Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

The latest Newspoll records little change on three weeks ago, with Scott Morrison dominating on personal ratings but the Coalition enjoying only a slender lead on voting intention.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49, with both major parties down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 42% and Labor to 34%. The Greens are up two to 12% and One Nation are down one to 4%. Scott Morrison’s approval is unchanged at 66%, and his disapproval is down one to 29%; Anthony Albanese is respectively down three to 41% and up one to 38%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is now 56-26, out from 56-29. The BludgerTrack leadership trends (see also on the sidebar) have been updated with these numbers. The poll was conducted online from Wednesday to Saturday, from a sample of 1512.

UPDATE: The Australian has helpfully published a PDF display of all the poll results, including for a suite of questions on coronavirus and its foreign policy implications. Opinion was divided as to whether the World Health Organisation (34% positive, 32% negative) and United Nations (23% positive, 21% negative) had had a beneficial impact on the crisis, but quite a lot clearer in relation to “Xi Jinping and the Chinese government” (6% positive, 72% negative) and “Donald Trump and the United States government” (9% positive, 79% negative). Further results are available through the link.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,741 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. Vogon Poet @ #947 Tuesday, June 9th, 2020 – 1:38 pm

    I’ll never be a right winger, just don’t have the mental furniture to envisage building new coal power stations as a current solution to power requirements.

    The combination of dishonesty and stupidity required would do me in, even when I was drunk and and trying to explain why it wasn’t my fault that I drove straight over the round about, I didn’t get close to that level of shitfuckery.

  2. We are not dissimilar to SA except we don’t have an inter connector to save our arses when the wind doesn’t blow and the sun doesn’t shine – and we can see how well that works for SA power consumers.

    What are you on about? The inter-connector doesnt save anyones arses anymore than an interstate highway does. These are important pieces of infrastructure for a federation and if we had a half decent federal government there would be two inter-connectors that would benefit all states connected to the NEM.

    You are on an increasingly irrational political crusade against meaningful action on climate change – a change that threatens security of food and water resources, that increases risks to life and economic growth through natural disasters and rising temperatures, threats to ecosystems and biodiversity, with the potential to lead to global political instability.

    Have a walk through the hall of mirrors bloke, to see what your crusade makes you look like. Take someone with you just in case.

  3. Simon Katich @ #952 Tuesday, June 9th, 2020 – 1:50 pm

    We are not dissimilar to SA except we don’t have an inter connector to save our arses when the wind doesn’t blow and the sun doesn’t shine – and we can see how well that works for SA power consumers.

    What are you on about? The inter-connector doesnt save anyones arses anymore than an interstate highway does. These are important pieces of infrastructure for a federation and if we had a half decent federal government there would be two inter-connectors that would benefit all states connected to the NEM.

    You are on an increasingly irrational political crusade against meaningful action on climate change – a change that threatens security of food and water resources, that increases risks to life and economic growth through natural disasters and rising temperatures, threats to ecosystems and biodiversity, with the potential to lead to global political instability.

    Have a walk through the hall of mirrors bloke, to see what your crusade makes you look like. Take someone with you just in case.

    I think frankly he / she / them are just trolling, it was fun for a bit.

  4. Cud Chewer @3.04
    Thanks for your contributions. Have you any thoughts on the future of Redox Flow batteries. It would seems to me that they are the natural complement to Li-ion batteries for large-scale installations.

  5. So WA is back in the dam building game? Haven’t built a new substantial dam near Perth since North Dandalup in 1994.

    Do the Greenies know because they will be chaining themselves to bulldozers again.

  6. Gas is too unreliable as a power source – just remember Longford

    “The Esso Longford gas explosion was a catastrophic industrial accident which occurred at the Esso natural gas plant at Longford in the Australian state of Victoria’s Gippsland region. On 25 September 1998, an explosion took place at the plant, killing two workers and injuring eight. Gas supplies to the state of Victoria were severely affected for two weeks.”

    Looks like we should all rely on, IDK, burning coal at home? Everything else is too unreliable.

  7. “Vogon Poetsays:
    Tuesday, June 9, 2020 at 3:51 pm
    difficult decisions ahead

    aka pain misery and suffering for all ( mates excluded)”

    Yup. As expected, LNP going to screw up the recovery.

