Keeping it holy

Marking the sabbath with a compendium of federal preselection news, the most notable relating to the looming by-election in Groom.

Queensland’s Liberal National Party will take a break from electioneering tomorrow to determine its candidate for Groom,who is all but assured of a quick passage to parliament after the by-election on November 24. This contest has been enlivened by reports that David van Gend, an unsuccessful past nominee with unorthodox views on social issues, has emerged as the front-runner. Van Gend reportedly enjoys well-organised backing from religious conservatives, and Crikey reports he bears endorsement Eric Abetz, Matt Canavan, Miranda Devine and Howard-era Deputy Prime Minister John Anderson. As The Guardian notes, this comes at a time when conservative state MPs are making life difficult for their leadership by conjuring controversies around abortion at the sharp end of an election campaign. The LNP’s deep state would evidently prefer it if locals favoured Toowoomba councillor Rebecca Vonhoff or Australian Lot Feeders president Bryce Camm.

Other preselection news:

• In other Queensland federal preselection news, a gossip column in the Cairns Post reports Cairns regional councillor Brett Olds will seek preselection to succeed Warren Entsch in the far north Queensland seat of Leichhardt, and suggests Olds has the support of Entsch. The 70-year-old Entsch said before the last election that this term would be his last.

• The Western Australian Greens have preselected Dorinda Cox, an anti-domestic violence campaigner and former police office of Yamatji Noongar background, to lead the party’s Senate ticket at the next election, in place of the retiring Rachel Siewert. It is often the practice in the Greens for outgoing Senators to retire before the election and allow their preselected successor to fill their vacancy, but it is unclear if this is the idea on this occasion.

• The Australian Capital Territory election would seem to have been decided with a result of Labor 10 (down two), Liberal nine (down two) and Greens six (up four), which you can read all about here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

879 comments on “Keeping it holy”

Comments Page 15 of 18
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  1. PRGuy
    @PRGuy17
    ·
    1m
    Journo: Is there any reason Sutton hasn’t said anything today?
    Dan: Because you haven’t asked him any questions. On behalf of Victorians I thank the CHO.

  2. One of the haranguing female reporters has asked how many contact tracers in Victoria has been outsourced and from which companies.
    Motive?

  3. Spray

    It’s been a very tiring day and I’m sorry I’m just not up to any more deep analysis. Everyone has been picking at Jerome and Dan just to make a story.

  4. Earlier there were some queries as to the name of some media lizards at Dan’s presser. I have not seen any of them but from descriptions here I am pretty sure they were all Karens.

  5. Rachel has argued all afternoon that NSW doesn’t use pen and paper for records and wouldn’t accept Dan’s word.

    @mikeaubrey2
    ·Watching Andrews presser again today & listening to Rachel in particular trying for gotcha, for her information NSW does not have QR code everywhere, just left a major SE Hosp. & 60% of people entering did not have a smart phone….so guess what…manual paper sign in

  7. Labor has presided over a great debacle but has seemingly stopped it getting worse.

    The Liberals have made fools of themselves with their tantrums about the lockdown.

    All in all I’d say Labor has lost 2-3 points this year.

  8. From Murray Watt

    “Scott Morrison has had time to orchestrate three separate daggy dad PR stunts at Bunnings during the Victorian lockdown.

    He still hasn’t found time to thank Victorians for their sacrifices in fighting the COVID-19 second wave for the nation.”

  10. HT Dr Bonham..

    #Ipsos online poll Vic (state)

    Andrews net +19 (52-33)
    O’Brien net -24 (15-39)
    Preferred Premier (skews to incumbents, but not this much) Andrews leads 53-18

    Not sure if this is the one where there will apparently be voting intention results.

    #springst

  16. sprocket_ @ #753 Monday, October 26th, 2020 – 5:11 pm

    From the Ipsos poll….

    ‘Only 15 per cent approved of Opposition Leader Michael O’Brien’s performance during the pandemic. His approval rating among even Coalition supporters surveyed was just 27 per cent.’

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/andrews-support-strong-but-liberal-leader-floundering-poll-20201026-p568kz.html

    I’m guessing the TPP for the Libs is very, very ordinary.

  17. Morrison has at last put out a statement in which do gives no recognition to the success of the Victorian government.

    “The Commonwealth Government welcomes the announcement by the Victorian Premier to ease restrictions from 11.59pm on Tuesday.

