The Australian today brings us the latest set of breakdowns from three months’ accumulation of Newspoll results, and the second to be published since its ambit was extended beyond state, age and gender to education, income, language and religion. Highlights:
• Labor is credited with a lead of 51-49 in New South Wales, compared with 50-50 in the April-June quarter and 51.8-48.2 to the Coalition at the election, and its lead in Victoria is out to 56-44, compared with 55-45 and 53.1-46.9. Once again though, Queensland is Labor’s sticking point, with the Coalition lead recorded at 59-41, compared with 56-44 last quarter and 58.4-41.6 at the election. The Coalition leads 54-46 in Western Australia, compared with 55-45 last quarter and 55.6-44.4 at the election, and is now at level pegging in South Australia, compared with 53-47 to Labor last poll and 50.7-49.3 to Labor at the election.
• The Coalition leads 53-47 among men and trails 51-49 among women, compared with 52-48 to the Coalition among men and 52-48 to Labor among women last quarter.
• The age effect is a little more modest in the latest poll, with Labor leading 58-42 among the 18-34s and 53-47 among the 35-49s, respectively compared with 62-38 and 52-48 last quarter. The Coalition leads 54-46 among the 50-64s and 63-37 among the 65-plus, compared with 53-47 and 62-38 last quarter.
• Whereas the result was a perfect 50-50 among each of the three education cohorts last time, this time the Coalition leads 53-47 among those with no tertiary qualifications and 51-49 among those with TAFE and technical qualifications, while Labor leads 52-48 among those with university degrees.
• The last poll has 50-50 splits among the three lowest income cohorts, whereas the Coalition leads 57-43 among those with household incomes of $150,000 or higher. Last quarter, it was 50-50 among those on $50,000 or lower, 52-48 to the Labor among those on $50,000 to $100,000, 52-48 to the Coalition on those from $100,000 to $150,000, and 53-47 to the Coalition on $150,000 and higher.
• The Coalition leads 52-48 among those who speak only English at home, out from 51-49, and Labor leads 56-44 among non-English speakers, in from 57-43.
• The Coalition leads 60-40 among Christians, out from 58-42, and Labor leads 57-43 among those with no religion, in from 58-42.
The full results can be viewed here, I think without a paywall. The results are compiled from YouGov’s Newspoll surveys from June 3 to August 8, with a combined sample of 6392.
Simon Katich @ #2806 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 1:32 pm
Just like Parramatta is on the Northern Beaches.
The proprietors of the Kulnura and Mangrove Mountain shops, both of whom I know well, don’t think they are on the Central Coast, but what would they know?
Do you really think that the ABC story was informative and useful? Or , on the contrary, misleading and damaging? I am absolutely certain it was the latter. What useful purpose did it serve? My elderly next door neighbour was freaked, and called out to me through the fence to register her alarm. C@t was triggered, and my sister rang to ask whether I had heard. You, of course, can think whatever you please.
The facts are that a group of Sydney western suburbs domiciled, manual labourers, who shared transport to their place of work, and whose original source of infection is not apparently known, became infected with the novel Corona virus. No-one else at their place of work was infected. The Central Coast is totally unaffected, and it has no place in the story which is any way relevant, or ‘news’.
Since c@t apparently thinks the AEC is relevant, I wonder what she would make of an ABC announcement of an outbreak in Barwon electorate. Do you think the residents of Narrabri, or of Broken Hill should be concerned? They are only 821 km apart. My feeling about that is that the vast majority of the population cannot name their electorate, and that the AEC has nothing whatsoever to do with an individual’s idea of the locale with which they identify; of ‘where I live’. Residents of Peats Ridge, Mangrove Mountain, Kulnura and Bucketty think of the Central Coast as being ‘down there’, and talk about going ‘down to the coast’ for a big shop, or a surf or whatever.
lizzies
They do love the word ‘plan’. Amy counted 8 from Colbeck. It was a standout feature of the 2013 election campaign. The Mad Monk and crew,both in person and brochures,repeatedly claimed “we have a plan” . What the actual “plan” involved was however never explained. As the media lizards didn’t seem interested in asking I suppose they never felt the need .
