Newspoll: 50-50

Back to level pegging in Newspoll, as Scott Morrison cops a dent in his still healthy personal approval and preferred prime minister ratings.

After blowing out to 53-47 in favour of the Coalition two Newspolls ago, the latest result, courtesy of The Australian, has two-party preferred back at 50-50. The Coalition is down two on the primary vote to 41% and Labor is up three to 36%, with the Greens steady on 11% and One Nation down one to 3%. Similarly, Scott Morrison’s still-healthy personal ratings are down on the last three weeks ago, with approval at 64% (down four) and disapproval on 32% (up three). Anthony Albanese is up on both approval, by two points to 43%, and disapproval, by three points to 41%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is now 58-29, in from 60-25. The poll also includes a finding that “80 per cent of Australians support border ­closures if the health situation demands it”, which I’ll go into in greater detail when I see the full results.

UPDATE: The wording to the latter question was, “do you think premiers should have the authority to close their borders or restrict entry of Australians who live in other states”, which drew responses of 80% yes and 18% no. State breakdowns: 76-22 in New South Wales, 74-23 in Victoria, 84-15 in Queensland, 92-5 in South Australia and 91-7 in Western Australia, from respective samples of 475, 371, 311, 119 and 146. The overall sample of the poll was 1507, and it was conducted from Wednesday to Saturday.

UPDATE 2 (Tuesday): Today The Australian brings further findings on attitudes to the leaders, specifically that Scott Morrison is rated as experienced by 79% and Anthony Albanese by 63%; Morrison is reckoned to have a vision for Australia by 72% compared with 52% for Albanese; and that Morrison is rated arrogant by 46% and Albanese by 37%. In all three cases, Morrison’s ratings have improved by either 11% or 12% since the questions were last posed in December, which is fairly typical of such polling in closely tracking the leader’s overall approval rating.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,221 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

  1. lizzie @ #885 Tuesday, September 1st, 2020 – 12:27 pm

    Senator Hume betrays her nasty personality in her language. Contempt for two men who have contributed far more to Australia.

    Sunrise
    @sunriseon7
    · 5h
    “I find it quite extraordinary that the Labor Party feel the need to open the crypt and bring out two former PMs” – @SenatorHume weighs in after Kevin Rudd and Paul Keating united to urge the Coalition not to dump next year’s increase to the compulsory superannuation guarantee.

    Remind me how frequently the Liberals exhume John Howard from Wollstonecraft again?

  2. There is nothing mutually exclusive or incongruous between the Federal Government’s dereliction of it’s duty to provide adequate (indeed, any) quarantine for it’s citizens and the States setting limits as to what they can handle to cope with the Federal failure.

  3. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #883 Tuesday, September 1st, 2020 – 12:20 pm

    pukka @ #879 Tuesday, September 1st, 2020 – 10:18 am

    Rachel(I think, in a mask) asks the Vic CHO.

    Are you aware of any deaths that have not been reported yet?

    The answer was:

    If they are not reported I can not be aware of them.

    😆 😆 😆

    Impeccable logic.

    There’s always the attic and that cupboard under the stairs; can’t trust these medicos trying to keep the numbers down*

    (*tongue firmly in cheek)

  4. Bucephalus @ #899 Tuesday, September 1st, 2020 – 10:43 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Tuesday, September 1, 2020 at 12:20 pm
    “pukka @ #879 Tuesday, September 1st, 2020 – 10:18 am

    Rachel(I think, in a mask) asks the Vic CHO.

    Are you aware of any deaths that have not been reported yet?

    The answer was:

    If they are not reported I can not be aware of them.

    Impeccable logic.“

    You do understand why the journalist felt the need to ask that?

    Is it because she is an idiot?

    Yesterday Victoria reported over 40 deaths sending social media into a flat spin over the “massive spike” and accusations that the media was covering up and all sorts of carry on. But only 8 were deaths in the past 24 hours and over 30 were previously unreported cases.

    Yes, so what?

  5. Lars Von Trier @ #893 Tuesday, September 1st, 2020 – 12:37 pm

    C@t what’s the latest on Wamberal ?

    Lars, What’s your latest on the significance of a change in sequential poll outcomes of 2% in 53% when the MOE is 3.1%. Is it a ‘halving’ or nothing at all? Are you a fool or a stirrer? Discuss.

    Also, why do you use a Nazi sympathiser’s nom de plume? Intentional, or just a fellow feeling?

