Essential Research: state leaders and federal ICAC

Yet more evidence of strong support for struggling state leaders, along with overwhelming backing for a federal ICAC.

For your US election needs, there is a newly launched post on which Adrian Beaumont will be offering live coverage. For some Australian perspective on the matter, the Australia Institute has a poll showing Australians preferring Joe Biden over Donald Trump by 52% to 24%, which is actually narrower than I might have figuered, but the lead extends to supporters of the Coalition (45% to 33%) as well as Labor (64% to 15%). For those of you with a lingering interest in the late count in Queensland, I am continuing to regular-ish updates on the close seats (Bundaberg, Nicklin and Currumbin) to the relevant post.

Then there’s the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1063, which features leadership ratings for Premiers in the four largest states based on small-sample breakdowns. Out of 345 respondents from New South Wales, 68% approved of Gladys Berejiklian with 21% disapproving, both results being up one on a fortnight ago; Daniel Andrews is up seven on approval to 61% and down seven on disapproval to 33%, out of a sample of 275 Victorians; Annastacia Palaszczuk is up three to 65% and down four to 24%; and reaching deep into low-sample, high error margin territory, Mark McGowan records 78% approval (down six) and 12% disapproval (up five) from 105 Western Australians.

The newly liberated Victorian sample also registered a 55% positive rating for the government’s handling of COVID-19, up ten on a month ago, while the New South Wales government was up three to 68% and Queensland’s was steady on 69%. On the stronger methodological ground of the full national sample, the federal government’s performance was rated good by 61% (up one) and poor by 15% (down three). The poll also found 81% support for “the establishment of an independent federal corruption body to monitor the behaviour of our politicians and public servants”, with only 6% opposition

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

299 comments on “Essential Research: state leaders and federal ICAC”

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  1. A Federal anti-corruption led economic recovery perhaps? Nah, we’d have to go into lockdown again. Politicians and big business have an existing herd immunity to anti-corruption so it probably won’t happen.

  2. BK, et al (special shout out to C@tmomma whom I see is here this morning)

    It is a long time since I touched base here – I think March as the first Covid wave was starting. So like a lot of people I have had a fairly crazy year but I’ve got through it so far (with multiple negative Covid swabs along the way!)

    Hope everyone is well. At the start of the year I anticipated being in Columbus, Ohio today on US Election Day – but like so many other people’s plans that hasn’t quite happened. I would have liked to have been there but I guess “It is what it is”!

    I believe Joe Biden will have a comfortable win today – with 335 electoral votes. (WI, MI, PA, AZ, FL, NC, NE-2, ME-2). Hoping for bigger but ‘that would be enough’.

    Because of the huge turnout he will actually receive the largest number of votes of any Presidential candidate in history.

    Hope everyone has a good day. And I hope that the most promising Covid vaccines will start rolling out at the end of the year so I can start to get back to a normal life, together with everyone else through the world.

    And have time and space to get back here more often!

  3. More than 80% of workers want to continue working from home in some capacity, but unions believe more protections will be required to facilitate it without discrimination or loss of pay and conditions.

    Those are the results of a survey of 10,000 Australian employees conducted by unions, which found that 40% are working longer hours and 90% are not being paid overtime or penalty rates for extra hours worked.

    The Australian Council of Trade Unions released the survey on Wednesday ahead of an executive meeting to adopt a charter of rights around working from home.

    Working from home will be one of the union movement’s major demands as the government attempts to kickstart the economy out of the Covid-19 recession, along with its reconstruction plan proposing renewable energy investments and free childcare.

    The industrial relations minister, Christian Porter, recently encouraged companies to bring their staff back to the office “as quickly as possible” where safe to do so as part of efforts to restore the normal functioning of the economy.

    But according to the ACTU survey, workers are not yet ready to give up Zoom meetings in pyjama bottoms – the reality for many stuck at home during coronavirus lockdowns.

  4. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. I’ve waited four years for this day. I hope it was worth it!

