Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: June-August

A still greater Coalition lead in Queensland underwrites its modest ascendancy in Newspoll over recent months, according to newly published breakdowns.

The Australian today brings us the latest set of breakdowns from three months’ accumulation of Newspoll results, and the second to be published since its ambit was extended beyond state, age and gender to education, income, language and religion. Highlights:

• Labor is credited with a lead of 51-49 in New South Wales, compared with 50-50 in the April-June quarter and 51.8-48.2 to the Coalition at the election, and its lead in Victoria is out to 56-44, compared with 55-45 and 53.1-46.9. Once again though, Queensland is Labor’s sticking point, with the Coalition lead recorded at 59-41, compared with 56-44 last quarter and 58.4-41.6 at the election. The Coalition leads 54-46 in Western Australia, compared with 55-45 last quarter and 55.6-44.4 at the election, and is now at level pegging in South Australia, compared with 53-47 to Labor last poll and 50.7-49.3 to Labor at the election.

• The Coalition leads 53-47 among men and trails 51-49 among women, compared with 52-48 to the Coalition among men and 52-48 to Labor among women last quarter.

• The age effect is a little more modest in the latest poll, with Labor leading 58-42 among the 18-34s and 53-47 among the 35-49s, respectively compared with 62-38 and 52-48 last quarter. The Coalition leads 54-46 among the 50-64s and 63-37 among the 65-plus, compared with 53-47 and 62-38 last quarter.

• Whereas the result was a perfect 50-50 among each of the three education cohorts last time, this time the Coalition leads 53-47 among those with no tertiary qualifications and 51-49 among those with TAFE and technical qualifications, while Labor leads 52-48 among those with university degrees.

• The last poll has 50-50 splits among the three lowest income cohorts, whereas the Coalition leads 57-43 among those with household incomes of $150,000 or higher. Last quarter, it was 50-50 among those on $50,000 or lower, 52-48 to the Labor among those on $50,000 to $100,000, 52-48 to the Coalition on those from $100,000 to $150,000, and 53-47 to the Coalition on $150,000 and higher.

• The Coalition leads 52-48 among those who speak only English at home, out from 51-49, and Labor leads 56-44 among non-English speakers, in from 57-43.

• The Coalition leads 60-40 among Christians, out from 58-42, and Labor leads 57-43 among those with no religion, in from 58-42.

The full results can be viewed here, I think without a paywall. The results are compiled from YouGov’s Newspoll surveys from June 3 to August 8, with a combined sample of 6392.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,230 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: June-August”

Comments Page 56 of 65
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  1. “Actually the discussions have been far more nuanced since your unnoticed absence.”

    ***

    Nah, it’s just been the usual same old PB but with less diversity of opinion. Seems that there is a concerted effort underway to drive the left off this blog.

  2. ItzaDream @ #2749 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 11:54 am

    C@tmomma @ #2727 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 11:36 am

    ItzaDream,
    I know you like your art, so I am just going to give you an insight into what my eldest son is up to this week. He who saw the writing on the wall when COVID-19 hit Australia in late February/early March, so he booked a plane ticket to America and now he has moved on from there to reside in Oxford, England.

    He’s going with his friend to Rome this week to see an exhibition of the artist, Raphael. We are extremely jealous. 🙂

    Thanks C@t. Lucky lucky. It’s the first time thing isn’t it. The first time in Rome was my first time in Europe, and a feeling never to be erased or supplanted. Suggest too he seek our some Caravagggios, especially at the gorgeous Santa Maria del Popoloat the Piazza del Poppolo (the once main entrance into Rome), looking for the Crucifixion of Peter and the Conversion of Paul. It’s a good time to go I guess, high summer, and tourist numbers down with Covid. Take care, son of C@t.

    Oxford is wonderful. We were there last year. A niece-in-law and aussie researcher bf live there.

