On and off again

The 2019 federal election pollster failure gets probed and prodded, as the dust settles on the Queensland election

The site experienced issues yesterday that prevented comments from appearing, which are now more-or-less resolved. However, this involved a lot of plugin updates that might cause certain of the site’s features to misfire for a while. One issue seems to be that comments pagination wasn’t working on the previous thread, hence the need for a new thread despite me not having all that much to relate. Except:

• The Association of Market and Social Research Organisations has published its report into the 2019 opinion poll failure, which is important and a big deal, but such has been the pace of events lately that I haven’t had time to really look at it yet. Kevin Bonham has though, and he elaborates upon the report’s analysis of historical federal poll performance by looking at state polls as well, which fail to replicate a finding that polls have a general skew to Labor.

• Recounts in the Queensland cliffhanger seats of Bundaberg and Nicklin confirmed Labor’s narrow victories, by nine rather than the original 11 votes in Bundaberg, and by 85 rather than the original 79 in Nicklin.

Simon Benson of The Australian reports privately commissioned post-Queensland election polling by JWS Research found 24% rated “economy, jobs and living costs” as the most important issue, with COVID-19 on 15%, the state’s border arrangements in response on 14% (one might well think the results for these two responses should be combined), environment and climate change on 9%, health on 8% and infrastructure on 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,015 comments on “On and off again”

Comments Page 5 of 21
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  1. lizzie

    I wonder how many of the “freedom brigade” whinge about seat belts? Probably not many. The media don’t do us any favours giving these people oxygen.

    As for certain experts. Sadly there are a bunch of “experts” in this country who are motivated by a particular world view or agenda. I notice my old pal Collignon still out there in the media, recently telling us that Queensland should just accept reality and give up on its covid free status.

    I’m also willing to wager that in the next couple of weeks, Victoria will ease mask wearing rules, probably along the lines of indoor/outdoor.

  2. Poroti

    Re Parler and Russian money, you may want to look at this thread on Twitter (a selection below)

    @davetroy

    So let’s talk about Parler. Where did it come from? Founder John Matze met his now wife, Alina Mukhutdinova, in May 15, 2016 in Las Vegas. Alina is from Kazan, Russia. She was on a two week road trip “vacation” across the USA with a friend.

    John and Alina were married December 2, 2017 in Kazan, Tatarstan, Russia. They were married in a government facility overseen by Alina’s mother, Gulnara Mukhutdinova, a longtime government functionary. Gulnara’s mother was an “Honored Builder of Russia” in Soviet times.

    Also, a preliminary analysis of the first several thousand accounts on Parler shows that it is the usual Russia aligned operatives that we in this space have tracked for years. This is a large scale op aligned with Russian interests.

    Now let’s talk money. Parler LLC is owned by two member entities: John Matze and NDMASCENDANT LLC. There is no public record of who comprises NDMASCENDANT LLC. It is a Delaware corporation. The company has not raised any traditional VC rounds that we can see.

    Oh, and one more thing. It seems NDMASCENDANT LLC was filed by Greenberg Traurig, LLP. If that sounds familiar it’s because it’s Rudy Giuliani’s former firm. He was traveling in Russia and the region at the time Parler was founded in late 2018.

    So what might be next for Parler? We anticipate Trump will join and announce his plan to transition away from Twitter. Kanye West too; maybe some others. But to do that, Parler needs to be ready to scale up quickly, which requires $$$ and people.

    Again, where’s that coming from?

  3. zoomster and CC

    We’re all experts now. 😆

    Epidemiologist ‘really disappointed’ with Victoria’s ‘bizarre’ COVID-19 road map

    Professor Catherine Bennett from Deakin.

  4. CC

    I’m still struggling with something I read, that anti-bodies to covid-19 (or is it to SARS-CoV-2?) disappear in a few months. “Vaccine” is a generic concept that implies long term immunity. If an inexpensive vaccine provides long term immunity then we have a different situation than where it provides short term immunity. I’m also thinking that the USA is going to be a source of SARS-CoV-2 for some time.

