Newspoll: 50-50

Back to level pegging in Newspoll, as Scott Morrison cops a dent in his still healthy personal approval and preferred prime minister ratings.

After blowing out to 53-47 in favour of the Coalition two Newspolls ago, the latest result, courtesy of The Australian, has two-party preferred back at 50-50. The Coalition is down two on the primary vote to 41% and Labor is up three to 36%, with the Greens steady on 11% and One Nation down one to 3%. Similarly, Scott Morrison’s still-healthy personal ratings are down on the last three weeks ago, with approval at 64% (down four) and disapproval on 32% (up three). Anthony Albanese is up on both approval, by two points to 43%, and disapproval, by three points to 41%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is now 58-29, in from 60-25. The poll also includes a finding that “80 per cent of Australians support border ­closures if the health situation demands it”, which I’ll go into in greater detail when I see the full results.

UPDATE: The wording to the latter question was, “do you think premiers should have the authority to close their borders or restrict entry of Australians who live in other states”, which drew responses of 80% yes and 18% no. State breakdowns: 76-22 in New South Wales, 74-23 in Victoria, 84-15 in Queensland, 92-5 in South Australia and 91-7 in Western Australia, from respective samples of 475, 371, 311, 119 and 146. The overall sample of the poll was 1507, and it was conducted from Wednesday to Saturday.

UPDATE 2 (Tuesday): Today The Australian brings further findings on attitudes to the leaders, specifically that Scott Morrison is rated as experienced by 79% and Anthony Albanese by 63%; Morrison is reckoned to have a vision for Australia by 72% compared with 52% for Albanese; and that Morrison is rated arrogant by 46% and Albanese by 37%. In all three cases, Morrison’s ratings have improved by either 11% or 12% since the questions were last posed in December, which is fairly typical of such polling in closely tracking the leader’s overall approval rating.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,221 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

  1. lizzie @ #1044 Tuesday, September 1st, 2020 – 5:16 pm

    Morrison constantly push, push, nag, nag, nag.

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison has called for COVID-19 restrictions around the country to be eased in time for people to see their families at Christmas.

    Key points:
    The Prime Minister said the NSW and Victorian premiers were committed to reopening their border as soon as it was considered safe
    He said National Cabinet’s three-step plan for reopening needed to be revisited
    Mr Morrison said Australian families and friends should be reunited by Christmas

    Mr Morrison told Question Time Victoria had “turned the corner” and states and territories needed to start planning to reopen to the rest of the country.

    “By Christmas, Mr Speaker, we should aim for Australians to be able to go to work, to be able to be with their family at Christmas, and to return to visit their friends and to look forward to a positive 2021,” he said.

    “We cannot resign Australia to being a dislocated nation under COVID-19.”

    Dsan Andrews made no such promise.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-01/scott-morrison-wants-covid-19-restrictions-lifted-by-christmas/12618152

    It’s pretty obvious that Federalsim has re-emerged during this Covid pandemic and the role of the Australian Government has been limited to throwing money at the problem and dealing with structural problems with border control and Aged care provision. They provide the money. But, they have no control over how it is spent.

    So, Morrison and co have been largely sidelined. Sure, they have a role with funding. But, largely the day to day is about the States and the Premiers. Probably the first time they have dominated since the 70s. Premiers are the Kings/Queens of this particular Jungle atm.

    This is sad for Morrison and his media supporters. But, we have a Federation and this is how it rolls in real life. All politics is local and the Premiers seem to be knowledgeable in how to wield their power.

  2. mikehilliard says:
    Tuesday, September 1, 2020 at 5:21 pm

    “I wonder if rednecks riding round in monster trucks pepper spraying and paint balling protestors is a win for the repugs.”

    Given the local Democratic Mayors and Governors are refusing to deploy enough personnel to stop the rioting, looting, burning and “No Go” areas I’d say yes.

  3. Socrates @ #1046 Tuesday, September 1st, 2020 – 5:18 pm

    I also must compliment Greens MP Ratnam for supporting Vic Labor. as I have said in the past, some here need to drop the whole Greens v Labor thing, which is a waste of time.

    However there is one more depressing detail in this event:
    “ALP+Ratnam+Patten+Meddick=19
    Coalition+DHJP+Cumming+LDP+Bourman+Barton=18

    Hayes unclear, ALP President and Somyurek abstaining.”

    Somyurek is still there, but not voting. Why? Labor can’t blame the Greens for this mess. So much for candidate vetting processes, once again.

    Somyurek has said he will not vote in parliament until the inquiry in to the allegations of Branch stacking are resolved.

  4. Bucephalus @ #1050 Tuesday, September 1st, 2020 – 5:32 pm

    mikehilliard says:
    Tuesday, September 1, 2020 at 5:21 pm

    “I wonder if rednecks riding round in monster trucks pepper spraying and paint balling protestors is a win for the repugs.”

    Given the local Democratic Mayors and Governors are refusing to deploy enough personnel to stop the rioting, looting, burning and “No Go” areas I’d say yes.

    ZZZTT! Wrong! The Police are standing by and doing nothing to help the people being attacked, according to first hand reports by journalists on the scene. When the police aren’t handing out bottles of water to double murderers.