    Thanks, Itza, I will send your recommendation off to him now. I’m just grateful for all the times I dragged him to the Art Gallery of NSW when he was a teenager. 🙂

  3. Douglas and Milko @ #2750 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 12:00 pm

    Victoria

    What is interesting to me that despite the outbreak at the hotel quarantine being known and close contacts tested etc., here in Melbourne. The connected clusters grew quickly.
    NSW on the other hand, seems to stay in single digits, despite breaches. It’s all rather odd.

    I am also puzzled by this.

    My theory is that it is climate related.

    Sydney is far more humid than Melbourne, and this probably plays a part in making transmission less easy in Sydney – there is now some evidence that in a dry climate the droplets loaded with virus are smaller on average, and penetrate further into the respiratory system, making infection more likely.

    Sydney is also significantly warmer in winter. On average, we do not bother insulating and heating our homes, particularly for rental accommodation. We tend to just heat a room at a time, when we get home from work – no central heating at all. So, lots of airflow from our uninsulated dwellings – the heating bill is large, but it is only for about 8 weeks or so.

    My European colleagues are always shocked by their first Sydney winter. Warm enough to be out most days with a good jacket, but freezing in the houses and cafes.

    In Melbourne, central heating and good insulation is much more of a necessity.

    Hi D&M, And as an extension of that, and climate related, going out is different in the two cities. When we go out, and especially if we are meeting a group, we mostly pick out door venues – harbour side cafes in Sydney are worth crossing the world for. And (bleeding obvious alert), out doors is more transmission unfriendly. (I’m not saying Melbourne doesn’t have good and attractive out door cafes etc, though there’s bugger all around Albert Park; one only).

    etc

  4. C@tmomma @ #2754 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 12:08 pm

    ItzaDream @ #2749 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 11:54 am

    C@tmomma @ #2727 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 11:36 am

    ItzaDream,
    I know you like your art, so I am just going to give you an insight into what my eldest son is up to this week. He who saw the writing on the wall when COVID-19 hit Australia in late February/early March, so he booked a plane ticket to America and now he has moved on from there to reside in Oxford, England.

    He’s going with his friend to Rome this week to see an exhibition of the artist, Raphael. We are extremely jealous. 🙂

    Thanks C@t. Lucky lucky. It’s the first time thing isn’t it. The first time in Rome was my first time in Europe, and a feeling never to be erased or supplanted. Suggest too he seek our some Caravagggios, especially at the gorgeous Santa Maria del Popoloat the Piazza del Poppolo (the once main entrance into Rome), looking for the Crucifixion of Peter and the Conversion of Paul. It’s a good time to go I guess, high summer, and tourist numbers down with Covid. Take care, son of C@t.

    Oxford is wonderful. We were there last year. A niece-in-law and aussie researcher bf live there.

    Thanks, Itza, I will send your recommendation off to him now. I’m just grateful for all the times I dragged him to the Art Gallery of NSW when he was a teenager. 🙂

    Good on ya Mum.

    Probably too late to suggest he reads Robert Hughes’ (yep, as in Lucy) book “Rome”. Though it should be easily found in Oxford I’m thinking.

  5. Victoria @ #2614 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 9:12 am

    Goodness me.

    See new Tweets
    Conversation
    ABC News
    @abcnews
    Health authorities failed to disclose NSW Central Coast COVID-19 cluster
    Health authorities failed to disclose NSW Central Coast COVID-19 cluster
    Central Coast Health knew about a COVID-19 cluster linked to a Peats Ridge hydroponics farm for almost a week in early August, but did not release the information.
    abc.net.au

    https://amp.abc.net.au/article/12582628?__twitter_impression=true

    A ridiculous beat up. Peats Ridge is not on the Central Coast. It is an isolated ridge, with thick bush either side, 25km from the coast, along which the old (pre Expressway) Pacific Highway runs through citrus orchards, chook sheds and a few hydroponic farms. The infected people all live in Western Sydney. Nobody who lives in Peats Ridge or on the Central Coast has been infected by those unfortunate infected few.