    Victorians have worked hard and sacrificed a lot to get to this point. We thank them for their patience and perseverance.

    Today’s announcement is a reflection of the dedication and effort of Victorians – taking the next step to reopen Victorian society and the state’s economy.

    After a long winter, there is light at the end of the tunnel for Victorians.

    As we said yesterday – Victorians have made great progress in reducing the rate of COVID-19 infections from the second wave outbreak in Victoria.

    The new National Framework to reopen by Christmas is a clear and transparent, three step national plan which provides the Australian community and businesses with a way forward where Australians can live and work in a COVID Normal Australia, ensuring that we maintain strong health protections and minimise job losses and mental health impacts.

    Under the new ‘National Framework’ released last week, Victoria is now moving towards Step 1 – an important step on the pathway to COVID Normal.

    Australia has been a world leader in fighting the virus to save lives and to save livelihoods and with today’s announcement, we look forward to Victoria continuing to make progress on the path to reopening and joining the rest of the country at Steps 2 and 3 in the national plan.

    It will be important for the Victorian Government to provide even more clarity to Victorians in the coming days and where restrictions do not have a health basis that they are removed quickly.

    We congratulate Victorians – this was the announcement that they were expecting and one they have worked hard to achieve.

    It is important for Victoria to safely open and stay safely open.

    The Prime Minister and Premiers Berejiklian, Marshall and Andrews will continue to take advice regarding hard border restrictions.

    The Commonwealth Government will continue to support Victoria through this crisis.”

  18. Shellbell, this gives an indication of what Liberal voters think..

    ‘Labor voters were significantly more likely to be happy with the state government’s response (73 per cent were satisfied, compared with 29 per cent of Coalition voters and 56 per cent of Greens voters).’

  20. This guy reading the room…

    ‘Mike Trickett, one of the participants in the Ipsos survey, said he was a swinging voter who would now vote for Mr Andrews.

    Mr Trickett, a 76-year-old retiree from Herne Hill in Geelong, believed the lockdown and measures such as compulsory mask wearing had brought the virus under control, although he said they possibly should have been implemented earlier.

    “I believe Dan Andrews is doing a very good job under a great deal of pressure from those who want to open up the state,” Mr Trickett said.

    “I think Michael O’Brien has done himself no favours with his harping and carping in the background and offering absolutely no alternatives. That alone has turned me off him and his Liberal colleagues.”

  21. sprocket_ @ #708 Monday, October 26th, 2020 – 4:11 pm

    ‘Only 15 per cent approved of Opposition Leader Michael O’Brien’s performance during the pandemic. His approval rating among even Coalition supporters surveyed was just 27 per cent.’

    Hmm. The past tense is a overly optimistic. Well done and shovels full of gratitude to Victoria, but this isn’t over. I wish it was. Even if this thing evolves to be less dangerous we need a vaccine. For now though, very well done Victoria. You’ve shown the way.

  22. Late Riser says:
    Monday, October 26, 2020 at 3:55 pm
    Socrates @ #590 Monday, October 26th, 2020 – 12:36 pm

    Late Riser

    “But I do have a problem with this and all other forecaster’s models. As far as I can see no forecasts account for the opinions of early voters at the time they voted. ”

    When polled, respondents who say they have already voted are treated as likely voters.

    The final results should not vary with the mode by which votes are cast, but rather by whether they are cast at all and whether they’re counted.

  24. lizzie @ #705 Monday, October 26th, 2020 – 4:51 pm

    Rachel has argued all afternoon that NSW doesn’t use pen and paper for records and wouldn’t accept Dan’s word.

    @mikeaubrey2
    ·Watching Andrews presser again today & listening to Rachel in particular trying for gotcha, for her information NSW does not have QR code everywhere, just left a major SE Hosp. & 60% of people entering did not have a smart phone….so guess what…manual paper sign in

    As a person living in NSW and circulating in my community a lot I can safely say that there are plenty of shops which do NOT use the QR code method of tracking customers, as the Op Shop I work in does not, and a large number of venues and shops that use the QR code methodology and pen and paper for people who do not know how to use the QR code or their phone doesn’t support it. So to say that NSW doesn’t use pen and paper recording is simply untruthful.

    But what do you expect from a News Corpse shrew, dressed up as a journalist?

  25. The Victorian Ipsos poll was probably done at the same time as the NSW poll that found good support for Gladys (or they were part of the same poll). However the same poll gave Barilaro only 18% approval.