  8. Bucephalus @ #957 Tuesday, June 9th, 2020 – 2:04 pm

    So WA is back in the dam building game? Haven’t built a new substantial dam near Perth since North Dandalup in 1994.

    Do the Greenies know because they will be chaining themselves to bulldozers again.

    It was nearly a year ago now I was listening to details of a battery that was pretty much simply a crane, with an electric motor (they are pretty good at using and releasing energy), a computer program to direct it, and big heavy concrete blocks that are stacked up to store energy and brought down to release it.

    The tiny little minds and frames of reference people have in this area is quite hilarious.

  9. As we watch across the ditch at everything that NZ touches turn to gold, will we see Labor make the simple campaign slogan.

    NZ is gold, cos they have a labor government…

  10. Bill Shorten needs to continue his relentless attacks on the lib/nats and their propaganda unit the media particular newsltd/corp

    Other members of the Labor party need to do the same , make the lib/nats and newts ltd hack wish they were somewhere else

    The greens need to do the same , go after the lib/nats and their propaganda units , do not relent

    ATTACK ATTACK

  11. “WeWantPaulsays:
    Tuesday, June 9, 2020 at 4:09 pm

    It was nearly a year ago now I was listening to details of a battery that was pretty much simply a crane…”

    This thing

    https://energyvault.com/

    One issue to consider with all this, and I think it is a real issue, is the NIMBY response.

  12. Labor and the greens need to bellow in both houses of Parliament

    Bellow and Bellow about the corrupt behaviour of Morrison and his cronies

    Bellow and Bellow on the corrupt behaviour of the IPA , Newsltd/corp and rest of the Media for their corruptive behaviour in protecting the Lib/nats

  13. I think frankly he / she / them are just trolling, it was fun for a bit.

    I try to assume people are genuine.

    I am all for close scrutiny of new technologies and government subsidies. I was highly critical of the SA FiT rebate for example. Unfortunately there are many who use scrutiny to cover for outright rejection of any action on climate change.

  14. Scott @ #965 Tuesday, June 9th, 2020 – 2:13 pm

    Labor and the greens need to bellow in both houses of Parliament

    Bellow and Bellow about the corrupt behaviour of Morrison and his cronies

    Bellow and Bellow on the corrupt behaviour of the IPA , Newsltd/corp and rest of the Media for their corruptive behaviour in protecting the Lib/nats

    They have to use the word corruption outside Parliament constantly. If they get sued for it, even better, it is a giant big spotlight on the corruption.

    If they use the word, particularly outside of Parliament the media can run with ‘Corruption’ stories they are just too scared to use now.

    But they lack the basic courage and integrity. Labor were the ones telling us, not that long ago, that Canberra water purified all who work there and that an ICAC was entirely unnecessary.

  15. Ken Wyatt doing a good interview with Karvelas. Sounds much stronger and more definite than I’ve heard before.

  16. “Scottsays:
    Tuesday, June 9, 2020 at 4:13 pm
    Labor and the greens need to bellow in both houses of Parliament

    Bellow and Bellow about the corrupt behaviour of Morrison and his cronies

    Bellow and Bellow on the corrupt behaviour of the IPA , Newsltd/corp and rest of the Media for their corruptive behaviour in protecting the Lib/nats”

    I’m going to sort-of disagree. All that’s fine, but it won’t win an election. I think it’s an OK strategy for the Greens; their voters respond to that sort of thing as they can usually afford it.

    For the ALP though, they need to really push a fairly selfish agenda – people are going to be better off because…whatever bribe they can offer. With the coming increase in unemployment, that’s going to be the more convincing line.

  17. Bellow and Bellow

    The lies and reneging on policies by Morrison and his cronies

    Bellow and Bellow

    The incompetence by every member of lib/nats in Morrison’s team

  18. boerwar @ #963 Tuesday, June 9th, 2020 – 4:10 pm

    ‘shellbell says:
    Tuesday, June 9, 2020 at 2:54 pm

    ASX rocketing again’

    Buy the rumour, sell the fact.

    The few-line summary of Jeremy Grantham’s argument is –

    The current P/E on the U.S. market is in the top 10% of its history.

    The U.S. economy in contrast is in its worst 10%, perhaps even the worst 1%.

    In addition, everything is uncertain, perhaps to a unique degree.

    The market’s P/E level typically reflects current conditions (please see Appendix).