    I like your point about vaccinating travellers. I remember having to do that to get visas to visit various places in the Pacific and South America in years past.

  5. Jodi Doering
    @JodiDoering
    I have a night off from the hospital. As I’m on my couch with my dog I can’t help but think of the Covid patients the last few days. The ones that stick out are those who still don’t believe the virus is real. The ones who scream at you for a magic medicine and that Joe Biden is

    Going to ruin the USA. All while gasping for breath on 100% Vapotherm. They tell you there must be another reason they are sick. They call you names and ask why you have to wear all that “stuff” because they don’t have COViD because it’s not real. Yes. This really happens.

  6. zoomster

    The reason Victoria is keeping the mask wearing rule is because it increases the chance of elimination. I agree that the government should be more up front with people about it and explain why it matters.

  7. lizzie

    Catherine got her comeuppance here:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-29/coronavirus-melbourne-how-we-hit-our-target/12826692

    Could it have been done differently? What if DHHS relied on the advice of our teams’ detractors? What if team Victoria had not bravely stuck to the game plan and instead listened to the loudest voices?

    Sure, restrictions could have been lifted in mid-September. All kids could have gone back to school, movement could have been less restricted, and more businesses could have opened-up again.

    But would the combined effects of these shortcuts have moved us any closer to our goal? Closer to a COVID-free Christmas and Summer? The chance once again to travel around Australia or even the world?

    We don’t think so.

  8. Still getting my mind around RCEP signing today, what does this mean for the geopolitics of the region. India declined to join, but can a later date. USA not invited.

    Morrison is shown holding the pen..

  9. KayJay

    Even I didn’t know Shorten was proposing a Federally funded fleet of firefighting aircraft until after the election (C@t pointed it out to me). Such is our worse than useless media.

  10. There is a community outbreak of Covid-19 in SA and it seems to have likely emanated from an overseas hotel quarantine facility.
    Is it not the federal government’s responsibility to protect us from overseas infection?
    Please discuss.

  11. Cud Chewer @ #209 Sunday, November 15th, 2020 – 5:10 pm

    KayJay

    Even I didn’t know Shorten was proposing a Federally funded fleet of firefighting aircraft until after the election (C@t pointed it out to me). Such is our worse than useless media.

    I’ve done the best that I can by saying rude thing about the various useless articles.

    On the other hand we can be right proud of the Federal Minister for Shonky Dealings,

    Big prizes and Elephant Stamps for the first 100 to name the above mentioned minister. 🐘🐘🐘

  12. I knew Shorten had a policy to obtain fire fighting aircraft before the election. But I was probably lucky to find out. It wasn’t broadcast.
    What’s the current situation with water bombers? I know Scummo’s announced it a couple of times but that doesn’t mean much.
    More rough weather in Adelaide hills. Power blackout at the moment, running with generator.

  13. BK @ #232 Sunday, November 15th, 2020 – 5:12 pm

    There is a community outbreak of Covid-19 in SA and it seems to have likely emanated from an overseas hotel quarantine facility.
    Is it not the federal government’s responsibility to protect us from overseas infection?
    Please discuss.

    I’m not surprised. It happened in Victoria and NSW Hotel Quarantine facilities, so it was bound to happen in an overseas facility.

    That it came back to SA/Australia shows negligence all along the chain from that hotel all the way back to Australia/SA.

  14. So now the Wall Street Journal is saying Robert Mercer has his money in Parler.

    Who is Robert Mercer?

