10.21pm. Most of the bugs in my election results facility have resolved now (though there’s still a few odd quirks that I’ll hopefully be able to iron out this evening), so if you have any sort of interest in the late counting, I suggest this is the place to follow it. Certainly it’s the best place to observe results at booth level – a lot of effort has been done to condense these into something manageable out of the needless thicket of detail published by the ECQ. And if you do find that of use, you might also care to tip some pennies into my tip jar, which takes the form of the “become a supporter” button at the top of the page.
10.06pm. The ABC is now projecting (but not calling) 51 seats for Labor, so it seems there may have been a dynamic where the late-reporting pre-polls leaned in their favour & though they may also done put them under a little more pressure from the Greens in McConnel and Cooper.
10.00pm. Antony Green relating that there has been a turn in Labor’s favour in both Townsville and Thuringowa, where the first especially looked doubtful for them through the night.
9.52pm. My live results facility is a lot less screwy now that I’ve turned booth-matching off (although there are still some clangers: Labor is assuredly not winning Hill and Scenic Rim, nor the LNP McConnel and Rockhampton).
9.44pm. The Greens have narrowed the gap against the LNP in the race for second in McConnel, which would give them a chance of overhauling Labor on their preferences if they bridged it. If this is part of a pre-poll trend, it could give them a shot at a third seat. That’s without factoring in Cooper, which is similarly placed and remains a wild card, though there too the Greens are third on the primary vote, and will presumably not do well on postals.
9.43pm. The ABC computer is now calling for Pumicestone for Labor, which means both the networks have Labor in majority government territory.
9.38pm. The Nine Network’s system is apparently more bullish for Labor than the ABC’s, projecting 50 seats.
9.30pm. Three LNP seats starting with C, Chatsworth, Clayfield and Currumbin, are now being rated as LNP retain by the ABC after earlier being rated in doubt.
9.23pm. Antony Green relates that the ECQ’s feed is lacking two-party preferred data for seats in the second half of the alphabet, so presumably the ABC is going off preference estimates for all those seats.
8.38pm. I note that high-profile Clive Palmer candidate Greg Downling is vying for North Queensland First for last past in a large field in Townsville. Palmer’s part is on 0.6% statewide.
8.35pm. I believe we’ve hit the lull in counting that characteristically sets in when the booths have wrapped up their count (easily done in the current climate) and we’re hanging on for the much larger early voting centres.
8.33pm. Labor would lose its majority with a net loss of two seats. They could lose two seats to the Greens — certainly South Brisbane and quite possibly Cooper (the Greens have fallen to third in McConnel). Conversely, they have gained Caloundra. There are a whole bunch of seats they could win off the LNP, but the only one that looks really strong for them is Pumicestone, where they have a strong lead although the count there is slow. However, they are in at least some danger of losing Redlands, Redcliffe, Thuringowa and Townsville, though my money would be on them in first three. What’s clear is that the LNP won’t have a majority — the question is whether enough of the close seats go against Labor to put them in a precarious minority position. But another small Labor majority is at least as likely.
8.18pm. It’s now lineball in Coomera, an LNP-held seat on the Gold Coast.
8.11pm. Counterbalancing the trouble Labor may be in in Redcliffe, the ABC computer suggests the possibility of a Labor boilover in Clayfield, held by former LNP leader Tim Nicholls. My feeling would be that both incumbents will hang on, but time will tell.
8.07pm. I haven’t mentioned Cooper yet, a potential fourth seat for the Greens. Basically it’s a three-way mash-up on the primary vote, and my guess would be that the Greens will win if it’s the LNP that drops out. My assumption was of a strong flow of LNP preferences to the Greens, given the LNP’s tactic of putting Labor last on how-to-votes, but it seems others aren’t so sure.
8.04pm. Steven Miles on the ABC hearing better information for Labor from Redcliffe, if I heard him correctly.
8.03pm. Chatsworth is close, as it usually is, but both my and Antony’s projections have it as a narrow LNP retain.
8.01pm. Antony notes that Labor may have a problem in the north Brisbane seat of Redcliffe, which would be a quirky result if so (causing me to be cautious).
8.00pm. I forgot about Burleigh in my Gold Coast review, where surfing legend Wayne Bartholemew may bed doing the trick for Labor, at least to the extent that it’s close.
7.57pm. The Sunshine Coast trend to Labor is relatively subdued in Glass House, but this being a very tight LNP-held seat, it’s certainly in play.