    Porter’s plan will help cover up corruption, not expose it, warns Geoffrey Watson SC who is singularly unimpressed with the token offering.
    And Greg Barns writes that the integrity commission must not become a toothless, taxpayer-funded tiger. He says that as it currently is framed, there will be no deterrence to the types of conduct that we have been so concerned about in recent times.
    Christopher Knaus and Paul Karp report that key crossbenchers in the Senate have said government delays to the proposed anti-corruption commission mean there is little chance it will be established before the next federal election.
    David Crowe says that Morrison is preparing to fly to Japan within weeks to strike a new deal on defence technology against the backdrop of tensions with China and the aftermath of the US election.
    The Reserve Bank of Australia has embraced unprecedented, unconventional policies with both arms. Better late than never, declares the SMH editorial.
    RBA’s Philip Lowe has thrown the kitchen sink, writes Warren Hogan for the AFR.
    Michael Pascoe writes that we’re back to pushing up housing prices as economic policy. It’s another form of trickle-down he says.
    Australian exporters to China are facing a $6 billion cliff after unconfirmed instructions from Chinese customs authorities threatened to ban Australian wine, copper, barley, coal, sugar, timber and lobster from Friday. China/Australia relations are not on a good trajectory.
    And Elizabeth Knight describes how the covert but damaging diplomatic trade war between Australia and China is producing a mounting number of casualties among Australian companies that rely on exports to China.
    Ross Gittins wonders if this government wants to enshrine Australia as the last giant of the disappearing world of fossil fuels, and pay the price of declining relevance to the changing needs of our trading partners, with all the loss of jobs and growth that would entail.
    People are spending more on food delivery, online gambling and furniture than pre-pandemic levels. But they are spending less on public transport, travel and tolls, writes Matt Wade.
    Tome Rabe tells us that one of the state’s top officials has criticised a parliamentary investigation into the NSW government’s controversial grants program, accusing it of taking a “selective approach” to releasing information.
    The Australian Commission for Law Enforcement Integrity (ACLEI) said it had received 172 notifications of potential corruption with 167 of those relating to bodies under the Department of Home Affairs umbrella, its 2019-20 annual report revealed.
    Nick McKenzie and Charlotte Grieve reveal that the former head of Australia’s top anti-corruption agency flew to the United States to personally gather intelligence from American investigators for his probe into alleged corruption involving ASX-listed shipbuilder Austal.
    In a long argument, Paddy Gourly heavily criticises Michael Pezzullo’s last two security “sermons”.
    Trump’s consequence-free presidency turned politics into a game and there are lessons for Australia opines Peter Lewis.
    While the Royal Commission into Aged Care Quality and Safety’s recommendations set out the “what” to do, it is now up to the commission’s final report to work out the “how”, explains Rachel Lane.
    Rex Patrick said he won’t vote for the government’s changes to the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation (EPBC) Act, due to the government’s “disturbing” failure to ensure environmental protections would be maintained, writes Mike Foley.
    Jess Davis tells us that scientists are warning Australia’s biosecurity system needs a major overhaul, with the threat of severe biosecurity events like COVID-19 increasing.
    And in good news, the Whiting of the Murray is staging a big comeback!
    Our suburb didn’t die during lockdown, says Greg Baum. In fact, he continues, there were even more people in the streets than usual – but there was always the air of the prison exercise yard.
    Gary Punch, a former minister in the Hawke and Keating governments, writes that a Trump victory would necessitate the most expensive revamp in our defence preparedness since the fall of Singapore in 1942.
    Rupert Murdoch’s Foxtel is under attack on many fronts, from specialist sports streaming services, Netflix, Stan and Amazon Prime to Kevin Rudd’s cancel News Corp petition. A new tie-up between Fetch TV and a cloud application platform ratchet’s up the pressure. Anthony Eales reports on Foxtel’s battle for survival.
    Britain’s terrorism threat level has been raised to “severe” following attacks in France and Austria.
    National Guard troops are on standby in case of violence. Lawyers are readying for court challenges. These aren’t the symptoms of a healthy democracy, writes Matthew Knott.
    Belgium is air-lifting patients to Germany as the pandemic surge continues.
    According to Rafael Behr, Trump and Johnson have shown countries need leaders, not celebrity politicians.
    And the ever-entertaining John Crace tells us that a subdued Boris Johnson just a piece of flotsam being buffeted around.
    Donald Trump can’t win – can he? America is on high alert over whether Joe Biden gets to turn the political dial back to normal or Trump shocks democracy again, writes Jennifer Hewett.
    Donald Trump has exhibited many signs of a dangerous mental condition during his time in the White House, writes Lyn Bender.,14476
    John Lord writes that America is voting to stop the decay.
    Kim Hoggard, a US expat who served as a senior advisor to Reagan and GHW Bush, says this is her country’s moment to mend the soul of a broken democracy.
    The real reason Trump is terrified of losing the presidency is fear of prosecution, writes Samer S Shehata.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    Peter Broelman