    Robert Leroy Mercer (born July 11, 1946)[2] is an American hedge fund manager, former principal investor in the now-defunct Cambridge Analytica,[3] computer scientist who was an early artificial intelligence researcher and developer, and former co-CEO of the hedge fund company Renaissance Technologies.[2][4][5]

    Robert Mercer
    Born
    Robert Leroy Mercer
    July 11, 1946 (age 74)
    San Jose, California, U.S.A
    Mercer played a key role in the campaign for the United Kingdom to leave the European Union by donating data analytics services to Nigel Farage.[6] He is also a major funder of organizations supporting right-wing political causes in the United States, such as Breitbart News,[7] and Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign for president.[8] He is the principal benefactor of the Make America Number 1 super PAC.[9]

    In November 2017, Mercer announced he would step down from Renaissance Technologies and sell his stake in Breitbart News to his daughters.[10]

  15. Cud Chewer

    lizzie

    My opinion is that these “experts” need their heads shoved up their ass.

    It was quite a ?? seeing the questioning of masks as yesterday the headline in NZ re introduction of compulsory mask wearing on planes and public transport from epidemiologists was “What took so long ?”

  16. BK @ #73 Sunday, November 15th, 2020 – 5:14 pm

    I must say I do not like the Older comments/Newer comments “feature”. Was this a result of the hacking?

    I have Poll Bludger currently running on

    Laptop – Firefox

    Desktop – Firefox and Chrome

    Samsung – Firefox and Kiwi

    All using C+

    All look as usual with LOAD MORE” at the bottom of the page.

    Will check what they look like minus C+

    I see it all – Older Comments/Newer Comments show when C+ not active.

    Too complicated for me. I guess William will advise progress in due course.

    Great WBBL today. Wonderful sports people..

    Goodnight from me. 📺💤

  17. BK
    Very disappointing to hear about the outbreak in SA, how it is managed and how far it has already spread will be a test for SA contract tracing. Potentially with all state borders open to SA it could potentially pop up in any or all states in the next fortnight.
    WA has become so complacent that if it gets here we will have massive outbreaks.

  18. Have you got C+ working on a mobile phone KayJay?
    If you have I’d be interested how you got it to work.
    Asking for a friend.

    😉

  19. FWIW
    “Older Comments” and “Newer Comments” only appear for me when I don’t use C+.
    They seem to work as synonyms for “Previous Page” and “Next Page”, respectively.
    On the last page only “Older Comments” appears.
    On earlier pages both appear.
    They appear both at the top and bottom of the list of comments.

    Kudos to ar that C+ works on the updated wordpress.

  20. lizzie
    Thanks for the reply. Morrison made a big issue of getting the aircraft at the time of the fires. Just another announceable then?

  21. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson plans to announce next week a ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2030, five years earlier than previously planned, the Financial Times reported on Saturday.

    Britain had originally planned to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel-powered cars from 2040, as part of efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and in February Johnson brought this forward to 2035.

    Citing unidentified industry and government figures, the FT said Johnson now intended to move the date forward again to 2030 in a speech on environmental policy he is expected to give next week.

    The BBC reported a similar plan earlier on Saturday, without giving any sources.

    A Downing Street spokeswoman declined to comment on the reports or the content of Johnson’s upcoming speech.

    The FT said the new timetable was not expected to apply to some hybrid cars which use a mixture of electric and fossil fuel propulsion and could still be sold until 2035.

  22. Rudy, fresh from Borat and Four Seasons debacles has been promoted…

    ‘Campaign officials described the episode as disastrous, saying it scared off many of the lawyers they spent months recruiting, who now no longer wanted to be involved. With the campaign already facing exceedingly long odds in its recount efforts, there are widespread concerns within Trumpworld and GOP circles that Giuliani’s antics are thwarting the president’s legal machinery from within.

    “I can’t imagine that a rational person” in the general public “wouldn’t be adversely affected by the way he conducts himself,” said Barry Richard, who represented George W. Bush in the 2000 Florida recount.

    Yet Giuliani is taking on a heightened role. The president on Friday appointed him to oversee any new post-election litigation. The move, which was first reported by the New York Times, has distressed top campaign officials and other advisers, who worry Giuliani’s Hail Mary ploys will damage Trump’s reputation and potentially harm his future political aspirations.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/14/giuliani-trump-legal-plans-436475

  23. Aqualung @ #236 Sunday, November 15th, 2020 – 5:48 pm

    Have you got C+ working on a mobile phone KayJay?
    If you have I’d be interested how you got it to work.
    Asking for a friend.