7.55pm. Down to the wire in Currumbin, but otherwise the Gold Coast doesn’t seem to bringing home any bacon for Labor. There is a big swing to the LNP swing in Bonney for some reason (partly sophomore surge effect).
7.53pm. My Sunshine Coast review missed Nicklin, a normally secure LNP seat (former independent Peter Wellington notwithstanding) where they are only slightly in front.
7.52pm. Also good early numbers for Labor in Hervey Bay, where few were anticipating they would win. This seat’s demographic skews very old.
7.49pm. The Sunshine Coast: Labor will win Caloundra and, early days though it may be, probably Pumicestone. However, that early scare for the LNP in Buderim has at least faded, although they’re not out of the woods. If Labor keeps its majority, it will have this region to thank. Note that I’m including links where my results pages are working fully.
7.45pm. Regional round-up part two: Townsville. The Townsville electorate is again down to the wire, with the ABC computer having the LNP with its nose in front. Labor apparently has its nose in front in both Thuringowa and Mundingburra. The LNP is presumably sweating on some regional late counting trend to deliver them a swag here.
7.44pm. The ABC computer finally calls South Brisbane for the Greens, and Labor are in big trouble in McConnel as well. So clearly two seats for the Greens, and it will be three unless the pre-poll and postal dynamic is different.
7.43pm. Antony makes the well-made point that a different dynamic on pre-polls and postals could, at this of all elections, completely flip things around.
7.42pm. I’ll start looking at it on a region-by-region basis, starting with Cairns. Labor has retained the Cairns electorate with a slight swing; there is now also a swing in Labor’s favour in Barron River, which they will hold. Mulgrave was never in doubt but there’s no swing. So a pretty good show in Cairns overall, despite the tourism slump, perhaps reflecting a general retiree effect.
7.40pm. It’s very tight in Buderim, a Sunshine Coast seat the LNP wouldn’t have counted on losing. I think the deal with my results page is that it’s working well for vanilla Labor-versus-LNP contests once two-party preferred results appear in the system. There’s a lot of screwiness on the entry page, which I only recommend for the links to the electorate results pages.
7.38pm. Also working is my page for Caloundra, where it looks like Labor are home: the ABC computer has it back to a Labor gain, compensating for a Labor loss in South Brisbane that the ABC computer is still being too conservative about. Other than that though everything looks remarkably status quo at this point, but obviously there are still a lot of seats that are too early or too close to call.
7.35pm. My results page for Currumbin, at least, is working well and it has an LNP win probability of 51%.
7.30pm. As Antony notes, a modest swing to Labor in the south-east and the other way round in the regions. As I speak, he has the first real numbers in from Pumicestone, a very tight LNP marginal on the cusp of Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast where the incumbent is retiring, and they’re very encouraging for Labor.
7.26pm. The ABC has the KAP ahead in Cook, but I’d very much doubt that — it will be based on preference estimates, and it would be hard to see them overcoming Labor’s 42.5% to 17.1% lead on primaries. The LNP are second, but the projection would have the KAP overtaking the LNP with the help of One Nation’s 7.0%.
7.24pm. There isn’t a single seat the ABC computer is recording as changing hands, though I suspect it’s being conservative in South Brisbane. Caloundra has been downgraded from Labor gain to Labor ahead.
7.20pm. The Cairns electorate is resisting the dangerous trend for Labor in north Queensland, perhaps reflecting its large population of retirees.
7.18pm. Conversely, so have the LNP in Bundaberg.
7.17pm. Labor has bounced back in Barron River after an early scare.
7.16pm. It does rather look like the Greens will win South Brisbane. Very early days in McConnel, but the tiny early booth that’s in there is also good for the Greens.
7.15pm. Labor is retaining its Brisbane marginals, though not with huge swings.
7.13pm. Currumbin looks likely to be closely watched throughout the evening, being a potential Gold Coast gain for Labor in which there’s currently nothing in it.
7.12pm. The ABC calling Mirani as One Nation retain, and Labor in Aspley, a loseable seat in inner northern Brisbane.
7.07pm. The ABC computer is calling Caloundra for Labor, which is huge if true. Another sign of the election going according to script, with grey voters causing Labor to go well in a few places that traditionally aren’t strong for them, but a challenge for Labor with the dynamic of One Nation voters in north and central Queensland moving to the LNP.
7.01pm. One Nation’s one incumbent, Stephen Andrew in Mirani, is bucking his party’s trend, maintaining a slight lead over the LNP on the primary vote and doing well enough that he should be returned on their preferences if it stays that way.
