Groom at the top

Eight LNP candidates nominate to fill John McVeigh’s vacancy in the Queensland seat of Groom; and the federal government says it will act to retain the Northern Territory’s two seats in the House of Representatives.

Miscellaneous developments from the past week:

• The Toowoomba Chronicle reports eight candidates have nominated for Liberal National Party preselection for the Groom by-election, of whom the front-runners are Rebecca Vonhoff, a Toowoomba councillor; Garth Hamilton, a businessman; Sara Hales, former general manager of Wellcamp Airport; and Shane Charles, former Toowoomba and Surat Basin Enterprise chief executive. Also in the field are “Elders Rural Services’ Andrew Meara … race car driver Daniel Cassidy, Australian Lot Feeders president Bryce Camm and Doctor David van Gend”, the latter being a firebrand social conservative whom the outgoing member, John McVeigh, defeated for preselection when he succeeded Ian Macfarlane in 2016. Notably absent from the list is Senator Matt Canavan, despite a decision by the state executive to leave it to the branch membership whether the seat should go to a Liberal, as it has since 1988, or a National. The date of the by-election is yet to be confirmed.

• Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack said on Thursday that the government would introduce a bill that will ensure the Northern Territory retains its two seats in the House of Representatives, though by what mechanism is unclear. A Labor-sponsored bill currently before the Senate provides a crude guarantee of a second Northern Territory seat (without extending the courtesy to the Australian Capital Territory, albeit that its population is such that the question does not arise), but when the same issue emerged before the 2004 election, it was dealt with through a technical tweak to the population statistics used to determine seat entitlements. The bottom line is that the Labor-held seats of Solomon and Lingiari, created when the territory first became entitled to a second seat in 2001 and respectively covering Darwin and the rest of the territory, will continue to exist despite enrolments of less than two-thirds the national norm. It also means the House of Representatives

• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters is conducting an inquiry into the “future conduct of elections operating during times of emergency situations”, encompassing “restrictions arising from a health pandemic”, “access to polling places during times of natural disasters”, “other potential drivers of social restrictions, such as future civil unrest, or international conflict” and “alternative voting methods including early, remote and postal voting”.

• The West Australian has a Painted Dog Research poll of 932 respondents in WA showing 64% want the state’s hard border maintained beyond December, with 36% favouring a resumption of travel with the eastern states.Hou

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

590 comments on “Groom at the top”

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  1. From Hartcher’s article:

    [‘Longer term, Albanese said a Labor government would ask the Productivity Commission to design a system to allow all families access to a 90 per cent subsidy. That set him up for this boast: “Labor created Medicare – universal health care. We created the NDIS – universal
    support for people with disability. We created superannuation – universal retirement savings for workers. And – if I’m prime minister – I will make quality, affordable childcare universal too.”]

    What a record! And with the proposed 90% child-care subsidy, Labor’s back in the race. And were it to promise a substantial injection of cash into aged-care, Morrison may well be in deep nitrogenous waste, his tax cuts being inconsequential – $1050 pa for most. I dip my lid to Albo for keeping his powder dry; a rumoured nervous Caucus should now be placated.

  2. lizzie @ #46 Saturday, October 10th, 2020 – 9:19 am

    KayJay

    That is a very naughty use of the word “fulsome”. But you are not alone. It’s trending. :sigh:

    How to make amends. David Attenborough recently said he likes spiders so shown below is an excellent member of the species.

    A repeat of a some time ago post – I plotted the extinction of some of my fellow workers by capturing and breeding “Daddy Long Legs” spiders and releasing them to perform poison injections on my intended victims. The scheme came to nothing.

    What does it all mean – not much – just like my posts. Toodles. 😇

    P.S. I’ve never previously been trendy. 😇

  3. Philip Adams interviewed the splendid Sarah Smarsh (journo, author) on Wednesday. Born and raised in rural Kansas she has a wonderful retort to Clintons “deplorables” and explanation of how/why they vote how they vote without recourse to political speak terms like “tribal”, “identity” and “culture” (although I think she used the word culture once). A simple, precise, easy to understand and kind explanation that I found refreshing and illuminating – the theme is well known, the language more incisive.

  4. The Ukraine nonsense could unearth something actually momentous

    I think that’s pretty much a given. It doesn’t have to have any substantial basis in the real world. Some piece of trivia could be beat up out of all proportion by the Noise Machine, or simply fabricated.