    Markets have historically loved fat margins, low inflation, stability and, by inference, low levels of uncertainty.

    This is apparently one of the most impressive mismatches in history.

    That being said, this is a new type of crisis and much will be different.

    https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/1q-2020-gmo-quarterly-letter/

  19. nath @ #863 Tuesday, June 9th, 2020 – 1:53 pm

    C@tmomma
    says:
    Nope. If you wish to be staunch, you support both. A house divided cannot stand. We all need to put our shoulders to the wheel to get Labor elected because it’s them or the Coalition. And they need 77+ MPs elected to do it and Dr Chalmers is one of them.
    _____________
    We all know y0ur real opinions about Albo. You and zoomster used to mock him regularly. You want him replaced, either by Shorten or Chalmers. Chalmers made a speech.

    And I’m not afraid to stand by that assessment. As I told Peter Lewis the other week. Not Bill Shorten though. However, otoh, I’m honest enough to admit that I’m all for Albanese until the next federal election.

    What I also feel is that you’re not honest enough to outline exactly what it is you have against Dr Chalmers and why? It just seems like you have simply and conveniently transferred your anti Labor animus from Bill Shorten to Dr Chalmers.

  20. Poliphili

    “Have you any thoughts on the future of Redox Flow batteries.”.

    Yep, some. You remind me that I visited Professor Maria Skyllas-Kazacos’s lab back in the early 80s when it was still very much a home brew affair (with a fish tank). I was thinking of doing a Masters with them but there just wasn’t physical room.

    Flow batteries are struggling to find their niche. The reason is that there are two separate costs involved. The cost of the reactor where you’re paying per unit of power and the cost of the storage where you’re paying per unit of energy and its the former that’s proven difficult to cost reduce. They make a lot of sense in a situation where you need a long duration backup, like 10 hours+. But lithium keeps getting cost reduced also.

    See:
    https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/flow-batteries-struggle-in-2019-as-lithium-ion-marches-on
    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/10/new-generation-flow-batteries-could-eventually-sustain-grid-powered-sun-and-wind

    There’s also liquid metal based batteries (electrolysis)
    https://reneweconomy.com.au/us-grid-scale-battery-start-looks-australia-rd-manufacturing-89966/

    And then there’s also some advanced compressed air storage systems and I bet hydrogen will get a look in as an energy storage medium for medium term (weeks to months) of storage. Not particularly efficient in a round-trip sense but that doesn’t particularly matter in a system with an over-provision of solar.

  21. WeWantPaul says:
    Tuesday, June 9, 2020 at 2:56 pm
    shellbell @ #907 Tuesday, June 9th, 2020 – 12:54 pm

    ASX rocketing again
    I’m not economist but what does the ASX rocketing while civil society crumbles and the economy is headed from recession to depression mean?

    its a confluence of factors: technically – the charts breaking thru specific fibs, a recognition Central Banks have a buy every asset class mentality, massive printed money from the same criminal co-ops running them, BBB rated (junk) bonds being made whole by the same central banks and finally

    a recognition that “Govt owned by the big corporates for the big corporates” will be driving policies of massively rewarding the same Corporates and their lobyists at the expense of workers and the other 99% for a long time yet.

    If you bought in a day or too after the bottom which imo was obvious when the market turned up 10%+ in one afternoon after a massive reversal intra day on buying by the Jap Central Bank you’re well ahead.

    Is this a good thing for everyone else… Ask morrison what he thinks.

  22. WeWantPaul says:
    Tuesday, June 9, 2020 at 4:17 pm

    They have to use the word corruption outside Parliament constantly. If they get sued for it, even better, it is a giant big spotlight on the corruption.

    ————-

    Good point , the libs/nats and newsltd/corp would be stupid to try to sue Labor

    When the evidence is shown that the IPA , newsltd/corp are linked politically to Libs/nats , with current IPA members are Liberal Party members of Parliament

    There are newsltd/corp hacks members of th IPA

  23. Buce you’ve also not considered the Hazer process which takes natural gas and turns it into hydrogen (and solid graphite). The hydrogen is just perfect for running open cycle gas turbines for backup.

  24. CC – “I bet hydrogen will get a look in”

    I think there’s a real opportunity there for Australia as well. Developing a hydrogen sector would be a good way of leveraging the skills of the soon to be many unemployed process engineers in Perth. The skills we’ve got locally in running and developing LNG facilities would be as good a fit as anything for that.

