After blowing out to 53-47 in favour of the Coalition two Newspolls ago, the latest result, courtesy of The Australian, has two-party preferred back at 50-50. The Coalition is down two on the primary vote to 41% and Labor is up three to 36%, with the Greens steady on 11% and One Nation down one to 3%. Similarly, Scott Morrison’s still-healthy personal ratings are down on the last three weeks ago, with approval at 64% (down four) and disapproval on 32% (up three). Anthony Albanese is up on both approval, by two points to 43%, and disapproval, by three points to 41%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is now 58-29, in from 60-25. The poll also includes a finding that “80 per cent of Australians support border closures if the health situation demands it”, which I’ll go into in greater detail when I see the full results.
UPDATE: The wording to the latter question was, “do you think premiers should have the authority to close their borders or restrict entry of Australians who live in other states”, which drew responses of 80% yes and 18% no. State breakdowns: 76-22 in New South Wales, 74-23 in Victoria, 84-15 in Queensland, 92-5 in South Australia and 91-7 in Western Australia, from respective samples of 475, 371, 311, 119 and 146. The overall sample of the poll was 1507, and it was conducted from Wednesday to Saturday.
UPDATE 2 (Tuesday): Today The Australian brings further findings on attitudes to the leaders, specifically that Scott Morrison is rated as experienced by 79% and Anthony Albanese by 63%; Morrison is reckoned to have a vision for Australia by 72% compared with 52% for Albanese; and that Morrison is rated arrogant by 46% and Albanese by 37%. In all three cases, Morrison’s ratings have improved by either 11% or 12% since the questions were last posed in December, which is fairly typical of such polling in closely tracking the leader’s overall approval rating.
In my view the result may reflect a better performance by ALP in opposition .. that is signs of a weak pulse rather than feeble servitude to the scrotum team.
Confessions says:
Sunday, August 30, 2020 at 10:22 pm
People in the hard border closure states of Queensland and Western Australia were the strongest in their support for the premiers’ right to keep their states locked down.
Probably because we’ve seen how successful lockdown is.
It invokes some very primal instincts too…. rally together and defend against the (external) intruder….find safety in each other and by asserting control….it’s not xenophobia, but it’s in the same family….It’s working for the moment.
I don’t think this is 50:50.
I think newspoll is 50:50 and the ALP need to really bring the heat this week.
Didn’t hear a peep out of the ALP all weekend. There’s lots going on and this is the last sitting week for how long?
IcanCU says:
Sunday, August 30, 2020 at 10:52 pm
In my view the result may reflect a better performance by ALP in opposition .. that is signs of a weak pulse rather than feeble servitude to the scrotum team.
If the polling means anything at all, it suggests that the LNP are shedding support because of their failures in aged care and because they’ve sought politicise the pandemic. Labor have been models of forbearance, responsibility and rectitude.
The LNP are very attached to their ideological positions. It’s a great weakness.
south says:
Sunday, August 30, 2020 at 10:54 pm
I don’t think this is 50:50.
I think newspoll is 50:50 and the ALP need to really bring the heat this week.
Didn’t hear a peep out of the ALP all weekend. There’s lots going on and this is the last sitting week for how long?
The poll – which at least tries to be an objective measure – suggests you’re wrong. Labor is succeeding by doing exactly the opposite of what you demand. If they set out to politically exploit the pandemic their support would decline into the teens.
south @ #51 Sunday, August 30th, 2020 – 10:54 pm
Poor south. He’s had his head in the sand and so didn’t ‘hear’ Anthony Albanese on Insiders this morning. So, in south’s tiny mind, because HE didn’t hear him, no one did.
It must be so disconcerting when you’ve been railing against Labor for weeks now and then they go and defy you and go up in the polls.
A 50/50 result for the L/NP is a catastrophe.
Compare the TPP and PPM to that of the various state results and premiers.
The L/NP are behaving like Santa in the middle of a national crisis, which has traditionally strongly favoured incumbents (as actually borne out at a state level) and they’ve not got higher than 52 in credible polling, and have just booked a 50-50.
They can’t even blame a strongly performing opposition, Labor have been weak, bordering on pathetic.