    Politically and personally, Gladys Berejiklian has had her best year and her worst.

    The Premier’s popularity is high on the back of her competent handling of the pandemic.

    She is seen as having skilfully steered NSW through the stormy waters of COVID-19, with the only real blip the Ruby Princess cruise ship debacle which ultimately did not damage her credibility.

    Critically, almost three-quarters of voters surveyed for a Herald and Nine News Ipsos poll say they are happy with how her government has managed the pandemic, giving Berejiklian a personal approval rating of 63 per cent.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/berejiklian-is-still-extremely-popular-but-her-year-will-not-end-on-a-high-20201025-p568ci.html

    SMH headline:
    IPSOS POLL
    Barilaro’s approval rating dips below 20 per cent
    John Barilaro is under pressure.
    NSW Nationals leader John Barilaro has an approval rating of just 18 per cent.
    by Alexandra Smith

  26. sprocket_ says:
    Monday, October 26, 2020 at 5:08 pm
    HT Dr Bonham..

    #Ipsos online poll Vic (state)

    Andrews net +19 (52-33)
    O’Brien net -24 (15-39)
    Preferred Premier (skews to incumbents, but not this much) Andrews leads 53-18

    Not sure if this is the one where there will apparently be voting intention results.

    #springst

    Incompetent opposition party punished for politicising a pandemic. Idiots. Trumpy fools.

  28. Late Riser @ #720 Monday, October 26th, 2020 – 5:30 pm

    sprocket_ @ #708 Monday, October 26th, 2020 – 4:11 pm

    ‘Only 15 per cent approved of Opposition Leader Michael O’Brien’s performance during the pandemic. His approval rating among even Coalition supporters surveyed was just 27 per cent.’

    Hmm. The past tense is a overly optimistic. Well done and shovels full of gratitude to Victoria, but this isn’t over. I wish it was. Even if this thing evolves to be less dangerous we need a vaccine. For now though, very well done Victoria. You’ve shown the way.

    You may be interested in reading this good news story about a potential treatment/vaccine for COVID-19. It’s inventor is all of 14 years of age:

    Anika Chebrolu just discovered a potential covid-19 treatment. She’s 14.
    She won $25,000 and America’s top young scientist prize

    https://www.thelily.com/anika-chebrolu-just-discovered-a-potential-covid-19-treatment-shes-14/

  32. C@tmomma, thanks. I read about her achievement a few days ago. There’s an algorithm that anyone can use. She used it skilfully. Well done her!

  33. sprocket_ @ #710 Monday, October 26th, 2020 – 2:11 pm

    From the Ipsos poll….

    ‘Only 15 per cent approved of Opposition Leader Michael O’Brien’s performance during the pandemic. His approval rating among even Coalition supporters surveyed was just 27 per cent.’

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/andrews-support-strong-but-liberal-leader-floundering-poll-20201026-p568kz.html

    I wonder how many would know the difference between him and Tim Smith?

  34. So a female reporter asked how many of Victoria contact tracers are outsourced

    Answer: 100% initially contract given to HelloWorld
    Now might include Serco & ADF

    What choice to Victoria have when it started pandemic with a gutted DHHS which was only good for letting contracts. Thanks Kennett!

    Perhaps Dan will rebuild the public service!

    Noticed then Jeroen Weimar, who I consider to be an unflappable spin doctor, couldn’t take the heat. Those journalists are ferocious

  35. Call Noah. Wallis Lakes 274mm in 7 hours

    We’ve been living it Shellbell. We are at Smith’s Lake, essentially the southern, rainy end of Wallis Lake. We’re used to heavy rain here due to quirks in the local geography, but this is ridiculous.

    Local reading now exceeds 300mm since 10.30am. Last big rain was in March, 600mm in three days. Lake went from empty to just under full.

    * House across the street has been flooded after an embankment gave way,
    * Our driveway is unusable (washed away at street level, exposing stormwater drainpipes),
    * Trees and branches down everywhere,
    * House under construction next door has been flooded at all levels,
    * New “lakes” everywhere,
    * Lakes Way was closed briefly, twice,

    Good day to be inside Photoshopping.

  39. This is third attempt to post

    Watched the first 45 min of press conference

    Interesting exchange between Rachel Blaxendale asking a question about NSW Covid testing without understanding the detail of what she was asking and Dan Andrews not understanding what she was asking either.