    Andrew Dyson

    John Shakespeare

    Cathy Wilcox

    Matt Golding

    Glen Le Lievre (a gif)
    Johannes Leak

    Mark Knight

    Alan Moir

    From the US

  5. Brendan Murphy has been nominated for Australian of the Year. By whom? ScottyfromMarketing? The objections, with examples of his behaviour during Covid, are gathering momentum.

  6. Having tried late last week, but not receiving the verification email for some reason, I tried again this morning.


    I’m Number: 477344

    Take that Rupert!

  7. VicGovDHHS
    Zero new cases and zero lives lost reported in the last 24 hours. The 14 day rolling average is now 1.7, and there are 2 cases with an unknown source.

  8. Quentin Dempster
    “Kill the Bill”. Murdoch’s @australian rejects ANY anti-corruption body, not just ⁦AG @cporterwa⁩’s version. Clamour for fedICAC a conspiracy of “Twitter lynch mob”, Labor/Greens/independents + handful of virtue signalling barristers. Rule of law? It’s the rule of Rupert!

  9. lizzie @ #9 Wednesday, November 4th, 2020 – 7:23 am

    Quentin Dempster
    “Kill the Bill”. Murdoch’s @australian rejects ANY anti-corruption body, not just ⁦AG @cporterwa⁩’s version. Clamour for fedICAC a conspiracy of “Twitter lynch mob”, Labor/Greens/independents + handful of virtue signalling barristers. Rule of law? It’s the rule of Rupert!

    Surely Newscorpse has nothing to hide?!

  10. Morning all, thanks BK for your contribution which is arguably an ‘institution’ by now.
    The effect of internalising the last 4 years of Trump, Johnston, Morrison and Gladys have taken their toll and it can be only hoped that today stars a process of healing for the world.
    Of course this ignores the pain and suffering of billions in less newsworthy countries where massacre, corruption and maladministration go on ‘unseen’ by the first world.
    Try to stay safe and well whatever the outcome.

  11. There is a movement in Hughes to get rid of Craig Kelly, who seems to have gone off the reservation. He has now changed his profile picture to the U.S flag!

  12. I signed the Rudd petition and am sure most here did.
    I did see a tweet from the Ruddster chiding Bandt and the greens for not supporting it.
    Is that right?

  13. Apparently the same people that dragged Shorten and Gillard through a RC hoping for dirt have become very nervous about the reputational damage an actual effective ICAC might do.

  14. Henry

    [I did see a tweet from the Ruddster chiding Bandt and the greens for not supporting it.
    Is that right?]

    Yes Rudd leading with his chin given ALP has rebuffed as well.

  15. Michael McGowan at The Guardian Australia live blog reporting on the CPAC event in Sydney; head over there if you want nuts with your fruit loops.