  5. Mavis @ #51 Saturday, October 10th, 2020 – 9:31 am

    From Hartcher’s article:

    [‘Longer term, Albanese said a Labor government would ask the Productivity Commission to design a system to allow all families access to a 90 per cent subsidy. That set him up for this boast: “Labor created Medicare – universal health care. We created the NDIS – universal
    support for people with disability. We created superannuation – universal retirement savings for workers. And – if I’m prime minister – I will make quality, affordable childcare universal too.”]

    What a record! And with the proposed 90% child-care subsidy, Labor’s back in the race. And were it to promise a substantial injection of cash into aged-care, Morrison may well be in deep nitrogenous waste, his tax cuts being inconsequential – $1050 pa for most. I dip my lid to Albo for keeping his powder dry; a rumoured nervous Caucus should now be placated.

    As Mundo has said on more than one ocassion in the past…it wouldn’t hurt if Labor delivered the odd history lesson so those who don’t know/forgot/never knew are reminded of just how much they have to thank Labor governments for.
    Albo et al should continue to pepper all future announcements/statements/commentary with golden oldies from Labor’s previous periods in government.
    Lord knows the hapless coalition have nothing to brag about.
    .
    .Nothing!#$%$@$%#@%$#!!!!

  7. And Lindsey Graham chickens out of his debate.

    The Friday night debate between Democrat Jaime Harrison and Republican Sen. Lindsey O. Graham, who are competing in a surprisingly tight Senate race in South Carolina, has been canceled because the senator declined to take a coronavirus test ahead of their meetup.

    Harrison demanded Thursday night that Graham get tested before the two meet again. When the two candidates were together for their first debate last weekend, Harrison set up a plexiglass barrier to protect himself from Graham, who’d earlier in the week been exposed to senators who tested positive.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2020/10/09/trump-biden-live-updates/

  8. Confessions @ #39 Saturday, October 10th, 2020 – 9:11 am

    poroti:

    There are several things that could happen in the next 25 days that could tip the race in Trump’s favour.

    – Biden could get sick
    – The Ukraine nonsense could unearth something actually momentous
    – Harris could say something that scares the pants off Republicans swaying towards Biden

    The third on this list is my great fear.

  11. Nate Silver@NateSilver538·
    41m
    Repeating myself and others here, but the reason Lindsey Graham won’t get tested despite having been exposed to many COVID+ people is because if he reveals a positive test and has to quarantine the Amy Coney Barrett nomination could get scuttled. There is no other logical reason.

  13. Look out Annastacia.

    Tegan George
    @tegangeorge
    ·
    29m
    Where there’s a will there’s a way. PM @ScottMorrisonMP joins the QLD election trail today after spending the past fortnight in the ACT.
    @10NewsFirstQLD
    #qldpol #auspol

  14. Morrison is now no longer able to sideline Labor as he has done by delaying Parliament and setting up the National Cabinet without including the Federal Opposition.

    I’d like some proof of this opinion.

  15. lizzie @ #63 Saturday, October 10th, 2020 – 8:48 am

    Look out Annastacia.

    Tegan George
    @tegangeorge
    ·
    29m
    Where there’s a will there’s a way. PM @ScottMorrisonMP joins the QLD election trail today after spending the past fortnight in the ACT.
    @10NewsFirstQLD
    #qldpol #auspol

    With Morrison turning up, hat’s an extra seat or two to Labor. I reckon Annastacia will be having a celebratory cup of tea.

  16. Vic:

    This just about sums it all up!

    LOLGOP@LOLGOP·
    18m
    I guess it’s a pretty good sign you’ve failed addressing a pandemic when you’d rather cancel a debate than take a Covid-19 test

  17. mundo:

    Saturday, October 10, 2020 at 9:37 am

    [‘Albo et al should continue to pepper all future announcements/statements/commentary with golden oldies from Labor’s previous periods in government.’]

    mundo’s right. It’s a pretty good record to boast about. Younger voters probably need a history lesson as to who was responsible for the great social reforms over the past 48 years.

  18. The constipated thought processes of the Coalition never fail to make me angry.

    The Coalition government’s federal budget allocated A$233.4 million to six Commonwealth-run national parks — but most will be spent on tourism infrastructure upgrades. What’s needed is more staff and equipment to restore, enrich and maintain natural ecosystems, and to secure our most iconic natural places.
    …
    Of the A$329.2 million allocated in the budget to protect iconic places, A$233.4 million (71%) is set aside for tourism infrastructure in non-World Heritage national parks in Australia.

    We calculate this provides about A$18,000 for every hectare of Booderee National Park and national parks on Christmas Island, Norfork Island and Pulu Keeling. Most of this will likely be spent on improving visitor amenities or ensuring nearby businesses can stay open, rather than directed to measures such as invasive species control or fire management.

