Miscellany: issues polling, drug law reform, Eden-Monaro wash-up, NZ poll

Concern about the state of the economy pushes climate change down the issue agenda batting order; evidence of a trend in favour of legalisation of cannabis; and New Zealand Labour still on track for a landslide in September.

Beneath this post is the latest offering from Adrian Beaumont on the polling picture in the United States ahead of the November presidential election. Closer to home, a few items of poll-related news:

• Pollster JWS Research has published results of its occasional True Issues survey, in which respondents are prompted to identify the five most important issues from a list of 20. The key changes since the last survey in February are a 17% increase for the economy and finances to 52% and an 11% drop in environment and climate change to 31%. The result for health issues has in fact changed little over recent surveys, although it has gained the top spot in the latest survey with a three point increase to 56%, overtaking cost of living which is down six to 53%. Interestingly, defence, security and terrorism is up six to 26%, which I take to reflect growing nervousness about China. Various other questions on COVID-19 are also featured, including findings that satisfaction with federal and state government performance is at record highs, with both scoring 19% for very good and 39% for good. The report notes that strongest results for state governments were recorded in Western Australia (83% combined very good and good) and the weakest were in Victoria (57%), although this is going off small sub-samples. The poll was conducted July 1 to 5 from a sample of 1000, just as the breakout in Victoria was beginning to gather pace.

• The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare has published the National Drug Strategy Household Survey 2019, in which 22,274 respondents were surveyed by Roy Morgan between April and September 2019 about their use of and attitudes towards illegal drugs. On the latter count, it found a plurality in favour of legalising cannabis for the first time, with 41% supportive and 37% opposed, with support having risen from 21% since 2007. It also found 57% support for allowing pill testing with 27% opposed.

Kevin Bonham offers an interesting look at the unweighted data on voting intention that Essential Research effectively provides in its otherwise voting intention-less poll results, by way of identifying the size of the subsamples in its survey question breakdowns (for example, in the latest polls you can see from the “base” rows in the tables breaking down responses by voting intention that the sample included 299 Labor voters, 420 for the Coalition and 108 for the Greens). Notwithstanding the lack of weighting, the results paint an intuitively plausible picture of collapsing government support at the time of the bushfires, a reset when COVID-19 first reared its head, and an ongoing surge in Coalition support on the back of its support packages and the largely successful efforts to suppress the virus. These movements are considerably more variable than anything recorded by Newspoll, which has maintained the unnatural stability that was its hallmark before the 2019 election, despite its methodological overhaul.

Some wash-up from the Eden-Monaro by-election:

• John Black, former Labor Senator and now executive director of Australian Development Strategies, offered an ecological analysis of voting patterns in the Eden-Monaro by-election in The Australian on Monday. This pointed to a strong age-related effect in which older areas swung Labor and younger areas swung Liberal. Labor-swinging areas were also low-income with large accommodation and food industry workforces, while Liberal-swinging areas were white-collar and with high levels of employment in public administration. None of this would surprise students of the electorate and the result, given the Liberal swing in Queanbeyan and the Labor swing along the coast.

• Counting in the by-election is nearly complete, with today being the last day that postal votes received will be entered in the count. The latest results are continuing to be updated as they come through on my live results page. With probably a couple of dozen postals to be entered in the count, Labor holds a lead of 764. Of remaining interest will be the distribution of preferences, presumably to be conducted early next week, which will offer some insight into exactly how many Nationals and Shooters preferences flowed to Labor – contentious subjects both on the conservative side of politics.

Meanwhile across the pond:

• Roy Morgan published a New Zealand voting intention poll this week that was shortly overtaken by events, with the conservative opposition National Party experiencing its second leadership change in two months earlier in the week. The poll had Labor down two points from the previous poll in May to 54.5%, National up half a point to 27%, the Greens up two to 9%, Act New Zealand up 1.5% to a new peak of 5%, and New Zealand First apparently headed towards extinction with a one point drop to 1.5%. The poll was conducted by phone from a sample of 879, but all we are told of the field work period is that it was conducted during June.

• Concurrent with the New Zealand election on September 19 will be a non-binding referendum on cannabis legalisation. Poll results on this question are all over the shop: one poll last month, by Colmar Brunton, had 40% for and 49% against, while another, by Horizon Research, had 56% for and 43% against.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,562 comments on “Miscellany: issues polling, drug law reform, Eden-Monaro wash-up, NZ poll”

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  1. Clueless Ivanka strikes again! She has a long history of ‘let them eat cake!’ initiatives which unsurprisingly blow up in her face. Turns out Trump’s ridiculous photo-op with the bible and gassing protesters to clear the path to the church was her idea.

