same with Ardern in NZ (not facing defeat but expanded ot a record majority).

    Trump jumped to an initial of Covid assessment that was wrong in his usual random fashion but, also as usual, he arrogantly stuck to it and ignored the expert advice. Victim of his own hubris, like 250,000 other Americans”

    ***

    Correct. His catastrophic mishandling of COVID was Trump’s ultimate undoing. It highlighted his incompetence to the American people in a way that simply could not be ignored any longer. I mean, he pretty much dismissed it as nothing to worry about at all. Huge political mistake, not to mention really stupid.

    Yes, but certain state leaders are as bad.

    It’s a total cluster!@#$

  12. Income and wealth inequality is soaring. Today, 1 in 4 U.S. workers are either unemployed or earn a poverty wage of less than $20,000 a year. Meanwhile, the 50 richest Americans own more wealth than the bottom 50%.

    And that the way Australia is going under Trump Jr.

  13. a r @ #1460 Sunday, November 22nd, 2020 – 9:18 am

    Biden must address this to at least maintain the 2020 Dem voter turnout.

    Nope. Priority number 1 for Biden has to be the pandemic.

    100% and it’s very disturbing that congressional Republicans are reportedly going to do whatever they can to block the Biden government’s efforts to address the pandemic.

  14. The Democrats can reach out to Trump voters by fulfilling a Trump promise Progressives like.

    End the ForEver Wars.

    Phrased exactly like that.

    Edi: Yes I used reach out. I am not going to beat it so I am joining in.

  16. Cud Chewer @ #1244 Saturday, November 21st, 2020 – 5:07 pm

    My thoughts on Melbourne’s rail network.

    I’m disappointed that they aren’t willing to go for an uncompromised airport rail link. That could have been the start of a high speed rail line to the north.

    Why the campaign for expensive Interstate HSR when we have many good and improving highways soon to be filled with electric vehicles ?

    I thing the Shepparton line upgrades are pretty measured and worthwhile.
    https://regionalrailrevival.vic.gov.au/shepparton
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MB-_mbYFO_g

  17. Even if Dems do win a Senate majority, I don’t think Biden will be ramming anything in let alone far reaching reform. He needs to start winning over some of these lost Trumpian souls.

  20. NE Qld

    Then you don’t understand the Trump voter.

    Their view that got Trump into their heads was that things are so bAd it’s time to destroy the house and build from the foundation up.

    Trump voters want reform radical is not a word that scares them. Not even safety as they buy Trump’s dogma dying in their hospital bed.

    Now is exactly the time when Democrats can be radical. That appeals to Trump voters.

    Edit: The only question for Democrats is how radical?

  21. It can’t seem to find whether the Vic Govt is going to also partner with the Feds in extending the Frankston rail line to Baxter. That’s a no-brainer I’d have thought.

  22. Biden needs to get some sort of moderate republican support at all levels of government for a national response to the coronavirus and jobs. There seems to be enough Republican state governors etc of hard hit states willing to sit at the table.

  23. a r
    Trump’s airy dismissal of the threat and promise of it all being good soon is offering ‘hope’.Sadly for Trump the election was not before it became obvious the hope he offered was genuine No Hope. Our own Happy Clapper likes to see himself as a ‘hope dealer’ .

    .. Scott Morrison urges Daniel Andrews to offer hope

    .

    “We are dealers of hope,” Mr Morrison told party members

  25. Biden-Harris have 2 years to build the Dem voter turnout for the mid-terms to set up real opportunity for reform.

    They have to at least maintain the widespread turnout they gained at this Presidential election.

    They won’t do that if they don’t address inequality.

  28. meher baba:

    Sunday, November 22, 2020 at 8:21 am

    [‘But our school is notorious for having more outbreaks than just about any others: it’s an upper middle class private school where most of the parents are far too busy with their careers to have time to undertake the tedious task of systematically combing through their kids’ hair.’]

    Surely under the class-system operating in Tassie, the treatment of head lice should be the responsibility of au pairs or nannies.

  29. NEQld

    McConnell is radical.

    If the Democrats win the Senate they need zero Republican to do structural reform on the election and court processes.