  6. Bucephalus says:
    Tuesday, September 1, 2020 at 12:38 pm
    It is an interesting juxtaposition that many on this site claim it is the Federal Government that is responsible for quarantine yet it is the Statescthat are setting the limits on arrivals from overseas.
    ——————

    The question you should be asking is

    Morrison claimed the Borders were closed from March (State of emergency) to overseas arrivals

    why are the federal authorities still allowing arrivals from overseas into Australia

  7. Afternoon all. If I read this article correctly there are currently more community transmission cases of Covid19 occurring in NSW (13 today) than Victoria (0 today in community; 71 in federally controlled Aged Care homes). BY the end of this week NSW infections might outnumber Victorian ones. What will Newscorpse say then?
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/coronavirus/2020/09/01/victoria-after-lockdown-plans/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=News%20Alert%20-%2020200901

  8. “Senior doctors across Melbourne are urging politicians not to support a state of emergency extension, saying the move threatens to “destroy” the health and wellbeing of fed-up Victorians.

    In a letter to Premier Daniel Andrews, seen by NCA NewsWire, 13 medical practitioners outlined their concerns about the State Government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

    They say it is “vital” stage four restrictions are lifted on September 13, believe “an alternative medical response” is required and highlight key data they think is being “excluded”.

    “It is our professional opinion that the stage 4 lockdown policy has caused unprecedented negative economic and social outcomes in people, which in themselves are having negative health outcomes,” the doctors say in the letter.”

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/breaking-news/victorian-doctors-pen-desperate-letter-to-dan-andrews-about-controversial-state-of-emergency-bill/news-story/477352005ec852b6dd4b0e8f31f97441

  9. Scott says:
    Tuesday, September 1, 2020 at 12:52 pm

    “why are the federal authorities still allowing arrivals from overseas into Australia”

    They are Australian Citizens.

  10. Itza, poroti

    “Viruses are the commonest causes of myocarditis. Inflammation of cardiac muscle impairs its function (rhythmic contractility) leading to cardiac failure, and can act as loci of electrical irritability leading to extraneous (ectopic) beats and rhythms, often fatal.”

    Sadly true. In my families case my otherwise very healthy brother contracted Ross River Fever in northern Australia. He now has a pacemaker. Previously he had run marathons.

  11. Socrates @ #909 Tuesday, September 1st, 2020 – 10:52 am

    Afternoon all. If I read this article correctly there are currently more community transmission cases of Covid19 occurring in NSW (13 today) than Victoria (0 today in community; 71 in federally controlled Aged Care homes). BY the end of this week NSW infections might outnumber Victorian ones. What will Newscorpse say then?
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/coronavirus/2020/09/01/victoria-after-lockdown-plans/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=News%20Alert%20-%2020200901

    What a great job NSW is doing in keeping COVID out of aged care facilities.

  12. I was aware that Howard wanted to reduce the number of providers to 10 or 15 and this was why he encouraged smaller community based providers to exit the industry. Many of them had clauses in their constitutions that meant they had to go to similar charities. This of course helped the larger not for profits increase their reach in the industry.
    The current not for profit industry group was originally set up to lobby on behalf of the smaller groups. As the charitable sector took over more and more bed licences, the board of this organisation was also taken over by the CEOs and CFOs of the big charity players who then used their clout to influence policy that further assisted their model of business.

    It always surprised me that the towns that had their own aged care facilities didn’t fight harder to keep them, a well run home has the potential to provide lots of training opportunities and jobs for the locals. As long as it used its income to maintain its own facility and didn’t try to expand too quickly it could remain viable. But the changed focus of the industry lobby group had significant success in the changes that ultimately have resulted in smaller providers struggling to remain viable.

    If the government ever got serious about the issues in aged care it would return to a model of care funding being linked to care staff. The facilities should be required to show that a set percentage of money claimed for care is spent on care, in the facility it is derived from. Prior to the changes that happened in the late 1990s the amount of money earned and spent on care had to be 99 percent. If this was reintroduced, maybe at a lower level with incremental rises over a period of time, many big providers would claim the business model was broken. The government could then take over these facilities and assign them to not for profit providers who are interested in aged care not profit.

    It is also unfortunate that Howard was unable to make aged care a state priority, which was part of the aged care act changes he wanted. Imagine the difference in aged care outcomes in Victoria if they had been part of the health department from the start of the pandemic.

  13. frednk says:
    Tuesday, September 1, 2020 at 12:49 pm

    “In Bucephalus mad mind the CMO should be sacked for not being omnipotent“

    I’ve never called for the sacking of the Victorian CMO, any other CMO or public servant in relation to the COVID-19 issue.

  14. Bucephalus:

    It is an interesting juxtaposition that many on this site claim it is the Federal Government that is responsible for quarantine yet it is the Statescthat are setting the limits on arrivals from overseas.