    After the president’s daughter, Ivanka Trump, raised the idea of visiting the church in an email to staff members, Mr. Trump’s adviser, Hope Hicks, recommended he bring a Bible, and aides were told to secure a “pretty Bible,” according to people familiar with the episode. Ms. Hicks told associates the idea was for Mr. Trump to read scripture from the book, which he has previously claimed was his favorite, despite his apparent unfamiliarity with religious rituals.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/18/us/politics/trump-base.html?referringSource=articleShare

  2. As for the suppression vs elimination debate, I do not understand why there is a debate. We will always risk flareups as long as any international travel occurs at all, but the benefits of elimination are so much greater than suppression that the latter makes no sense. Hopefully Dan Andrews can achieve it in Victoria then agree to no border controls with other states that do the same. Like the initial lockdowns, it may be time for States to force the hands of Emporer Scomo, who has already fiddled while the country burnt once before.

    Have a good day all.

  3. Thanks BK.
    The link to the SMH editorial trying to justify the current failed ‘suppression’ strategy in NSW takes us to the most disingenuous drivel I’ve read for a while. Doubtless countersigned Peter Costello.
    Anne Davies in the Guardian told us why Gladys and Scotty want things open – it’s money; donations from the AHA and CubsNSW to be precise.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/15/nsw-government-opts-for-stricter-compliance-over-covid-19-shutdown-despite-risks-of-large-venues

    Sources have told Guardian Australia the powerful AHA and ClubsNSW have been in urgent talks with the government and opposition since the Crossroads cluster became known, in an effort to avoid measures that would curtail or shut down the industry.

    She gives a lot of supporting detail in the article. Read and weep for our country.

  4. cat,

    I’d say Smethurst answers would be “She doesn’t write the headlines” and “The copy that goes in is not necessarily the copy that comes out after her Editor reshapes it”.

  5. António Guterres
    @antonioguterres
    ·
    8h
    #COVID19 has exposed the lie that free markets can deliver healthcare for all, the fiction that unpaid care work isn’t work, the delusion that we live in a post-racist world.

    We are all floating on the same sea, but some are in superyachts & others clinging to drifting debris.

  6. Socrates
    Nothing would make me happier than Andrews achieving elimination in Vic.
    NSW would become the Pariah State.
    SfM and Gladys would have fewer clothes than that famous emperor.

  7. Lee
    @Sey2S
    ·
    43m
    On ABC breakfast news; ‘Covid-19 crisis forces fortnight sitting of Federal Parliament to be cancelled. ‘
    What about a non-partisan, accurate statement like
    …’The PM, Scott Morrison, has decided to cancel parliament…’

  8. Is this why people voted for the LNP? (Not quite a joke. Spoiler. This was a very limited study)

    A surprising new study suggests two-thirds of Australians have been exposed to a potentially mind-altering cat parasite.

    Toxoplasma gondii is famous for manipulating the brains of infected mice so they run towards cats, instead of away from them – raising questions about what it could be doing to human brains.

    Ever since toxo’s mouse-mind control powers were discovered, scientists have been intrigued by the possibility the parasite could be manipulating our brains too.

    One study published in 2016 found people with the parasite were quicker to anger and more likely to take risks. Other studies have suggested infected people are more likely to be involved in car crashes.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/cat-mind-altering-virus-widespread-in-australia-study-20200714-p55bv4.html

  9. John Hewson
    @JohnRHewson
    ·
    39m
    I like the idea of a virtual parliament – on Zoom Speaker could control and mute those he doesn’t want to hear and as we are “All in it Together” our pollies should have to be there and be held accountable – better if they also took a pay cut

  10. @bugwannostra
    ·
    3m
    People hanging shit on Daniel Andrews should be ashamed of themselves at least he turns up to work.

  11. SMH reports that Sydney police attended a Air BnB property last night to break up a rowdy party with 60 guests.

    This despite the CHO directive of no more than 20 people in a house and the owners of the property having a no party policy as part of the rental agreement.

    Most if not all will be fined.

    If the case numbers increase today the NSW Premier should make an example of these people and say the limit of anyone visiting a house is now 5 and that further transgressions will see it capped at zero.

    Plus fines increased to $6,000 per person or six months jail and/or 4 weeks hard lockdown in quarantine.

    Speaking from Melbourne the only way people will get the importance of these restrictions is through their hip pocket or potential for jail time or curtailment of leaving a building for a month.

    That idiot who drove from Werribee to the CBD for of all things butter chicken is a case in point.

  12. “ I like the idea of a virtual parliament – on Zoom Speaker could control and mute those he doesn’t want to hear and as we are “All in it Together” our pollies should have to be there and be held accountable – better if they also took a pay cut”

    I wonder if there is any constitutional impediment to a virtual parliament? I can’t remember looking into it when I studied constitutional law many years ago, and to my knowledge it hasn’t been explored since then.