Morrison is today announcing a new new Government scheme to the Parliament to be called JobShirker. Under this scheme the Government will take no responsibility for anything that goes bad, will make bold announcements of intentions and then underfund or have the Public service refuse to implement any such policies.
Specific areas of need to be targetted include Aged care management, Protecting our borders, Maintaining a sustenance existence for casual workers and ensuring our medical facilities have the resources to protect all Australians during this pandemic.
It is expected that this JobShirker could be extended beyon this immediate remit.
Had a peek at The Australian and top headline was interesting. A critical quote, probably quoting someone from Labor but no hint as to who it is from. Just a stark “not good enough”.
.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fnews%2Fcoronavirus-australia-live-news-australia-hk-embassy-bars-kiwi-spouse-from-queensland-return%2Fnews-story%2F4be362ea73f7197278c8f16666bbfdcf&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium
Greensborough Growler @ #2952 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 1:57 pm
Well done.
That post is truly Shovel-ready (geddit?).
“Firefox was banned for pasting entire newspaper articles after I had told him not to do so about a million times. I will allow him to post unless he does this again, or subjects me to one stupid fucking word about fair use copyright provisions.”
***
Haha soooo tempted 😛 I only posted that whole article because it was such a nice follow-up to that tweet of AOC’s which her teacher responded to. Was a good read and quite heartwarming. A good news story from the US for a change. Anyway, yeah I can accept that 🙂
“So his claims of his having a better understanding of technology is what allowed him to finangle his way back on to the blog is simply bulldust?
The door was open all the time?”
***
Oh no, he banned me alright. I think I’ll leave it at that for William’s sake 😉
Any chance of nath coming off probation seeing that Firefox can wander back?
Keep dreaming the dream, Nath.
How’s this for a treat. Green Day plays my 2nd fav Nirvana song:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=peSDBPxclYE
It’s just hard to participate. I’m not slanderous or anything. Nothing to worry about from me.
A warning about the danger of public transport and spreading The Plague.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/122545557/coronavirus-all-auckland-bus-cases-travelled-on-same-service
Karvelas asks Chalmers about Fitzgibbons views re a Labor split and Chalmers says he disagrees with JF.
So it seems a split isn’t going to happen.
Therefore Labor has committed to trying to be everything to everyone.
I just can’t see how they can achieve this commitment.
Victoria @ #2753 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 11:33 am
Weather played an important direct and indirect part in the pandemic success in the NT.
Direct because it hit in the middle of the hot humid monsoon season, which conditions are unfavourable to the virus transmission & viability outside the host. Indirect because that is also off-peak tourist season, so there was a much reduced major transmission vector.
If it had hit just 3-4 months later it could have been much harder to contain.
But the Gunner Labor government were also onto it hard and fast. So far we have zero COVID-19 deaths and local community transmissions. That did not happen entirely through luck, the government deserves serious credit for their critical role in it, which they got on Saturday night.
As to criticisms about NT finances, I think what this election result shows there is that voters do not always rank economics & finance above all else, especially core stuff like health. I have no doubt this win was largely driven by the Gunner government’s outstanding handling of the pandemic, in combination with the CLP’s failure to either understand that, or effectively counter it.
Socrates @ #2890 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 2:00 pm
I am genuinely surprised at how badly the CLP have done this time, and their handling of the result has been dismal and juvenile. Lia Finocchario, among others, is clearly a less substantial politician than I had previously thought.
NT Labor are now the great Labor success story in Australia this century (so far). Since winning in 2001 they have held office in the NT for all but one term, and have held at least 2/4 federal NT seats, and sometimes 3/4.
The CLP are now a pale shadow of their all powerful 20th century incarnation, and the other non-Labor forces are not looking too flash either.
The Territory Alliance did get a big increase in their overall vote (13% of primaries), but it was off a very low base (3% last time), and they currently have no seats from it, even managing to lose their leader’s seat (Terry Mills in Blain).
Not clear where the CLP and especially the TA go from here.
I will leave those who claim the NT is a failed state to jabber amongst themselves.