    If the Commonwealth were to set a national limit of zero then the number coming in would indeed be below that limit – the Commonwealth has the power, it chooses not to use it in a childish attempt to avoid being blamed

    Dereliction of duty does not cancel responsibility

  15. Bucephalus says:
    Tuesday, September 1, 2020 at 12:55 pm

    They are Australian Citizens.

    —————–

    they are letting others who are not Australian citizens in as well, those who are using Australia as a transit stop over

    If the borders were closed there would be no transit stop overs

  16. Scott says:
    Tuesday, September 1, 2020 at 1:00 pm

    “If the borders were closed there would be no transit stop overs”

    Do you want zero flights and no shipping?

  17. “It is our professional opinion that the stage 4 lockdown policy has caused unprecedented negative economic and social outcomes in people, which in themselves are having negative health outcomes,” the doctors say in the letter.”

    ———————————————–

    Are these Newsltd hacks doctors?

  18. Bucephalus says:
    Tuesday, September 1, 2020 at 1:06 pm

    Do you want zero flights and no shipping?

    ———————

    So you admitting Morrison deliberately misled the public ,when he claimed Australia borders were closed (state of emergency) in March

  19. Danama Papers @ #917 Tuesday, September 1st, 2020 – 12:58 pm

    Bucephalus @ #910 Tuesday, September 1st, 2020 – 10:53 am

    “Senior doctors across Melbourne are urging politicians not to support a state of emergency extension, saying the move threatens to “destroy” the health and wellbeing of fed-up Victorians.

    This is being led by a urologist, a leading expert on piss and (possibly) wind.

    More effort required Dobbin. D-.

    He’s worried Melbourne peeps can’t have a piss behind a bush any more? 😆

    Anyway, NCAnewswire = News Corpse Australia newswire, which they created when they gutted AAP for being too impartial and reporting the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth. 🙂

  20. Bucephalus @ #910 Tuesday, September 1st, 2020 – 12:53 pm

    “Senior doctors across Melbourne are urging politicians not to support a state of emergency extension, saying the move threatens to “destroy” the health and wellbeing of fed-up Victorians.

    In a letter to Premier Daniel Andrews, seen by NCA NewsWire, 13 medical practitioners outlined their concerns about the State Government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

    They say it is “vital” stage four restrictions are lifted on September 13, believe “an alternative medical response” is required and highlight key data they think is being “excluded”.

    “It is our professional opinion that the stage 4 lockdown policy has caused unprecedented negative economic and social outcomes in people, which in themselves are having negative health outcomes,” the doctors say in the letter.”

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/breaking-news/victorian-doctors-pen-desperate-letter-to-dan-andrews-about-controversial-state-of-emergency-bill/news-story/477352005ec852b6dd4b0e8f31f97441

    There are 31,229 medical practitioners in Victoria (June 2020)

    So 13 would be, let’s see, something like 0.04%, so …. why exactly is this news? The news is that they could only get 13.

  21. I know a lot of gullible people who fell to Morrison’s lie about Australia being closed

    They are still surprise this day that there are international flights allowed into and out of Australia , or Australians can leave Australia

  22. a.v

    It also depends on whether the same cohort were interviewed in the same way. If this was so (and I don’t know) than all of your qualifiers are unnecessary.

    In other words, if the two graphs compare like with like, there is no issue.

  23. The basic arguement the doctors are using is that there are less deaths than a normal flu season. If we didn’t have lockdown the deaths would have been exponentially higher.
    Most people think that you have to be intelligent to be a doctor, this letter disproves that theory.
    I,also note most of them practice in areas that would have been negatively affected by the limits to surgery.

  24. Assantdj @ #930 Tuesday, September 1st, 2020 – 1:19 pm

    The basic arguement the doctors are using is that there are less deaths than a normal flu season. If we didn’t have lockdown the deaths would have been exponentially higher.
    Most people think that you have to be intelligent to be a doctor, this letter disproves that theory.
    I,also note most of them practice in areas that would have been negatively affected by the limits to surgery.

    As I stated recently, and I’m sure Itza and rhwombat could verify this, there are a lot of people who become doctors because they got the marks in the HSC or equivalent, that being due to the fact they had no life and studied fastidiously and relentlessly, not that they were particularly intelligent.

  25. From Newscorpse “doctors”:

    “It is our professional opinion that the stage 4 lockdown policy has caused unprecedented negative economic and social outcomes in people, which in themselves are having negative health outcomes,” the doctors say in the letter.”

    ———————————————–
    From some of Dio’s earlier comments I wonder if these doctors are real, but all private specialists bleating about their own loss of work and cash from private elective surgery being cancelled during the Stage 4 lockdown?