  25. Blobbit there’s a number of takes on potentail energy storage. One such system just runs trains loaded with rocks up and down a hill. The problem with these systems (and the energy vault) is the sheer masses involved – those add up in cost too. Water is still the cheapest mass you can move.

  26. C@tmomma
    What I also feel is that you’re not honest enough to outline exactly what it is you have against Dr Chalmers and why? It just seems like you have simply and conveniently transferred your anti Labor animus from Bill Shorten to Dr Chalmers.
    ________________________________
    How can you compare my dislike of Shorten to Chalmers. The first is like a thousand blazing flames, the second, a mere puff of smoke. The tale Rudd tells of Chalmers is quite telling of his character, and one he has never disputed. OTOH I feel like you have transferred your allegiance from Shorten to Chalmers, and am just waiting to help plunge the knife into Albo at the first opportunity. Like many of your Right faction colleagues.

  27. Blobbit

    Hydrogen makes most sense when its made locally and used locally as a store of energy for production of cement and steel. It doesn’t make as much sense if exported because its expensive to liquify and transport. We need to think about going back to making stuff that requires hydrogen to make – like steel. and then export that.

  28. nath

    I seem to recall that you support the Greens, therefore you are on a crusade to demonise Labor. I hadn’t realised that before. I thought you were just mean and nasty.

  29. “Cud Chewersays:
    Tuesday, June 9, 2020 at 4:30 pm
    Blobbit

    Hydrogen makes most sense when its made locally and used locally as a store of energy for production of cement and steel. It doesn’t make as much sense if exported because its expensive to liquify and transport. We need to think about going back to making stuff that requires hydrogen to make – like steel. and then export that.”

    I agree that it’s expensive to export – but then so is LNG. I appreciate that there’s a key difference in that solar and wind can be harvested anywhere, while gas can’t. I still think though that Australia has some advantages that means H2 export could be viable. We’ve got experience in exporting liquefied gases (yes, I know H2 is much harder), experience in setting up the refrigeration processes and plenty of sun and space.

    That’s not to say we shouldn’t do other things with it as well.

  30. alpha Zero

    As we watch across the ditch at everything that NZ touches turn to gold, will we see Labor make the simple campaign slogan.

    NZ is gold, cos they have a labor government…
    —————
    They’re better spellers across the ditch too, cos they have a Labour government.

  31. lizzie
    says:
    Tuesday, June 9, 2020 at 4:32 pm
    nath
    I seem to recall that you support the Greens, therefore you are on a crusade to demonise Labor. I hadn’t realised that before. I thought you were just mean and nasty.
    ____________
    Well I vote Greens often. Before that I voted for the ALP. I like Albo. And I think he will be a good PM. He has an incredible amount of dead wood on his front bench. A veritable pile of lumber. And the dangerous Shorten always slouching around with dagger poised. It will be hard for Albo to prevail. But I hope he does.

  32. “Cud Chewersays:
    Tuesday, June 9, 2020 at 4:28 pm
    Blobbit there’s a number of takes on potentail energy storage. One such system just runs trains loaded with rocks up and down a hill. The problem with these systems (and the energy vault) is the sheer masses involved – those add up in cost too. Water is still the cheapest mass you can move.”

    Agreed, it is. Dams have problems though – from an environmental POV they’re pretty awful. I tend to think that renewables will probably mean that a whole suite of different storage options will be required. Pumped hydro where it’s easy, liquid molten metals, H2, moving masses around, chemical batteries. The idea there is a single answer is in itself a problem.

  33. What I can’t understand is the all-or-nothing argument when it comes to fossil fuels and renewables for electricity generation……………..
    When internal combustion engines came on the scene, horses were not slaughtered over night.
    When steam trains went and were replaced by other types of locomotives, it also was over a number of years.
    It took the jet engine a long time to be properly adapted to commercial airliners.
    Just three examples of the top of the head.
    Horses are now for entertainment and pleasure, steam engines for buffs of the genre and piston- engined planes relegated to small commercial aircraft.
    Fairly obvious point is that for some interim period, fossil fuel burning will still likely be need to supplement other forms of electrical generation until such time as it is not needed at all.
    The Hazelwood chimneys came down a few weeks ago and it is only a matter of time before all coal fired power stations in the Latrobe Valley will go the same way….