    Shellbell?

  13. Why do you think I have had a gutful with the NSW media pile on of Victoria.

    They have had an outbreak in an hotel environment. Other hotels have breached rules and got a slap on the wrist.

    Going forward the restrictions commencing Friday are laughable.

    And they want to put it on Victoria.

    As I said yesterday, they can GAGF

  14. Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese says Labor accepts the Prime Minister’s decision to cancel the upcoming sitting of Parliament but wants extra dates added in September to make up for it

    What if there is wave after wave of the virus? Will Morrison use that as an excuse to shut Parliament down for months? Seems likely.

  15. And hopefully Player one may finally understand why the CMO has stated that Victoria has an infection rate of 1.1 and NSW 1.4

    Its not rocket science.

  16. Remember all the “Sleepy Joe” memes sucked up as truth by a few weak minded posters here on PB re Biden’s imminent Dementia. It was bullshit and has now been replaced by a “Biden The Evil Mastermind” meme. That’s bullshit too.

    On Saturday, the newspaper reported, “President Trump has launched a slash-and-burn campaign against an exaggerated caricature of his Democratic opponent, casting former vice president Joe Biden as a destroyer of basic freedoms and a threat to voter’s safety who would “let terrorists roam free” and ‘abolish the American way of life.’”

    “His new dystopian vision, with militant and extreme language not typical in American politics, marks a sharp departure from Trump’s previous effort to cast Biden as ‘Sleepy Joe,’ an establishment politician with deteriorating mental abilities. It marks the latest effort, orchestrated by the Trump’s advisers, to shift the conversation from rising coronavirus infections and deteriorating public support for the president’s pandemic response,” The Post explained.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/07/stephen-miller-is-behind-trumps-new-slash-and-burn-campaign-against-joe-biden-report/#.XxNXqRMiiiI.twitter

  17. Victoria @ #1064 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 8:53 am

    Why do you think I have had a gutful with the NSW media pile on of Victoria.

    They have had an outbreak in an hotel environment. Other hotels have breached rules and got a slap on the wrist.

    Going forward the restrictions commencing Friday are laughable.

    And they want to put it on Victoria.

    As I said yesterday, they can GAGF

    Only if they can do it while maintaing social distancing protocols.

  18. Maude Lynne @ #1053 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 8:23 am

    Anne Davies in the Guardian told us why Gladys and Scotty want things open – it’s money; donations from the AHA and CubsNSW to be precise.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/15/nsw-government-opts-for-stricter-compliance-over-covid-19-shutdown-despite-risks-of-large-venues

    Sources have told Guardian Australia the powerful AHA and ClubsNSW have been in urgent talks with the government and opposition since the Crossroads cluster became known, in an effort to avoid measures that would curtail or shut down the industry.

    She gives a lot of supporting detail in the article. Read and weep for our country.

    Yup. NSW upholding the traditions established by the Rum Corps 🙁

  19. GG

    This is happening right now in real time.

    Rick Wilson
    @TheRickWilson
    ·
    1h
    ‘It’s Spooky Right Now’: Inside the Creepy Federal Crackdown on Portland Protesters https://thedailybeast.com/its-spooky-right-now-inside-the-creepy-federal-crackdown-on-portland-protesters?source=twitter&via=desktop via
    @thedailybeast
    ‘It’s Spooky Right Now’: Inside the Creepy Federal Crackdown on Portland Protesters
    When Customs and Border Protection joined the protest crackdown in DC, they were made into US Marshals. In Portland, they’re using new powers provided by Trump.
    thedailybeast.com

  20. lizzie @ #1065 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 8:53 am

    Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese says Labor accepts the Prime Minister’s decision to cancel the upcoming sitting of Parliament but wants extra dates added in September to make up for it

    What if there is wave after wave of the virus? Will Morrison use that as an excuse to shut Parliament down for months? Seems likely.

    Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese says Labor accepts the Prime Minister.
    There, Mundo fixed it.

  21. Greensborough Growler @ #1068 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 8:55 am

    Remember all the “Sleepy Joe” memes sucked up as truth by a few weak minded posters here on PB re Biden’s imminent Dementia. It was bullshit and has now been replaced by a “Biden The Evil Mastermind” meme. That’s bullshit too.

    On Saturday, the newspaper reported, “President Trump has launched a slash-and-burn campaign against an exaggerated caricature of his Democratic opponent, casting former vice president Joe Biden as a destroyer of basic freedoms and a threat to voter’s safety who would “let terrorists roam free” and ‘abolish the American way of life.’”

