What’s next

Not much to report, except that a star is born in Tasmania (maybe), and Northern Territory’s election is looming ever closer.

A new thread is wanted, but for all that’s happening in the world right now, there is not a lot of Australian electoral news for me to hang one on right now – there are no polls this week, and there is nothing to report on the preselection front. However:

• Following former newsreader Jo Palmer’s apparent success in gaining the Launceston region state upper house seat of Rosevears (corresponding with the western end of Bass) for the Liberals at Saturday’s elections, The Mercury reports “political watchers in Canberra are now tracking Ms Palmer’s campaign with interest, with some considering how they could lure their likely new star MP to Canberra”. Both of the elections on Saturday appear to have resulted in seats passing from independents to the major parties, with Palmer taking a vacant seat and Labor’s Bastian Seidel unseating Robert Armstrong in Huon at the southern edge of Hobart (part of the federal and state lower house division of Franklin). This would leave the chamber with five Labor members, three Liberals and seven independents – the first time in its history that the chamber has not had an independent majority.

• I have had too little to say about the Northern Territory election, which will be held in three Saturdays’ time. This will come to an end when I publish my comprehensive guide to the election, which I will hopefully do later today.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,664 comments on “What’s next”

Comments Page 44 of 54
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  1. Such an inglorious ending for such an obsessive identity with multiple personalities.
    Finally a humorous aspect of an ingratiating sycophantic character.
    He maintained the charade for so long.
    It makes one laugh.

  2. Oakeshott Country @ #2141 Saturday, August 8th, 2020 – 8:50 pm

    I’m posting this because Mavis seems to be making a concerted effort with LvT to have Michael nath person readmitted to the blog. Why is that, Mavis? Because his constant insults directed towards commenters like me ‘amuse’ you? That’s pathetic. That’s the way it seems though because that guy had a one track mind. Destroy Labor, via being a ‘Green’ or a ‘Liberal’. Sorry but you need to take the time to reflect on what this blog is all about if that’s the case.

    So can we confirm that this blog is all about support for the ALP and, in particular, the NSW Right

    No, it’s about standards. A concept you appear unable to recognise.

    So, who’s your sock puppet, Oakeshott Country? Wayne?

  6. Oakeshott Country:

    Saturday, August 8, 2020 at 8:51 pm

    [‘I also always appreciate the depth of GG’s analysis.’]

    You appear not to be easily impressed.

  8. I thought you did “post here in perpetuity”
    I certainly know more about your personal life than I know about my siblings

  10. As quarantine is a commonwealth responsibility, perhaps Morrison could finally do his job. And in any event, why would they want Victoria to take returned travellers in light of our quarantine debacle and now being in hard lockdown.
    ………………..
    RonniSalt
    @RonniSalt
    So a well placed source at Premier & Cabinet Vic is saying last week the federal govt approached Victoria 3 times over the course of the week to return to taking in overseas hotel quarantine.

    Apparently the pressure on Sydney is too much

    Can media follow this up at a presser?

  14. Oakeshott Country @ #2158 Saturday, August 8th, 2020 – 8:58 pm

    I thought you did “post here in perpetuity”
    I certainly know more about your personal life than I know about my siblings

    No need to let us know about your estranged relationship with your siblings, Oakeshott Country.

    Anyway, what is it about my personal life that you find so distateful? Do tell? And not about Bushfire Bill’s personal life, or davidwh’s tales of his travels? Or lizzie’s stories about her dogs? Why is it MY personal life details that you seem obsessed with in a negative way? Don’t like the stories of the Poors?

  16. Rex Douglas @ #2163 Saturday, August 8th, 2020 – 9:03 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2161 Saturday, August 8th, 2020 – 8:59 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #2153 Saturday, August 8th, 2020 – 8:56 pm

    Just ask Emma Husar what she thinks of the dark elements in NSW Labor.

    So says, Rex ‘She should be managed out of the Labor Party’ Douglas.

    Surely you’re good at things other than misrepresentations and mistruths …?

    Fake news, Rex Douglas, and you know it. As do others.

  19. Confessions:

    I the ‘michael’ who is commenting the nath/michael sockpuppet or is it a different commenter?

    There is “michael” and then there is “Michael”, and there may be others.

    Personally I couldn’t give a shit about people posting under others’ names (which of course the spectacularly childish could view as an invitation to post under my name).

    If there is a need then there is a partial technical solution. Email addresses are regarded as sufficiently identifying. They can’t be attached to posts, but one can hash them (e.g. MD5) and attach the hash. That way impersonations (which are more problematic than “sock puppetry”) can be detected as they will appear with the wrong hash. If one then wants to deal with sock-puppetry too, one can publish a page with the hash codes and suspected sock-puppets (detected by IP etc).

    On the other hand we could all grow up – I’ll go first!

  20. This is a blog of opinion and at the end of the day we just have to respect each other even though there is robust debate etc at times (which has to be expected) we should not take too many comments to heart.

  21. poroti

    It comes after New Zealand accent was rated the sexiest in the world in an extensive poll conducted by Big Travel in April last year.

    In a survey, commissioned by dating site harmony, ….
    ———-
    Is this a valid survey?

  22. C@tmomma @ #2166 Saturday, August 8th, 2020 – 9:04 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #2163 Saturday, August 8th, 2020 – 9:03 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2161 Saturday, August 8th, 2020 – 8:59 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #2153 Saturday, August 8th, 2020 – 8:56 pm

    Just ask Emma Husar what she thinks of the dark elements in NSW Labor.

    So says, Rex ‘She should be managed out of the Labor Party’ Douglas.

    Surely you’re good at things other than misrepresentations and mistruths …?

    Fake news, Rex Douglas, and you know it. As do others.

    If you say so c@tmomma

  26. Rex Douglas @ #2172 Saturday, August 8th, 2020 – 9:07 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2166 Saturday, August 8th, 2020 – 9:04 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #2163 Saturday, August 8th, 2020 – 9:03 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2161 Saturday, August 8th, 2020 – 8:59 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #2153 Saturday, August 8th, 2020 – 8:56 pm

    Just ask Emma Husar what she thinks of the dark elements in NSW Labor.

    So says, Rex ‘She should be managed out of the Labor Party’ Douglas.

    Surely you’re good at things other than misrepresentations and mistruths …?

    Fake news, Rex Douglas, and you know it. As do others.

    If you say so c@tmomma

    I sure do.

  27. An observation I would like to make is that too often here people respond to the poster rather than the subject of the post. Too many entrenched views of other members rather than using PB for its intended purpose, discussing politics, polling and general subjects.

  28. Davidwh @ #2177 Saturday, August 8th, 2020 – 9:10 pm

    An observation I would like to make is that too often here people respond to the poster rather than the subject of the post. Too many entrenched views of other members rather than using PB for its intended purpose, discussing politics, polling and general subjects.

    Attack the argument and not the poster is so 2018.

  29. Davidwh @ #2177 Saturday, August 8th, 2020 – 9:10 pm

    An observation I would like to make is that too often here people respond to the poster rather than the subject of the post. Too many entrenched views of other members rather than using PB for its intended purpose, discussing politics, polling and general subjects.

    Indeed. I comment on NSW Labor and I get personally attacked…

  31. Victoria.
    Quarantine and tracing in Victoria is being handled much better now that the ADF is involved. So rumour could be true.

  32. Davidwh:

    Saturday, August 8, 2020 at 9:10 pm

    [‘An observation I would like to make is that too often here people respond to the poster rather than the subject of the post. Too many entrenched views of other members rather than using PB for its intended purpose, discussing politics, polling and general subjects.’]

    Well, it is Saturday night, dear.

  33. An observation I would like to make is that too often here people respond to the poster rather than the subject of the post. Too many entrenched views of other members rather than using PB for its intended purpose, discussing politics, polling and general subjects.

    …

    Attack the argument and not the poster is so 2018.

    There is of course the problem that the argument may be difficult to find; whereas the poster is readily accessible…

  35. E. G. Theodore @ #2141 Saturday, August 8th, 2020 – 5:56 pm

    Mundo:

    Didn’t see that coming!!

    No analysis – just a stupid reaction a la Pavlov’s Dog

    One possibility is they’re setting up Mr. Dutton – he’ll pile on sopon enough -how could he resist? – and they’ll start leaking things – then he’s done (a cunning plan)

    Another is that that it’s been run by the usual collection of five year olds who have somehow gotten off the leash. I said in March that Mr Morrison needs to fire those dickheads – he didn’t but he did somehow neuter them for several months, perhaps they’re back?

    And of course there is the News Limited angle. Prof Blakely’s piece indicates he took the story on the front page of The Australian seriously – assumed it was basically valid, as most would have 25 years ago when the Australian was a real newspaper. Likewise the reaction of the Vic DCMO (Alan Tang?). Both of them now know it was made up bullshit, as do a whole lot of other people who previously assumed (despite a lot of recent evidence) that The Australian retained credibility. That’s gone now, and News is desparately running a snow job throwing shit all over the place as a distraction as part of a last ditch attempt to retain some vestige of its former credibility.

