Miscellany: issues polling, drug law reform, Eden-Monaro wash-up, NZ poll

Concern about the state of the economy pushes climate change down the issue agenda batting order; evidence of a trend in favour of legalisation of cannabis; and New Zealand Labour still on track for a landslide in September.

Beneath this post is the latest offering from Adrian Beaumont on the polling picture in the United States ahead of the November presidential election. Closer to home, a few items of poll-related news:

• Pollster JWS Research has published results of its occasional True Issues survey, in which respondents are prompted to identify the five most important issues from a list of 20. The key changes since the last survey in February are a 17% increase for the economy and finances to 52% and an 11% drop in environment and climate change to 31%. The result for health issues has in fact changed little over recent surveys, although it has gained the top spot in the latest survey with a three point increase to 56%, overtaking cost of living which is down six to 53%. Interestingly, defence, security and terrorism is up six to 26%, which I take to reflect growing nervousness about China. Various other questions on COVID-19 are also featured, including findings that satisfaction with federal and state government performance is at record highs, with both scoring 19% for very good and 39% for good. The report notes that strongest results for state governments were recorded in Western Australia (83% combined very good and good) and the weakest were in Victoria (57%), although this is going off small sub-samples. The poll was conducted July 1 to 5 from a sample of 1000, just as the breakout in Victoria was beginning to gather pace.

• The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare has published the National Drug Strategy Household Survey 2019, in which 22,274 respondents were surveyed by Roy Morgan between April and September 2019 about their use of and attitudes towards illegal drugs. On the latter count, it found a plurality in favour of legalising cannabis for the first time, with 41% supportive and 37% opposed, with support having risen from 21% since 2007. It also found 57% support for allowing pill testing with 27% opposed.

• Kevin Bonham offers an interesting look at the unweighted data on voting intention that Essential Research effectively provides in its otherwise voting intention-less poll results, by way of identifying the size of the subsamples in its survey question breakdowns (for example, in the latest polls you can see from the “base” rows in the tables breaking down responses by voting intention that the sample included 299 Labor voters, 420 for the Coalition and 108 for the Greens). Notwithstanding the lack of weighting, the results paint an intuitively plausible picture of collapsing government support at the time of the bushfires, a reset when COVID-19 first reared its head, and an ongoing surge in Coalition support on the back of its support packages and the largely successful efforts to suppress the virus. These movements are considerably more variable than anything recorded by Newspoll, which has maintained the unnatural stability that was its hallmark before the 2019 election, despite its methodological overhaul.

Some wash-up from the Eden-Monaro by-election:

• John Black, former Labor Senator and now executive director of Australian Development Strategies, offered an ecological analysis of voting patterns in the Eden-Monaro by-election in The Australian on Monday. This pointed to a strong age-related effect in which older areas swung Labor and younger areas swung Liberal. Labor-swinging areas were also low-income with large accommodation and food industry workforces, while Liberal-swinging areas were white-collar and with high levels of employment in public administration. None of this would surprise students of the electorate and the result, given the Liberal swing in Queanbeyan and the Labor swing along the coast.

• Counting in the by-election is nearly complete, with today being the last day that postal votes received will be entered in the count. The latest results are continuing to be updated as they come through on my live results page. With probably a couple of dozen postals to be entered in the count, Labor holds a lead of 764. Of remaining interest will be the distribution of preferences, presumably to be conducted early next week, which will offer some insight into exactly how many Nationals and Shooters preferences flowed to Labor – contentious subjects both on the conservative side of politics.

Meanwhile across the pond:

• Roy Morgan published a New Zealand voting intention poll this week that was shortly overtaken by events, with the conservative opposition National Party experiencing its second leadership change in two months earlier in the week. The poll had Labor down two points from the previous poll in May to 54.5%, National up half a point to 27%, the Greens up two to 9%, Act New Zealand up 1.5% to a new peak of 5%, and New Zealand First apparently headed towards extinction with a one point drop to 1.5%. The poll was conducted by phone from a sample of 879, but all we are told of the field work period is that it was conducted during June.

• Concurrent with the New Zealand election on September 19 will be a non-binding referendum on cannabis legalisation. Poll results on this question are all over the shop: one poll last month, by Colmar Brunton, had 40% for and 49% against, while another, by Horizon Research, had 56% for and 43% against.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,562 comments on “Miscellany: issues polling, drug law reform, Eden-Monaro wash-up, NZ poll”

Comments Page 21 of 32
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  2. C@t

    And it should be noted that restrictions were only just being lifted in Victoria when transmissions started showing up

  4. Victoria @ #1005 Saturday, July 18th, 2020 – 11:08 pm

    C@t

    And it should be noted that restrictions were only just being lifted in Victoria when transmissions started showing up

    Honestly, and people will probably say, well she would say that wouldn’t she, but Scott Morrison at the football in NSW last weekend probably flipped a lot of people who were doing the right thing to doing, not the right thing by this weekend.

  5. “Victoriasays:
    Saturday, July 18, 2020 at 11:06 pm
    C@t

    Hence why the CMO is saying rate is 1 to 4 for NSW at present”

    Er, 1.4. Unless I’ve missed that statement.

    “Kelly said that the effective reproductive rate of the virus, known as the R number, was “virtually at one in Victoria”, due to its harsh lockdown, but was at 1.4 in south-western Sydney.”

    https://xkcd.com/386/

  6. C@t

    Morrison is a charlatan.

    NSW have done an excellent amount of testing. But if people are not practising social distancing and congregating in enclosed spaces, it wont take much for the virus to take off.

  7. Some sensible thoughts before I call it a night

    Steve Lambert
    @sblambo
    As a communicable diseases epidemiologist, it is completely exhausting to see media reporting like “virus bungle” “Victoria at the back of the pack”. In the next 2 years, it is likely every state and territory will be in a similar position. There wasn’t a bungle. They were unlucky
    7:15 PM · Jul 18, 2020·Twitter Web App
    706
    Retweets and comments
    2K
    Likes
    Steve Lambert
    @sblambo
    ·
    4h
    Replying to
    @sblambo
    So let’s have some humanity and give jurisdictions that aren’t fairing that well some space to sort out their cases. There are a large number of exhausted and hard working public health staff doing their best

  8. Victoria @ #1009 Saturday, July 18th, 2020 – 11:17 pm

    C@t

    Morrison is a charlatan.

    NSW have done an excellent amount of testing. But if people are not practising social distancing and congregating in enclosed spaces, it wont take much for the virus to take off.

    Yep, always trying to play both ends against the middle, which is where he should be safely taking the nation. Instead he plays to the Tradies by going to the footy and then he puts his expensive suit on and tries to play the statesman. It’s just jarring.

  11. Yes, I listened to a doctor who is on Joe Biden’s Public Health taskforce tonight and he said that exhausted and sick medical personnel is a big problem. You can have all the equipment and PPE in the world but if you haven’t got anyone who knows how to work the machines and do the jobs in the medical facilities it’s all for nought.

  14. I know Morrison claims he’s a rabid Sharks fan, but something about his personality doesn’t quite fit that picture.

    Same goes for his religious affiliation, now that I think of it.

    He is SO deceptive and slippery, so prone to abandoning his principles at the drop of a hat, that I can’t imagine him being genuine about anything at all. Not footy. Not religion. Not friendships.

  20. BB
    PvO wrote a tweet that Morrison only became a sharkie when he became the MP for Cook and before that had been a Roosters fan. I think its possible he does like his footy but he is a difficult person to pigeon hole.

  23. “steve davissays:
    Sunday, July 19, 2020 at 12:00 am
    Blobbit
    Just as well it didnt happen in Melbourne Port.”
    Pretty sure that would have been an accident