Trump was boosting his polls earlier from some dodgy poll, but this new poll says otherwise:
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trumps-favorability-perceptions-covid-19-response-stagnate-post/story?id=72705268
south @ #53 Sunday, August 30th, 2020 – 8:54 pm
Then I suggest you watch this morning’s Insiders. Albo did very well. He didn’t hit any sixers (or home runs if you prefer), but he did stand his ground and got the message across without ranting. At this stage that’s about the best anyone can hope for. Why should he do any different when his opponent is shooting himself in the foot.
Another poll also Boris Slumps in Poll:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/aug/29/boris-johnson-faces-tory-wrath-as-party-slumps-in-shock-poll?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=soc_568&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1598748487
holy crap !
MAVIS !
Im very confident Labor will win the next federal election
When governments have been in for a few terms, the last one they win usually seems to be one that is “Unexpected”
Keating 93 this is one for the true believers
Morison 19 I have always believed in miracles
Is anyone able to provide an example of when a PM has made a statement like these at a victory speech, then went on to win the following election?
Plus we will have the biggest deficit in history by a massive margin, Albo only needs to campaign on that alone
C@tmomma, Grimace,
50:50 means nothing, the LNP are in government. Bill shorten used to do well on QANDA and insiders and he got 60+ news polls in a row.
In the real world most people don’t jump out of bed to watch insiders. I walked my dog instead.
Until the ALP can get everyone Right or Left on that couch on insiders to really hang shit on the government, nothing will change.
I would bet that in the history of insiders, not one Australian has every watched an insiders episode and then started their Sunday and thought “I’m going to change my vote!”
Insiders is a confirmation bias buffet. And even if it doesn’t confirm your bias, it just confirms your view of bias.
@ South
I don’t watch Insiders or Q&A, never regularly have. 50-50 in the circumstances is a disaster.
South,
You’re right of course. Relying on an appearance on Insiders to change people’s votes is unrealistic.
I wonder what you suggest Labor do?
What about get a big, wealthy, sympathiser to start up a tabloid newspaper in each capital city, coupled with a cable TV channel and a bunch of journalists who give you unquestioning loyality? That way they can hammer Morrison and his cronies seven days a week while maintaining a fictitious ‘Independant’ stance.
Should work a treat.
How say you?
Maude Lynne @ #65 Sunday, August 30th, 2020 – 10:32 pm
Since Murdoch won’t even allow MSNBC to be available on FoxTel, there’s absolutely no hope of an Australian version of it getting off the ground.
DP
Yes, Murdoch’s control is pretty much absolute.
Only his death will cause control to be relinquished.
Interesting comment at the 55s mark. I’ll have to find out more that cultural map.
6 POLITICAL DIFFERENCES between Australia and America: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lwuDlWMxl40
The video is from January last year, but some of the observations seem even more true now.
grimace,
Watch our for lines from the Fberg along the lines of “Once a century event”. No one cares about money or deficit anymore.
Maude,
Labor should talk about the future, and spend time scaring the shit out people about climate change (bushfire season, time to make hay) and how that fear can be ameliorated by addressing climate change with high paying clean jobs.
Labor needs to frame the government as old, not woke, dirty, corrupt and lazy and too stupid to understand where the future is at.
Rupert is 89. If you look up an actuarial life table, he’s got about < 5 years till he's not a problem.
Labor have little to loose, they are the opposition.
If I was labor, every time I went to a press conference, I would bully Newcorp.
Try and get a clip on social media where a reporter says, "I'm so and so from the Australian," And then the energetic ALP candidate quips "People still read the Australian? "
It's in the zeitgeist that the mainstream media don't like Labor. So why does labor seek approval. They should become hostile and dismissive and elusive.
There's lots that could be done. but reflecting on my ideas about a clean high tech economy I don't know about Albo. I don't see him as a guy who's really switched on to the future and what it could be.
btw, I do want the left to win.
Inglehart–Welzel cultural map of the world: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inglehart%E2%80%93Welzel_cultural_map_of_the_world
2008 version of the map:
2017 version of the map:
Labor will not win by dissing the media….by fronting up as smart-asses. They will not win by talking about the jobs market as if it’s a fantasyland. They will not win because Rupert is going to peg out one day. Lachlan is much worse.
Labor will not win by appearing to be whinging, sneering, green-tinted know-alls.
Non,
Seems like the labor party won’t win.
It’s like the ALP is suffering from a political version of regulatory capture.