    Keating had a quote about self-interest that proves a remarkably accurate guide to human behaviour.

  26. Biden campaign staffers donated money to bail out rioters in Minnesota and Kamala Harris tweeted out the link for online donations to do as well but now they’re going hard against the rioting, looting and burning. Funny that.

  27. Alpha Zero says:
    Tuesday, September 1, 2020 at 1:26 pm
    “What do you call somebody who only gets 50% on their medical exams?

    Dr.
    (Probably one of the 13).”

    They are all Senior Specialist Doctors but you stick to immature inaccurate sledging you cockwomble.

  28. Assantdj @ #932 Tuesday, September 1st, 2020 – 1:22 pm

    C@tmomma
    I gather your not thinking of selling the Clarice Cliff

    Maybe. It’s not even my favourite type of collectible. I have decided I much prefer Caseyware. I also possess, in fully working order, an Art Deco electric jug with intact Bakelite lid! Which I never use, of course. Quite a few old books, going all the way back to 1883, and an Oz #1 comic.

    My favourite possession is a one-of-a-kind (afaik), Art Deco chrome desk light in the shape of Mercury, on a plinth, holding a circular globe which contains the light. Still working. 🙂

  29. And the good old Liberal Cheer Squad newspaper, The West, with nothing better to do has its Cheer Leader, Lanai Scarr come up with this gem: “Albanese sailing rough seas………………..Growing chatter about Labor leader ahead of ‘killing season’…………………….Gees, the Liberal Party itself could not write better crap itself…………..It’s all doom and death for Albanese apparently because according to Scarr…………..”The Opposition is restless”………………….she says……………….plus lots of other unattributed comments from Labor insiders – so say……………………And finally, “Chris Bowen, Tanya Plibersek and even Joel Fitsgibbon are all names floated among those who want to keep the chatter alive……..”
    So there you have it………….Labor and LNP on 50-50 in the Newspoll (totally ignored by the West), the WA LOTO all but invisible but, but………….Albo is all but finished – though, she concedes, he will be hard to get rid of………..Oh, and Morrison is, according to her, planning an August election………….good luck with that is all I say……………….The sooner SevenWestMedia goes broke the better…………..

  30. Andrew Greene
    @AndrewBGreene
    Liberal MP Craig Kelly has spruiked the benefits of Hydroxychloroquine during a government party room meeting today – perhaps his largest audience on the topic so far
    1:27 PM · Sep 1, 2020 from Canberra, Australian Capital Territory·Twitter for iPhone
    4
    Retweets
    1
    Quote Tweet
    7
    Likes
    Samantha Maiden
    @samanthamaiden
    ·
    1m
    Replying to
    @AndrewBGreene
    Are you kidding? His Facebook is often number one most shared non news website

  31. Socrates says:
    Tuesday, September 1, 2020 at 1:24 pm

    “From some of Dio’s earlier comments I wonder if these doctors are real”

    Here you go:

    “The letter – a combined effort from urologists, psychiatrists and surgeons – sent to the Premier’s office on Monday compared coronavirus data with other serious medical concerns.

    Well-known Royal Melbourne Hospital transplant surgeon Dr Bob Millar, Monash Hospital orthopaedic surgeon Dr Jon Bare and Nossell Institute for Global Health public health physician Nathan Grills were among the contributors.

    Professors John Murtagh, Haydn Walters and Kuruvilla George, Dr Peter Denton, Dr William Edwards, Dr Andrew Taylor, Dr Michael Knight, Dr John Mathai and Dr Eamonn Mathieson also had their say.”

    Why don’t you all ring them up and tell them they only just passed Medical School, probably aren’t real, only care about money and don’t know what they are talking about – you arrogant fucks.

  32. Liberal MP Craig Kelly has spruiked the benefits of Hydroxychloroquine during a government party room meeting today

    And didn’t Morrison have anything to say? Or Greg Hunt the so-called Health minister?
    Why are they scared of him?

  33. There is a state poll in Tasmania. Wow.
    Lib 54 +11
    Labor 24
    Green 12
    Others 10
    Pref Premier Gutwein 70- White 23
    Projected Seats – 15-16 Lib/6-7 ALP/2-3 Green
    Won’t last till the next election but another Covid bounce.

  34. I’ve also got a convict-era handmade candlestick holder, a convict-made birdcage and a Victorian-era Australian kitchen dresser, fully restored by my mate, a chippie.

    I’m thinking about donating the convict-era items to the Powerhouse Museum before they get broken, now that the NSW Coalition government has decided to leave the museum where it is.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *