Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: June-August

A still greater Coalition lead in Queensland underwrites its modest ascendancy in Newspoll over recent months, according to newly published breakdowns.

The Australian today brings us the latest set of breakdowns from three months’ accumulation of Newspoll results, and the second to be published since its ambit was extended beyond state, age and gender to education, income, language and religion. Highlights:

• Labor is credited with a lead of 51-49 in New South Wales, compared with 50-50 in the April-June quarter and 51.8-48.2 to the Coalition at the election, and its lead in Victoria is out to 56-44, compared with 55-45 and 53.1-46.9. Once again though, Queensland is Labor’s sticking point, with the Coalition lead recorded at 59-41, compared with 56-44 last quarter and 58.4-41.6 at the election. The Coalition leads 54-46 in Western Australia, compared with 55-45 last quarter and 55.6-44.4 at the election, and is now at level pegging in South Australia, compared with 53-47 to Labor last poll and 50.7-49.3 to Labor at the election.

• The Coalition leads 53-47 among men and trails 51-49 among women, compared with 52-48 to the Coalition among men and 52-48 to Labor among women last quarter.

• The age effect is a little more modest in the latest poll, with Labor leading 58-42 among the 18-34s and 53-47 among the 35-49s, respectively compared with 62-38 and 52-48 last quarter. The Coalition leads 54-46 among the 50-64s and 63-37 among the 65-plus, compared with 53-47 and 62-38 last quarter.

• Whereas the result was a perfect 50-50 among each of the three education cohorts last time, this time the Coalition leads 53-47 among those with no tertiary qualifications and 51-49 among those with TAFE and technical qualifications, while Labor leads 52-48 among those with university degrees.

• The last poll has 50-50 splits among the three lowest income cohorts, whereas the Coalition leads 57-43 among those with household incomes of $150,000 or higher. Last quarter, it was 50-50 among those on $50,000 or lower, 52-48 to the Labor among those on $50,000 to $100,000, 52-48 to the Coalition on those from $100,000 to $150,000, and 53-47 to the Coalition on $150,000 and higher.

• The Coalition leads 52-48 among those who speak only English at home, out from 51-49, and Labor leads 56-44 among non-English speakers, in from 57-43.

• The Coalition leads 60-40 among Christians, out from 58-42, and Labor leads 57-43 among those with no religion, in from 58-42.

The full results can be viewed here, I think without a paywall. The results are compiled from YouGov’s Newspoll surveys from June 3 to August 8, with a combined sample of 6392.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,230 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: June-August”

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  1. Victoria’s Covid new case numbers today (116) look promising. The deaths at 15 are still high but they reflect case numbers a few weeks ago. Hopefully they’ll start to reduce quickly soon.

    The seven day moving average new cases in Victoria is now 195, compared to 322 a week ago and 467 a week before that. Day to day numbers jump around – possibly an artefact of whether or not batches of new cases are reported before or after a daily deadline.

  2. He speaks of Melbourne as if it’s a different country, not in the Australia he has responsibility for. Empathy training unsuccessful.

  3. lizzie @ #2644 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 10:14 am

    I didn’t realise Morrison was still promoting his cooking skills. Can someone tell him we’re not interested in his curries, or whether “the girls” enjoyed it?

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    The Father of the Nation providing for his immediate family as well as the rest of us.
    Working on that next election win.
    If Albo ever fires up it’ll be like he beating up on Bambi. The punters won’t like it.
    Scrooter always a few steps ahead.

  4. lizzie @ #2645 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 8:06 am

    Barney

    That seemed to be the implication in the ABC Richard Willingam’s report.

    I’m going more from the quotes of Bastiaan in the actual 60 Minutes/Age report in regards to getting new members.

    He didn’t seem to care where they came from, just that he got them and he controlled them.

  5. Neil Oliver: We gave politicians an inch over Covid, so they’re taking a mile

    Just how deeply will governments penetrate our lives if we let them? I ask this question most sincerely. Germany has passed a law saying pet dogs must be walked twice a day. German politicians have decided citizens’ personal dog management is their business. At the other end of the scale of what might be considered tolerable governance, in North Korea Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un has told his captive audience their pet dogs are to be taken away and slaughtered for meat.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/neil-oliver-we-gave-politicians-an-inch-over-covid-so-theyre-taking-a-mile-jg9wm80rc

  6. Dear Leader rumoured to be in a coma, with Dear Sister grabbing power

    It is being reported in mainstream news outlets, albeit the less reputable ones (e.g. News.com.au).