If anyone’s feeling generous, today wouldn’t be a bad day to make a donation, being the last day of what’s been a lean month in which I actually worked very hard on the blog (on the NT election, which evidently doesn’t rouse much excitement).
According to Lawyerly
Landmark class action filed against Victoria over botched hotel quarantine program
The State of Victoria has been hit with a class action for its allegedly negligent handling of its hotel quarantine program, which is believed to be responsible for the state’s second wave of coronavirus
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
Simon Benson outlines the findings of the latest Newspoll.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll-scott-morrisons-numbers-dip-as-voters-back-premiers-rights/news-story/fcfa72ea6eedde193f2329f26aafafb7
According to Shane Wright, The Australian Industry Group wants Treasurer Josh Frydenberg to bring forward tax cuts for workers and businesses in the October 6 budget.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/bring-forward-tax-cuts-industry-says-economy-needs-cash-now-20200830-p55qna.html
And, according to Paul Karp, it wants the Morrison government to spend $3.3bn over 10 years on renewable energy and $500m over two years on capital grants to improve energy efficiency and management.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/aug/31/australian-industry-group-urges-coalition-to-spend-at-least-33bn-on-renewable-energy-over-coming-decade
Katharine Murphy tells us that the Health Services Union has called for the Medicare levy to be increased from 2% to 2.65% to fund the necessary improvements in aged care as the Morrison government’s record during the pandemic faces ongoing scrutiny when parliament resumes on Monday.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/aug/31/increase-medicare-levy-to-pay-for-aged-care-health-union-says
Josh Butler reports that startling unemployment figures predict the hangover from lockdowns in Victoria to continue months beyond the restrictions easing, with spending plummeting 80 per cent in some sectors.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2020/08/30/victoria-unemployment-coronavirus/
The AFR’s Michael Smith looks at where we are at with our relationship with China. He says that with no obvious circuit-breaker to the present stand-off, tensions are seen as likely to escalate because of public frustrations over the coronavirus and deteriorating US-China relations.
https://www.afr.com/world/asia/frosty-is-the-new-normal-in-stand-off-20200824-p55orp
There’s an ominous feel about these latest Covid-19 outbreaks in Sydney.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/seven-new-covid-19-cases-in-nsw-as-sydney-cbd-cluster-grows-to-28-20200830-p55qmt.html
Luke Henriques-Gomes writes that Jobseekers in locked-down Melbourne are bracing for a “devastating” $300 cut to welfare benefits that will hit only two weeks after stage four restrictions are expected to end.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/aug/31/jobseekers-in-locked-down-melbourne-brace-for-devastating-300-cut-to-welfare
Peter Martin writes that the five consecutive hikes in compulsory super contributions due to start next July should be deferred or abandoned in the view of the overwhelming majority of the leading Australian economists surveyed by the Economic Society of Australia and The Conversation.
https://theconversation.com/australias-top-economists-oppose-the-next-increases-in-compulsory-super-new-poll-145111
The Victorian government – and Victorian taxpayers – will be hit with billions of dollars worth of compensation claims in class action lawsuits blaming the Andrews government for the financial devastation facing so many businesses, writes Jennifer Hewett.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/covid-19-class-actions-hit-victoria-20200830-p55qoi
Caitlin Fitzsimmons reports that the Australian Border Force is approving travel requests at a much higher rate now than earlier in the pandemic and making decisions within hours that previously took weeks.
