Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

A middlingly good reaction to the budget according to Newspoll, which does not record significant changes on voting intention or leadership approval from three weeks ago.

The latest Newspoll in The Australian has the Coalition leading 52-48, out from 51-49 last time, from primary votes of Coalition 44% (up one), Labor 34% (steady), Greens 11% (down one) and One Nation 3% (steady). Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are unchanged at 65% approval and 31% disapproval, while Anthony Albanese is steady on 39% approval and up three on disapproval to 43%. Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister nonetheless narrows slightly, from 59-27 to 57-28.

The poll shows a broadly favourable response to the budget, which is rated good for the economy by 42% and bad by 20%, compared with 44% and 18% last year – although a lot more of the favourable response is merely quite good (35% compared with 29% last year) rather than extremely good (7% compared with 15%). Twenty-six per cent expect it will make them better off financially compared with 23% for worse off and 51% for uncommitted, which is less strong than last year (34% better off and 19% worse off) but fairly strong by historical standards.

Troublingly for Labor, 54% expressed more trust in “a Coalition government led by Scott Morrison” to “guide Australia’s recovery” compared with 32% for “a Labor government led by Anthony Albanese”, and only 33% felt Labor would have done a better job on the budget compared with 49% for a worse job. This compares with 37% and 45% last year and is their weakest net result since the Coalition came to power in 2013, although it’s within the error margin of 2015, 2016 and 2017.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1527.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,240 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. BSA Bob @ #837 Tuesday, October 13th, 2020 – 8:47 am

    This is already commented on, but I caught the tail end of Q&A last night. Albo lucky to get a word in against the presenter who seemed to regard it as his duty to interrupt as often as possible.

    Why did Albo let him? Why didn’t he say ‘Hamish, if you keep interrupting me I may as well not be here because I can’t get a word in edgewise’
    I would have.
    Why can’t Labor stand up for themselves. Why?
    Why do they just let this shit show roll on? Are they a reforming party or not?

  2. Scott @ #850 Tuesday, October 13th, 2020 – 8:57 am

    NSW (libs/nats) hired private security Guards
    S.A (libs)hired private security Guards
    Tas (libs) hired private security Guards
    Qld hired private security Guards
    Vic hired private security Guards
    W.A hired private security Guards

    Could it be that both Lib/natand Laor state governments did not trust the competency of Morrison and his cronies ,

    ‘NSW (libs/nats) hired private security Guards
    S.A (libs)hired private security Guards
    Tas (libs) hired private security Guards
    Qld hired private security Guards
    Vic hired private security Guards
    W.A hired private security Guards’
    Mr Andrews said. (not yet. Why not)

  3. Vogon Poet says:
    Tuesday, October 13, 2020 at 8:58 am
    By reporting the Freckle to the QEC, are the LNP pre-emptively dumping the election loser ?
    —————–

    Tim Mander the next leader of the LNP?

  4. C@t

    OK. So it’s patience I need. This particular fault has never happened to me before, although I get “thrown off” about once a month.

  5. mundo says:
    Tuesday, October 13, 2020 at 9:01 am

    Mr Andrews said. (not yet. Why not)

    ———–

    I dont know if any other premier said why they used private guards either

  6. Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol.

    This item revives old memories

    Emily Kenway found out the hard way that caring for dying relatives is almost impossible in our society.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/12/caring-dying-relatives-society-care-work-communities

    Even if there are family members within helping distance – work and family often prevent any meaningful assistance so that the 3 A.M. start time devolves to the inhouse carer.

    Worth a read and a weep.

    Just a not on the $67.25 carers allowance. Pitiful though it may be.Should one be of an age – one can be offered a change from Carer Payment to Aged Care. You won’t lose said the arsehole on the Centrelink end of the phone. This was at a time when the benevolent Gummint offered $600 as a payment to carers to enhance re election prospects. Being of unsound mind I agreed. I didn’t vote for the arseholes then and I don’t now.

    I takes years to get over/recover from a labour of love as described by Emily Kenway. In the process of isolation one can lose friends and family as well and depending on age, health and psychological makeup remain isolated, yea – even until the end of time.

    Here endeth the lesson.

  7. Joseph R. Biden Jr. holds a significant lead in the pivotal states of Michigan and Wisconsin, with President Trump so far failing to retain the overwhelming advantage he enjoyed among white voters there in 2016, according to surveys from The New York Times and Siena College on Monday.

    Over all, Mr. Biden led Mr. Trump by eight percentage points in Michigan, 48 percent to 40 percent, among likely voters. His lead in Wisconsin was slightly larger, 51 percent to 41 percent.

