Essential Research: state leaders and federal ICAC

Yet more evidence of strong support for struggling state leaders, along with overwhelming backing for a federal ICAC.

For your US election needs, there is a newly launched post on which Adrian Beaumont will be offering live coverage. For some Australian perspective on the matter, the Australia Institute has a poll showing Australians preferring Joe Biden over Donald Trump by 52% to 24%, which is actually narrower than I might have figuered, but the lead extends to supporters of the Coalition (45% to 33%) as well as Labor (64% to 15%). For those of you with a lingering interest in the late count in Queensland, I am continuing to regular-ish updates on the close seats (Bundaberg, Nicklin and Currumbin) to the relevant post.

Then there’s the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1063, which features leadership ratings for Premiers in the four largest states based on small-sample breakdowns. Out of 345 respondents from New South Wales, 68% approved of Gladys Berejiklian with 21% disapproving, both results being up one on a fortnight ago; Daniel Andrews is up seven on approval to 61% and down seven on disapproval to 33%, out of a sample of 275 Victorians; Annastacia Palaszczuk is up three to 65% and down four to 24%; and reaching deep into low-sample, high error margin territory, Mark McGowan records 78% approval (down six) and 12% disapproval (up five) from 105 Western Australians.

The newly liberated Victorian sample also registered a 55% positive rating for the government’s handling of COVID-19, up ten on a month ago, while the New South Wales government was up three to 68% and Queensland’s was steady on 69%. On the stronger methodological ground of the full national sample, the federal government’s performance was rated good by 61% (up one) and poor by 15% (down three). The poll also found 81% support for “the establishment of an independent federal corruption body to monitor the behaviour of our politicians and public servants”, with only 6% opposition

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

299 comments on “Essential Research: state leaders and federal ICAC”

Comments Page 3 of 6
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  3. If these were one of the ones Scrott/Ghunt were crowing about we may have quite a wait.
    .
    Data from the final trials of two Covid vaccines from Pfizer and Oxford University could be available “within weeks” but there will be only four million doses of the Oxford jab by the end of the year, MPs were told yesterday..
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-vaccines-set-to-be-ready-by-christmas-but-only-4m-will-be-available-d00kkv780

  4. We need more of these. Was there an anti-Dutton group at one stage?

    Ewart Dave
    @davidbewart
    ·
    1m
    two Facebook groups, one called “Hughes Deserves Better” the other “Craig Kelly must go!”. They have joined forces, held meetings and started getting organised, just like the anti-Abbott mob did at about this point of the electoral cycle. “

  8. Read that Sally Capp looks like being re-elected mayor of Melbourne and while that might not be of much interest except her main rival’s whole campaign was based on ending the restrictions and being critical of Dan.

  9. Mexicanbeemer

    Local rivals can jump up and down but people are every day seeing and hearing about the covid carnage overseas. A quick ‘compare and contrast’ to their own situation ‘here’ compared to ‘there’ makes for a strong urge to ‘keep what we got now’.

  10. Morrisons is deliberately spreading false hope because he is seeing what he wants to see.

    Dr Rhonda Garad
    @elyasgarad
    ·
    1h
    #COVID reality check –
    Jane Halton, Chair of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovation

    Vaccine won’t be available quickly.

    “Let’s not kid ourselves – we are going to keep up this marathon all the way through this [next] year.”

  11. Michelangelo Signorile
    @MSignorile

    In Arizona the Trumpers are outside the processing center chanting, “Count those votes!”

    In Georgia the Trumpers were chanting, “Stop the count!”

    You can’t make this up.