    There is not now, nor was there ever, a Central Coast cluster. Straight out false headline, and utter bullshit!

  6. This is the hellhole of utter damnation that Donald Trump has led America into:

    Acyn Torabi
    @Acyn

    Guest on Fox News says Dr. Fauci’s actions led to deaths of hundreds of thousands of Americans

  7. Not just Trump.

    CNN columnist Chris Cibizilla is releasing a book Tuesday US time outlining Fox News role in attacking the scientific evidence of preventing the virus spread.

  8. Peats Ridge is not on the Central Coast.

    Yeah it is.
    You could say it is Central Coast hinterland. But still Central Coast.

  9. Robbie @ #2751 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 10:01 am

    “Actually the discussions have been far more nuanced since your unnoticed absence.”

    ***

    Nah, it’s just been the usual same old PB but with less diversity of opinion. Seems that there is a concerted effort underway to drive the left off this blog.

    See no nuance, no self-reflection, just an intransigent view of your own opinions.

  10. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #2765 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 12:26 pm

    Robbie @ #2751 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 10:01 am

    “Actually the discussions have been far more nuanced since your unnoticed absence.”

    ***

    Nah, it’s just been the usual same old PB but with less diversity of opinion. Seems that there is a concerted effort underway to drive the left off this blog.

    See no nuance, no self-reflection, just an intransigent view of your own opinions.

    So bad he had to find a way to get back on to PB. 😆

  11. I don’t know what all this means, but it doesn’t sound good.

    Conor Duffy
    @conorduffynews
    BREAKING: A senior source at @rmit has expressed concern that a time the uni is bracing for potentially hundreds more job losses a blockchain hub labelled an offshoot of @TheIPA receiving about $8.6 million in funds appears to be untouched

    The source says this was not put to competitive tender and at the time 5 of the original 9 researchers were IPA members or fellows. IPA member Aaron Lane who had to resign from the liberal party and lost work at Deakin over homophobic tweets (from 2012) is now part of the team

    The block chain hub promises it is crucial to Australia’s future business and finance needs

  12. Victoria
    In Victoria they didn’t know the infection was spreading from the hotels until they did the genome testing, by which time the security guards had spread it via large family gatherings into schools, aged care homes, towers and churches.
    In Sydney a hotel worker became infected and as he was tested the guards as contacts also got tested, prior to it mass spreading.

    While ventilation may have played a part for my mind it was more luck, in that the early case was a worker who had a responsible employer. The fact the 2nd guard has breached his self isolation order twice shows how little,care some people have for the wider community.

  13. Same same with the Local Government council it comes under:

    Locality/Suburb Local Govt Area Ward
    Peats Ridge Central Coast Council Gosford West Ward

  14. The truth is Victoria is Australia’s worst state in containing the virus.

    It’s a combination of bad luck. Bad employment practise. The weather and density of the population.

    However be in no doubt the UK and the United States wishes it was Victoria in relation to the pandemic.

  15. Mundo
    Morrison has achieved his own goals, everyday from now is a bonus, the conductor’s job no longer available.
    The perks are all in place, the curry ready.
    It’s hardly the fault of Labor nor Albanese that Morrison continues to reap the benefits of voter largesse and media ineptitude.
    The finale could come at any time but remains of little concern for the curry connoisseur, Morrison having remained true to his ambition to be the conductor of his own good fortune.
    The good fortune of the nation? Nah.
    Everyday as the newly purchased ferries navigate the harbour beneath Morrison’s current abode, Morrison has been heard to exclaim ” but for the…… am I”

  16. You guys are great.

    Focus areas:

    Curry – that’s bad, apparently.
    Trump – that’s bad
    Victorian Liberal Party – bad, who knew?
    Greens v ALP, bad, obviously
    ALP Left v ALP Right, the worstest.
    Climate effects on virus transmission- like you’re scientists. Great work.

    Keep it up. #winning

    I do enjoy the laughs as clearly does Mundo.