  7. Danama Papers @ #2642 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 10:12 am

    mundo @ #2641 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 8:01 am

    A few comments from Scotty when Labor were caught branch stacking:
    “the Labor Party are absolutely at war”
    “Anthony Albanese has been totally burned by this scandal”
    “We’re fighting for jobs, they’re fighting each other”
    “Anthony Albanese is leading a party in absolute chaos and disarray”

    I hope Albo goes out today and uses these exact words with the name changed.
    Ridicule can be a powerful attack.

    An even better idea is for someone with video/audio editing skills to use footage of Morrison and just edit out every instance of the word Labor with Liberal.

    That raises the mockery quotient exponentially.

    ‘Someone’ ? How about Labor HQ?
    Abbott’s mob did it with that Kevin Lemon thing.

  9. So the media are running a story about Libs misbehaving which the majority of people have no interest in. Whilst doing this they not ramping up the story about aged care deaths which directly targets Morrison and his party, and is of interest to Joe Public

    Is this a conspiracy?

  10. The talk of the wet weather in Melbourne keeping people from coming out and being tested makes me realise I’ve no idea about testing protocols other than if you’re a contact or got symptoms you’re meant to front up. Are people called upon to just front up to keep the numbers up, and pursue the search for ‘silent’ infections? Or what?

  14. Barney

    In the photo there is a tiny hand steadying the pan, which suggests Morrison is having a little “help”. Just like him to pretend he does all the work.

  15. lizzie

    He speaks of Melbourne as if it’s a different country, not in the Australia he has responsibility for. Empathy training unsuccessful.

    Having been such a treacherous type as he back stabbed his way to the top he would have a finely honed survival instinct. Avoiding splashes of merde when it hits the fan seems to be a particular ‘talent’ of his over the years. So of course Melbourne is waay ‘over there’ .Nowhere near where he is.

  16. ItzaDream @ #2660 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 8:23 am

    The talk of the wet weather in Melbourne keeping people from coming out and being tested makes me realise I’ve no idea about testing protocols other than if you’re a contact or got symptoms you’re meant to front up. Are people called upon to just front up to keep the numbers up, and pursue the search for ‘silent’ infections? Or what?

    There was talk about how their contract tracing had become overwhelmed, so hopefully they are starting to get that element under control.

  17. It looks like Pauline Hanson and Malcolm Roberts have decided not to travel to Canberra for the sitting (Queensland MPs could also get an exemption, as the state has declared the ACT a Covid hotspot, meaning MPs would have to self isolate on their return) which might make the Senate a little easier this sitting.

    How’s this going to affect the Shine Collinsville coal plant scoping study disallowance?

  19. lizzie @ #2652 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 10:17 am

    He speaks of Melbourne as if it’s a different country, not in the Australia he has responsibility for. Empathy training unsuccessful.

    The obnoxious use of the word ‘still’ pissed me off – such boundless generosity of thought for sick and dying Victorians, and what a man – able to cook (but not photograph) food and think about other people other than himself at the same time. Lordy lord.

  20. Barney

    There was talk about how their contract tracing had become overwhelmed

    Is that a media rumour? That wasn’t what Sutton said yesterday. He said they could deal with an extra 10,000.

  21. Bluebottle:

    Monday, August 24, 2020 at 10:02 am

    [‘Again? That’s the second time this year…’]

    Yeah. It’s hard to really know the truth of what’s going on in the “Hermit State”. Dear Leader is though morbidly obese, his health probably affected. He may be playing games, waiting to see who might emerge to threaten his family’s hold on power. But it’s all conjecture at the moment.

  22. lizzie @ #2664 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 10:27 am

    Barney

    In the photo there is a tiny hand steadying the pan, which suggests Morrison is having a little “help”. Just like him to pretend he does all the work.