  16. Jaeger @ #19 Wednesday, November 4th, 2020 – 8:37 am

    Michael McGowan at The Guardian Australia live blog reporting on the CPAC event in Sydney; head over there if you want nuts with your fruit loops.

    Thanks for the tip, but nah. Life’s too short…

    McQueen says that while she isn’t criticising the Prime Minister, her lesson from the Queensland election is that the Liberal Party needs to talk about free speech more.

  17. Before I get totally consumed by the US thread, to add to BK’s sterling effort, this is a good read on Australia/China relations. Thumbs down to the amateurs in Canberra, led by that 2D arch showman Morrison, currently strutting their ignorance and incompetence in all things diplomatic.

    A former Australian ambassador to China has called on the Federal Government to rethink its relationship with Beijing amid what he calls “the greatest power shift that has occurred in modern history”.

    Dr Raby, who served as Australia’s top diplomat in China from 2007 to 2011, told the ABC relations between Australia and China were at their lowest point since ties were established in 1972.

  18. Itza
    My number 2 son has been at the Australian Embassy in Beijing for two years representing the Department of Agriculture. You can imagine the time he is having over there at the moment!

  19. Albo had no choice wrrt Rudd’s petition shellbell.
    Labors already poor treatment by Murdoch would become even worse if he agreed with it. They’d be smashed.
    The greens, as a minor party full of sound and fury, would have nothing to lose by supporting it.

  20. Henry

    Labors already poor treatment by Murdoch would become even worse if he agreed with it. They’d be smashed.

    So Labor cowers in the face of Rupert. Lays down and accepts the status quo. No wonder Barry Jones suggested ‘The Timid Party” as an alternative name of Labor in his new book. Libs were the ‘Self Interest Party’

  21. To release some of the building tension, Amy is here to help.

    Annastacia Palaszczuk is apparently not returning Gladys Berejiklian’s messages. I mean, I have no insight into their personal relationship – but it couldn’t be because of the constant and widespread attacks over borders during the Queensland election campaign could it?
    5 m ago

  22. I agree poroti, I wish Albo and labor had come out and supported Rudd’s petition.
    They could have done so in a relatively nuanced way without poking the Murdoch bear too much.
    From fighting tories to appeasing them, Albo has disappointed me greatly with his leadership.

  23. Henry @ #24 Wednesday, November 4th, 2020 – 9:03 am

    Albo had no choice wrrt Rudd’s petition shellbell.
    Labors already poor treatment by Murdoch would become even worse if he agreed with it. They’d be smashed.
    The greens, as a minor party full of sound and fury, would have nothing to lose by supporting it.

    Ummm, how could the treatment by Murdoch be any worse? And the Qld election result shows that Murdoch may have lost a lot of his influence. They tried to negate Anna’s strong point of keeping borders restricted by relentless criticism but that wasn’t effective.

  24. Hard to see how they could go any lower with Mr Albanese after the photograph they took of him with Craig Thomson with an accompanying story before the 2013 election.

    Wasn’t there also some association with the fact that there has been an armed robbery in the area of the stinkiest the night before.

    Mr Albanese can run safely with the lack of competition line.

  25. If only Ross could have slept around more while preaching family values, this decline may have been averted.

    [Then Rowan Dean asks Cameron whether a “Trump landslide” or “Trumpslide” will inspire a new conservatism in Australia. Cameron doesn’t seem confident.

    “If we are brutally honest with each other, we would say our culture is in decline,” he tells the crowd.

    “We would probably say our culture is in terminal decline. If we look at the birth rates. we’re now down to 1.5 … I would give Australia about a 5% chance.” ]

  26. What’s worse than “drunk the Kool Aid”? Swallowed the coal dust? Let’s try to remember that this ragtag and bobtail mob used to represent the Country, but they got ambitious.

    Tim Stephens
    According to Australia’s Deputy Prime Minister you should not be allowed in Parliament unless you’ve pledged fealty to coal barons.