  17. phoenixRED @ #2770 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 12:31 pm

    guytaursays: Monday, August 24, 2020 at 12:18 pm

    According to my news alert another rat deserting Trump’s ship.

    Kellyanne Conway

    ***********************************************************

    Kellyanne Conway to leave the White House at the end of the month, citing the need to focus on her family

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/kellyanne-conway-white-house/2020/08/23/6c26e18a-e5a7-11ea-bc79-834454439a44_story.html

    Just saw this as well.

    George Conway
    @gtconway3d
    So I’m withdrawing from
    @ProjectLincoln
    to devote more time to family matters. And I’ll be taking a Twitter hiatus.

    Needless to say, I continue to support the Lincoln Project and its mission. Passionately.
    12:16 PM · Aug 24, 2020·Twitter for iPhone

  18. “It’ll blow over in 48 hours max.”

    ***

    Probably. The news cycle moves so quickly these days, especially during a crisis like COVID. Since there appears to be major issues with both the establishment parties in Vic you wouldn’t think that either side would want to make much of a song and dance about it in the future either.

  19. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Monday, August 24, 2020 at 12:28 pm
    “One doesn’t just resign from the Liberal Party because membership isn’t that formal.”

    That’ll be news to most paid up members.

  20. Things just getting worse for Labor in the NT.

    Kevin Bonham
    @kevinbonham
    ·
    12m
    Replying to
    @kevinbonham
    A large booth has been realigned in Blain and the CLP did not get enough of Terry Mills’ preferences there so Labor are now projecting just ahead in that one too. #ntvotes
    Kevin Bonham
    @kevinbonham
    ·
    5m
    Labor could yet get 15 or even 16 seats here as Daly is down to 4 votes. Going very nicely for them so far today. #ntvotes

  21. “So bad he had to find a way to get back on to PB.”

    ***

    You make it sound like it’s some extremely difficult task, as if you think I must be one of those evil Russian hackers that you like to blame lots of things on. Sigh.

    Barney, I’m not the one who needs to do some reflecting. I stand by everything I said as Firefox. To be honest, I think I was rather restrained considering the subject matter. Wars should never be taken lightly or be swept under the carpet.

  22. Bucephalus @ #2773 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 12:34 pm

    You guys are great.

    Focus areas:

    Curry – that’s bad, apparently.
    Trump – that’s bad
    Victorian Liberal Party – bad, who knew?
    Greens v ALP, bad, obviously
    ALP Left v ALP Right, the worstest.

    Keep it up. #winning

    I do enjoy the laughs as clearly does Mundo.

    Birds of a feather…

    Though, what a condescending comment to make about people who have genuinely-held beliefs that are different to yours. I guess that’s why you don’t engender much respect around these parts. The same going for mundo.

  23. I guess William isn’t too rapt in posters who accuse US Senators of personally murdering millions of people on high rotation.

    Especially when it isn’t true.

    Seems fair enough from William.

  24. In case you’re wondering what’s happening with the Conways, their daughter, Claudia, is seeking emancipation, citing neglect and abuse from both of them.

    So, trying to quell that fire has probably become the priority for both of them.

  25. 5m
    Labor could yet get 15 or even 16 seats here as Daly is down to 4 votes. Going very nicely for them so far today. #ntvotes

    It is on – there is a disagreement between Bonham and Green wrt Katherine. Bonham has accused Green of being….. “incorrect”!

  26. Ahh cat, I’m not here to get respect.

    The Victorian Liberals are a shower of shit and have been for a long time – who knew? They need to go into the room of mirrors and have a long hard look at themselves for a long time and get their shit in one sock and stop letting the rest of Australian Conservatives down. Not much different to the ALP Federally.

    Frankly NSW always surprises me how well the LNP does there.

    Mundo fully understand this.