  24. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Shane Wright says that Josh Frydenberg’s budget update will reveal a further downgrade to wages growth with fears workers may not see a decent pay rise for years.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/wage-growth-to-crash-to-record-lows-in-hit-to-wallets-and-federal-budget-20200717-p55czh.html
    Angus Thompson joins the list of those that think that the HomeBuilder program is misdirected.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/thousands-in-nsw-register-for-homebuilder-but-main-game-lies-elsewhere-20200718-p55d85.html
    Caitlin Fitzsimmons tells us about the difficulty NSW Covid-19 tracers are having tracking down some spreaders.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/virus-detectives-concerned-by-mystery-cases-as-nsw-doubles-down-on-tracers-20200718-p55d9w.html
    The Crossroads Hotel hardly did the right thing.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/how-a-normal-night-at-the-pub-turned-into-a-covid-19-cluster-20200717-p55d07.html
    The New Daily says that the risk of virus transmission is higher in NSW than Melbourne, with warnings that Sydney residents have become “complacent” and are not taking social distancing as seriously.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/coronavirus/2020/07/19/coronavirus-nsw-reproduction-rate/
    The editorial in the SMH goes in to bat for the suppression strategy.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/elimination-of-covid-19-not-the-strategy-our-nation-needs-20200718-p55dab.html
    The Sikh philosophy of selfless service has seen volunteers mobilise in Melbourne to deliver free meals to needy groups affected by COVID-19. Jewel Topsfield spends some time with them.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/meet-the-sikhs-who-keep-coming-to-the-rescue-for-vulnerable-victorians-20200718-p55d9a.html
    Dana McCauley writes that women experiencing domestic violence during the COVID-19 crisis are still struggling to access help, advocates say, amid revelations almost half of the federal government’s promised $150 million in funding will not be distributed for more than a year.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/slow-drip-of-domestic-violence-funding-not-good-enough-20200716-p55csz.html
    Paul Karp gives us a taste of the morsels the senate inquiry on SportsRorts will get to digest this week.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/18/sports-rorts-queensland-club-with-no-adult-womens-team-given-grant-for-female-change-room
    SA’s chief public health officer Nicol Spurrier has won a legion of fans with her calmness and self-deprecating humour to highlight serious issues such as virus restrictions or COVID-19 testing.
    https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/coronavirus/the-spurrier-effect-sas-top-doctor-wins-legions-of-fans-with-calm-virus-response/news-story/90bab260aa164760e9e3706ceae7354d
    Communications Minister Paul Fletcher claimed ABC funding has been rising yearly, a statement proven to be inaccurate, writes Ranald MacDonald.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/abc-fact-check-proves-government-lied-about-funding,14117
    Anthony Galloway describes how Australia’s gun registration is outdated, broken and being exploited by criminals.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/gaps-in-the-system-move-to-overhaul-paper-based-gun-licensing-system-20200716-p55csh.html
    A rising China now faces a world that is determined to constrain it. Where will it end asks Eryk Bagshaw.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/multiple-battlefronts-as-china-takes-on-the-world-20200715-p55c6l.html
    Peter FitzSimons has his say on the palace papers. Also a good joke at the end.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/queen-s-man-held-kerr-s-hand-down-the-path-to-pulling-the-trigger-on-whitlam-20200717-p55d4p.html
    Sally Whyte reviews Julia Gillard’s book on women and leadership.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6836880/heart-of-glass-how-julia-gillard-kept-smashing-on-through/?cs=14259
    Australia is in need of stronger bipartisan policy against human rights abusers, a move condoned by Greens leader Christine Milne, writes Peter Wicks.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/human-rights-are-not-selective-rights,14116
    The US has reported its highest one-day total for coronavirus cases for the pandemic so far, with a new poll released on Friday indicating that Donald Trump is continuing to lose support as a result of the alarming trend.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/17/coronavirus-us-highest-one-day-total-trump-poll

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe


    Matt Golding







    Matt Davidson

    Reg Lynch

    Glen Le Lievre

    From the US



  25. Insiders ABC@InsidersABC
    ·
    19m
    Coming up on #Insiders with @David_Speers:

    • ACTU president @MicheleONeilAU.
    • @mpbowers talks pics with the triple j’s @shalailah.
    • On the couch are @murpharoo, @CroweDM and @annikasmethurst.

    See you at 9am.

  26. Salons Lucian Truscott :

    No rallies, no Death Star: Trump’s campaign is disintegrating before our eyes

    Brad Parscale? Who’s he? Nothing Trump did in 2016 is working — his campaign is being managed by the coronavirus

    There are only 15 weeks left before Election Day on Nov. 3, and a lot can happen in American politics in 15 weeks. We learned that in spades in 2016, didn’t we? But Trump isn’t just running against Joe Biden. He’s running against a virus that doesn’t belong to a political party, doesn’t watch Fox News, and doesn’t care how many times the president of the United States tries to wish it away. The virus has a big vote this year, and so far, it’s voting against Trump. It’s one of the tragedies of our political system that so many people have to die for one incompetent, corrupt man to lose the presidential election.

    https://www.salon.com/2020/07/18/no-rallies-no-death-star-trumps-campaign-is-disintegrating-before-our-eyes/

  27. Confessions @ #1025 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 7:06 am

    Insiders ABC@InsidersABC
    ·
    19m
    Coming up on #Insiders with @David_Speers:

    • ACTU president @MicheleONeilAU.
    • @mpbowers talks pics with the triple j’s @shalailah.
    • On the couch are @murpharoo, @CroweDM and @annikasmethurst.