  13. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Waleed Aly describes Trump as a post-truth man for a post-truth world.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-a-post-truth-man-for-a-post-truth-world-20201105-p56brp.html
    Michael Pascoe warns us not to get too complacent about the US disastrous type of politics not happening here.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2020/11/06/michael-pascoe-american-politics-australia/
    Gladys Berejiklian says a $250 million jobs program is her answer to the “frustrated” call of businesses from Queensland and Victoria, unhappy with their own governments.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-to-lure-frustrated-interstate-businesses-with-tax-cuts-20201105-p56bxd.html
    David Crowe writes that Australian political leaders have declared their confidence in a fair election outcome in the United States in a bipartisan message that countered former treasurer Joe Hockey’s claim of “fraud” in the count.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/call-for-patience-as-labor-blasts-hockey-over-fraud-claim-20201105-p56by2.html
    Mike Foley tells us that former Obama administration foreign policy experts say the tight election result would slow Mr Biden’s climate reform agenda, which they say could nevertheless enable the US to rebuild its tense relationship with China.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/biden-s-ambitious-climate-plans-face-big-challenges-experts-say-20201105-p56bui.html
    A former Liberal Party candidate with suspected links to Beijing’s overseas influence arm has become the first person charged under Australia’s landmark foreign interference laws.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/melbourne-man-first-person-charged-under-australia-s-foreign-interference-laws-20201105-p56bxv.html
    Daniel McCulloch reports that Peter Dutton claims murder and child exploitation is going unnoticed because Queensland police are manning roadblocks at the state border.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7000272/dutton-links-qld-borders-to-murders-abuse/?cs=14350
    Environment Minister Sussan Ley is defending her approval of a project set to increase the destruction of critical koala habitat, writes Sue Arnold.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/sussan-leys-approval-of-quarry-development-set-to-destroy-koala-habitat,14483
    The head of one of the security firms that supplied guards to Victoria’s failed hotel quarantine program says police or army guards would have suffered the same fate.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/unified-security-boss-says-not-its-fault-virus-escaped-hotel-quarantine-20201105-p56bua.html
    With the swathe of recent elections, perhaps it’s time to reconsider the absurd nature of the Oaths of Allegiance members of parliament must make before they can take their seats, writes Glenn Davies.
    https://independentaustralia.net/australia/australia-display/queensland–its-time-to-stop-swearing-at-the-queen,14484
    Michelle Grattan says that a Biden presidency would put pressure on Scott Morrison over climate change.
    https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-a-biden-presidency-would-put-pressure-on-scott-morrison-over-climate-change-149548
    Cashless debit cards for welfare recipients are not worth the human cost, senators have been told.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6999408/welfare-cards-not-worth-the-human-cost/?cs=14350
    Victoria will be home to the largest battery in the southern hemisphere as part of a State Government push to transition to renewable energy, writes Bridget Rollason.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/state/vic/2020/11/05/vicxtoria-tesla-battery/
    In Victoria, its anti-corruption commission will call a Labor-linked lobbyist who worked for allegedly corrupt property developer John Woodman and ask him about his dealings with politicians.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/premier-faces-fresh-questions-over-casey-land-deal-as-ibac-hearings-resume-20201105-p56buk.html
    The Australian boss of Johnson & Johnson’s pharmaceuticals business and vaccine experts have warned of the difficult process ahead to distribute a COVID-19 vaccine. Emma Kroen goes into detail.
    https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/australians-should-expect-a-marathon-on-vaccine-distribution-experts-warn-20201105-p56bof.html
    The AFR tells us how James Packer has received both a pasting and a lifeline.
    https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/james-packer-gets-a-pasting-and-a-lifeline-20201105-p56bwh
    But Stephen Mayne says Crown must expunge the toxic influence of James Packer.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2020/11/05/crown-james-packer-unfit-mayne/
    According to David Crowe and Nick Bonyhady, a national split in the peak construction and mining union is set to deepen today as a division chief at the powerful CFMEU rejects a bid to name a new leader.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/divide-deepens-at-cfmmeu-union-after-leader-steps-down-20201105-p56bxq.html
    James Adonins looks at what it is about franchise businesses in particular that makes them especially vulnerable to poor employee management.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/why-franchises-struggle-with-employees-20201105-p56bto.html
    The editorial in the AFR says that Joe Biden’s huge task will be to begin carving out a new centre in American politics, pulling away from both Trumpism and the radicalism of his party’s left.
    https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/president-biden-s-challenge-is-to-carve-out-a-new-centre-in-a-deeply-polarised-america-20201104-p56bln
    David Crowe explains how the splintering of the US electorate is deep and dangerous.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/splintering-of-us-electorate-is-deep-and-dangerous-20201105-p56bvl.html
    Sleepy Joe Biden might offer respite from four years of turmoil. But the close election result confirms that the populist movement that produced President Donald Trump is now firmly entrenched, writes Phil Coorey.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/maybe-what-the-world-needs-now-is-four-years-of-boring-20201104-p56bk6
    As Trump threatens democratic systems, the US needs allies like Australia to speak up, writes Kim Hoggard, a member of the Reagan and Bush administrations.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/05/as-trump-threatens-democratic-systems-the-us-needs-allies-like-australia-to-speak-up
    Social bias against unpopular causes and low response rates are making political polls unreliable and raising questions about their ability to accurately predict election results, according to an academic expert, posits the AFR’s Tom Burton.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/the-two-reasons-us-pollsters-got-it-so-wrong-20201105-p56buv
    Trump has not been repudiated and a Biden presidency would face obstruction at every level writes Adam Tooze.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/05/biden-presidency-face-obstruction-election
    The Republican party has been playing dirty electoral politics for decades. The Democrats are just not on the same playing field explains the Lowy Institute’s Samuel Hendricks who says that from Australia, it’s hard to comprehend the depredations on display at the US election
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/05/from-australia-its-hard-to-comprehend-the-depredations-on-display-at-the-us-election
    Even if Biden has a likely win, leading a deeply divided nation will be difficult, writes Dennis Altman.
    https://theconversation.com/even-if-biden-has-a-likely-win-leading-a-deeply-divided-nation-will-be-difficult-148185
    While US Republican politicians and conservative commentators were quick to condemn President Trump, not so Australian conservatives, despite their professed love for freedom. Bernard Keane reports.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/coalition-conservatives-duck-for-cover-on-calls-for-us-democracy/
    The editorial in the Canberra Times says that while President Trump’s perverse decision to call the result of the election prematurely was to be expected given his by now famously predictable unpredictably, it was short sighted, rash, and potentially very dangerous.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7000573/a-bonfire-of-temper-at-us-elections-end/?cs=14258
    The AFR’s Joe Aston says that the Washington apparatus will hang on early signals from the Biden-Harris transition team that the administration will lean in a moderate or progressive direction.
    https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/washington-hangs-on-early-signals-in-biden-s-cabinet-picks-20201105-p56bvu
    The US President’s narrative as an electoral fraud victim was a calculated move – and will cause weeks of havoc. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard wonders if the markets understand the gravity of what is unfolding.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/fetch-your-tin-helmet-trump-has-set-in-motion-a-fateful-chain-of-events-20201105-p56bon.html
    A former youth pastor and high school teacher at a Christian college in Melbourne’s eastern suburbs who has been charged with four counts of sexual penetration of a female student also faces corroborating evidence of fresh allegations of rape and sexual assault involving another student. Clearly a nominee for “Arsehole of the Week”.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/christian-college-teacher-allegedly-had-sex-with-student-in-school-library-20201104-p56bib.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    Peter Broelman