    The new results, along with recent Times/Siena surveys from elsewhere in the Northern battlegrounds, suggest that the president has not yet managed to reassemble his winning coalition across the region. He faces modest but significant defections among white and independent voters, while facing a groundswell of opposition from those who voted for a minor-party candidate or didn’t vote at all in 2016.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/12/upshot/polls-wisconsin-michigan-election.html

  8. lizzie @ #855 Tuesday, October 13th, 2020 – 9:03 am

    C@t

    OK. So it’s patience I need. This particular fault has never happened to me before, although I get “thrown off” about once a month.

    I have written quite a bit about this young lady.

    Try turning off any Add Blocker

    I have just check this with Chrome and turned off Adblock so that the Login buttons returned.

    You can use the C+ adblock safely with Poll Bludger.

  9. Terminator @ #854 Tuesday, October 13th, 2020 – 8:02 am

    Ch7 reckons the LNP have denied referring Deb and that she is now in the clear. West Australian has only story I can find
    https://thewest.com.au/politics/lnp-bid-to-reignite-qld-election-campaign-ng-s-2033567

    Try here:
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-13/lnp-crisis-as-deb-frecklington-referred-to-election-watchdog/12748400

    ABC Investigations / By Josh Robertson
    Posted 3hours ago, updated 17minutes ago

  10. @jonkudelka
    ·
    5m
    What if Donald Trump is in fact a perfect physical specimen? The pinnacle of human evolution? Well done everyone, you may now devolve back to your prokaryotic forms.

  11. Scott.
    But who made the decision to hire them in Victoria ?
    Creeping assumption has been overtaken by events, so surely the inquiry will not go with that explanation.

  12. Re adblocker problems, some browsers (like the latest Edge update) include ad block settings. In the case of Edge I found that the log in re-appeared after I reduced the privacy settings.

  13. Josh Jordan@NumbersMuncher·
    4h
    Crucial details from Siena on why Biden leads today. From their 6 Midwest swing state polls:

    Among “vote switchers” from 2016, Biden leads by 43 points.

    Among third party voters from 2016, Biden leads by 34.

    Among registered voters that did NOT vote in 2016, Biden leads by 14.

  14. KayJay

    I’m sorry I wasn’t paying attention. :bows head and bites bottom lip:

    Your post on the all embracing nature of caring brought forth useless sympathy from me. Life becomes focused on the significant other.

  15. Taylormade says:
    Tuesday, October 13, 2020 at 9:11 am
    Scott.
    But who made the decision to hire them in Victoria ?
    Creeping assumption has been overtaken by events, so surely the inquiry will not go with that explanation.

    ————
    Yes but why only Andrews ?
    Shouldn’t the other states premiers be asked the same question , why they bypass the federal government , it is because they lacked confidence in Morrison and his cronies being in charge.

    NSW had troubles with the private security firms as well

  16. Will Gladys survive ? The Rupertarium hasn’t gone full rampage yet. Front page of the Telegraph (put an h at the start of the address below)

    ttp://mfeeds.news.com.au/smedia/TELEGRAPH/NCTELE_1_2020_10_13_thumb_big.jpg

  17. Player One @ #855 Tuesday, October 13th, 2020 – 9:02 am

    C’mon Australia! Only second in the G20 for ecosystem collapse and biodiversity decline? And to South Africa???? Oh, the humiliation!

    https://www.swissre.com/media/news-releases/nr-20200923-biodiversity-and-ecosystems-services.html

    Surely we can do better than that? We should be the best in the world at this stuff!

    Shovel that coal! Frack that gas!

    Ozzie! Ozzie! Ozzie! Oi! Oi! Oi!

    Give it time P1
    Scrooter and the punters who prefer him have got to have something to shoot for.

  18. How many times do we have to do this?
    The question isn’t about hiring private security guards; it’s about the governance processes in place.
    Compared to the other states, the commission evidence is that Victoria’s governance was shambolic

  19. poroti @ #873 Tuesday, October 13th, 2020 – 9:19 am

    Will Gladys survive ? The Rupertarium hasn’t gone full rampage yet. Front page of the Telegraph (put an h at the start of the address below)

    ttp://mfeeds.news.com.au/smedia/TELEGRAPH/NCTELE_1_2020_10_13_thumb_big.jpg

    Haven’t gone a quarter rampage.
    Gladys can thank her lucky stars she’s not a Labor Premier.

  20. ‘Pure Evil’: New photo of maskless ‘patient zero’ Trump surrounded by Secret Service goes viral

    A photo (below) of a recently coronavirus-infected President Donald Trump – maskless and making his way to board Air Force One – is going viral on social media.