    “His new dystopian vision, with militant and extreme language not typical in American politics, marks a sharp departure from Trump’s previous effort to cast Biden as ‘Sleepy Joe,’ an establishment politician with deteriorating mental abilities. It marks the latest effort, orchestrated by the Trump’s advisers, to shift the conversation from rising coronavirus infections and deteriorating public support for the president’s pandemic response,” The Post explained.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/07/stephen-miller-is-behind-trumps-new-slash-and-burn-campaign-against-joe-biden-report/#.XxNXqRMiiiI.twitter

    But it’s Trump and Barr who have unleashed unidentified paramilitary police into Portland, Oregon to pull innocent protesters off the streets.

  22. Insiders will be:

    Attack Andrews.

    Ignoring the fact the newsltd etc have been against restrictions and lockdowns and wanted them lifted they’ll say they should have been more.

  23. Victoria @ #1066 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 8:54 am

    And hopefully Player one may finally understand why the CMO has stated that Victoria has an infection rate of 1.1 and NSW 1.4

    Its not rocket science.

    I understand why he said it. But I don’t think he should have said it.

    In Victoria it is too early to be able to determine it with such an implied accuracy, and in NSW the numbers are currently too low to be able to determine it with any accuracy at all.

  24. The Trump administration has objected to the inclusion of billions of dollars for coronavirus testing and tracing across the country in an opening draft proposal from Senate Republicans for the next coronavirus relief package, further complicating efforts to reach an agreement on the legislation.

    The draft suggested allocating $25 billion to states for testing and contact tracing, as well as almost $10 billion to shore up the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and $15 billion to bolster the National Institutes of Health, according to a person familiar with the tentative plans, who cautioned that the final dollar figures remained in flux.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/18/world/coronavirus-news.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

  25. Player one

    What? A professor in epidemiology cant say something they understand to be the case.
    They have been spending each and every day following the data on this virus.

    You are not making any sense whatsoever.

  26. Knowing Morrison and his cronies they will try to claim having virtual parliament is a cyber attack risk

    And Albanese to appease the media will agree with Morrison

  27. Casey Briggs does such a clear comminication job that I searched for his background.

    Casey Briggs is a journalist with ABC News, covering far north Queensland for television, radio and online. He was an editor of the University of Adelaide’s student paper On Dit and the training coordinator at community station Radio Adelaide. He has a Master degree in mathematics .

  28. lizzie @ #1085 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 7:10 am

    Casey Briggs does such a clear comminication job that I searched for his background.

    Casey Briggs is a journalist with ABC News, covering far north Queensland for television, radio and online. He was an editor of the University of Adelaide’s student paper On Dit and the training coordinator at community station Radio Adelaide. He has a Master degree in mathematics .

    The mathematics probably helps with his clarity.

  29. Morrison and his cronies reluctance to

    Fix the economy
    Fix the employment rate
    Fix Education
    Fix Health
    Fix Cost of living
    Fix environmental issues
    Fix the corrupt like behaviour

    Will all be swept under the carpet ,until there is a corona virus vaccine or cure

  30. Scott @ #1083 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 9:19 am

    Morrison and his cronies reluctance to

    Fix the economy
    Fix the employment rate
    Fix Education
    Fix Health
    Fix Cost of living
    Fix environmental issues
    Fix the corrupt like behaviour

    Will all be swept under the carpet ,until there is a corona virus vaccine or cure

    …or an effective federal opposition turns up.

  31. Victoria @ #1083 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 9:07 am

    Player one

    What? A professor in epidemiology cant say something they understand to be the case.
    They have been spending each and every day following the data on this virus.

    You are not making any sense whatsoever.

    The problem is that the numbers simply do not support the statements he made – at least, not to the level of accuracy he implied. And, when you are talking about R values near 1, accuracy is critical.

    If you want the actual numbers, look here –

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-17/coronavirus-cases-data-reveals-how-covid-19-spreads-in-australia/12060704?nw=0#dailygrowth

    Compare the graphs of NSW and Victoria, and you will see what I mean.

  32. That image of Turnbull and Morrison sums up the coalition, it is a image without substance.

    It is worse that it is seen as fine to look like you are supporting your leader at the exact time you are knifing him.

    To be honest I now believe Labor needs to go hard on policy differences with the Coalition, support what needs to be supported re the Pandemic but now needs to be going harder. Needs a point of difference.

    The Coalition is all about image and being re elected Labor needs cut through with this – Polls do matter. The narrative does matter and Labor needs to get hold of the narrative.

  33. Did he really go to the football again? I didn’t catch it on TV.
    This is so arrogant.

    Eddy Jokovich
    @EddyJokovich
    ·
    53s
    22,000 went to the football yesterday. Morrison mingled with donors in the corporate box, interviewed footballers. But can’t organise 150 MPs to sit in Parliament? Lazy. And journalists seem to be OK with this and can’t see the anomaly. #insiders #auspol

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