6.58pm. Where substantial results are in, things seem to be going according to script. In Mundingburra, One Nation is well done, the LNP have got more of the dividend than Labor, there’s a slight swing to the LNP on two-party, and overall it looks close in this marginal Labor-held Townsville seat. Antony Green is also pointing to a fairly solid but very early swing to the LNP in Barron River. I’m providing links where my results facility seems to be working.
6.54pm. My election results facility is bug city, but it seems to be doing its job in Bundaberg, an LNP-held margin where it’s looking tight, and Maiwar, where Greens incumbent Michael Berkman appears to be enjoying a handsome sophomore surge, which should raise Greens hopes for other inner-city seats.
6.51pm. My election results page has perked up. Bottom line is that it will work in a patchy, buggy sort of a way. The aggregated votes at the top of the page have 3273 votes to work with, and they point to a large transfer of votes from One Nation to the LNP, as anticipated.
6.17pm. The front page of my results facility doesn’t seem to be fully firing, which I think is because the mercurial ECQ feed only has headline numbers in it. But if you follow the seat links on the left-hand side, you will see results in seats where it says “0%” for the amount counted. As always, these are small booths from country seats.
6pm. Polls have closed. I have a very ambitious live results set-up here — let’s see how we go, but experience suggests it will be of more use in the late count than on the night. I’ll start promoting it more thoroughly if it seems to be working more-or-less okay.sto
Ch9 coverage more interesting. Chris Uhlmann calling it for majority Labor.
Anna can thank the overpaid Qantas CEO for his timely intervention, another brilliant freeloading businessman with an opinion on Covid policy.
Lars Von Trier says:
Saturday, October 31, 2020 at 9:16 pm
Windhover says:
Saturday, October 31, 2020 at 9:12 pm
Fair to say LNP can’t hope to form government without a 4 in front of their first preferences. Their first preferences are a disgrace.
Hope lvt can hold up bravely trolling on and on.
___________________________
Who cares windhover – Labor in minority is a great outcome for democracy in Old! We’ll have to see the pre-polls and postals but it certainly seems that way atm.
………………………
Very brave lvt. Keep it up.
State Labor Governments work in Morrisons favour – much like they did in the Age of Howard.
Time to break out the Bundy rum? Who am I kidding!
Lars
Not sure where you’re getting Labor in a minority from.
Post deleted for repetition.
Air, not sure who said ‘the result is the fault of Morrison’? More like his own perceived popularity seems not to have translated in this election.
Windhover @ #148 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 9:19 pm
Some might say a triumph of hope over experience.
The ABC missed a good opportunity. They could have had a Green politician on the panel. Seeing the misery on the One Nation politician for balance would have been worth it.
Previously I said Labor might wind up in a minority government with the Greens as a worst case outcome for Labor. I did not say it would be a minority. If Labor picks up 3+ seats on the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast, and loses less than that in NQld, then they stay in majority.
DPRee @ #153 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 9:22 pm
I detect an undercurrent of people getting sick to death of the takeover of politics by religious fundies. Morrison included. It’s why he hides his weekly faith rituals away under a burning bush, incommunicado and plays up the Daggy Dad routine.
Lol Socrates trying to walk back his call. Same with C@t.
Its always easier to sit on the sidelines sprocket style I guess.
Daily Rupert calling it for Labor (but Jackie Trad gone).
First the western suburbs of Melbourne, now Townsville. Ever get the feeling scare campaigns about “youth crime” don’t work as well as the forces of darkness want them to? Labor got written off there, now it seems they might keep all three seats.
Can’t speak to the veracity, but:
#QLDvotes A capsule from McConnel, where the vote right now is in three roughly equal slabs:
Booths today: Labor 32%, Greens 31, LNP 28.
Pre-polls: Labor 39, Greens 27, LNP 26.
Postals: LNP 38.5, Labor 35.5, Greens 20.
Most votes to come will be pre-polls and booths.
Zerlo @ #126 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 9:07 pm
And its name was Campbell Newman. 😆
Greens totally not social distancing.
Green candidate explaining their Magic Pudding Policies
Zerlo, totally didn’t notice that, nice one.
Be funny if they got a fine.
Zerlo
Greens totally not social distancing.
———-
That’s Qld distancing. There’s no covid there.
guytaur:
“The ABC missed a good opportunity. They could have had a Green politician on the panel.”
Yep. Instead, they went for two ALP and two LNP. Go figure …
Rakali says:
Saturday, October 31, 2020 at 9:31 pm
And with that ignorance….. You will have another wave of COVID.