    Rachel should have been asking why does NSW capture patient details before conducting test.
    Dan answered that Salesforce software is world beating in managing Covid positive people. It was recommended by chief scientist Alan Finkel, degree in computer science (not information systems). Victoria’s response is backed up by NSA AI software to parse conversations to find linkages

    Well let me put on my rusty IT hat

    When I was Covid tested in NSW last week the test was conducted after my details had been entered on an iPad and cross checked to Medicare database. Perhaps Vic does not have access to Medicare database. Then I was given a piece of paper with the serial number of my test and I was told to use my phone to enter my details to a website if I wanted my results ASAP
    IE the data collection took place before testing
    I think in Vic data is batched before being manually entered in a data centre, so Vic concentrates on entering positive test results first
    My results took 28 hours to come back

    NSW could have this high tech front end and then still batch and manually enter the tested persons data

  42. Note that all this rain will soon encourage rapid growth in vegetation, which will then become tinder dry very quickly once the weather warms up for good for the end of Spring and Summer. A matter which Back Burning before this period can only partially compensate for and act as a preventative of upcoming bushfires.

    We need to not become complacent about the potential threat of bushfires again.

  44. And for all those twits like mundo and south who decry Albanese’s performance as Opposition Leader, can they just for once give themselves a reality check and realise that Anthony Albanese doesn’t have the benefit of the sort of media megaphone that Scott Morrison and the Coalition do. As a result he is in the position of virtually being that tree that falls in the forest but nobody hears it fall. Nor does Labor have the sort of money at their disposal to blanket the nation with ads about their political opponents the way Clive Palmer does, nor their hands on the keys that open the Treasury that enables them to put together reams of expensive feel-good ads about themselves the way the federal Coalition does. Not that I expect the PB Jeremiahs to take any notice of this salient reality but I would have at least expected an acknowledgement of these facts when they bowl up their latest platitudinous criticism Of Albanese, as south has not done today. Again.

  45. C@tmomma @ #744 Monday, October 26th, 2020 – 6:00 pm

    And for all those twits like mundo and south who decry Albanese’s performance as Opposition Leader, can they just for once give themselves a reality check and realise that Anthony Albanese doesn’t have the benefit of the sort of media megaphone that Scott Morrison and the Coalition do. As a result he is in the position of virtually being that tree that falls in the forest but nobody hears it fall. Nor does Labor have the sort of money at their disposal to blanket the nation with ads about their political opponents the way Clive Palmer does, nor their hands on the keys that open the Treasury that enables them to put together reams of expensive feel-good ads about themselves the way the federal Coalition does. Not that I expect the PB Jeremiahs to take any notice of this salient reality but I would have at least expected an acknowledgement of these facts when they bowl up their latest platitudinous criticism Of Albanese, as south has not done today. Again.

    All of which has been true of every Labor opposition leader since … well … forever.

    Doesn’t seem to have stopped some of them winning.

    But it sure seems to have stopped Albo 🙁

  46. #Ipsos online poll Vic (state)

    Andrews net +19 (52-33)
    O’Brien net -24 (15-39)
    Preferred Premier (skews to incumbents, but not this much) Andrews leads 53-18

    Not sure if this is the one where there will apparently be voting intention results.

    #springst twitter.com/ClayLucas/stat…

  48. Zerlo @ 6:17 pm
    Next Victorian Election will be interesting.

    Every Victorian election is more or less “interesting”. However, the next one is two years away. Are you unaware of the adage that a week is a long time in politics?

  49. P1

    All of which has been true of every Labor opposition leader since … well … forever.

    Doesn’t seem to have stopped some of them winning.

    But it sure seems to have stopped Albo

    It has never been this bad.
    Fairfax is no more – it’s run by Costello – obviously a blatant Liberal supporter
    Sky is now broadcast over the regions via WINTV
    ABC has been starved into submission, & recalcitrant reporters removed.

    Stokes, Costello, ABC & Murdoch (SCAM) media now sing from the same political songsheet
    I repeat – it has never been this bad.

  50. Corio @ #749 Monday, October 26th, 2020 – 6:21 pm

    Zerlo @ 6:17 pm
    Next Victorian Election will be interesting.

    Every Victorian election is more or less “interesting”. However, the next one is two years away. Are you unaware of the adage that a week is a long time in politics?

    Morrison goes before him. Are you aware of the adage that Opposition is a long time in politics.

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