    Cathy Wilcox

    Andrew Dyson

    Matt Golding





    Mark David

    Glen Le Lievre

    Johannes Leak

    Mark Knight

    Alan Moir

    From the US











  14. Eddy Jokovich
    @EddyJokovich
    ·
    1m
    Hockey was preselected for North Sydney when Ted Mack was the independent member, because Libs knew he wouldn’t win against Mack. But nobody knew Mack was going to resign, so Hockey became an accidental MP.

    That was only one mistake. They then made him Treasurer and later Ambassador. What judgement!

  16. This is a good distillation of that Dutton story today:

    Prince Fed up
    @somuchbullsh
    ·
    39m
    Dutton has the same disease that Hockey has. Reflex dog whistling.
    Got so used to it with Howard and Ruddock, Abbott and now Morrison, it’s just habitual for them.
    Who needs evidence? Make it up. It just needs to stick.

  17. This is Morrison too:

    Hairball Squared sosWater wave I don’t wanna live in trumpfckistan
    @orangepeel18

    Paula White(Trump’s ‘Spiritual Adviser’) is a dominionist, not a Christian. There’s nothing remotely Christian about dominionism. It’s a terrifying hybrid of Taliban-like authoritarian religion and the prosperity gospel. It’s a diabolical cult. Total power is their objective.

  19. Gabrielle Chan
    @gabriellechan
    ·
    1m
    On the conduct of our representatives in Canberra by
    @Milliganreports
    via
    @4corners
    Better be sitting down down for this one I reckon.

  20. Palmer lost the high court challenge

    Morrison did a turnbull, claiming the high court would uphold Palmer’s court case to open the borders

  22. Taking a break from the Trump/Biden battle…Brexit News

    Northern Ireland customs controls will isolate it from the rest of Britain while Johnson has his hands full with other matters.