––––––––
D @ #2840 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 1:32 pm
I know it is completely unfair and shouldn’t matter, but Albo’s natural physical voice doesn’t project well or cut through, and not sure that can be sufficiently compensated for with conviction & vocal training.
Poor old firefox. He can’t even organise his own permanent banning from PB. The Greens are truly hopeless at organising anything.
nath @ #2949 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 4:04 pm
If it was nath -and only nath – with a commitment to ditch all the other alter ego’s – I’d support nath being afforded full commenting privileges.
William Bowe @ #2960 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 2:07 pm
https://youtu.be/Soa3gO7tL-c
I will compliment Albo on one thing.
Good choice of suit today. Jacket fits and he should exclusively stick to dark suits from now on.
Other than that, generrally, If my family member had died due to COVID at a public nursing home due to the minister not taking action. I’d probably throw a brick at the minister.
I feel like labor got the level of outrage wrong. Old people, whom we’re meant to give a shit about died! And the minister responsible didn’t know the numbers. Labor politicians should have been yelling with white hot anger. It would have been apt. And if they got called on it by the media or anyone. They should have directly asked the person calling them out, if your parent died in aged care due to neglect form the government how would you react.
And that quip about Morrison being the real quiet Australian. I think it’d cut through more with the sharks voters if someone would just call him a fuckhead directly for his mismanagement of this country over the last two years.
SA Libs leaking on each other.
https://www.fiveaa.com.au/david-and-will-2/leaked-document-spells-trouble-for-the-liberal-party-says-david-penberthy/
JM @ #2955 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 4:12 pm
Sadly this is a problem for Albo, as it was with Bill.
Communication, communication, communication.
Rex Douglas @ #2964 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 4:15 pm
Just in case you don’t know Rex, you do not run this blog so any support is wishful thinking.
Victoria @ #2942 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 3:47 pm
Mr Albanese didn’t but could have said earlier today.
Mundo is prepared to call it now.
If today is the best Labor has after 2 months preparation and plenty of amo.
We’re fucked.
JM says:
Monday, August 24, 2020 at 4:12 pm
“I have no doubt this win was largely driven by the Gunner government’s outstanding handling of the pandemic, in combination with the CLP’s failure to either understand that, or effectively counter it.”
It has everything to do with the virus effect and nothing else. The CLP had two sitting members. TWO. They could do fuck all.
“I am genuinely surprised at how badly the CLP have done this time”
They’ve gone from two members to at the moment seven – that’s more than triple their numbers in Parliament. That’s a 350% increase in their numbers. That’s bloody marvellous under the circumstances with the virus and TA plus the ALP to go up against.
Next election, assuming no virus to contend with as an hysterical issue like it is now, the CLP are well placed to take back a number more seats if not government. I have said before the CLP are pushing poo up hill with a pointy stick in the NT so they are doing extremely well.
“I will leave those who claim the NT is a failed state to jabber amongst themselves.”
It is a failed state – financially mendicant, totally reliant on the rest of Australia to save its financial bacon and with failed communities throughout it.
Nice place to live for three to four months a year.
The Silver Bodgie @ #2960 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 4:24 pm
Of course. I don’t disagree.
Bucephalus @ #2974 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 4:27 pm
250% actually.
Bucephalus @ #2974 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 4:27 pm
Just like all the other states then.
The Silver Bodgie @ #2971 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 4:24 pm
It’s only people who benefit from nath’s presence that want him back.
And Firefox just used devious means to come back, he wasn’t allowed back by Mr Bowe and I imagine that he will take a dim view of Firefox’s behaviour, especially as he doesn’t seem to have learned his lesson.
I must say, as a Victorian, I’m quite excited by the prospects of all the stimulus spending and projects that is being mooted at the moment. The opportunities should provide a huge social boost to my state.
How great was the welcome to country at the dreamtime game last night?
https://www.afl.com.au/video/489113/richard-fejo-delivers-epic-welcome-to-dreamtime-in-darwin?videoId=489113&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1598090225001
ajm @ #2977 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 4:33 pm
Just like WA, itself, who regularly gets out the begging bowl for the Eastern States to hand over our hard-earned to keep them afloat. Especially when the Liberals are in power! 😆
That was true of WA for a hundred years or so C@t, but not so much in the last couple of decades.
