Essential Research coronavirus latest, Roy Morgan federal voting intention

Essential Research finds public support for governments’ handling of coronavirus not quite what it was, while Roy Morgan records the Coalition moving into a commanding lead.

As reported by The Guardian, the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll finds approval of Scott Morrison’s handling of COVID-19 at 61%, which is off from a high of 72% in June. Approval ratings for state governments in New South Wales as well as Victoria are also trending gently downwards, with both having lost two points in the past fortnight, leaving them at 59% and 47% respectively. The Western Australian government continues to lead the field on 84%, though this too is down two on last time, with due regard to the very small sample size.

The poll also suggests Australians are unsentimental about civil liberties in the face of COVID-19, with 65% favouring closing the border to all foreign travellers and 52% supporting dedicated quarantine facilities for convalescents. Concerning outbreaks at aged care clinics, 42% blamed the providers, 30% the federal goverment and 28% state governments, and 70% believed the situation had been aggravated by long-term under-funding. The poll also gauged support for taxpayers to underwrite new gas infrastructure at 27% for, 27% against and 32% for neither. The poll was conducted from 1068 respondents from Thursday to Sunday; the pollster will publish its full report will be published later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. It should be noted that the 61% approval rating for handling of COVID-19 related to “the government” rather than Scott Morrison.

We also had on Friday one of the occasional Roy Morgan polls on federal voting intention, which finds the Coalition lead out to 54-46 from 51.5-48.5 when the last such poll was published in mid-July. The Coalition is up 2.5% on the primary vote to 46%, with Labor down one to 32.5%, the Greens steady on 11% and One Nation up half a point to 3%. The poll was conducted over the previous two weekends by phone and online interviewing from a sample of 2841.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,705 comments on “Essential Research coronavirus latest, Roy Morgan federal voting intention”

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  1. Maybe the PPP poll in Texas is interesting as it does add weight to it being a close one (atm) and will force Trump to spend some cash there. But hesitant to read more than that into a B rated pollster in a state poll of 700.

  2. SK:

    Yep I’d also expect to see some further polling after the GOP convention.

    Interesting discussions I’ve been listening to of late and a couple of schools of thought.

    1. No post DNC bounce for Biden as there aren’t many gettable votes left – gettable in the sense of people who haven’t already made up their minds (David Jolly, ex-GOP sitting member and never-Trumper).

    2. The tightening of the polls is Republican voters coming home – coming home in the sense that they may be somewhat disengaged but re-engage as the election draws nearer (Mike Madrid, Lincoln Project never-Trumper).

  3. Not sure we should put too much weight on those polls.
    Waiting for the big guns to come out which I am guessing will be after the RNC.

    All polls over the next couple of weeks should be taken with a grain of salt (in particular, any that show a sharp movement.) Let any convention bumps (if they don’t cancel each other out) run their course.

  4. Zerlo @ #141 Tuesday, August 25th, 2020 – 10:30 am

    NBN continues to be a failure “NBN Co agrees to pay up for slow internet, poor service”:
    https://www.itnews.com.au/news/nbn-co-agrees-to-pay-up-for-slow-internet-poor-service-552041

    “NBN Co has agreed to pay daily rebates on slow, congested and underperforming services, as well as for missed appointments and service faults, in a drastic U-turn.”.

    Faster, Cheaper, Quicker….?

    Oh the political hay Labor would now be making if only they had maintained the rage over the coalition’s NBN debacle and differentiated the Labor fibre NBN from the Turnbull/Abbott MTM NBN. As it is the majority of people associate the NBN (rightly so) with Labor but, if their NBN is shit, well, you know another Labor stuff up etc……and all that crapolla that the coalition have effectively milked for years.
    There are a lot of if onlys’ withe Labor these days….

  5. The NBN is something the libs fully own.
    Labor if it had a Shadow minister for Future Technolgoies or something fun like that wip up a lot on that issue.
    Everyone is working from home. Probably for another year. and the probably to a greater extent from now on. So why did the Libs have such poor forsite to use copper.
    If they get this wrong, what else have the gotten wrong.
    Pivot to main points etc

  6. No wonder kids have to get counselling. Life is so unfair.

    The Today Show
    @TheTodayShow
    · 4m
    Victorian kids will miss out on Woolworth’s new ‘Ooshie’ Disney collection until current lockdown restrictions ease. Is this fair? #9Today

  7. “Victorian kids will miss out on Woolworth’s new ‘Ooshie’ Disney collection until current lockdown restrictions ease. Is this fair? ”

    That’s it! Chairman Dan has gone TOO FAR! Won’t somebody PLEASE think of the CHILDREN!!!