    …the Northern Ireland protocol kicks in at 11pm on 31 December. Under the deal struck by the prime minister, Boris Johnson, fresh food coming into the region from Great Britain will be subjected to checks including customs declarations, and health certification protecting the island of Ireland from outbreaks of infections such as salmonella.
    …Dominic Goudie, the head of international trade at the UK’s Food and Drink Federation, said: “Producers are now preparing for this worst-case scenario and many are planning to stop supplying the Northern Ireland market after 1 January 2021,

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/nov/05/brexit-may-reduce-food-to-northern-ireland-sainsburys-supermarkets

    “A Different Bias” makes the point that any Brexit deal between the UK and the EU now hinges on the UK first responding to a letter from the EU in which they ask that the UK confirms that it will not simply “tear up the deal” at a later date. This seems like a pretty strange thing to request at the 11th hour. But it stems from the fact that the UK and the EU signed a treaty a year ago and that the UK just recently announced they would “tear it up”, admitting that to do so breaks international law. The EU want a reassurance that the UK won’t actually do this. The UK have now missed the deadline to respond, effectively stalling negotiations. There are about 2 weeks left to conclude Brexit negotiations in time to avert a no-deal Brexit. (The agreement needs to be translated into the languages of the 27 member nations and then voted into law in those nations.)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U3U3ounGlck

  23. Late Riser

    What a complete mess the Tories have made of the UK. It’s hard to watch such a complete disaster unfolding at a snail’s pace.

  24. #breaking the High Court has rejected Clive Palmer’s challenge against WA’s border ban. Both the directions and emergency laws are valid. Palmer to pay costs. #auspol #auslaw

    Excellent, a Palmer loss in court is almost as enjoyable as an Alan Jones loss in court!

  26. The Age
    @theage
    ·
    2m
    Premier @DanielAndrewsMP says Victoria will officially be part of the New Zealand travel bubble, with direct flights arriving in Melbourne as of Monday. Follow our coverage live.

  27. I predicted last night to my son that Biden will win Georgia and the Presidency. I stick by that now.
    Oh, and looking at some of the exit poll data from various states, black men and non-white men have not voted in the majority for Trump.

    That honour resides with white, rural, low education level males followed by the white rural low education females.

  28. I am not on the ball with my posts, mistakes etc, because my daughter in Dubai is recovering from Covid19. Have to be cheery to her while worried as hell as a mother.

  29. This article points out more looming Brexit problems. No surprises there. And while also not a surprise, the response from the UK government to questions about these particular looming difficulties is worth highlighting. It boils down to, “We’re spending a lot of money and doing it slowly so everyone can get ready.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/nov/06/uk-eu-trade-faces-major-disruption-even-with-deal-say-auditors

    Something else that struck me while reading the article was the idea that Northern Ireland may come to be seen by the rest of Britain as not worth the bother.

  30. A logjam on Brexit news seems to have broken this morning.

    European diplomats have been told that there are still “fundamental differences” in the hunt for a Brexit trade deal and that the UK has “blocked” progress in key areas while trying to run down the clock.

    British sources have accused Mr Barnier of using exactly the same tactic, of running down the clock in order to force through a deal.

    https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-trade-deal-michel-barnier-says-uk-blocked-progress-in-key-areas-12124387

    So the one (maybe only) thing they firmly agree on is that time is running out.

  31. The High Court has thrown out a challenge to Victoria’s COVID-19 lockdown from a Mornington Peninsula hotelier.

    Lawyers for Julian Gerner argued the restrictions breached an implied constitutional right to freedom of movement, but a short time ago the High Court said it accepted the Victorian Government’s arguments there was no foothold in the Constitution for such an implied right.

    In written submissions, lawyers for the State Government urged the court to abandon the case, saying that with Victoria set to announce a further easing of restrictions on Sunday, there was no longer any point to the case.

    But Mr Gerner’s legal team disagreed, telling the court the case would determine whether the State Government could impose another lockdown in the future.

    This morning in a separate decision, the High Court dismissed Clive Palmer’s challenge to Western Australia’s coronavirus border closure and ordered the billionaire miner to pay costs.

  32. LR,

    One thing you wonder is how the Ireland/ NI border is holding. Certainly there is a huge difference in the volume of Covid cases between the 2 since Ireland re-entered lockdown.

  33. Alpha Zero @ #132 Friday, November 6th, 2020 – 1:11 pm

    LR,

    One thing you wonder is how the Ireland/ NI border is holding. Certainly there is a huge difference in the volume of Covid cases between the 2 since Ireland re-entered lockdown.

    Hmm. I’ve not been following it. Given how bad the UK is as a whole I presume that on the UK side of the border the incidence of covid is higher? If so, and if the RI/NI covid mood is similar to the Qld/NSW covid mood it’s got to add tension to an already nervous situation.

  34. LR,
    11,000 Covid cases in NI in the past fortnight compared to about 3,000 for Ireland (and falling). The travel advice is to avoid the border crossing.

