Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

The latest Newspoll records little change on three weeks ago, with Scott Morrison dominating on personal ratings but the Coalition enjoying only a slender lead on voting intention.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49, with both major parties down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 42% and Labor to 34%. The Greens are up two to 12% and One Nation are down one to 4%. Scott Morrison’s approval is unchanged at 66%, and his disapproval is down one to 29%; Anthony Albanese is respectively down three to 41% and up one to 38%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is now 56-26, out from 56-29. The BludgerTrack leadership trends (see also on the sidebar) have been updated with these numbers. The poll was conducted online from Wednesday to Saturday, from a sample of 1512.

UPDATE: The Australian has helpfully published a PDF display of all the poll results, including for a suite of questions on coronavirus and its foreign policy implications. Opinion was divided as to whether the World Health Organisation (34% positive, 32% negative) and United Nations (23% positive, 21% negative) had had a beneficial impact on the crisis, but quite a lot clearer in relation to “Xi Jinping and the Chinese government” (6% positive, 72% negative) and “Donald Trump and the United States government” (9% positive, 79% negative). Further results are available through the link.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,741 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. “Yes, all Parties unfortunately have some of these scum in their ranks.

    This is not a Party political issue

    Move on and focus on the crime and what an abhorrent individual he is.

    Think of the children he has harmed, celebrate that that is at an end.

    Well done AFP for catching up with him.”

    ***

    Yep, well said.

    Lock him up and throw away the key.

  2. A national poll, so take as FWIW.

    Political Polls@PpollingNumbers
    ·
    3m
    National Poll:

    Biden 46% (+8)
    Trump 38%

    @Reuters/@Ipsos (6/8-9)

  3. Confessions

    Its good news. The lead is big enough to account for margin of error that led to false belief Trump could not win in 2016.

    Of more note in the CNN poll yesterday Trump was losing Catholic and Evangelical support and the little polling in swing states confirmed the national lead.

  4. A late good morning all. A transport comment today – Transurban wants to “rip up its contract” on Melbourne’s road tunnel, and either walk away or write a new contract. Oops! Sorry people, about those homes we bulldozed for nothing.

    Victorian transport minister Jacinta Allen does deserve criticism for letting this dumb project advance so far. Obviously, she does not read Pollbludger 🙂
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/transurban-launches-legal-action-against-west-gate-tunnel-s-builders-20200609-p550on.html

    The lesson here is that any Minister who gets told that PPP deals eliminate risk for government should immediately sack the relevant policy advisor. They do not. When the State’s powers get used to advance a project (e.g. compulsorily acquire land) the minister always carries the can. And don’t say nobody warned you about NE link either.

  5. “Unfortunately in the past, some posters have tried to make it so.”

    ***

    I think in cases like this it’s obvious that any party wouldn’t have have had a clue about his sick… interests… You can even almost certainly say the same about his closest family who are no doubt completely shocked by this news. It’s a reminder that people aren’t always who they make themselves out to be.

  6. “There’s not many from the right here!”

    ***

    That depends entirely on what you think constitutes a right winger. This blog is full of moderate/establishment/centrist right wingers who are being held accountable by a few lefties. There aren’t many far-right extremists here, which is probably the right you are talking about.

  7. “Yes, Greens’ posters, if I remember rightly, about Bob Collins. Not to mention, Milton Orkopoulos.”

    ***

    I have never even mentioned those names in my life lol. So whoever you are talking about it certainly wasn’t me, Cat.

  8. Confessions @ #1254 Wednesday, June 10th, 2020 – 9:14 am

    A national poll, so take as FWIW.

    Political Polls@PpollingNumbers
    ·
    3m
    National Poll:

    Biden 46% (+8)
    Trump 38%

    @Reuters/@Ipsos (6/8-9)

    The Democrats need to keep hitting Trump every day, multiple times a day in multiple ways, with hard-hitting ads, every day until the November election. And twice on Sundays! It’s what Trump is going to try and do to Joe Biden.