    Without the voter suppression the extreme GOP loses power.

    Stop thinking about the US in Australian terms. Biden has already advanced ending student debt. A policy Labor can take up with free universities.

    The so called radical agenda is not dependent on Republican support. Their voters support these policies. They are populist as well as good policy.

    Recognise how radical the GOP is. The Democrats are going to have to.
    McConnell if in control of the Senate will not even bring Democratic legislation to the Senate. So Senator Collins etc won’t even get to vote on it.

  30. Roger Miller @ #1437 Sunday, November 22nd, 2020 – 11:09 am

    SK
    “She asked me yesterday why sound echos – it is not an object, how can it bounce back off things. Sheesh.”
    That’s a really great question! It’s quite easy to demonstrate that a transverse wave does “bounce” and to get a look at what is happening at the boundary. Also a good chance to introduce the idea that particles and waves can exhibit the same behaviour.

    Yes, thanks for the post. I did 1st year physics and have tried to answer her (surprised how much I remember). Then got onto some NASA videos about sound and waves to reinforce it. She asks intelligent questions but not so keen on receiving answers that often require a staged process of learning. Attention span, patience and willingness to listen are stumbling blocks with any 8yo – more so with this one. Yet, like the Colgate chalk, it does seep in.

  37. Guytaur, you seem to be advocating a continuation of the war. Maybe I am unrealistic, but I am hoping for a kind of truce and reset from Biden. Take the heat out of Trumpist arguments.

  38. According to this NBC article, Democrats are pushing Biden to aggressively use his executive powers to overcome blocking by a potentially hostile senate.

    Democratic senators are calling on President-elect Joe Biden to use executive power to advance goals such as tackling climate change, relieving student debt and creating a more progressive immigration system.

    The calls from senators reflect a recognition that Democratic lawmakers may not be able to pass a transformative legislative agenda after under-performing in congressional races. And unless Democrats win two Georgia Senate runoffs on Jan. 5, Biden will be the first president since 1989 to enter office without his party controlling both chambers of Congress.

    “The president-elect, beginning on January 20, should act as aggressively as possible to reverse the effects of the four years of Donald Trump, and to advance a more positive and effective agenda to make the United States the leader in fighting the climate crisis,” Sen. Ed Markey, D-Mass., told NBC News.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/bypassing-mcconnell-democrats-push-biden-aggressively-use-executive-power-n1248457

  40. NE Qld

    Recognise the importance of the Senate run off.

    There will be no Democrat agenda in legislation with McConnell in control of the Senate.

    It’s that simple. McConnell has proved what a radical political warrior he is.

  41. Cud Chewer @ #1485 Sunday, November 22nd, 2020 – 12:56 pm

    Rex

    My issue is you don’t explain your logic. What has electric cars and highways got to do with the desirability of HSR?

    I think that should be read as ‘with my desirability of HSR?’ …?

    Basically I think what’s been announced by the Vic and Fed Govts re rail transport infrastructure is reasonable as a priority.

  42. “Somehow I can’t see Australia’s AG Porter ever making this list”
    As many on the anti-corruption list are in the media, I’m certain no-one in the Australian ABC/MSM would come close to being considered.

  43. Biden-Harris need to take attention away from the Trumpist-QAnon narrative.

    They’ve won the Whitehouse – time to settle down into meat and veggie politics and leadership that everyone can relate to.

  44. Rex

    Well that’s a statement of your comfort level. Its not really an argument.

    The biggest reason for HSR is that it does what highways do, only it is a lot better value for money. Put a highway alongside a HSR line. They’re roughly comparable in terms of cost. But HSR moves many times more people, a lot faster. That’s why its worth building.

    I don’t have a problem with incremental improvements in suburban rail lines or metros. There is not a competition between HSR and other priorities in rail. HSR competes mainly with cars, over the domain of 10s to 100s of kilometres.

    The Feds have not a single clue when it comes to passenger rail.

  45. Cud Chewer @ #1494 Sunday, November 22nd, 2020 – 1:09 pm

    Rex

    Well that’s a statement of your comfort level. Its not really an argument.