    NI due to come out of restrictions in about a week…

  36. lizzie @ #62 Friday, November 6th, 2020 – 11:40 am

    The Age
    @theage
    ·
    2m
    Premier @DanielAndrewsMP says Victoria will officially be part of the New Zealand travel bubble, with direct flights arriving in Melbourne as of Monday. Follow our coverage live.

    I swear the Liberal Party (coz that’s who it is behind all these cases, tangentially or otherwise), launch these cases to great public fanfare, in the full knowledge they will more likely than not, fail, but do it anyway just for the publicity on the day and to attempt to put a spoke in the wheel of a Labor leader.

  37. The Age
    @theage
    ·
    2m
    Premier @DanielAndrewsMP says Victoria will officially be part of the New Zealand travel bubble, with direct flights arriving in Melbourne as of Monday. Follow our coverage live.

    A veeeery one way bubble 😆 . All travelers to NZ need a voucher for a place in quarantine. No voucher no getting on the plane. Currently the quarantine spots are booked out well in to December.

  38. Doug Cameron
    @DougCameron51

    What happened to the lauded China Aus “Free Trade” Agreement?
    Not worth the paper it’s written on!
    We were promised jobs, wage growth increased exports and prosperity.
    We became a farm, quarry and tourist destination while decimating manufacturing. FFS!

    While China buys Australia bit by bit.

  40. Rick Morton
    @SquigglyRick
    ·
    49m
    We know billionaire Andrew “Twiggy” Forrest essentially created the cashless debit card rollout. But evidence before senate review of a bill to make it permanent reveals he is still in control of policy. The working group with major banks was all him.

    Who’s he bribing? Far too much influence.

  41. I have been away ill for some time (heart) so forgive me if you are aware of the following addon for chrome or Firefox from Github you will have to sign in to github. Bit og a fiddle to get it but it is worth it.
    Bypass Paywalls 1.7.7 works majic on all international sites
    https://github.com/join

  42. I know it’s unworthy, so please forgive me if I have a tiny gloat. Just a minute or two.

    Victoria records week of zero COVID cases as NSW closes school

  43. Whisper @ #141 Friday, November 6th, 2020 – 3:58 pm

    I have been away ill for some time (heart) so forgive me if you are aware of the following addon for chrome or Firefox from Github you will have to sign in to github. Bit og a fiddle to get it but it is worth it.
    Bypass Paywalls 1.7.7 works majic on all international sites
    https://github.com/join

    It’s not necessary to sign in. Simply download and install. Firefox is a simple install, Chrome a bit of a fiddle, as you say.

    Best wishes regarding your medical (and any other) problems.😇

  46. Boris Johnson says UK lockdown won’t last more than 4 weeks. Hmm.

    PeterBax – Make lying wrong again –
    @BaxterPeterba

    Hello denial, my old friend
    I’ve come to walk with you again
    Because a virus softly creeping
    Left its seeds while I was sleeping
    And the illness that was planted in my brain
    Still remains
    Within the sound of silence…

  50. Anyone else tired of Stan Grant appearing everywhere? Here’s a little more about him.

    Two senior correspondents at Australia’s national broadcaster have links to defence industries and the defence establishment which have possibly compromised their impartiality.

    The non-disclosure of outside associations between ABC presenters and people they interview is a breach of the ABC Charter and its Editorial Policies.

    International Affairs Analyst, Stan Grant has conducted interviews with researchers from ASPI (Australian Strategic Policy Institute) without disclosing on-air his position as a Senior Fellow with ASPI.
    …
    In September the ABC launched a new weekly program called Behind the Wall. Hosted by Stan Grant it informs viewers about “China and its complex relationships with Australia and the rest of the world”.

    The debut guest was Nathan Ruser, a 22-year-old “China expert” who doesn’t speak Chinese, has never been to China and there is no evidence he graduated from ANU where he was undertaking a course Middle-Eastern studies.

    Ruser is, however, a researcher at ASPI. At the time of that interview Grant was listed on the ASPI website as a Senior Fellow. ABC’s conflict of interest policy suggests he should have disclosed he was interviewing someone from an organisation to which he is associated.

    An Australian researcher who has seen the interview says Ruser relied on “a considerable number of unverifiable facts.” Adding, “It seems odd a twenty-something analyst with no background in strategic studies would front a major research project for a leading think-tank. That is the question I would be asking.”

    https://johnmenadue.com/aspis-broadcasting-corporation/

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