  8. south @ #156 Tuesday, August 25th, 2020 – 10:56 am

    The NBN is something the libs fully own.
    Labor if it had a Shadow minister for Future Technolgoies or something fun like that wip up a lot on that issue.
    Everyone is working from home. Probably for another year. and the probably to a greater extent from now on. So why did the Libs have such poor forsite to use copper.
    If they get this wrong, what else have the gotten wrong.
    Pivot to main points etc

    Wrong.
    Small business operator in town blames Rudd Labor for her crap NBN.
    When challenged by Mundo it turns out she doesn’t know the difference between fibre and copper node. Doesn’t understand the tech at all. Just knows ‘Labor brought in the NBN’ Malcolm did his best with what he inherited…..etc. Malcolm ‘explained what a mess it was’….etc….Pink Batts…..School Halls…….etc…….this stuff doesn’t magically disappear.

    Those in the know get the NBN coalition debacle fiasco botched bunglement.
    John and Mary Citizen don’t.

    If Labor had an ounce of fight they would have pounced on this and ridden it all the way to the next (the past 3?) election/s.

  9. lizzie @ #159 Tuesday, August 25th, 2020 – 10:58 am

    No wonder kids have to get counselling. Life is so unfair.

    The Today Show
    @TheTodayShow
    · 4m
    Victorian kids will miss out on Woolworth’s new ‘Ooshie’ Disney collection until current lockdown restrictions ease. Is this fair? #9Today

    I’d be saying, Yay! Less bloody landfill with 2 minute wonders for kids.

  10. lizzie @ #161 Tuesday, August 25th, 2020 – 8:58 am

    No wonder kids have to get counselling. Life is so unfair.

    The Today Show
    @TheTodayShow
    · 4m
    Victorian kids will miss out on Woolworth’s new ‘Ooshie’ Disney collection until current lockdown restrictions ease. Is this fair? #9Today

    Only because they have told them, otherwise they may have been none the wiser.

  11. mundo @ #164 Tuesday, August 25th, 2020 – 11:06 am

    south @ #156 Tuesday, August 25th, 2020 – 10:56 am

    The NBN is something the libs fully own.
    Labor if it had a Shadow minister for Future Technolgoies or something fun like that wip up a lot on that issue.
    Everyone is working from home. Probably for another year. and the probably to a greater extent from now on. So why did the Libs have such poor forsite to use copper.
    If they get this wrong, what else have the gotten wrong.
    Pivot to main points etc

    Wrong.
    Small business operator in town blames Rudd Labor for her crap NBN.
    When challenged by Mundo it turns out she doesn’t know the difference between fibre and copper node. Doesn’t understand the tech at all. Just knows ‘Labor brought in the NBN’ Malcolm did his best with what he inherited…..etc. Malcolm ‘explained what a mess it was’….etc….Pink Batts…..School Halls…….etc…….this stuff doesn’t magically disappear.

    Those in the know get the NBN coalition debacle fiasco botched bunglement.
    John and Mary Citizen don’t.

    If Labor had an ounce of fight they would have pounced on this and ridden it all the way to the next (the past 3?) election/s.

    South, I agree the coalition owns the MTM NBN no question.
    It’s pity the punters don’t realise there was the original FTTP NBN build which was far superior.
    Now it’s just NBN same same.
    It drives Mundo bonkers expplaining to people….even now in 2020 for crisakes.

  12. Ed Husic questioning trade agreements. Good!

    He wants to see Labor look beyond energy and climate, to broaden its appeal to the type of blue-collar manufacturing workers in his area – with a discussion about international trade agreements a big part of that.

    ‘‘Some workers would question why we sign up to so many trade agreements and whether the claims about those agreements stack up. I don’t think we should feel pressured to sign up to agreements just to sidestep political pain,’’ Mr Husic said.

    ‘‘The Coalition hammered us on modelling for climate change, but they can’t show modelling for trade agreements. We haven’t seen much movement in jobless numbers, wage growth has been sh-thouse, and underemployment is soaring.

    ‘‘I’m sceptical of signing agreement after agreement with little evidence they’ve delivered for workers.’’

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2020/08/25/ed-husic-labor-needs-new-plan-to-avoid-more-election-losses/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020200825

  13. lizzie says:
    Tuesday, August 25, 2020 at 10:34 am
    “Has every PM always rudely turned his/her back when the Opposition Leader is speaking? Tony Abbott too? Can’t remember.”

    Yes, Rudd and Gillard did it too.

  14. Labor needs to come up with a good analogy to help the public understand what the federal government is doing.
    The aged care crisis, the failures of quarantine, the non payment of benefits to all are the result of inactions of the federal government that the individual states have to manage.

    An analogy to bushfires works for me. A lightning strike in a national forest causes a blaze, that the national government allows to burn. When it becomes a widfire and hits farm and community land the state becomes responsible. Morrison and co are there blaming the states for inadequate preparation and kindly offer to help. What people need to understand is if they had put out the initial blaze the states wouldn’t have a problem.

