Newspoll: 50-50

Back to level pegging in Newspoll, as Scott Morrison cops a dent in his still healthy personal approval and preferred prime minister ratings.

After blowing out to 53-47 in favour of the Coalition two Newspolls ago, the latest result, courtesy of The Australian, has two-party preferred back at 50-50. The Coalition is down two on the primary vote to 41% and Labor is up three to 36%, with the Greens steady on 11% and One Nation down one to 3%. Similarly, Scott Morrison’s still-healthy personal ratings are down on the last three weeks ago, with approval at 64% (down four) and disapproval on 32% (up three). Anthony Albanese is up on both approval, by two points to 43%, and disapproval, by three points to 41%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is now 58-29, in from 60-25. The poll also includes a finding that “80 per cent of Australians support border ­closures if the health situation demands it”, which I’ll go into in greater detail when I see the full results.

UPDATE: The wording to the latter question was, “do you think premiers should have the authority to close their borders or restrict entry of Australians who live in other states”, which drew responses of 80% yes and 18% no. State breakdowns: 76-22 in New South Wales, 74-23 in Victoria, 84-15 in Queensland, 92-5 in South Australia and 91-7 in Western Australia, from respective samples of 475, 371, 311, 119 and 146. The overall sample of the poll was 1507, and it was conducted from Wednesday to Saturday.

UPDATE 2 (Tuesday): Today The Australian brings further findings on attitudes to the leaders, specifically that Scott Morrison is rated as experienced by 79% and Anthony Albanese by 63%; Morrison is reckoned to have a vision for Australia by 72% compared with 52% for Albanese; and that Morrison is rated arrogant by 46% and Albanese by 37%. In all three cases, Morrison’s ratings have improved by either 11% or 12% since the questions were last posed in December, which is fairly typical of such polling in closely tracking the leader’s overall approval rating.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,221 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  6. I don’t know why the polls have suddenly changed but given Morrisons hypocrisy has been on display in regards to border openings, branch stacking combined with the appalling aged care situation I hope that Labor capitalises on this.
    The Palmer ads admitting that he kept Labor out of power last election are also probably not playing well as he is not Australia’s most popular person at the moment.

  7. Simon Benson’s opening para says it all…

    ‘Popular support for Scott Morrison has fallen for the first time since the height of the pandemic as he takes on the states over their refusal to budge on border closures that are holding back the national economic recovery.’

  9. 50/50… oh dear.

    Better double up on the Chairman Dan attacks, ScoMo.

    With a good cross section of journos now freely leaking that Morrison’s office is briefing against Andrews, what could possibly go wrong?

  11. More polling…

    ‘The slide in support for the Prime Minister and the Coalition comes on the back of universal and overwhelming support among voters for the premiers’ right to close borders and restrict entry if and when outbreaks occur.

    A special poll conducted for The Australian shows 80 per cent of Australians support border ­closures if the health situation demands it.

    The results reveal the difficulty for the federal government as it faces off with the states, with the exception of NSW, which it has been blaming for holding back the national economic recovery.

  12. Bound to happen because after a solid few weeks the federal government has lost a bit of momentum with the blow up in aged care and the fall out from quarantine and early access to super could be hurting the government.

  14. It also follows the move by Mr Morrison to take ownership of the aged-care crisis in Victoria, which was sparked by the Andrews government’s quarantine failure that sparked the second wave outbreak and the economic shutdown of the state.

    People in the hard border closure states of Queensland and Western Australia were the strongest in their support for the premiers’ right to keep their states locked down.

    However, Victorians who remain in stage-four lockdown were the least enthusiastic, with the ­lowest support for their border closure.

    The loudest voices were in South Australia, with 92 per cent backing their right to refuse entry to other Australians, followed by WA on 91 per cent and Queensland on 84 per cent.

    A significant majority, 74 per cent, of Victorians backed their leader and 76 per cent of voters in NSW also supported the right of Premier Gladys Berejiklian to put the fence up if needed.

  15. Based on the GwV site this seems to be driven more by a reduction in Scotty’s approval rating than by an improvmentt in Albo’s, by a ratio of about 2:1

    Mind you, one poll does not make a summer – or a summary jugdement!

  16. If by some miscarriage the HC were to find in favour of Palmer, support for secession in WA would climb into the high 80s and the Liberals would find their federal support in the teens.

  17. Non says:
    Sunday, August 30, 2020 at 9:42 pm
    “If by some miscarriage the HC were to find in favour of Palmer, support for secession in WA would climb into the high 80s and the Liberals would find their federal support in the teens.”

    And then there is Qld, NT, SA, Tassie….

  18. sprocket_ @ #7 Sunday, August 30th, 2020 – 9:36 pm

    Simon Benson’s opening para says it all…

    ‘Popular support for Scott Morrison has fallen for the first time since the height of the pandemic as he takes on the states over their refusal to budge on border closures that are holding back the national economic recovery.’