  9. State Governments used to build stuff using borrowed money up until about 1990. That worked fine. Bringing in private rent-seekers just privatises gains while the risk stays with the taxpayer. They don’t bring about savings or risk reductions.

    If I were renovating my bathroom, I wouldn’t sell it to a contractor, let them do it up and when they’d finished then pay them a fee each time I wanted to use it.

  10. Phillip Lodge
    @phlogga
    ·
    2m
    The huge amounts of money being thrown around to support businesses and to reboot manufacturing in Australia make the amount required to maintain our once upon a time car making industry look like pocket money. Another great legacy from Sir Tony and Lord Hockey.

  11. firefox:

    [‘Lock him up and throw away the key.’]

    Yes, by all means, do that but not until he pleads guilty or a jury finds him so. Until then the common law principle of the presumption of innocence applies (see also Article 11 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights).

  12. Steve

    You can’t say that on this blog. Opposing privatisation is too radical a position to win elections according to a lot of Labor posters on this blog.

    That makes you a communist. 🙂

  13. Guytaur
    Transurban isn’t privatisatised because it was never an actual government department but was set up as independent business.

  14. ‘Overwhelming exasperation’ among Trump allies after his ‘beyond stupid’ attack on police violence victim: report

    On Tuesday, President Donald Trump attacked a 75-year-old protester who was hospitalized after Buffalo Police shoved him to the ground.

    Trump tweeted — without evidence — that Martin Gigino “could be an ANTIFA provocateur.”

    Trump’s unfounded allegation drew condemnation, with Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) saying “it was a shocking thing to say.”

    “Trump’s speculation — which originated on a conspiracy website and was not supported by any evidence

    “Among many of Trump’s allies, however, the reaction was one of overwhelming exasperation, with one outside adviser describing his tweet as ‘dumb’ and ‘beyond stupid.’

    Trump had been making inroads with black voters and they viewed his latest controversy as another act of self-sabotage,” the newspaper reported.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-draws-rebukes-for-suggesting-75-year-old-protester-pushed-to-the-ground-in-buffalo-was-part-of-a-set-up/2020/06/09/968ed40e-aa66-11ea-9063-e69bd6520940_story.html

  15. Mexican

    So there is a government works department still existing with actual employees who can do the work? Andrews can tell Transurban to go whistle Dixie?

  16. John Holland and Transurban both probably employ more lawyers than they do engineers. It is how these situations often arise. The lawyers are there to mess things around so the other side backs down (using variations to the original contract as the excuse). Leightons was another odious example of this practice, Lend Lease is another. It will be interesting to see whether John Holland or Transurban have the better lawyers

  17. “Yes, by all means, do that but not until he pleads guilty or a jury finds him so. ”

    ***

    Yes, obviously… I wasn’t suggesting that he be denied a fair trial. Bit of a long bow to draw.

  18. Mexican

    There is your problem. Its a major road project in Melbourne. Kinda a State road whatever official government designation.

    If we are going to have States doing the work as the LNP want they will have to raise taxes to fund states better.

  19. Zwaktyld @ #1278 Wednesday, June 10th, 2020 – 9:49 am

    John Holland and Transurban both probably employ more lawyers than they do engineers. It is how these situations often arise. The lawyers are there to mess things around so the other side backs down (using variations to the original contract as the excuse). Leightons was another odious example of this practice, Lend Lease is another. It will be interesting to see whether John Holland or Transurban have the better lawyers

    They didn’t win against Dan Andrews last time, after he first came to power.

  20. phoenixRED,
    And there goes the elderly Catholic vote as well. The old guy was a peace activist, fcs! In the mold of Jesus Christ himself!

  21. It seems that Josh is persevering with his snap-back delusions.

    It’s a hope with little credibility, which screams;

    “I’ve got no idea what to do!!!”

    Josh Frydenberg is continuing the ‘curve is flattening, so, so is the stimulus’ line on Adelaide radio 5AA.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2020/jun/10/australia-coronavirus-latest-news-coalition-labor-jobkeeper-parliament-childcare-nsw-victoria-queensland-politics-live

  22. MB @9:42. “They charged tolls on the Westgate Bridge and Transurban was a government creation.”

    They charged tolls on the Harbour Bridge too but it remained in public ownership.