    The same applies to aged care, if the homes had been well managed, the virus wouldn’t have spread so much and the state wouldn’t have had to manage hundreds who required hospitalisation and subsequent death.
    If a bespoke quarantine program had been developed and resourced by the federal government using border force and ADF the virus wouldn’t have infiltrated the community requiring the state governments to manage a crisis.
    If all people had been offered financial assistance to self isolate if ill the spread of the disease into both the community and aged care would have been slowed or even stopped.

    Morrison wants the public to believe he is doing a great job and he is. A great job of devolving responsibility onto others, and then he gets praised for offering to help and solve the problem he created.

  15. Sadly have to agree with mundo about the NBN.

    Most people don’t realise how much of a mess Turnbull made of it switching everything over. They don’t understand that switching design mid-build is an expensive proposition. They don’t understand that the network is now more complicated, less reliable, slower and more expensive than it needed to be. They don’t understand that the the Coalition is the one who gave retailers the go ahead to sell plans to customers that the physical connection couldn’t actually support.

    Because they don’t understand any of this, they will put any problems down to what they believe was Labor’s shambles and thank the Coalition that they got even the poor service they have.

  16. Yep, have to agree sadly. When Abbott tasked Turnbull with “destroying the NBN’, he couldn’t have imagined how successful he would be.

    What a disaster for the country, and what a disgraceful bit of politics.

  17. Assantsj,
    the only problem with your bushfire analogy is that actually happened.

    Labor could get far but calling the coalition childish in it’s behavior. Pft Adults in Charge etc. more like teenagers taking the car out and driving it into a wall.
    Running away from scrutiny etc.

  18. I think it’s safe to say that all PMs, at least in my memory, have turned their backs on their opponents in Parliament at some time.

  19. I think it’s safe to say that all PMs, at least in my memory, have turned their backs on their opponents in Parliament at some time.

    I think it’s an “eating your salad with the wrong fork” level of controversy.

  20. Shellbell says:
    Tuesday, August 25, 2020 at 11:05 am
    “More little bits of plastic – they should be banned”

    Because they’ll be washed out of a third world river, apparently?

  21. Spray
    “Great numbers again, relatively low testing though.”

    Yes, and those “under investigation” (unknown source) cases from previous days tell us that the virus is bubbling away somewhere in Sydney.

  22. mundosays:
    Tuesday, August 25, 2020 at 9:45 am

    ‘Opposition leader Tony Abbott said today the Prime minister’s announcement…..’

    This is how the PMs ‘announcement’ would be reported.

    I could mention confirmation bias but…

    So where are you examples of this happening right now with all the other Opposition leaders around the country? Am I unable to see all the articles in The Age that feature Michael O’Brien? Or are they not there?

    Likewise the Opposition leaders in ALP governed states like Qld, WA and the NT. Are they all getting the Abbott-treatment that you expect of Albo and the Fed ALP?

    If not then maybe confirmation bias comes into it a bit. Or, it’s just not as prevalent as you believe it is/was (not doubting it happens at Newscorp so let’s agree on that) and expecting it to happen now is expecting a bit much when no other Opposition leader of any party is receiving such exposure.

    Or is there are Alternative-World Poll Bludger where LNPMundo is making the same comments as you about all the Opposition LNP leaders?

    But I’ll wager that the Vic Lib social media feeds are full of their commentary opposing just about everything Andrews is doing. So, they are saying it, but the media is not giving them all 80 pages and 30 minutes of screen time to publicise it. The very criticism you make of the media with regards to Albo and the Fed ALP.

    I don’t disagree with your passion about wanting more out of Albo. I may even agree with you that, perhaps, he is not up to the job. I, however, understand his current predicament and hope he still has the fight left in him. If not, then hopefully he will move aside, or be moved aside, for someone who has. It’s a slow-moving beast and this is sometimes how it is.

  23. Kakuru @ #182 Tuesday, August 25th, 2020 – 11:29 am

    Spray
    “Great numbers again, relatively low testing though.”

    Yes, and those “under investigation” (unknown source) cases from previous days tell us that the virus is bubbling away somewhere in Sydney.

    Yeah, but we’ve been saying that for, what? six or eight weeks now? And so far no explosion in numbers. Think a lot of credit has to go to the contact tracers.

  24. ” It was the best speech I have heard Albanese give in a very long time.”

    ***

    Well I guess that’s one positive about Albo setting the bar so low for himself – almost anything would be an improvement at this stage.

  25. ”Three in NSW. One in HQ, two close contacts of known cases“.

    Still trending down.
    Seven day average now 4.6, down from 17.1 at the start of the month.
    Certainly not out of the woods but hopeful.

  26. Barney in Tanjung Bunga says: Tuesday, August 25, 2020 at 11:36 am –

    Makes me wonder if The Rodent was using his independently controllable eyebrow hairs to give Thallium’s (Keating’s nickname for the slow-acting dope) little brain a bit of tickle time.

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