    There is such a thing as society, Scott. Corporations are not people, you know. So stop favouring them with your policies! This goes triple for Aged Care. The facilities are full of people’s mums and dads, nannas and pops, not clients!

    And answer questions truthfully and without bombast and attempts to bamboozle and blame shift!

  20. As no one else has mentioned it, the blow up in the Victorian Liberal Party this week and Scott Morrison’s refusal to deal with it like a leader, instead duck-shoving the snafu to Finance, where he hopes it will be buried, is probably not impressing people either.

  24. ‘However, Victorians who remain in stage-four lockdown were the least enthusiastic, with the ­lowest support for their border closure.’

    Has Victoria actually closed a border? I thought other states had closed their borders to Victoria…

  27. As I have said on many occasions, it’s inconceivable that Morrison is either liked or respected by his colleagues.

    Not after what they’ve seen him do to claw his way to the top, and not when he refuses to treat others with respect and dignity.

    The Morrison you see on TV – shifty, disloyal, evasive, dishonest, unlikeable, motor-mouthed and full of phony bonhommie – is the real Morrison, the same Morrison they had to sack before he completely fucked up Australian Tourism while doing untendered sweetheart deals with his mates. Some things never change.

    The “Powers That Be” in the Libs will see him as a useful idiot, until he fails to meet his sales KPIs. Then they’ll ditch him like any other salesman who comes in under-quota.

  35. People in the hard border closure states of Queensland and Western Australia were the strongest in their support for the premiers’ right to keep their states locked down.
    However, Victorians who remain in stage-four lockdown were the least enthusiastic, with the -lowest support for their border closure.
    The loudest voices were in South Australia, with 92 per cent backing their right to refuse entry to other Australians, followed by WA on 91 per cent and Queensland on 84 per cent.

  38. Across Pennsylvania — especially in rural communities — tens of thousands of yard signs supporting Joe Biden have popped up as his fans try to replicate how President Trump showed his growing support in the state when he was campaigning in 2016. And, just as quickly, some of those signs have been vanishing.

    It usually happens in the dark of night, local Democrats say, but sometimes in daylight. Sometimes entire streets or neighborhoods are cleared. Pro-Biden Facebook groups have devoted long threads to strategies for deterring sign snatchers — one suggestion involves clear hair gel and pesky glitter, another electrifying the metal frame with a car battery.

    …
    The easiest option, many have advised, is to put the sign inside a window or bring it in at night — or order a flag or banner that can be mounted high off the ground. Others have invested in motion-activated cameras or have placed signs within sight of doorbell cameras. One woman stapled her sign to a porch railing, and another positioned hers in a poison ivy patch.

    And then there are suggestions about what to spread or spray on their signs to prevent theft or punish the thief: ground-up ghost peppers that irritate bare skin. A mixture of peppermint oil and Vicks. Fox, deer or coyote urine purchased at a sporting goods store. Slippery olive oil or grease. Vaseline and cayenne pepper. Vaseline and glitter. Vaseline, Tabasco sauce and glitter. Vaseline and pink glitter. Honey and glitter. Dog poop and glitter.

    Glitter is key, according to numerous women in the group, because once it gets on your hands or in your car, it will be there for weeks. Maybe years. “Glitter is the herpes of the crafting world,” one woman declared in a social media post.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/the-latest-battlefield-in-a-heated-presidential-campaign-front-yards-bearing-biden-signs/2020/08/29/5264dc70-e962-11ea-970a-64c73a1c2392_story.html

    🙂

  41. Victoria @ #31 Sunday, August 30th, 2020 – 10:03 pm

    C@t

    Buce does really try. Lol!

    I trolled him back by putting up the article about Biden yard signs. 🙂

    This quote, by a 17yo voting for the first time in November says it all to the Buces of this world:

    “The whole idea of this election is to be a better nation, be a better people,” said Northup, who is excited to vote for the first time this fall. “And so I think that if we handle things more peacefully, instead of trying to hurt one another, that’s a much better way to go about your life.”

  44. It would be interesting to see how Dutton would go against Morrison now with so many who voted for the latter now having left Parliament. Turnbull, Bishop, Pyne, Fifield, Laundy, O’Dwyer, Sinodinos, Banks and probably a couple of others I cant recall.

  45. People in the hard border closure states of Queensland and Western Australia were the strongest in their support for the premiers’ right to keep their states locked down.

    Probably because we’ve seen how successful lockdown is.

  47. Peter border joke Dutton should be looking for a new job maybe one that isn’t on the taxpayer because he is one bludger we cannot afford.

  48. Victoria never closed borders. Border disputes is not a particularly strong issue in Victoria outside border communities.

    I highly doubt branch stacking scandal itself has caused a shift in voting intention. Not a topic that keeps voters up at night.

    Morrison’s aged care disaster is something that is very personal to folks. He is paying the price of having an inept, incompetent and blundering moron of a minister.

  49. Dutton’s star has sunk. His ambition greatly exceeds his ability. It’s laughable that anyone could consider him PM material.

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