    Actually, looking at it again (something I now warn others against) it looks to me like he’s photoshopped his smirky goody two shoes dial into the shot, probably from the self-promotion marketing handbook back catalogue of handy still shots for the wanna be father of the year contestants.

  23. Barney in Tanjung Bunga:

    Monday, August 24, 2020 at 10:24 am

    [‘I didn’t realise Morrison had a sister!’]

    I’ll pay that one.

  25. The hotel inquiry continues today. Still havent seen any evidence of the bonking security guard which the media was breathlessly reporting on for months.
    We shall see what gets reported today I guess.

  26. Oh gawd.

    Josh Butler
    @JoshButler
    ·
    6m
    we got 30 minutes into the new parliament sitting, and about two minutes into his speech on social housing, before Tim Wilson gave a plug to his new book

  28. Can we be rid of these shysters….

    Noah Shachtman
    @NoahShachtman
    ·
    30m
    There’s a ton of news in this
    @ErinBanco
    joint, starting with the fact that Jared Kushner facilitated a shipment of Russian ventilators to NYC at the height of the pandemic there. The ventilators later caught fire, and were sent away.
    Revealed: Jared Kushner’s Private Channel With Putin’s Money Man
    More than a dozen Trump administration officials, current and former, described a clandestine relationship between Jared Kushner and the CEO of a Kremlin sovereign wealth fund.
    thedailybeast.com

  29. Mark Dreyfus
    @markdreyfusQCMP
    ·
    20m
    When people did the wrong thing in the Labor Party Anthony Albanese passed the leadership test. He moved immediately against those responsible. But now it’s the Liberal Party exposed, Mr Morrison says it’s nothing to do with him. He’s failed his own test.

  31. lizzie @ #2670 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 8:33 am

    Barney

    There was talk about how their contract tracing had become overwhelmed

    Is that a media rumour? That wasn’t what Sutton said yesterday. He said they could deal with an extra 10,000.

    Was Sutton talking about testing capacity or their ability to follow up on contacts of those tested positive?

  32. Albo should perfect the art of cooking the perfect chicken schnitzel and post pics. It would look more appealing than that curry mess. Share it with some tradies to target Morrisons audience.

  35. lizzie @ #2673 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 10:42 am

    Mark Dreyfus
    @markdreyfusQCMP
    ·
    20m
    When people did the wrong thing in the Labor Party Anthony Albanese passed the leadership test. He moved immediately against those responsible. But now it’s the Liberal Party exposed, Mr Morrison says it’s nothing to do with him. He’s failed his own test.

    Powerful stuff Mark.
    Irresistible.
    The meeja will lap it up.
    Good job.
    Have a lie down now.

  36. I had the full fry-up for elevenses this morning because I was very cold (tomatoes, mushrooms, egg, bread, but no meat) but I ate it before I could take a picture. Silly me, I could have been famous!!

  37. Vic:

    Far more needs to be made of the Rubio Report by the media. Unfortunately with everything Trump the scandals get their requisite 5 minutes before another scandal blows up to overshadow it.

  41. AZ, nothing wrong with getting your spices all mixed up for you. I don’t use jars, but packets. I am very conservative in my purchases at the Asian supermarkets as I can’t read what 99.999999% of the product are. I suggested to the owner that he does ‘guided tours’ of his shop for people like me. Charge say $50 a tour and he gives you a party pack of sample products after explaining what they used for.

  43. ”How’s this going to affect the Shine Collinsville coal plant scoping study disallowance?“

    Hopefully kill off the feasibility study, which will be disallowed.

    Actually I’m surprised that Pauline and Malcolm (the crazy one, not the ex-PM) won’t bravely venture forth into the Australian Covid Territory. After all, the Virus is a hoax. Or it’s just the common cold or political correctness gone mad. If Pauline is worried, her burqua could protect her.

  46. I use Chris Mansfield’s curry pastes. They’re very robust (as you might expect). Her Harissa is sensational.

    (No commercial interest)

  48. My son had the Mexican Chicken Schnitty at the Woy Woy Pub the other night. Chicken Schnitty, salsa, smashed avocado, corn chips and melted cheese. Yum!

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