  5. Greensborough Growler says:
    Tuesday, September 1, 2020 at 5:30 pm

    Maybe I’m wrong but any State Government that has their state locked down into Summer and especially over the Christmas-New Year period is likely to pay a severe electoral price. That’s my thoughts on that outcome.

  6. ItzaDream @ #1581 Tuesday, September 1st, 2020 – 12:18 pm

    Peter Baume, retired gastroenterologist and Liberal parliamentarian, weighs in on the Aged care debacle.

    It was a mistake to privatise aged care. Private providers who operate for profit too often have scarce regard for the welfare or needs of older people.

    https://johnmenadue.com/peter-baume-it-was-a-mistake-to-privatise-aged-care/?mc_cid=93258ecf9e&mc_eid=a7c18d3845

    We have a society where people no longer try to keep the elderly living with them. Smaller houses don’t have space for another generation. Children might not even live in the same district as their elderly parents. If they do remain with their children, they are in loving families, there is a healthy inter-generational mix, while the experience of life that the elderly bring is valuable. Many less-developed societies continue to do this.

    I touched on this aspect the other day.

    Peter was that now mythical beast, a true liberal. He (as a Parliamentarian in Frazer’s Cabinet, rather than a Gastroenterologist) was largely responsible for eliminating the peculiarly Australian disease of analgesic nephropathy – by regulating the local Pharma sharks out of existence. He couldn’t stand that evil suburban solicitor Howard.

  7. Social upheaval, regardless of the cause, tends to hurt the incumbent more than the challenger, which is why Trump (and conservatives) are desperate to pin the recent events on local and state officials. As long as Biden doesn’t go into the streets and start throwing rocks in windows, he is relatively safe from being dragged down in support.

  8. I look forward to the Greens joining #scottyfrommarketing to lobby the states to lift border restrictions for “family reasons” – especially for Australian citizens (aka “voters”.)

    Nick McKim @NickMcKim

    Deeply disappointing that Labor and the Liberals voted down a Greens motion in support of temporary visa holders who have been separated from ther loved ones during COVID. Families have a right to be together.

  9. Jaeger says:
    Tuesday, September 1, 2020 at 5:43 pm

    “Families have a right to be together.“

    Unless you are in Victoria- then Fuck You, your family isn’t important and no, you don’t have any rights.

  10. Given the local Democratic Mayors and Governors are refusing to deploy enough personnel to stop the rioting, looting, burning and “No Go” areas I’d say yes.

    Given the rednecks are brandishing Trump-Pence flags — a claim such as you’ll never be able to make in relation to any Antifa psychos or BLM extremists you might ever care to link to — I’m more doubtful.

  11. Rational Leftist says:
    Tuesday, September 1, 2020 at 5:39 pm

    “As long as Biden doesn’t go into the streets and start throwing rocks in windows, he is relatively safe from being dragged down in support.”

    Strange that the Dems are making so many statements trying to walk away from their previous support of the rioters.

  12. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Tuesday, September 1, 2020 at 5:47 pm
    Bucephalus
    “Peter border joke Dutton and Scotty from Marketing burned the base that thought they were tough on borders.”

    You keep believing that if it makes you feel good.

  13. Bucephalus @ #1055 Tuesday, September 1st, 2020 – 5:35 pm

    Greensborough Growler says:
    Tuesday, September 1, 2020 at 5:30 pm

    Maybe I’m wrong but any State Government that has their state locked down into Summer and especially over the Christmas-New Year period is likely to pay a severe electoral price. That’s my thoughts on that outcome.

    The infection rate is noticeably down these last few days. So, hopefully, there will be an opportunity to ease the restrictions after September 13. My mail is back to Stage 3 with masks and some exemptions for small business. And then further easing by the end of Septemebr.

    However, my feel and it is backed up by the polls is that most Victorians want this thing stopped and will put up with the restrictions in the short to medium term.

    Whingeing and whining like the Feds and the local nutbags is not supported by the broader community. But, that’s a Dan Andrews fan talking.

    Cheers.

  14. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Tuesday, September 1, 2020 at 5:50 pm
    Bucephalus
    “Being a Victorian i can confirm people are visiting family and friends.”

    So they are breaking the law.

  15. Bucephalus
    It has nothing to do with feeling good. Peter border joke Dutton has failed badly on borders and his leader Scotty hasn’t been much better.

  16. Basically, if you’re a voter who is deciding between Trump and Biden. You are going to be thinking: “There’s chaos on the streets, people are dying of disease and I can’t leave my house or send my kids to school. This is what’s been happening under the status quo. Maybe it’s time to change direction.”

    You are not thinking: “Well obviously things are the fault of Biden and the Democrats. The guy who’s currently running the show clearly can fix this if we give him another four years.”

  17. People can travel 5k from home and that provides plenty of cover for people to see family and friends. They can travel beyond that if they meet certain rules. Contrary to what people might think Melbourne isn’t in complete lock down with police and ADF on every street corner stopping people for paper checks.

  18. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Tuesday, September 1, 2020 at 5:56 pm
    Bucephalus
    “Not at all because you can visit people. It is there in the allowable to leave home rules under visiting a partner or care.”

