Essential Research: state leaders and federal ICAC

Yet more evidence of strong support for struggling state leaders, along with overwhelming backing for a federal ICAC.

For your US election needs, there is a newly launched post on which Adrian Beaumont will be offering live coverage. For some Australian perspective on the matter, the Australia Institute has a poll showing Australians preferring Joe Biden over Donald Trump by 52% to 24%, which is actually narrower than I might have figuered, but the lead extends to supporters of the Coalition (45% to 33%) as well as Labor (64% to 15%). For those of you with a lingering interest in the late count in Queensland, I am continuing to regular-ish updates on the close seats (Bundaberg, Nicklin and Currumbin) to the relevant post.

Then there’s the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1063, which features leadership ratings for Premiers in the four largest states based on small-sample breakdowns. Out of 345 respondents from New South Wales, 68% approved of Gladys Berejiklian with 21% disapproving, both results being up one on a fortnight ago; Daniel Andrews is up seven on approval to 61% and down seven on disapproval to 33%, out of a sample of 275 Victorians; Annastacia Palaszczuk is up three to 65% and down four to 24%; and reaching deep into low-sample, high error margin territory, Mark McGowan records 78% approval (down six) and 12% disapproval (up five) from 105 Western Australians.

The newly liberated Victorian sample also registered a 55% positive rating for the government’s handling of COVID-19, up ten on a month ago, while the New South Wales government was up three to 68% and Queensland’s was steady on 69%. On the stronger methodological ground of the full national sample, the federal government’s performance was rated good by 61% (up one) and poor by 15% (down three). The poll also found 81% support for “the establishment of an independent federal corruption body to monitor the behaviour of our politicians and public servants”, with only 6% opposition

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

299 comments on “Essential Research: state leaders and federal ICAC”

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  2. Michigan is saving the USA.

    Stopping the count gives Biden his 270 and is above the 1% required for a recount. So cannot be challenged.

    Trump is expected to do another presser any minute.

  5. London: Denmark will cull 17 million mink over fears the ferret-like animals are passing on a mutated strain of coronavirus to humans.

    Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announced the drastic move on Wednesday as the death toll from Europe’s second wave climbed sharply in some hard-hit countries.

    Frederiksen – who is self-isolating after a close contact recently tested positive – said authorities had detected virus strains in humans and mink which showed decreased sensitivity against antibodies….
    Health Minister Magnus Heunicke said around half of 783 infected Danes in northern Denmark, home to a large number of mink farms, had been infected with a virus strain stemming from the farms.

    Heunicke said the mutated virus had been detected in 12 humans and on five mink farms.

    Thee are between 15 million and 17 million mink in Denmark – the world’s largest producer of mink fur. They are bred on nearly 1200 farms. The government has promised compensation to farmers.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/denmark-to-kill-17-million-mink-linked-to-possible-covid-19-mutation-20201105-p56bn6.html

  11. Close to being all over in the US. This has to have been one of the most stressful elections I’ve ever followed, but looking like the good guys will win in the end.

  13. Gladys looked really embattled yesterday, in fact she looked like a wreck. Did anyone else see her sad rant against QLD etc…..dont think AP is going to be too troubled by anything Gladys has to say these days.
    Gladys is reaping the rewards of being used as Morrison’s attack dog.

  19. Look, a clean quick Biden victory would have been great, but watching the like s of Eric Trump and Rudy making complete fucking arses of themselves as the two of them just did is better. The longer the Trumps squirm and squeal the more more there is to enjoy……as long as they don’t prevail……Biden now on 264….

  20. Torchbearer:

    LMAO, as if Palazszcuk would give a single fuck what Gladys has to say after this weekend’s events. She pretty much has a legitimate mandate to completely ignore NSW.

  21. BK:

    What the hell happened to Guiliani? He was always a right-wing prick, but he used to be a clever and sane right-wing prick. The man needs to be in full-time care, not embarrassing himself daily on national television.