  27. Dr Daya Sharma
    Uncomfortable truth: NSW is now the biggest #COVID19 risk in Australia.

    Calling our strategy “gold standard” is like saying that Sisyphus is a better mountain climber than Edmund Hillary.

    We’re not doing enough to stop this outbreak after >3 months. #nswpol #auspol #COVID19Aus

  28. Must be pretty insufferable being a Labor supporter sometimes.
    When even when the ALP have been doing better than one might reasonably expect recently. That there seems to be so many carping and crying about ‘teh Greens’ not screaming their support for the Rudd Murdoch petition.

    More pathetic BS from Laborites if they’re trying to attack the Greens because they won’t make some public statement or something to support the petition, when their own so-called leader, but apparently gutless wonder, has clearly stated that the Labor party won’t support or even consider Rudd’s petition.

    One response I saw also suggested MPs are not supposed to be making public comments about e-petitions that are going to be submitted to the parliament as well.

    Meanwhile, the Australian Greens were years ahead.
    Also interesting how the BBC and overseas news ran a story about an enquiry into Murdoch but apparently the Australian media were too useless or gutless in 2011 to run with any story about an enquiry into Murdoch and NewsCorpse.

    Strangely, the Laborite carping and carry on about ‘teh Greens’ on this topic seems to have got even more idiotic since the Qld election.

    Australia Greens call for inquiry into Murdoch media – in 2011

    Evidently the Labor party was as useless and scared of Murdoch then, just as they are now.

  29. Independent newspaper has been putting out selected articled written by the late Robert Fisk. Here he speaks to bin Laden when he was in his ‘engineering; days.
    6 December 1993:
    Anti-Soviet warrior puts his army on the road to peace

    Robert Fisk is the first western journalist to interview Osama bin Laden, ‘

    …………..“this job” is certainly an ambitious one: a brand-new highway stretching all the way from Khartoum to Port Sudan, a distance of 1,200km (745 miles) on the old road, now shortened to 800km by the new bin Laden route that will turn the coastal run from the capital into a mere day’s journey.


  30. Yikes!!!!

    No amount of viagra is going to “revive” Packer’s Pecker, or Packer himself!!!!

    A public inquiry into Crown Resorts has been told that the gambling giant is unfit to operate a casino in NSW and that the damaging influence of its billionaire backer James Packer is one of the key reasons for its unsuitability.

    On any other day than today this would be the B-I-G story of the day.

    It’s fucking y-o-o-g-e!!!

  31. Danama Papers

    They chose a great day to “bury” that bit of news. Best news I’ll hear all day. Second best is that it is Tones’ birthday……………………………and he is stuck in hotel quarantine 😆

  32. I’ve just discovered that my poodle has eaten a large hole (a handsbreadth) out of the front of my most comfortable jumper. If it’s an omen, I wonder what it means. 🙁

  33. Re Crown Casino

    “…The assertions came in the closing statement from the lawyer [Adam Bell] running an inquiry into whether Crown should be allowed to operate a 75-floor casino tower on the Sydney waterfront that it has spent A$2.2 billion ($1.6 billion) building and plans to open next month.

    Though the remarks do not amount to formal recommendations, they raise the prospect that the inquiry will not go in Crown’s favour.”

  34. This gov never follows convention and doesn’t care.

    The minister for communications, Paul Fletcher, said Mundine was a distinguished Australian and an advocate for Indigenous people when appointing him as a non-executive director of the multicultural public broadcaster on 31 October.

    “He will be a valuable addition to the SBS board, bringing over 40 years of experience in roles across government, business and the community sector,” Fletcher said.

    When announcing the appointment, the minister said the government had “followed the legislated process for making this appointment, including considering the report of the independent nomination panel”.

    But a spokesman for Fletcher has clarified that Mundine was handpicked by the government and not recommended by the independent nominations panel.