A big win for the Vic Liberal moderates with Bastiaan being shown the door.
How that affects O’Briens continued leadership prospects will be interesting….
The CLP had 16 seats after the 2012 Election, went to 2 in 2016 and are now on about 7.
It’s a long way to the top if you want to win a poll!
If your’e happy and you know it clap your hands……………
Michael Sukkar during Question Time Photograph: Mike Bowers/
Nice, if true!
Tweets Of Intent | ISO bunker
@geeksrulz
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59s
Raf Epstein on ABC radio reports adjusted figures for Victoria is now in 2 digits. 99 new cases.
Rex Douglassays:
Monday, August 24, 2020 at 4:39 pm
A big win for the Vic Liberal moderates with Bastiaan being shown the door.
_______________________
Victoria risks becoming a one party state if the Liberals allowed the conservatives to control Victoria. For the sake of democracy Victoria needs a moderate Liberal division that can appeal to a multicultural population and offer something more than patronage for religious groupings.
GG what no bagpipes?
C@tmomma @ #2978 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 4:35 pm
I hate seeing anyone banned – and I’m almost certain William feels the same.
I remember supporting you once or twice when you were on very shaky ground.
It is 99 net new cases which reflects 116 new cases up to 8pm last night and 17 earlier cases bein taken off because of double counting or retesting etc.
Like its calculation of active cases, some of Vic Health’s methods are hard to understand or unique in Oz.
“It is a failed state – financially mendicant, totally reliant on the rest of Australia to save its financial bacon and with failed communities throughout it.”
***
In making any assessment of the NT one must always remember that most of Darwin was wiped out in 1974 by Cyclone Tracy. It was a massive setback for not only the city but the entire territory too.
Shellbell @ #2989 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 4:45 pm
Listening to St Brett Sutton today I’m expecting numbers to hang around the 100-200 mark for a couple more weeks until highly susceptible workplaces are clear.
Spray @ #2981 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 4:38 pm
And it will likely be true again in the future if China continues its economic destabilisation plan. They could purchase Iron Ore from Vale/Bolsonaro in Brazil. I’m sure he’d encourage Vale to do a great deal for China. And that’s only one possibility. The continent of Africa, which China has pushed into, also holds potential for future deals. Nothing in the future is guaranteed.
poroti @ #2984 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 4:39 pm
He needs to cut back on the black hair dye, just sayin’. Too extreme a colour.
Here’s the abortion cells are ethically compromised letter, with three signatories.
https://twitter.com/cokeefe9/status/1297777711004360706
It’s a pretty poor effort imo. It gives me no concept of how they think this is bad. Using phrases like ‘little girl’ betrays the need to use emotion as some adjunct to the inexplicable. Self promotion along the lines that they encouraged people to comply with COVID restrictions at their own expense ($ !!) without mentioning or giving thanks for jobseeker adds zip to their abortion cells are ethically compromised stance, in fact further suggests they are feeling they’re on weak ground.
If anyone here supports this stance, I would seriously welcome an explanation. I do not understand how the products of an abortion are (in the best words I can find atm) sinful. It’s not like the foetus aborted itself. That’s a miscarriage, which afaik, isn’t sinful.
I would have thought using the cells to do good would be a desired outcome. But no.
Antony Green calls the NT election for a Labor majority. Congratulations to Gunner.
mundo @ #2963 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 4:25 pm
This worth reposting.
ItzaDream @ #2993 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 4:52 pm
The first step towards developing the Soylent Green indsutry.
“And Firefox just used devious means to come back, he wasn’t allowed back by Mr Bowe and I imagine that he will take a dim view of Firefox’s behaviour, especially as he doesn’t seem to have learned his lesson.”
***
Yep, totally devious.
Я взламываю Поллбладжера со своей секретной базы.
Well then, I’m calling it.
The Victorian Liberals are fucked.