  23. ar

    I never said be complacent. I was commenting on what the lead says. That of course is a snapshot of the past and does not mean the polls will be the same on election day.

    On a psephology blog I thought I would not have to make this obvious point.

  24. Bob Carr had the right idea in his election winning campaign. Abolish toll roads.

    Make them freeways. Of course that must make him a communist.

  25. And just to remind ourselves of the global effect Donald Trump and his White Supremacist supporters and enablers are having, here we have today’s nominees for ‘Dangerously Gullible Idiots of the Day’ award:

    Four British neo-Nazis have been jailed on terrorism charges
    The four members of National Action, a banned far-right protest group preparing for a “race war”, have been sentenced at Birmingham Crown Court. Among those convicted were Mark Jones and his former girlfriend Alice Cutter, who once took part in a “Miss Hitler” beauty pageant.

    I’m not going to put up the photos of them but you can just imagine what they surrounded themselves with as they took their social media photos.

  26. Firefox @ #1220 Wednesday, June 10th, 2020 – 8:04 am

    Essential poll: most Australians believe there is institutional racism in the US but not Australia

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jun/10/essential-poll-most-australians-believe-there-is-institutional-racism-in-the-us-but-not-australia

    How utterly delusional. Australia has a massive problem with racism. You can take your pick from the way the country treated/treats First Australians; to the way such a large section of the population support parties that run on platforms of inciting racism (Coalition, One Nation, etc…); to the bipartisan support that the barbaric practice of throwing innocent asylum seekers fleeing war and persecution into indefinite detention on remote islands receives from Labor and the Coalition.

    The establishment in Australia is making a lot of noise lately about how disgusting Trump is, and he certainly is that, but at the same time they continue to support deeply racist policies in their own country. Absolute hypocrites.

    Utterly astonishing, isn’t it? Apparently “only 30% believe there is institutional racism in Australian police forces”. WTF? How many arrests for trivial crimes, beatings, or deaths in custody is it going to take?

    This is just so staggeringly out of touch with reality, it is hard to know where to start dissecting it. Is it hypocrisy, or is it just plain ignorance? Given Australian’s propensity for the latter, I think it may be that not enough Australians have ever lived outside the “white bread” areas of Sydney and Melbourne 🙁

  27. P1

    its easily explained not easily solved.

    Murdoch Propaganda unit.

    Edit: telling facts about this on the ABC is why the ABC is that leftist outlet.

  28. Barney in Tanjung Bunga

    It seems that Josh is persevering with his snap-back delusions.

    No, what Josh Boy is persevering with is called ‘snatch-back’. Especially from all those rotten stinking bastards who stole his ‘precious’, the mythical ‘Surplus”.

  29. Firefox says:
    Wednesday, June 10, 2020 at 9:31 am
    “There’s not many from the right here!”

    ***

    That depends entirely on what you think constitutes a right winger. This blog is full of moderate/establishment/centrist right wingers who are being held accountable by a few lefties.

    Well…..a healthy number of bludgers do their best to hold the LibKin up to the light.

  30. It was against this backdrop that Trump’s musings on Twitter drew a sharp rebuke from the Buffalo man’s lawyer, condemnation from Democrats and a now-familiar refrain from many Republicans claiming not to have seen a tweet by the president that was making headlines.

    The Sergeant Schulz Defence.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-draws-rebukes-for-suggesting-75-year-old-protester-pushed-to-the-ground-in-buffalo-was-part-of-a-set-up/2020/06/09/968ed40e-aa66-11ea-9063-e69bd6520940_story.html

  31. PlayerOne
    I don’t believe there is institutional racism but there is a cultural attitude problem towards disadvantaged groups and Indigenous Australians experience it on a larger scale because they are more exposed to how we treat the disadvantaged because the same problems of mistreatment are seen in aged care and the disabled.

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