Bird of paradox @ #160 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 9:27 pm
Because people aren’t stupid and ignorant of the facts. That is, that, let’s call it for what it overwhelmingly is, Indigenous Youth Crime, is a function, not of being sent home at 8pm and that will cause it to cease to exist, but the dysfunction of the family, dysfunction which a simplistic curfew policy would never solve.
Sure, the matter needs to be dealt with but in a holistic way, a helpful not harmful way wrt those families and those children.
My God the Wallabies are shitheap
Guardian:
“Pauline Hanson has told Sky News she does not believe Annastacia Palaszczuk will get back in to government.
For some reason, she is not concerned with her party’s voting numbers – she thinks postals will break in One Nation’s favour.
”
Total ignorance will cost her further votes.
Ch9 says there are alarm bells in the Qld result for Anthony Albanese, based on some online poll…
Called it about the Jackie and the Feds.
Could someone opine on Steven Miles.
44/45 seats to labor / 29 to LNP.
C@tmomma, I look forward to more and more people delving deeper into the real character of the current PM, and seeing beyond his game show host spiel.
Looking at this, the seat swings are mostly to incumbents: https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2020/results?filter=all&sort=az
guytaur
Greens are irrelevant and always will be in Australian politics.
Ever since they torpedoed Rudd’s CPRS plan they have lost me.
They will always be minions full of inflated pretenders.
So they took Jackie Trads seat?
Whoopie….party hats out, whoah, exactly what has that achieved?
We lose an effective member of parliament for a crossbencher who will have absolutely nothing to do with government policy!
Enjoy your pseudo celebration.
Zerlo @ #173 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 8:33 pm
Zero covid cases in the wild in Qld for weeks. Do you think it arises spontaneously when people touch?
John Cee @ #172 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 9:35 pm
Albanese is pursuing the same middle of the road strategy as Anastacia Palaszczjuk. And Joe Biden. Looks like a winning strategy to me.
Zerlo
With the Greens that’s a Labor government. Of course they are going to get a majority. However the voters are telling the world the Greens are not the toxic political poison the pundits and LNP and Labor politicians are pretending they are
Dishhead Dowling on 1.9% in Townsville – remarkable if ALP holds 2 of the 3 there after all the Courier Mail horror seat polling..
Been There @ #178 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 9:38 pm
Exactly. A Pyrrhic victory for the Little Libs if ever there was one.
Been There.
Yeah the Greens are so toxic they are on the rise with voters. See what Jacinta Ardern has done. See what Labor in the ACT has done.
It’s not the doom and gloom preached by many.
44 Labor + 2 Green + Cooper
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2020/guide/coop
= 47
So the Greens got a member elected on Liberal preferences.
guytaur @ #186 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 8:39 pm
Perhaps wait until the washout to see if their voter percentage has changed. It’s not like they have won any seats here in their own right; they have been reliant on major party voter preferences getting them over the line.
It’s Time says:
Saturday, October 31, 2020 at 9:38 pm
You forget that China didn’t have COVID for a while either, and yet, in pockets there still cases. The same can be said for NSW.
Ignorance and Stupidity. This virus doesn’t do ignorance and Stupidity.
“The most expensive 0.6% of the vote that someone has ever got” – Antony Green
guytaur
On the same metric, we should take the Katter party seriously. After all, it seems they’ll hold more seats than the Greens.
It’s Time
The Greens have done well in the last few weeks.
Remember even in the post you replied to I confirmed my opinion that Labor will be a majority.
It’s a win for the left. The right is suffering the big losses.
If Labor falls short of a majority, it should decline to form government. They should sit on the opposite. Benches and pass everything that Freckles proposes. A dose of LNP unplugged is what is needed to put the greens in the bin and the LNP back into opposition in 2024 for another 30 years.
guytaur
The greens are getting their reward for always campaigning for the Liberal.
On the count the Greens are leading on first preferences in South Brisbane.
If that is wining on preferences then isn’t it true to say most seats can only be won on preferences?
Well, seen from a long, long way off, the point the pundits seem to be avoiding is how poorly the LNP has done rather than whether Labor has an outright majority or not. On ABC coverage much gnashing of teeth about Trad losing to the Greens but little discussion of why Queensland is now making Labor competitive again……………………not to mention the near death of ON and Palmer being shown up for the phoney he is….Roll on March 2021 for Labor in WA………………the Libs are even more invisible here than in Queensland currently……..