    The biggest reason for HSR is that it does what highways do, only it is a lot better value for money. Put a highway alongside a HSR line. They’re roughly comparable in terms of cost. But HSR moves many times more people, a lot faster. That’s why its worth building.

    I don’t have a problem with incremental improvements in suburban rail lines or metros. There is not a competition between HSR and other priorities in rail. HSR competes mainly with cars, over the domain of 10s to 100s of kilometres.

    The Feds have not a single clue when it comes to passenger rail.

    “But HSR moves many times more people, a lot faster. That’s why its worth building.”

    That depends on demand.

  46. Simon Katich @ #1480 Sunday, November 22nd, 2020 – 9:52 am

    Roger Miller @ #1437 Sunday, November 22nd, 2020 – 11:09 am

    SK
    “She asked me yesterday why sound echos – it is not an object, how can it bounce back off things. Sheesh.”
    That’s a really great question! It’s quite easy to demonstrate that a transverse wave does “bounce” and to get a look at what is happening at the boundary. Also a good chance to introduce the idea that particles and waves can exhibit the same behaviour.

    Yes, thanks for the post. I did 1st year physics and have tried to answer her (surprised how much I remember). Then got onto some NASA videos about sound and waves to reinforce it. She asks intelligent questions but not so keen on receiving answers that often require a staged process of learning. Attention span, patience and willingness to listen are stumbling blocks with any 8yo – more so with this one. Yet, like the Colgate chalk, it does seep in.

    Use mirrors and a light to establish the concept of reflection, an echo.

    Then explain that this is also what happens when sound hits a solid object.

    The reason we notice the echo with sound is because sound is so much slower (~330 m/s) than light.

  47. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1496 Sunday, November 22nd, 2020 – 1:16 pm

    Simon Katich @ #1480 Sunday, November 22nd, 2020 – 9:52 am

    Roger Miller @ #1437 Sunday, November 22nd, 2020 – 11:09 am

    SK
    “She asked me yesterday why sound echos – it is not an object, how can it bounce back off things. Sheesh.”
    That’s a really great question! It’s quite easy to demonstrate that a transverse wave does “bounce” and to get a look at what is happening at the boundary. Also a good chance to introduce the idea that particles and waves can exhibit the same behaviour.

    Yes, thanks for the post. I did 1st year physics and have tried to answer her (surprised how much I remember). Then got onto some NASA videos about sound and waves to reinforce it. She asks intelligent questions but not so keen on receiving answers that often require a staged process of learning. Attention span, patience and willingness to listen are stumbling blocks with any 8yo – more so with this one. Yet, like the Colgate chalk, it does seep in.

    Use mirrors and a light to establish the concept of reflection, an echo.

    Then explain that this is also what happens when sound hits a solid object.

    The reason we notice the echo with sound is because sound is so much slower (~330 m/s) than light.

    Simon if you get the opportunity take her to this
    https://southaustralia.com/products/barossa/attraction/whispering-wall

  48. Rudy Giuliani angered by reporter asking if he wants preemptive pardon before Trump leaves office

    President Donald J. Trump’s personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani told HuffPost reporter Ryan J. Reilly to “get lost” Saturday. The comment came after Reilly asked Giuliani if he wanted the president to preemptively pardon him before he leaves office.

    “Just wanted to see if you’d made a deal with him or something,” Reilly wrote.

    Was worth a shot! (Also this isn’t a denial!) pic.twitter.com/yNi5ts7ZYd — Ryan J. Reilly (@ryanjreilly) November 21, 2020

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/11/rudy-giuliani-angered-by-reporter-asking-if-he-wants-preemptive-pardon-before-trump-leaves-office/

  49. However the Georgia run offs go, Biden is going to be treading a fine line. The best the Democrats can hope for is 50-50 in the Senate. The US does not have the level of party solidarity that we have here in Australia. That means to get things through every Democrat Senator is going to have to be on board, and some of them are far from progressive. Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to see the sort of reform agenda some on here talk about, but the numbers just don’t ad up for it unfortunately. What is going to be interesting to watch is the use of executive orders and on what issues they are used.

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