    The President is currently on his way to Sanford, Florida, where he will hold a MAGA rally Monday night

    The recklessness of Trump’s presidency, summarized in one unbelievable picture.
    — Matt McDermott (@mattmfm) October 12, 2020

    Even if you have never read a single tweet or heard a single one of his Tinkerbell magical thinking lies – this photo alone tells you he cares about no one or nothing but himself.
    — Katherine Fugate (@katherinefugate) October 12, 2020

  21. Spot on.

    Stephen Spencer
    @sspencer_63
    ·
    1h
    This is the point. She was not just some woman who made a bad choice of relationship. She was premier and was in possession of information about corrupt conduct she failed to pass on to authorities to protect her reputation.
    Quote Tweet

    Jodi McKay
    @JodiMcKayMP
    · 12h
    Forget Ms Berejiklian’s personal relationship with Daryl Maguire.

    What matters is that Ms Berejiklian knew of McGuire’s dirty deals & did nothing. When Maguire resigned in July 2018, she should have disclosed her relationship & told ICAC what she knew. She did not.

  22. Victoria @ #882 Tuesday, October 13th, 2020 – 9:26 am

    Spot on.

    Stephen Spencer
    @sspencer_63
    ·
    1h
    This is the point. She was not just some woman who made a bad choice of relationship. She was premier and was in possession of information about corrupt conduct she failed to pass on to authorities to protect her reputation.
    Quote Tweet

    Jodi McKay
    @JodiMcKayMP
    · 12h
    Forget Ms Berejiklian’s personal relationship with Daryl Maguire.

    What matters is that Ms Berejiklian knew of McGuire’s dirty deals & did nothing. When Maguire resigned in July 2018, she should have disclosed her relationship & told ICAC what she knew. She did not.

    And that’s why Mundo’s $5 is safe.

  23. Victoria

    It’s pure chance whether you succeed or not. Some are just “lucky”.

    @PeterWMurphy1
    ·
    2h
    On #QandA last night, host Hamish Macdonald asked Albo for evidence that #SkyNews After Dark was biased against Labor!!! What’s next? Where’s the evidence that the Pope’s Catholic? #auspol

  24. US voting varies by State. In Washington State (abbrev WA) voting is mail in. No lines. And there is an email option if you’re “overseas” or in the armed forces. (Take a photo with your phone and email that.) I voted 2 weeks ago. I received an official thank you email within minutes.

  25. Lizzie
    What other factors should the media be looking at?
    That public health in Victoria was notoriously underfunded?
    That the Department of Health and Human etc. was top heavy with bureaucrats but with little ability to change procedural matters?

  26. lizzie @ #888 Tuesday, October 13th, 2020 – 9:30 am

    Victoria

    It’s pure chance whether you succeed or not. Some are just “lucky”.

    @PeterWMurphy1
    ·
    2h
    On #QandA last night, host Hamish Macdonald asked Albo for evidence that #SkyNews After Dark was biased against Labor!!! What’s next? Where’s the evidence that the Pope’s Catholic? #auspol

    The Hamster soiled himself live on air with that dumbarse question.
    He is not to be taken seriously ever again.

  27. Lizzie

    That is too funny. Sky after dark is far right wing nuttery. It is that bad.
    I have no idea how they are reporting Gladys Berejiklian matter. I dont have the energy at the moment. Lol!

  28. Oakeshott Country @ #874 Tuesday, October 13th, 2020 – 6:22 am

    How many times do we have to do this?
    The question isn’t about hiring private security guards; it’s about the governance processes in place.
    Compared to the other states, the commission evidence is that Victoria’s governance was shambolic

    How do you know this?

    Have the other States held their own commissions?

  29. The use of private security guards was probably the default setting. The alternatives would have been Police, Corrections officers or defence force personnel. None have any particular expertise in infection control or public health. Each of the alternatives would have had to have been taken off their normal duties. In the case of police, they had the additional task of policing Covid restrictions in the wider community.

    An argument in favour of the Police and ADF sometimes raised is that they are professionals. They would have been more respected by quarantinees. Their directions would have been more likely to be obeyed. Police in particular had powers of arrest. It would have meant treating quarantinees like prisoners.

    No doubt the use of private security guards seemed like a good idea at the time.

  30. O C

    I have no doubt that VicHealth has problems. Unfortunately some of the other factors (low, casual wages; ethnicity) might lead into racist accusations which I know Andrews and Sutton have been careful to avoid. Also, I would like to go back to the non-existent planning for a pandemic from 2019. This was a federal+state matter.

  31. Just people talking earnestly about football….have to turn it off or I’ll lose the will to live…..check back later…..you owe me big time Vic… 🙂

  32. Steve777

    In the “towers lockdown”, there was a great deal of umbrage taken at the use of police as security guards. Sometimes you can’t win.

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