    😉

    Currently C+ is working perfectly on

    Samsung Phone Galaxy S8 Firefox
    and
    Samsung Galaxy Tab A Firefox and Kiwi.

    All are obviously Android devices and C+ simply loads using a new tab. Search for PB comments plugin for Firefox or Chrome for Kiwi.

    My friend Muriel might be interested in your friend please send his/her bank details.

    Toodles.

  24. The Politico article on Dotard’s failing legal strategy is worth a read..

    ‘Things came to a head during a meeting at the White House last Friday, one day before the Four Seasons Total Landscaping imbroglio. As the group batted around options before the president, Giuliani interjected and derided them as insufficiently aggressive. Some in the room were taken aback.

    During a Thursday meeting at the White House that was attended by the president, Giuliani accused Trump aides of lying to Trump about his chances. Clark aggressively pushed back, and the two shouted at one another. Vice President Mike Pence was also present. The encounter was first reported by the Times.

    Neither Giuliani nor a spokesperson responded to requests for comment. Trump campaign senior adviser Jason Miller said, “Everybody on the team is getting along great.”

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/14/giuliani-trump-legal-plans-436475

  25. C@tMomma:

    BK @ #232 Sunday, November 15th, 2020 – 5:12 pm

    There is a community outbreak of Covid-19 in SA and it seems to have likely emanated from an overseas hotel quarantine facility.
    Is it not the federal government’s responsibility to protect us from overseas infection?
    Please discuss.

    I’m not surprised. It happened in Victoria and NSW Hotel Quarantine facilities, so it was bound to happen in an overseas facility.

    That it came back to SA/Australia shows negligence all along the chain from that hotel all the way back to Australia/SA.

    Huh?

    Three local infected people, currently one classed as mystery case

    All three are part of same “very large” family.

    One of the three worked at a medi-hotel in SA, and it is believed (but not confirmed) that this person is the vector into the community.

    Four other members of the “very large” family are symptomatic, but test results not yet available (one of the three positive tests was on Saturday, two early Sunday))
    The three infected people people visited shopping centres Thursday and Friday whilst infectious and something over a hundred people are hence in quarantine.

  26. Poroti:

    There have been four new cases of COVID-19 today.
    One is a man in his 30s who has recently returned from overseas and has been in a medi-hotel since his arrival.
    Another case is a woman in her 80s who tested positive at the Lyell McEwin Hospital Emergency Department on 14 November 2020. The woman is in hospital in a stable condition. While contact tracing is still underway, two family members of the woman in her 80s have also tested positive.
    Of these two cases – a woman in her 50s and a man is his 60s, who are both quarantining in a medi-hotel – one works in a medi-hotel. We are working to confirm this is the cause of initial transmission.

  27. Cud Chewer @ #210 Sunday, November 15th, 2020 – 2:10 pm

    KayJay

    Even I didn’t know Shorten was proposing a Federally funded fleet of firefighting aircraft until after the election (C@t pointed it out to me). Such is our worse than useless media.

    It was highlighted again during the bushfires when the shortage of aircraft and the Government’s lack of planning and response to this need became apparent.

  28. Are they seriously considering trying this on!?!

    Trump advisers have begun looking at the possibility of pushing Republican-controlled state legislatures to put forward a slate of Trump electors to the Electoral College rather than Biden ones.

  29. Huh?

    Thank you for the clarification but I made my comment based on this:

    …it seems to have likely emanated from an overseas hotel quarantine facility.

    True or not?

  30. C@tmomma @ #247 Sunday, November 15th, 2020 – 6:25 pm

    Are they seriously considering trying this on!?!

    Trump advisers have begun looking at the possibility of pushing Republican-controlled state legislatures to put forward a slate of Trump electors to the Electoral College rather than Biden ones.

    From what I have read, this was always going to be the plan, and could very well succeed (at least according to some pundits, while others think not).

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