Newspoll: 50-50

Back to level pegging in Newspoll, as Scott Morrison cops a dent in his still healthy personal approval and preferred prime minister ratings.

After blowing out to 53-47 in favour of the Coalition two Newspolls ago, the latest result, courtesy of The Australian, has two-party preferred back at 50-50. The Coalition is down two on the primary vote to 41% and Labor is up three to 36%, with the Greens steady on 11% and One Nation down one to 3%. Similarly, Scott Morrison’s still-healthy personal ratings are down on the last three weeks ago, with approval at 64% (down four) and disapproval on 32% (up three). Anthony Albanese is up on both approval, by two points to 43%, and disapproval, by three points to 41%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is now 58-29, in from 60-25. The poll also includes a finding that “80 per cent of Australians support border ­closures if the health situation demands it”, which I’ll go into in greater detail when I see the full results.

UPDATE: The wording to the latter question was, “do you think premiers should have the authority to close their borders or restrict entry of Australians who live in other states”, which drew responses of 80% yes and 18% no. State breakdowns: 76-22 in New South Wales, 74-23 in Victoria, 84-15 in Queensland, 92-5 in South Australia and 91-7 in Western Australia, from respective samples of 475, 371, 311, 119 and 146. The overall sample of the poll was 1507, and it was conducted from Wednesday to Saturday.

UPDATE 2 (Tuesday): Today The Australian brings further findings on attitudes to the leaders, specifically that Scott Morrison is rated as experienced by 79% and Anthony Albanese by 63%; Morrison is reckoned to have a vision for Australia by 72% compared with 52% for Albanese; and that Morrison is rated arrogant by 46% and Albanese by 37%. In all three cases, Morrison’s ratings have improved by either 11% or 12% since the questions were last posed in December, which is fairly typical of such polling in closely tracking the leader’s overall approval rating.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,221 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. Which Calabrese is being referred to here? The one I remember was an unrepentant Labor supporter from a few years ago……………However, it is a common Italian name………

  5. Greensborough Growler says:
    Tuesday, September 1, 2020 at 8:08 pm

    “Bagging people who can’t defend themselves is as weak as piss, comrade.”

    If I’ve got the wrong guy I apologise but I am pretty sure William has more than enough grounds to ban him.

  6. And, in days of our weird celebrity baby names:

    Ed Sheeran and wife Cherry Seaborn welcome their first child
    On Tuesday, the singer-songwriter announced that he and his wife Cherry Seaborn had welcomed a baby girl named Lyra Antarctica Seaborn Sheeran.

  7. Frank just couldn’t control his emotions. That’s all.

    I think I’d rather that than Lars’ concern-trolling of C@tmomma or Bucephalus’ NSDAP Golden Badge pretensions.

  8. Buce
    I share your happiness for the Crows. Especially seeing that on Saturday the local footy comp minor round saw my team complete three seasons without aa win!

  9. since the young officer suspected my neatly dressed, well-spoken, late forty-something self of roaming the neighbourhood slashing car tyres.

    Bloody police with their profiling!

  10. Kinda disappointed about the Crows getting a win, TBH. I was at the point where the season is going so dismally, I wanted them to go for the perfect duck’s egg instead.

  11. Rational Leftist @ #1161 Tuesday, September 1st, 2020 – 8:31 pm

    Kinda disappointed about the Crows getting a win, TBH. I was at the point where the season is going so dismally, I wanted them to go for the perfect duck’s egg instead.

    My theory is that there are probably a few guys looking for new clubs next year and they needed to put on a show for prospective suitors.

  12. “@SashaJohnsonBLM
    The white man will not be our equal but our slave
    History is changing
    No justice no peace
    #BLM #Brixton #BLMUK”

    Shame that Twitter have suspended the account for some reason. Can’t think why.

  14. Did we get a medical update on Senator Carr?

    My understanding Buce is that he had a brief interaction with Senator Cash.
    That would explain well, anything really.

  15. bill says:
    Tuesday, September 1, 2020 at 8:48 pm

    “My understanding Buce is that he had a brief interaction with Senator Cash.
    That would explain well, anything really.”

    Why are you sexist?

    That’s how it works? No?

  18. rhwombat @ #1057 Tuesday, September 1st, 2020 – 5:37 pm

    ItzaDream @ #1581 Tuesday, September 1st, 2020 – 12:18 pm

    Peter Baume, retired gastroenterologist and Liberal parliamentarian, weighs in on the Aged care debacle.