    Australia’s 16 natural World Heritage sites will receive just A$33.5 million — less than the $40.6 million promised to maintain and restore historical sites across Sydney Harbour.

    A further $23.6 million was promised for compliance, enforcement and monitoring activities across Australia’s marine parks. Enforcing no-take marine protected areas improves species populations and biomass, but this funding boost is grossly inadequate. It equates to just 1 cent for every hectare of Commonwealth-run marine parks.

    It’s hard to see how these measures will prevent further ecosystem degradation or species extinctions, when conservation of Australia’s biodiversity heavily relies on protected areas.

    https://theconversation.com/how-much-the-budget-undervalued-conservation-16-world-heritage-sites-received-less-than-sydney-harbour-147663?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=bylinetwitterbutton

  19. mundo says:
    Saturday, October 10, 2020 at 9:40 am
    Confessions @ #39 Saturday, October 10th, 2020 – 9:11 am

    poroti:

    There are several things that could happen in the next 25 days that could tip the race in Trump’s favour.

    – Biden could get sick
    – The Ukraine nonsense could unearth something actually momentous
    – Harris could say something that scares the pants off Republicans swaying towards Biden

    The third on this list is my great fear.

    ==============

    Trump dying before the election worries me, I don’t think he’s over COVID-19. I think that President Pence could beat Biden.

  20. Mavis @ #67 Saturday, October 10th, 2020 – 9:57 am

    mundo’s right. It’s a pretty good record to boast about. Younger voters probably need a history lesson as to who was responsible for the great social reforms over the past 48 years.

    In my experience, younger voters aren’t much interested in history. They look almost exclusively forwards, not backwards.

    Consequently, you can engage them best by addressing the future, not the past.

    Especially when the future they see is so goddam frightening 🙁

  21. The Saturday Paper
    @SatPaper
    ·
    1m
    Multiple sources within the aged-care royal commission tell @SquigglyRick
    the 2020 budget is a thinly disguised rebuke of the inquiry’s work, “unsurprising but devastating” in its “arrogance”.

  24. Player One:

    Saturday, October 10, 2020 at 10:16 am

    [‘In my experience, younger voters aren’t much interested in history. They look almost exclusively forwards, not backwards.’]

    That might be right but it doesn’t hurt to inform younger voters on the basis that history’s a good guide to which party is best placed to put in place substantive policies for the future, not stop-gap measures that mean little, like, for instance, the paltry tax cuts. Moreover, I doubt very much that the young will be impressed with increased cost of a degree in the humanities.

  26. Isn’t the White House considered to be the People’s House and as such not to be used as a backdrop for overt political campaigning?

  27. Greg Jericho
    @GrogsGamut
    ·
    9m
    And yet here we are 6 years after the RC report was handed down, and still the lies get spun out about fires from pink batts. And I’d suspect most people don’t realise they are lies. I wonder how many journalists do as well?

    Shit reporting matters.

    ***

    And then the commissioner made perhaps the most damning statement about Australian journalism that I have ever read from an independent view:

    “The occurrence of fires does not appear to have been an issue of particular concern, other than to the media”

  28. Player One @ #70 Saturday, October 10th, 2020 – 10:16 am

    Mavis @ #67 Saturday, October 10th, 2020 – 9:57 am

    mundo’s right. It’s a pretty good record to boast about. Younger voters probably need a history lesson as to who was responsible for the great social reforms over the past 48 years.

    In my experience, younger voters aren’t much interested in history. They look almost exclusively forwards, not backwards.

    Consequently, you can engage them best by addressing the future, not the past.

    Especially when the future they see is so goddam frightening 🙁

    P1…in my experience as a teacher/lecturer/tutor I find young folk, especially those in their 30s and 40s find these things very interesting. Sometimes gobsmacking.
    An ex student in his early 40s, a Labor voter, was genuinely surprised that he didn’t know the PBS was introduced under Chifley in the 1940s.
    As I said earlier, it can’t hurt. Nothing to lose.

  29. mundo @ #78 Saturday, October 10th, 2020 – 10:46 am

    Player One @ #70 Saturday, October 10th, 2020 – 10:16 am

    Mavis @ #67 Saturday, October 10th, 2020 – 9:57 am

    mundo’s right. It’s a pretty good record to boast about. Younger voters probably need a history lesson as to who was responsible for the great social reforms over the past 48 years.

    In my experience, younger voters aren’t much interested in history. They look almost exclusively forwards, not backwards.

    Consequently, you can engage them best by addressing the future, not the past.