    EGT.
    It’s Allan Cheng. He’s a very competent and respected senior ID physician and epidemiologist (which is not the same thing) who is President of the Australasian Society for Infectious Diseases, and has been deeply involved with both National & Victorian responses to COVID-19 since January. He has also been directly involved in treating people (including colleagues) with this unique disease. He was drafted to the DCMO position, because of his almost unique expertise, but those of us who know and value him know how uncomfortable he is dealing with the rabid hyenas of Spiv world, who see him as prey.

    The idiot partisan reaction of the drones to Allen (and Kerry Chant & Dan Andrews…) is one of the reasons why I feel white hot personal anger at the Spiv scum – for which PB is, at least, a target for venting. This is direct and personal.

  36. Taylormade:

    Quarantine and tracing in Victoria is being handled much better now that the ADF is involved. So rumour could be true.

    And … post hoc ergo propter hoc … again! Is this some sort of minor league test?

  38. So I’m going to raise the tone. It also serves the purpose of proving, yet again, though I shouldn’t have to, although it is a convenient epithet for those who want to hurl insults your way here, that I am not of the Labor Right.

    So, here is the story of a man who I dearly wanted to become an Australian citizen, if only The Greens and the Liberals hadn’t played cynical politics with his life and Labor were allowed to have their onshore detention centres as a pathway to asylum, and also the Malaysia Solution.

    So, here is the story of Behrouz Boochani:

    The phones quickly became the only tool successful at breaking through the shroud of secrecy that Australia tried to throw over the migrants’ detention. Locked up in the disused rooms of the old naval base, the asylum seekers were called by serial numbers instead of names. Communications were tightly restricted. Under Australian law, workers who spoke publicly about what they saw or heard at the detention sites faced up to two years in prison. But official documents and accounts from survivors and whistle blowers gradually leaked out, along with accusations of sexual and physical abuse. Asylum seekers sought solace in self-harm as their mental and physical health crumbled under the strain of prolonged and uncertain detention.

    In his quest for refuge, Boochani had landed in a dystopian enclosure administered by a crazy collection of bureaucrats and guards and contractors. A solitary soul, he was tormented in the camp by the constant presence of so many other people. He yearned for a paper and pen. The only way to fight off a creeping madness, he concluded, was to work.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/04/magazine/behrouz-boochani-australia.html

  43. What’s really annoyed me about some of the pile on to Andrews, various members of the Victorian DHS and those in charge of the public health response here and elsewhere is how just plain dumb some of the commentary is. Sutton doesn’t appear for a day and He mUSt HaVE ReSigNEd, but there’s a different Chief Medical or Deputy Chief Medical Officer fronting the media at a federal level every day and that’s totally normal. They print easily disprovable crap on their front page and then don’t apologise for it or correct it.

    Some of the debate is so shallow and cut down into binaries. Who actually thinks this kind of debate is helpful?

    We’ve had a few media pile-ons to politicians over the past decade and none of them have resulted in us being better informed or better governed.

    Maybe the gotcha journalism isn’t getting the transparency they claim they’re pushing for?

    What annoys me about the media and the spivs is not that they’re anti-Labor, from News Corp, rude at press conferences, etc. What annoys me is that once they smell blood they think they can publish anything regardless whether it’s true, fits the evidence or is even reasonable.

  44. OC

    I don’t know specifics about Van Dieman, but I’m not surprised after the SmearStralian pile on over the Captain Cook comments that she felt she would be targeted by the hyena pack of Melbourne media.

  45. Bugler

    The pile on Andrews didnt start a few weeks ago.
    It has been in train from April. This is a concerted campaign.
    If you look at the Murdoch papers in particular, it has been a witch hunt, and a multi week attack campaign.
    They have an agenda, make no mistake

  46. C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, August 8, 2020 at 9:22 pm
    _____________________
    C@t you do know Behrouz condemned KK as a hypocrite? Not a good choice of example

  47. Victoria @ #2195 Saturday, August 8th, 2020 – 9:46 pm

    Bugler

    The pile on Andrews didnt start a few weeks ago.
    It has been in train from April. This is a concerted campaign.
    If you look at the Murdoch papers in particular, it has been a witch hunt, and a multi week attack campaigns.
    They have an agenda, make no mistake

    The Belts and Roads stuff with China is the guts of it.

  48. Nath can be funny and also is not part of the ALP/Dan Andrews perfection caucus. Hence, a loss if he cannot return. However, some form of ritual humiliation may be in order, such as a post per day for four weeks noting something good Bill Shorten has done.

  49. And with Cormann the guest, and in the exit lounge, perhaps he will stray off talking points and tell us what he really thinks about Morrison.

  50. GG

    At its core it is to damage him and the govt. Remember the fibs were decimated at the state election in 2018.
    The fibs never let a good crisis go to waste.
    Andrews knows what he is dealing with.

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