    It was a mistake to privatise aged care. Private providers who operate for profit too often have scarce regard for the welfare or needs of older people.

    https://johnmenadue.com/peter-baume-it-was-a-mistake-to-privatise-aged-care/?mc_cid=93258ecf9e&mc_eid=a7c18d3845

    We have a society where people no longer try to keep the elderly living with them. Smaller houses don’t have space for another generation. Children might not even live in the same district as their elderly parents. If they do remain with their children, they are in loving families, there is a healthy inter-generational mix, while the experience of life that the elderly bring is valuable. Many less-developed societies continue to do this.

    I touched on this aspect the other day.

    Peter was that now mythical beast, a true liberal. He (as a Parliamentarian in Frazer’s Cabinet, rather than a Gastroenterologist) was largely responsible for eliminating the peculiarly Australian disease of analgesic nephropathy – by regulating the local Pharma sharks out of existence. He couldn’t stand that evil suburban solicitor Howard.

    I was his resident at RNSH. Those were the days of pretty close contact and genuine caring tutoring, especially from the likes of his gentlemanly self. I saw him toward the end of last year at a concert in the Sydney Town Hall and had a pleasant chat about old times. He had noticeably aged (we both thought). Mrs B was delightful, even feigning (I suspect) remembrance.

  19. Nate Silver
    @NateSilver538
    ·
    2m
    Replying to
    @NateSilver538
    Morning Consult’s national numbers are also interesting in that they initially showed Biden’s lead falling to 6 in a one-day poll just after the convention but it has now bounced back to 8. Would possibly suggest that the RNC helped Trump but maybe not the Kenosha news cycle.

  20. The Victorian Police have certainly changed their tune in relation to protests. Be interesting to see if they maintain it until the next BLM protest.

  21. Just got robopolled. The first time ever.

    Questions on state voting intention, better premier, better party to handle a range of issues, satisfaction with WA govt handling of coronavirus, preferred PM and previous voting in both state and federal elections.

    No clue who was polling as they didn’t say.

  22. Bushfire Bill says:
    Tuesday, September 1, 2020 at 8:24 pm
    Frank just couldn’t control his emotions. That’s all.
    ___________________________________________
    I think I’d rather that than Lars’ concern-trolling of C@tmomma or Bucephalus’ NSDAP Golden Badge pretensions.
    ___________________________________________
    What a shame you choose to be so provocative. Get thee behind me!

  23. From Axios, news of the ‘Red Mirage’:

    With mail-in voting predicted to be running at 60% by Dems / 19% by Repugs, the national chart will be initially considerably redder on the first night that at the end of the tally (and god knows when that will be), “imagine what it’ll be like in America, with its polarization and misinformation, if the vote tally swings wildly in the days after Nov. 3.”

    https://www.axios.com/bloomberg-group-trump-election-night-scenarios-a554e8f5-9702-437e-ae75-d2be478d42bb.html

    (note the name bloomberg in that link)

    https://youtu.be/C74GXN2fock

  24. tzaDream says:
    Tuesday, September 1, 2020 at 9:30 pm
    ______________________
    Do you think its clever saying “repugs” instead of “republicans” or are you just mimicking someone else to fit in?

  30. Do you think morning consult being on line only is a factor in its poll result

    Yes.

    Are you ready to call it?

    I don’t think anyone is calling anything (though you seem to be itching to call it for Trump). But at this moment (or any moment, really) you’d rather be Biden than Trump.

  31. Tom the first and best says:
    Tuesday, September 1, 2020 at 10:01 pm

    It’s not really a thread for US election – just about the electoral college.

    Nobody posts in these.

  32. a r says:
    Tuesday, September 1, 2020 at 10:03 pm
    Do you think morning consult being on line only is a factor in its poll result
    Yes.

    Are you ready to call it?
    I don’t think anyone is calling anything (though you seem to be itching to call it for Trump). But at this moment (or any moment, really) you’d rather be Biden than Trump.
    ____________________________________________
    I agree with both of your comments.

    The point of my second question – is those like sprockets who go on with silly names like Dotard when put to the test – aren’t prepared to say Biden will win.

    I agree with your sentiment – you’d rather be Biden atm but I suspect the reluctance of many to call it – is the crazy nature of Trump and the US electorate, ie there’s a nagging suspicion Trump may just pull another fluke win.

    I’m not invested in Trump just interested in the crazy nature of the US.

  33. Nicholas:

    I distinctly remember back in 2016 when you were arguing that it would be better for progressives in the long run if Trump won, because:

    A) Trump would be constrained by Congress from doing any actual damage

    B) Trump would be a certainty to lose in 2020

    and

    C) The Democrats would have the opportunity to select a more progressive candidate for 2020

    How did that go again?