https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/definite-shift-in-border-force-approach-to-travel-ban-as-approvals-surge-20200828-p55qfu.html
The coronavirus pandemic recession is disproportionately hurting the nation’s economic powerhouses, Sydney and Melbourne, in a way that could leave a lasting impact on the country for years and force the cities to reinvent themselves. explains Shane Wright.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/virus-hits-the-nation-s-economic-powerhouses-sydney-and-melbourne-20200828-p55q7c.html
Dana McCauley profiles Richard Colbeck.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/who-is-richard-colbeck-the-low-profile-minister-in-the-middle-of-a-covid-crisis-20200828-p55qdu.html
Instead of blaming each other for problems affecting them, older and younger generations should work towards an outcome to benefit society, writes Tom McCarthy.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/closing-the-generation-gap-for-a-better-australia,14259
Australian security agencies are on alert for extremists who could have been inspired by the Christchurch mosque killer and other massacres overseas, as small far-right cells across the country are becoming more organised and sophisticated than ever before. Anthony Galloway reports on the growing extremist threat from the right,
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/more-organised-sophisticated-and-security-conscious-than-before-right-wing-extremist-threat-growing-20200829-p55q6a.html
Shaun Carney thinks Morrison’s China decree reeks of rash decision-making.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/morrison-s-china-decree-reeks-of-rash-decision-making-20200828-p55q8t.html
Michael Sainsbury looks at the university sector’s tendency to mimic corporate Australia’s “male, pale and stale” Jurassic attitudes towards sexual harassment while continuing to sign off on corporate salaries for its all-powerful vice-chancellors.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/male-pale-stale-uni-governance-in-spotlight-again-after-adelaide-sex-scandal/
Michael Koziol reports that the hotel quarantine system for returned travellers is running below its stated capacity, with at times 1000 fewer Australians arriving home a week than allowed, as airlines warn it could take six months to return an estimated 100,000 people.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/quarantine-system-for-returned-travellers-running-below-capacity-20200828-p55q78.html
Nick Toscano explains how Australia’s four oil refineries are approaching breaking point with fuel demand remaining below pre-pandemic levels for the foreseeable future.
https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/oil-refineries-at-breaking-point-as-fuel-slump-drags-on-20200830-p55qm2.html
Sally Whyte tells us that a vaccine for COVID-19 hasn’t been successfully developed yet, but experts are already warning the Australian government needs to be ready to combat fake vaccines or real vaccines being stolen. The dark web gets a mention.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6900684/warning-covid-19-vaccines-could-be-sold-on-dark-web/?cs=17318
A concerned Fiona Armstrong writes that changes to environment laws and clean energy funding are making the Coalition’s plan clear.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6900033/changes-to-environment-laws-and-clean-energy-funding-make-the-coalitions-plan-clear/?cs=14258
The editorial in the SMH understandably says that Facebook still not doing enough to stem the flow of misinformation.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/facebook-still-not-doing-enough-to-stem-flow-of-misinformation-20200830-p55qpb.html
Richard Talbot decries the sick culture at the heart of corporate Australia. Not a good look!
https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-sick-culture-at-the-heart-of-corporate-australia-20200830-p55qo0.html
Michelle Grattan opines that the Government’s plan for a veto over university agreements is a step too far.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6900588/governments-plan-for-a-veto-over-university-agreements-is-a-step-too-far/?cs=14258
The High Court’s decision to quash Cardinal George Pell’s convictions for child sex offences has “opened the floodgates” for sexual offenders to have their convictions overturned on appeal, victim advocates say. It will also have a devastating impact on the healing and mental health of sexual assault survivors, they claim.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6893308/has-pells-acquittal-opened-the-floodgates-it-depends-who-you-ask/?cs=14225
Cartoon Corner
Matt Golding
John Shakespeare
Jim Pavlidis
Johannes Leak
From the US
Wouldn’t it be better for the govt to extend JobKeeper and JobSeeker than give a tax cut to businesses?
Confessions @ #76 Monday, August 31st, 2020 – 6:39 am
It would be better for the government to keep money coming into the coffers considering the reduction in revenue they are facing.
Non @10:52. ”It invokes some very primal instincts too…. rally together and defend against the (external) intruder….find safety in each other and by asserting control….it’s not xenophobia, but it’s in the same family….It’s working for the moment.“
Like “boats”.
I have been watching the Mayor of Portland, Oregon giving Trump the hugest of serves.
shellbell @ #74 Monday, August 31st, 2020 – 5:38 am
I bet the Anti Class Action Bill of Morrison and Porter gets put on the back burner. 🙂
Good morning and many thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol.
From the BK Files. 👇👇👇
Shaun Carney thinks Morrison’s China decree reeks of rash decision-making.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/morrison-s-china-decree-reeks-of-rash-decision-making-20200828-p55q8t.html
“Rash ❓ ” Isn’t medication available for this ❓ Maybe a cream.
BK @ #79 Monday, August 31st, 2020 – 6:49 am
BK,
The interesting thing about it all to me is that Trump appears to be co-ordinating with the Police to do nothing to restore ‘Law and Order’. So many times I have read of the police standing by and doing nothing!
There have been some economy commentators saying that a deficit is no longer important. I don’t think that Labor should dwell on the big deficit. It’s a dead parrot.