    Especially when the future they see is so goddam frightening 🙁

    P1…in my experience as a teacher/lecturer/tutor I find young folk, especially those in their 30s and 40s find these things very interesting. Sometimes gobsmacking.
    An ex student in his early 40s, a Labor voter, was genuinely surprised that he didn’t know the PBS was introduced under Chifley in the 1940s.
    As I said earlier, it can’t hurt. Nothing to lose.

    Not just younger voters Mavis.

  32. lizzie @ #77 Saturday, October 10th, 2020 – 10:42 am

    Greg Jericho
    @GrogsGamut
    ·
    9m
    And yet here we are 6 years after the RC report was handed down, and still the lies get spun out about fires from pink batts. And I’d suspect most people don’t realise they are lies. I wonder how many journalists do as well?

    Shit reporting matters.

    ***

    And then the commissioner made perhaps the most damning statement about Australian journalism that I have ever read from an independent view:

    “The occurrence of fires does not appear to have been an issue of particular concern, other than to the media”

    More history lessons required from Labor.
    This stuff matters.

  33. Victoria Police has laid the blame for the use of private security in quarantine hotels squarely at Premier Daniel Andrews’ door.
    ________________
    Right where it belongs.

  35. President Donald Trump had some choice words for Iran Friday, warning the Islamic Republic: “If you f— around with us, if you do something bad to us, we are going to do things to you that have never been done before.”

    Trump dropped the F-bomb on conservative commentator Rush Limbaugh’s live radio show while discussing Iranian support for U.S.-designated terrorist groups. While the word was censored on the slightly delayed radio broadcast, footage of Limbaugh in the studio kept the language intact. The FCC prohibits profanity during daylight hours when “there is a reasonable risk that children may be in the audience.”

    During his interview, Trump praised himself for withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal brokered under the Obama administration, saying the economic pressure that has since been placed on the country has hindered support for terrorist organizations such as Hamas “and all these other groups that cause the problem.”

  38. Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed a ceasefire in the ongoing conflict in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

    Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced the agreement just before 03:00 local time (01:00 BST), following 10 hours of talks in Moscow.

    The two countries will now enter “substantive” talks, he said.

    More than 300 people have died and thousands displaced since the latest violence in the long-running conflict broke out on 27 September.

    Nagorno-Karabakh is run by ethnic Armenians although it is officially part of Azerbaijan. The two former Soviet republics have blamed each other for the latest outbreak of violence – the worst in decades.

    Russia has a military base in Armenia and both are members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) alliance. But Moscow also has good relations with Azerbaijan.

  39. I don’t believe in any of that eschatological stuff about The End Times, The Second Coming, or the Anti-Christ, but…

    … whoever said that the Anti-Christ would be a major world leader, whose bad and immoral deeds were praised instead of condemned, who would be worshipped for his faults and all the rest, including narcissism and sociopathy, sure described Trumpism down to a “T”.

  42. “What have you got to hide?”

    “That might as well have been your first question,” answers Dan, “as that is what you’ve been working up to.”

    The reporter keeps interrupting before he finishes answering. Don’t know which female reporter this is.

  44. “Nick” says no one can have confidence in VicGov considering the headlines in the papers.
    Dan “I don’t govern according to headlines.”

  45. [‘The retailer’s iconic Christmas windows had been saved from COVID cancellation, continuing a 65-year tradition harking back to Myer’s 20th-century heyday. It was “something to celebrate,” lauded executive Geoff Ikin as the company announced the last-minute save.’]

    But I don’t think its business model will survive after posting a full-year loss of $172m.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/struggling-retailer-myer-searching-for-a-christmas-miracle-20201001-p560y0.html

  46. It’s difficult to link the submissions being made at the quarantine but it looks like Department versus Department.

    Counsel Assisting is going after Eccles with the Department of Cabinet defending himself based on his long service and Australian award.

    Plus there are submissions that the evidence is not strong enough to make an adverse finding which is not that an attractive argument when the inquiry is meant to have wide powers to get that evidence.

  47. Interesting to know the place of Vic police in emergency response.
    In NSW the police commissioner is the emergency commander. I know that in the early part of COVID there was some conflict until SHEOC (State Health Emergency Operational Command) was stood up and their respective roles established.

  48. Dandy Murray

    Campbell Newman says LNP wrong to treat him like ‘Voldemort’ ahead of election

    Poor CanJoh. All he needed to do to cure his ARDS (acute relevance deprivation syndrome) was drop a line to Qld. Labor. They would have been very happy to give him as much air play as he wishes.

  50. @LordofWentworth
    ·
    12h
    Dozens of super high calibre @abcnews qualifed journos leave, while political stooge Credlin presents herself as a self appointed journo

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