  35. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Wheat exporters are nervously watching the escalating trade dispute with China amid fears they could be Beijing’s next target. Surely Michael McCormack can step in here!
    Michaela Whitbourn explains how former NSW ICAC Assistant Commissioner Anthony Whealy has severely criticised the federal government’s proposed CIC.
    Elizabeth Knight tells us how Packer kicked a mighty own goal with Crown.
    Jacqui Lambie wants to pump the brakes on legislation aimed at speeding up environmental approvals.
    Developments in telecommunications and technology are key to creating more liveable regional centres, writes Paul Budde.,14479
    Thanks Woodside. Taxpayers are on the hook for the $200 million-plus clean-up of an ageing oil production platform moored in the Timor Sea. Is Exxon next to shirk its oil rig clean up in the Bass Strait? Callum Foote reports.
    Jess Irvine looks at what a world of quantitative easing could mean for Australia.
    Australia’s interest rates are low and staying low. It’s time to ask for a better home loan advises Greg Jericho.
    Annastacia Palaszczuk’s career in politics has been downplayed as luck and not based on her own strengths, writes Noely Neate.,14478
    David Crowe reports that one of the country’s most powerful union leaders will step down today as head of the CFMMEU after a war of attrition that has split the union.
    Donald Trump has done little to counter China, and Joe Biden would do no better. Australia must therefore face up to a future of fading US power in our region, warns Hugh White.
    According to Phil Coorey, both sides in Australian politics say they will work with whomever wins but Labor believes Joe Biden would be better for climate change and global stability.
    Biden as president would pursue climate ‘cheaters’ – and Australia could be among them, opines Richie Merzian who says Morrison has resisted a call to action from the UK – but the US would be hard to ignore.
    “Until Donald Trump took to the podium, election day 2020 was a vindication of American democracy. Turnout was high and voting orderly. And the contest was extremely competitive. Until Donald Trump took to the podium, it could well have been a case study in the durability of the American democratic spirit”, says Peter Hartcher who describes Trump’s behaviour as that of a tinpot Third World dictator in a First World country.
    Paul Kelly writes that a broken America is bitterly divided and Australia will feel the consequences. (This appears to have been written before it became apparent that Trump is likely to lose).
    The AFR’s Andrew Clark writes that the once-proud nation that dominated the Western world is in a post-election mess, where the road to recovery is unclear.
    Donald Trump took a leaf out of the autocrat playbook by falsely declaring victory before all votes counted, writes Professor Natasha Lindstaedt.
    The more disturbing issue is not who wins the presidency, but how they will they govern when the US is more polarised than at any time since the Civil War, opines Tom Switzer.
    The SMH editorial believes that a prolonged fight for a election result will only inflame US tensions.
    Matthew Knott describes Trump’s false claims as a dark, disturbing moment in American history.
    Richard Wolffe explains why 2020 won’t be a repeat of Gore v Bush in 2000.
    Should Biden win, Trump’s supporters will believe his victory to be illegitimate warns Nick O’Malley.
    Bruce Wolpe says that a scarred nation is bracing for more hurt and division.
    David Crowe tells us how some Australian MPs have called on Trump to respect the verdict of the voters.
    Political sociologist Salvatore Babones explains why the US polls were wrong – and will never be right again.
    “OK, America, so what the hell happens now?”, asks Marina Hyde.
    The Australian Government continues to endorse Israel and fund in-country projects, while it reduces funding to the UNRWA and ignores the plight of Palestinians, writes Ali Kazak.,14481

    Cartoon Corner

    Alan Moir

    David Rowe

    Matt Davidson

    Peter Broelman

    Andrew Dyson

    John Shakespeare

    Cathy Wilcox

    Matt Golding

    Glen Le Lievre (a gif)
    Johannes Leak

    From the US

  36. Good Morning.

    Damn our media is irresponsible.

    Dangerous times but it’s looking like the nightmare of Trump will soon be over.
    Damn glad I did not quote exit polls.

    Edit: Big shout out to sitting Labor and Green MP’s who did go public supporting democracy unlike Morrison the Hollow Man.

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