I’d like to know who initiated the class action against Victoria. Someone who hates Dan Andrews?
Wow.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h84qIt6o3qw
lizzie @ #84 Monday, August 31st, 2020 – 7:06 am
Liberal Senator for Victoria, Sarah Henderson, has been talking it up in recent days. So there are probably Liberal lawyer firms that she has tapped to take up the cudgels.
The Trump caravan in Portland shoots at people in the street with paint balls and pepper spray.
https://twitter.com/ByMikeBaker/status/1299908467457622016
How dumb do you have to be to take a class action against a government trying to stop the spread of a highly infectious, deadly virus?
KayJay @ #79 Monday, August 31st, 2020 – 5:01 am
I was thinking that “rash” implied a brain fart, so maybe a plug would work better. 🙂
There’s a multi-pronged attack against Labor states atm.
D @ #90 Monday, August 31st, 2020 – 7:26 am
All to attempt to hide this fact:
The federal government has been criticising Victoria as it looks to shed blame for failures in the Commonwealth-led aged care system.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2020/08/30/victoria-unemployment-coronavirus/
Confessions – that is Doc Rivers, coach of the LA Clippers.
Trump is using basketball to further whip up hysteria. His acolytes have told Lebron James to shut up and dribble, Trump has said basketball will suffer because they are ‘speaking out’.
I have been involved in basketball since I was 10 (a long time ago) now on a Board of a club with my kids playing, coaching and refereeing. Proud of the sport (there is more to it than a lot realise!).
But why does it take people involved in sport to do the heavy lifting when we elect our leaders to lead not divide.
Yay! I hope this continues:
Source: The New Daily
A vote for the LNP is a vote for Clive Palmer…. and opening borders to the pandemic
‘Clive Palmer and his companies have pumped more than $80,000 into his spoiler political party during the past three weeks – including paying coal company staff to support his anti-Labor campaign at the Queensland election.
Liberal National party sources have told Guardian Australia a deal is already done for the LNP opposition to receive preference flows from Palmer’s United Australia party, which has launched a pre-election advertising blitz of yellow billboards telling voters to “give Labor the boot”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/aug/31/clive-palmer-companies-donate-80000-to-queensland-election-war-chest?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
You’d hope a journalist would put this question to Josh Frdenburg or Scott Morrison. They won’t, they’ll parrot the Coalition talking points instead:
BeeHoneybee
@BelindaJones68
Why is EVERY news program saying EXACTLY the same thing? ‘demands grow for Dan Andrews to provide a roadmap out’
That’s a Liberal talking point NOT news!
Where are the ‘demands for Scott Morrison to provide a roadmap out’? An aged care plan? A jobs plan? CC plan?
shellbell says:
Monday, August 31, 2020 at 5:38 am
According to Lawyerly
Landmark class action filed against Victoria over botched hotel quarantine program
The State of Victoria has been hit with a class action for its allegedly negligent handling of its hotel quarantine program, which is believed to be responsible for the state’s second wave of coronavirus
Send them on to Dutton. He is responsible for border protection.
Scout:
Trump went on a marathon incite-tweet fest to talk up people taking up arms against the protesters. He is inciting this behaviour from his fans because he knows that if the election is a referendum on him and his record in office he is finished. If he can keep the focus on protesters and violence he can win.
This is disgusting by Frydenburg.
Attacking Victoria not leading the country and not supporting Victoria.
Pathetic politics
Pathetic
Given that Victoria didn’t close its borders, any resentment in Victoria about border closures is likely directed at the governments who actually closed them.
On the border, certainly, most of the blame for the way the closure is being handled is being sheeted home to Gladys Berejiklian. One local MP I contacted for assistance said ‘it’s NSW’s show’ and even her own local rep has made it clear he’s very unhappy with the way things have been handled.
A friend of mine posted on facebook that she had sent virtually identical letters to Morrison, Berejiklian and Hazzard, raising questions to do with how her business was affected by the border lockdown. Morrison’s office wrote back that it was a state matter, so her letter had been forwarded t the Premier; Berejiklian’s office replied that it was to do with Health, so it had been sent to Hazzard; and Hazzard replied that it was a federal issue, and that he’d forwarded it to the PM….
Slowly slowly catchee Scrooter.