    See you at 9am.

    I bet ‘Speersy’ doesn’t ask Annika about her overzealous reporting of the E-M by-election result. 😐

  28. Confessions @ #1025 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 5:06 am

    Insiders ABC@InsidersABC
    ·
    19m
    Coming up on #Insiders with @David_Speers:

    • ACTU president @MicheleONeilAU.
    • @mpbowers talks pics with the triple j’s @shalailah.
    • On the couch are @murpharoo, @CroweDM and @annikasmethurst.

    See you at 9am.

    Crowe is way out of his intellectual and moral depth in that group, but still no compelling reason to switch the bad show on.

  29. How fucking typical of the Morrison Government, dominated by males and feckless females as it is!:

    ‘Dana McCauley writes that women experiencing domestic violence during the COVID-19 crisis are still struggling to access help, advocates say, amid revelations almost half of the federal government’s promised $150 million in funding will not be distributed for more than a year.’
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/slow-drip-of-domestic-violence-funding-not-good-enough-20200716-p55csz.html

  31. C@t:

    No Greens MP has been on Insiders since Bandt became leader. I can’t remember who the last Greens MP was on the show, but I don’t think it was this year.

    I wonder if it’s a deliberate strategy by the Greens, or whether Insiders has decided they are irrelevant and not worth bothering with.

  32. Steve Davies
    @OZloop
    · 30m
    @ScottMorrisonMP There is no excuse for parliament not sitting. Arrangements could have been made months ago. @APS_Commission That’s the job of of APS agencies

  33. Confessions @ #1032 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 7:31 am

    C@t:

    No Greens MP has been on Insiders since Bandt became leader. I can’t remember who the last Greens MP was on the show, but I don’t think it was this year.

    I wonder if it’s a deliberate strategy by the Greens, or whether Insiders has decided they are irrelevant and not worth bothering with.

    The latter I’d say. Though they’ll get a bone thrown to them at election time in 2022 probably. 🙂

  34. Trump and Morrison are both very good at siphoning taxpayer and donor money off for themselves and their party too. Though Trump wins that game hands down:

    There has long been an element of grift to political campaigns.

    The guys who make the ads and the media buyers get rich by paying themselves a percentage of the amount that is spent on advertising. The same is true for those who put together the direct-mail operation. As one political consultant explained it to me: “It’s sort of like getting to grade your own homework.”

    Hired fundraisers can make six-figure commissions by exaggerating their worth. Others get paid similar amounts for providing “strategic advice.”

    But there has never been anything quite like the racket that President Trump appears to have going.

    In two days alone during March, the president’s reelection effort forked over roughly $380,000 of its contributors’ money to his hotels for “facility rental/catering services.”

    The Trump Organization told my colleague David Fahrenthold that this paid for a “donor retreat” to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Fla. A source familiar with the arrangement explained to Fahrenthold that the figure had to be broken into 43 separate payments, because Mar-a-Lago can’t handle credit card transactions of more than $10,000.

    The campaign has also been paying more than $37,000 a month in rent to Trump Tower in New York, which is odd, considering that the campaign’s headquarters is in an office building in Rosslyn.

    The Center for Responsive Politics has been keeping track of all of this on its OpenSecrets website. During this election cycle, the center reports, the president’s campaign and its related committees have steered $2.6 million of their donors’ money to Trump’s family-owned properties and businesses. The Republican Party has spent nearly $1 million as well, and GOP candidates, elected officials and their political action committees have spent another $391,000.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/07/17/trump-campaign-is-grift-that-keeps-grifting/?

    And that doesn’t even include the Merch that the rubes get sold!

  35. C@tmomma @ #1032 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 5:27 am

    How fucking typical of the Morrison Government, dominated by males and feckless females as it is!:

    ‘Dana McCauley writes that women experiencing domestic violence during the COVID-19 crisis are still struggling to access help, advocates say, amid revelations almost half of the federal government’s promised $150 million in funding will not be distributed for more than a year.’
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/slow-drip-of-domestic-violence-funding-not-good-enough-20200716-p55csz.html

    I doubt it’s that.