    Visiting family is very different from giving care so it sounds like people are ignoring the rules. I go and visit family all the time – it’s not giving care.

    And you mentioned friends- how do you justify that – especially outside the 5 km limit?

  19. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Tuesday, September 1, 2020 at 6:07 pm

    “Contrary to what people might think Melbourne isn’t in complete lock down with police and ADF on every street corner stopping people for paper checks.”

    I saw pictures of cyclists having their IDs checked, pretty sure in St Kilda.

  20. If we let everyone visit family, and everyone visit current partner and exempt everyone who is missing family to cross the borders. Then we combine this with the 100s of people who need/ want to attend funerals without restrictions and visit the local hospital and nursing homes . It wouldn’t be a lockdown and numbers wouldn’t decrease.

    I am over hearing and reading about all the people who think they should be the exception. The virus doesn’t give leave passes, it doesn’t care about the disruption it causes, it just infects anyone.

    I knew from working in aged care that some people are very self absorbed but the level of selfishness on display at the moment makes me wonder what has become of the stoic Aussie spirit.

  21. Unless you are in Victoria- then Fuck You, your family isn’t important and no, you don’t have any rights.

    Close; in a global health crisis, individual considerations are secondary to the greater good.

    You know, like being stuck in an armoured box while the infantry are free to roam the countryside.

  22. A terrific piece by Benjamin Studebaker about the stakes of this presidential election:

    The Democrats are a big part of how we got to where we are. And if we think that the Republicans are authoritarian nationalists, it is the Democrats who have encouraged them to become that way. The ordinary American cannot look to the Democrats to resist the ravenous elite. They look to the nationalist firebrands of the right because there is nothing else on the menu. The Democratic Party is the party of the Ivy League technocrats who scorn them and tell them to “learn to code”.

    Joe Biden solidifies all of this all over again. He is the embodiment of keeping things exactly the way they’ve always been. The American people have been bludgeoned for forty years by oligarchs. They can’t take it anymore. They’ll vote for anyone who promises to make it stop. If the Democrats won’t stop it, they’ll vote for someone who will. The next Republican will be worse than Trump, and Joe Biden will make it happen if given the chance.

    …………………………

    The left hopes that replacing Trump with Biden will buy the left time. But Biden will pack his administration full of a whole new generation of vulgar careerists. It will be these people–not the left–who inherit the Democratic Party when he leaves. They will have the institutional knowledge and connections and access to money that are needed for success in American politics. They will continue servicing the oligarchs. And the Republican Party will respond by growing ever more bellicose, ever more grandiose, ever more willing to tear the whole thing down. Biden will accelerate the rise of new nationalist figures who might be able to do all the things Trump can’t even dream of doing.

    We can’t have that, and for that reason I can’t support Biden, even as a matter of strategy. To give the left more time, we need to give the left something to oppose. We can oppose the Trump administration in its second term. But if it’s Biden, we’ll be stuck defending him as he slugs the ordinary American in the face. The American people won’t forget the black eye we’ve given them, and they’ll vote for the leaders who will be the death of us.

    https://benjaminstudebaker.com/2020/08/31/the-left-case-against-supporting-joe-biden-in-the-general-election/

  23. Bucephalus
    The police are around doing their usual day to day policing and carry out bike and car checks. They will pull you up if you are not wearing a mask or if your car redo shows you are well outside your home address.

  24. William Bowe says:
    Tuesday, September 1, 2020 at 6:13 pm

    “I had my ID checked in Fremantle last year.”

    You were either too sober or too well dressed.

    Mrs B had to provide ID to get into the Metropolis for a WPA gig – she was over the moon.

  25. William Bowe
    Address 1 Poll Bludger St
    Rap sheet –
    Excessive tolerance of poorly crafted political arguments that bare little to the thread subject
    Allowing lame nicknames for politicians who should have the ground they walk on worshiped
    Endless arguing over things most people have long forgotten about

  26. if we think that the Republicans are authoritarian nationalists, it is the Democrats who have encouraged them to become that way

    Studebaker needs to get back on his trolley.

  27. Mexicanbeemer @ #1086 Tuesday, September 1st, 2020 – 6:27 pm

    William Bowe
    Address 1 Poll Bludger St
    Rap sheet –
    *Excessive tolerance of poorly crafted political arguments that bare little to the threat subject
    *Allowing lame nicknames for politicians who should have the ground they work hero worshiped
    *Endless arguing over things most people have long forgotten about

    * Bearing poor spelling!

  28. I was required to put my hands up against his vehicle and submit myself to a search, since the young officer suspected my neatly dressed, well-spoken, late forty-something self of roaming the neighbourhood slashing car tyres. In other news, I observe that the WA Liberal Party today announced an innovative new policy to let loose yet more of these power-drunk young idiots on to our streets, despite generally declining crime rates (burglary, car theft and property damage reports all down by about a quarter under the current government).

  29. Spray says:
    Tuesday, September 1, 2020 at 6:32 pm

    “There’s a White Power Activist group in Fremantle?”

    That or a Weddings, Parties, Anything band.

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