    I look at the CLP in the NT and they are pushing poo up hill with a pointy stick so I expect little of them. Deliver a Senator and I’m happy. They have a population of less than 200,000 and a debt of over $8 billion yet the numpties up there think the ALP are worth electing. It’s not surprising with so many reliant on either welfare and government supplied housing or work for the Local, Territory or Federal Government and that’s excluding the ADF which pours billions into the NT annually.

  27. “Firefox was a cool nic. Robbie is not as cool.”

    ***

    The name Robbie just popped into my head. Don’t ask me why, have no idea lol.

  28. “Firefox was a cool nic. Robbie is not as cool.”

    ***

    The name Robbie just popped into my head. Don’t ask me why, have no idea lol.

  29. Simon Katich @ #2789 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 1:11 pm

    5m
    Labor could yet get 15 or even 16 seats here as Daly is down to 4 votes. Going very nicely for them so far today. #ntvotes

    It is on – there is a disagreement between Bonham and Green wrt Katherine. Bonham has accused Green of being….. “incorrect”!

    Analysis at 20 paces! 😆

  30. Bucephalus says:
    Monday, August 24, 2020 at 12:39 pm

    Mexicanbeemer says:
    Monday, August 24, 2020 at 12:28 pm
    “One doesn’t just resign from the Liberal Party because membership isn’t that formal.”

    That’ll be news to most paid up members.
    ———————————
    Bucephalus
    To quit the Liberal Party a member simply doesn’t pay the membership fee. Just saying one quits doesn’t mean anything.

  31. Republicans ridiculed for not having a platform and just being a ‘cult’: ‘Hilariously pathetic and terrifying’

    The Republican Convention would normally have many meetings among party loyalists and state chairs working on updates to the GOP platform. But this year, there won’t be a Republican Party platform. The new platform is supporting Trump, the party said in a press release.

    It was something that made Twitter politicos note how emblematic it is of a Republican Party that has no real policies or plans than of Donald Trump.

    You can see the mockery in the tweets below:

    Nobody paying attention to what has been happening the last 3-plus years should be surprised that the Republican Party has no platform other than saluting and normalizing the whims of their divisive and mercurial leader.

    — Dan Rather (@DanRather) August 24, 2020

    Makes perfect sense. No agenda, no principles, no convictions, no ideology. Stand for nothing other than adoring the leader. https://t.co/NxP0ILzYoj

    — Ana Navarro-Cárdenas (@ananavarro) August 24, 2020

    Full cult. https://t.co/HLMaQmbhqB

    — Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) August 24, 2020

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/08/republicans-ridiculed-for-not-having-a-platform-and-just-being-a-cult-hilariously-pathetic-and-terrifying/

  32. Spray says:
    Monday, August 24, 2020 at 1:16 pm

    “Ha! The idea that the ADF “pours billions” into anywhere is one of your best Buce.”

    https://defence.nt.gov.au/defence-in-the-nt

    “Defence spent $2 billion in the Territory in 2018 to 2019, or around 7.6% of gross state product. This reflects an increase of 1.1% compared to the previous year and remains above with the 10-year average defence expenditure of $2.0 billion.

    The Australian Government’s 2016 Defence white paper outlined significant expenditure in the NT and a focus on investment in national defence infrastructure in northern Australia.

    This includes:

    the Australian Government is investing $8 billion between 2016 and 2025 for Defence infrastructure and facilities providing opportunities for small to medium NT businesses to secure long term work
    infrastructure works at RAAF Base Tindal to support a squadron of the F-35A Joint Strike Fighters, KC-30 refuelling aircraft and a number of forward deployed, MQ-4C unmanned aircraft
    twelve new offshore patrol vessels begin service from 2023, replacing the current Armidale class patrol boats, with six of these home ported in Darwin
    upgrades to Bradshaw Field Training Area, Robertson Barracks and Larrakeyah Barracks as well as consideration of a new Northern Advanced Joint Training Area with a potential rail link to RAAF Base Tindal
    purpose built facilities at Delamere Air Weapons Range to support personnel training on the EA-18G Growler aircraft”

    Come back after little lunch, champ.

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