  22. Q: LMAO, as if Palazszcuk would give a single fuck what Gladys has to say…ergo my point, Gladys looks completely shattered these days.

  23. AL

    With the end of fascism looming in the US that will happen.

    The best part of Trump losing is he loses Presidential immunity.
    With the unraveling to come the Republicans winning control of the senate won’t save them.

  26. mundo @ #69 Thursday, November 5th, 2020 – 8:55 am

    Look, a clean quick Biden victory would have been great, but watching the like s of Eric Trump and Rudy making complete fucking arses of themselves as the two of them just did is better. The longer the Trumps squirm and squeal the more more there is to enjoy……as long as they don’t prevail……Biden now on 264….

    Look how the worm has turned.

  27. Asha Leu @ #61 Thursday, November 5th, 2020 – 5:36 am

    Close to being all over in the US. This has to have been one of the most stressful elections I’ve ever followed, but looking like the good guys will win in the end.

    I’ve actually really enjoyed this year’s election. In 2016 I felt dejected, despondent and quite frankly, depressed. This year it’s all played out how I anticipated, except for the Senate and the House which I expected Democrats would do better.

    But I’m taking the Biden/Harris victory because it means the end of President Crazy Pants. It’s going to take a little while longer because (again, as anticipated), Trump is launching a barrage of legal action. But Biden will be No. 46.

  28. Thanks BK for today’s Dawn Patrol.

    *******************************************************

    Blackout locally a couple of hours 4 to 6 P.M.

    Just checking fridge and resetting computer when another power outage. Confined to about 100 homes. Several crews on the job quite quickly repairing a problem 50 metres from my hacienda. Outage described as a complex problem. Power back on about 10 P.M.

    I was able to follow Poll Bludger with my phone.

    Overcast day Newcastle. Maybe 20℃ – Probably rain all day. Good day for doing not much. 😇

  30. John Legend has created a claim things you are not entitled to hashtag on Twitter. Twitter meanwhile has put the false misleading etc warning on Trumps victory in Michigan claim.

  31. A little detour on the way.

    Mining company Adani has re-branded it’s Australian operations ‘Bravus’.

    Dr Nikola Casule, Head of Research and Investigations at Greenpeace Australia Pacific isn’t impressed:

    The Latin for ‘brave’ isn’t ‘bravus’.

    The word Adani is looking for is ‘fortis’, which English ‘fortitude’ is derived from.

    ‘Bravus’ is a ‘vulgar’ (medieval) Latin version based on the Latin ‘barbarus’, meaning barbarian.

    Bravus was eventually adopted as an English word, via Middle French to become our word ‘brave’, but the word itself had much of a connotation of a violent enemy of civilisation.

    A word with its roots in “barbarian” is fitting for a company whose proposed Carmichael mega mine would accelerate the global warming crisis that threatens our own, human civilisation’s life on planet earth.”

  32. There really does need to be a long hard look at polling. Sure, 538 said Trump had a 10% chance of winning but he almost did again! I don’t think it was supposed to be this close according to the modelling yet somehow there were swathes of Trump voters that the polls failed again to pick up.

  34. Accepting this as OK because it’s for bushfire, flood, cyclone etc, might be the trojan horse for other uses. I’m not comfortable with this.

  35. Brendan Murphy, now being promoted as aa potential for Australian of the Year, gets to announce another contract (?) for vaccines, even though he is neither CHO nor Health Minister.

    Scotty is so blatant.

  36. A lesson from the US election that applies to Australia.

    In Florida a referendum got the minimum wage up while people voted for Trump. So instead of identifying all the voters by the extremes appeal to the self interest.

    That way you don’t insult the voters that do support equality on the basis of race sexuality etc.
    don’t voter shame.

    Part of this is realising that “identity politics” is the rights way to shut up people fighting for equality like with terms of “political correctness”.
    This includes saying an argument is racist or homophobic is not a personal attack on a person. It’s attacking the argument.