  34. Lars, Kim Jong Un was on the money referring to 45 as ‘Dotard’. He probably checked the Cambridge Dictionary…

    an old person, especially one who is weak and confused:
    He was no drivelling dotard, but a smart, upright, handsome old man.
    a decrepit old dotard
    The only general test of competency is now understanding. It excludes lunatics, idiots, dotards and children of tender years.
    We humoured the rambling dotard by listening to his stories.
    Irresponsible dotards accountable to no one impose this upon us.

    But may have been thinking about the Urban Dictionary definition…

    https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=dotard

  35. A bit hard to take the apology by Vic police seriously when they spent millions under Ashton trying to keep lawyer X a secret.
    Mokbel will probably be released and receive millions in damages.
    Another stuff up from this once great state.

  36. Lars, While you’re here.

    What’s your latest on the significance of a change in sequential poll outcomes of 2% (in 53%) when the MOE is 3.1%.

    Is it a ‘halving’ or nothing at all? Are you a fool or a stirrer?

    Also, why do you use a Nazi sympathiser’s nom de plume? Intentional, or just a fellow feeling?

  39. Q: Tony Abbott, has railed against Covid “health dictatorships”, saying politicians need to balance allowing more elderly Covid patients to die by nature taking its course, with the economic costs of an extreme lockdown.
    Economic eugenics…what can you say…a new low, even for him.

  41. Torchbearer @ #1186 Tuesday, September 1st, 2020 – 10:45 pm

    Q: Tony Abbott, has railed against Covid “health dictatorships”, saying politicians need to balance allowing more elderly Covid patients to die by nature taking its course, with the economic costs of an extreme lockdown.
    Economic eugenics…what can you say…a new low, even for him.

    Tony has one old parent left alive. Would he be sanguine about THEM catching COVID-19 and dying from it just so the economy could, kind of, prosper again? (I say, ‘kind of’, because we all know that the economy, as a result of COVID-19, will never be the same again).

  42. Asha Leu @ #1180 Tuesday, September 1st, 2020 – 10:21 pm

    Nicholas:

    I distinctly remember back in 2016 when you were arguing that it would be better for progressives in the long run if Trump won, because:

    A) Trump would be constrained by Congress from doing any actual damage

    B) Trump would be a certainty to lose in 2020

    and

    C) The Democrats would have the opportunity to select a more progressive candidate for 2020

    How did that go again?

    The same way anything Nicholas enthusiastically touts.

  44. I don’t know how anyone here could even entertain the possibility of Trump winning in November when he lets Republican Members of Congress do this sort of thing in the cause of re-electing Trump:

    Twitter on Sunday flagged a manipulated clip posted by House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) that alters a question from activist Ady Barkan to Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden.

    The clip is included in a video the House’s No. 2 Republican tweeted that accuses Democrats of fomenting and encouraging violent unrest. “No police. Mob rule. Total chaos. That’s the result of the Democrat agenda,” Scalise tweeted.

    …In the initial interview, Barkan, who uses a computerized artificial voice due to his amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, asks Biden if “we agree that we can redirect some of the funding” for police departments toward public safety and mental health services. “Yes,” Biden responds.

    The clip Scalise tweeted, however, inserts the words “for police” into Barkan’s question using the same computer-generated voice from earlier in the interview.

    …Barkan called on Scalise to remove the video, tweeting, “I have lost my ability to speak, but not my agency or my thoughts. You and your team have doctored my words for your own political gain. Please remove this video immediately. You owe the entire disability community an apology.”

    https://thehill.com/policy/technology/514346-twitter-slaps-manipulated-media-tag-on-video-shared-by-scalise-that-alters

    Let alone the October Surprise Trump is likely cooking up to spring on Joe Biden, probably using some kind of jumped-up accusations that bear no relation to the actual truth.

  46. Oh dear!

    RE:

    Michael Pascoe
    @MichaelPascoe01
    No, I won’t provide a link. (Strop never been much for science ‘n’ stuff.)
    “London: Lockdowns and travel bans to combat the spread of the coronavirus should be ended, Tony Abbott has said, as he called on governments to give individuals more choice over their personal decisions.

  49. billsays:
    Tuesday, September 1, 2020 at 11:03 pm
    Outside of his weakness for flippant and provocative comments, since when was Lars von Trier (the director) a “Nazi sympathiser”?

    He was joking.
    Hilarious.
    ___________
    Was he trying to be provocative or profound? and then just realized that the abyss had opened up beneath him. I felt sorry for Kirsten Dunst.

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