    This is just a typical announcement by this Government.

    Often sounds nice and promising at the outset, but when you dig into the detail, it falls well short of any initial expectations.

  36. In two days alone during March, the president’s reelection effort forked over roughly $380,000 of its contributors’ money to his hotels for “facility rental/catering services.”

    Trump’s been doing this since coming to office. Remember all those reports of the Secret Service and other agencies using Trump hotels when they travel?

    What bloody Emoluments Clause?!

  37. BiTB,
    EVERY funding announcement is crafted so that Morrison gets maximum positive exposure for it. And if his appeal is fading, he just reannounces it!

  38. Good morning and thanks to BK for the Dawn Patrol.

    Astounding news courtesy of the “BK Files”.

    Communications Minister Paul Fletcher claimed ABC funding has been rising yearly, a statement proven to be inaccurate, writes Ranald MacDonald.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/abc-fact-check-proves-government-lied-about-funding,14117

    Jest a minute fellas – my staff are on strike and I have to make my own coffee. In the interim get a load of this lot 👇👇👇👇👇

    Somebody in Gummint lied ❗ Why the nerve of some people. A properly elected and rigorously held to account by the MSM Gummint “LIED”. Get outa here ❗

    Adopting voice and tone of Victor Meldrew —

    “I don’t believe it”.

    Dammit Muriel, next thing one or more a them lefties will be saying that Family Violence Services are losing funding and support. More from the “BK Files”. 👇👇👇

    Dana McCauley writes that women experiencing domestic violence during the COVID-19 crisis are still struggling to access help, advocates say, amid revelations almost half of the federal government’s promised $150 million in funding will not be distributed for more than a year.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/slow-drip-of-domestic-violence-funding-not-good-enough-20200716-p55csz.html

    Cripes ladeez and gennermun – looks as though Captain Tom knighted by Queen Elizabeth II is needed here in the Orstrayan colony to walk with his famous —

    Prolly not available via the NDS as funds required for other important purposes.

    Captain Tom – I salute you. Gummint – maybe not.

    Exhausted. ☕

  42. KayJay (Block)
    Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 5:42 am
    Comment #1038

    …

    What’s happened to the Australian?

    That’s almost demonstrating balance.

  43. BiTB,
    It’s The Weekend Australian. The Culture Warriors have the weekend off to recharge their batteries for the coming week.

  44. David Speers has written an empty opinion piece that says nothing except that Andrews must take the blame. So now we know where Insiders will be going.

  46. Speers better be as hot on the tail of Gladys Berejiklian then if the breakout in NSW gets out of control. Looking at yesterday’s efforts by the people of Sydney I’m expecting it to.

  47. @BB

    “ I know Morrison claims he’s a rabid Sharks fan, but something about his personality doesn’t quite fit that picture.”

    The man has made an astonishing career trading on the gullibility of folk making judgements on surface appearances. Same goes for Trump as well.

    12 years ago he only knew of Rugby League as a silly game the poors played and to deride with the other Eastern Suburbs masters of the universe at Saturday afternoon rugby.

    Now he’s a Sharkies and NRL tragic. A farce.

    At least John Howard was an authentic Dragons fan. Growing up in Earlwood, not Bronte, probably had something to do with that.

  48. Jim Chalmers MP
    @JEChalmers
    ·
    6m
    Stagnant wages growth isn’t just a consequence of this recession, it was a defining feature of the economy under the Liberals pre-virus. Remember the Morrison Government said it was a “deliberate design feature” of their approach to the economy #auspol

  49. Again – replying to BB, re ScoMo:

    “ He is SO deceptive and slippery, so prone to abandoning his principles at the drop of a hat, that I can’t imagine him being genuine about anything at all. Not footy. Not religion. Not friendships.”

    I get that sense about his family. A convenient beard for him to throw back at any element of the media that may look like going off piste from the PMO drip and start asking inconvenient questions about where Scotty is, or what he’s being doing.

    Not that I’m suggesting his gay – not that there is anything wrong with that. No. I’m suggesting that he might in fact be an intergalactic space cockroach in a Scotty suit.

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