    For progressive political parties they have to confront this propaganda from the right that you cannot argue for rights for people because it’s “identity politics”.

    That means you can’t argue for the rights of workers because it’s “identity politics”. That is what Bernie Sanders got right in his political campaign that would have won Texas Latino voters that arguing for refugees gun rights and LGBTI rights failed to win Latino voters in Texas.

    Very like Western Sydney. Biden did at least have the sense to declare the era of coal is over and campaign on job creating renewables. A victorious narrative in the rust belt states.

    Edit: oh and being for drug law reform would have been a big winner as referendums have ended the war on drugs.

  39. “With the arrangement with AstraZeneca … that process begins next week, but the vaccines will be become available over the course of next year, starting in quarter one,” Mr Morrison said.

    OTOH. Remember how often new drugs have been held up for months by TGA?

    Access to the vaccines is subject to clinical trial outcomes on the safety and effectiveness of each candidate, and approval by the Therapeutic Goods Administration.

  40. It’s a great day for progressives in Australia

    Sky News is being unhinged backing Trump in more strong terms than Fox News. Rudd’s petition has exceeded 500 000

    Morrison looked a weak and pathetic appeaser over Trump while Labor and the Greens have been strong supporters of democracy.
    Long term things are going very badly for the right.

  41. Did anyone care to point out to Scotty from Marketing the vaccine that it only lasts about 3 months and regular boosters will be required to mainatin immunty? Who wants to do that?

  42. Trump likely to be a one termer

    This may be the reason why Morrison is trying to take the credit for the borders closed, despite Morrison and the corrupt foreign owned libs/nats propaganda media units calling for the borders to be open for economy reasons not for health reasons.

    It seems that health reasons are going to trump economical reasons in elections

    Will Australians be gullible again in falling for Morrison and the corrupt foreign owned libs/nats propaganda media units in the upcoming federal election

  45. High Court of Australia @HighCourtofAus

    Orders will be pronounced in Palmer & Anor v. The State of Western Australia & Anor on Friday, 6 November 2020 at 9.45 am

  46. Gaven Morris
    @gavmorris
    This is exciting! First ever win for the small, incredibly talented @BreakfastNews team.
    @abcnews

    Brekky TV for Wed 04/11/20

    @sunriseon7 264k
    @TheTodayShow 212k
    @BreakfastNews 273k

    No doubt Speers will get some credit for this. I think it’s the weatherman and his tight pants.

  48. [High Court of Australia @HighCourtofAus

    Orders will be pronounced in Palmer & Anor v. The State of Western Australia & Anor on Friday, 6 November 2020 at 9.45 am]

    From reading yesterday’s transcript where it appeared the Court was just seeking clarification of the various arguments being put on behalf of the states and territories rather than interrogating the arguments, he will come 2nd.

  49. Shellbell @ #98 Thursday, November 5th, 2020 – 8:53 am

    [High Court of Australia @HighCourtofAus

    Orders will be pronounced in Palmer & Anor v. The State of Western Australia & Anor on Friday, 6 November 2020 at 9.45 am]

    From reading yesterday’s transcript where it appeared the Court was just seeking clarification of the various arguments being put on behalf of the states and territories rather than interrogating the arguments, he will come 2nd.

    Despite all the claims on their time, the real* Integrity Commission’s first case must be a thorough investigation on anything and everything involving Clive Palmer.

    *As opposed to the Coverup Commission recently introduced by AG Antichristian Porter.

  50. RonniSalt
    @RonniSalt
    ·
    13m
    I’ve a friend in Joe Hockey’s old electorate whose husband worked with Hockey & knew him on the social circle.

    When Hockey was pre-selected, BFHusband said very loudly down the phone:

    “I can not believe anyone would pick him. How? As dumb as dog shit but not nearly as solid.”

    And this…

    Michael Pascoe
    @MichaelPascoe01
    ·
    12m
    Is Joe’s Washington lobbying business worth more with a Trump or Biden presidency?

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