  34. GG

    That tells you about the parlours state of the Labor party in the Federal sphere.

    Of course you conveniently ignore all the LNP should.

    Ditch their failed ideology.
    Actually help people. A real stimulus package.
    Get some integrity.
    Accept scientific fact.
    And the list goes on.

  35. Oooops!

    A Victorian brewer has issued an urgent recall after accidentally selling bottles of hand sanitiser labelled as gin.

    Great Ocean Road Brewhouse said nine bottles of Apollo Gin Distillery’s SS Casino Gin bought in the southern Victorian town between Friday, June 5, and Sunday, June 7, were incorrectly labeled and had no seal.

    The bottles were labelled as gin.

    “However, it is not gin,” the brewer says in its recall notice.

    The bottles – which can be identified by their lack of a shrink wrap seal, contain glycerol and hydrogen peroxide.

    The contents should not be consumed. Doing so is likely to cause headaches and vomiting, among other reactions.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/consumer/2020/06/09/apollo-bay-distillery-gin-sanitiser/

  36. Eddy Jokovich
    @EddyJokovich
    ·
    Jun 8
    Did anyone mention to the Queens Honours Committee Graham Richardson is one of the most corrupt politicians in Australian history? Marshall Islands affair, Offset Alpine, Swiss bank accounts, Rene Rivkin, etc. Turncoat. Why is he getting a gong this year? #auspol

    A veritable role model.

  37. Tricot

    It’s the vested interests in the fossil fuel industry that are all or nothing.
    The rest of us wanted a carbon price so we could manage a reasonable transition over time.

  38. “The contents should not be consumed. Doing so is likely to cause headaches and vomiting, among other reactions.”

    Alcohol can do that anyway, in my experience.

  39. nath @ #978 Tuesday, June 9th, 2020 – 4:28 pm

    C@tmomma
    What I also feel is that you’re not honest enough to outline exactly what it is you have against Dr Chalmers and why? It just seems like you have simply and conveniently transferred your anti Labor animus from Bill Shorten to Dr Chalmers.
    ________________________________
    How can you compare my dislike of Shorten to Chalmers. The first is like a thousand blazing flames, the second, a mere puff of smoke. The tale Rudd tells of Chalmers is quite telling of his character, and one he has never disputed. OTOH I feel like you have transferred your allegiance from Shorten to Chalmers, and am just waiting to help plunge the knife into Albo at the first opportunity. Like many of your Right faction colleagues.

    I wouldn’t put it like that. At all. However, as lizzie has pointed out, you like to resort to the lazy, colourful and emotive cliche, devoid of substance.

    And anyway, it doesn’t matter if your personal perspective as it relates to the two men is as a mountain to a molehill, as the principle behind Chinese Water Torture will attest, a constant drip, drip, drip will achieve exactly the same results on both.

    So, at the end of the day, you have to decide, as there are only two dogs in the political fight at election time, if you are being honest, are you for us, or agin us and for the Coalition? You may say you are for Albanese, but if you keep up the atacks on Labor from now until the next election, you will likely do enough damage to perceptions of the Labor Party in general and destroy the next leader as well. And, is that what you want?

  40. Tricot @ #991 Tuesday, June 9th, 2020 – 2:42 pm

    What I can’t understand is the all-or-nothing argument when it comes to fossil fuels and renewables for electricity generation……………..
    When internal combustion engines came on the scene, horses were not slaughtered over night.
    When steam trains went and were replaced by other types of locomotives, it also was over a number of years.
    It took the jet engine a long time to be properly adapted to commercial airliners.
    Just three examples of the top of the head.
    Horses are now for entertainment and pleasure, steam engines for buffs of the genre and piston- engined planes relegated to small commercial aircraft.
    Fairly obvious point is that for some interim period, fossil fuel burning will still likely be need to supplement other forms of electrical generation until such time as it is not needed at all.
    The Hazelwood chimneys came down a few weeks ago and it is only a matter of time before all coal fired power stations in the Latrobe Valley will go the same way….

    I think the comparison is a little misleading. Yes renewables are now clearly and significantly cheaper than traditional hydrocarbons (even without those traditional hydrocarbons coming from a competitive market or losing any of the vast public subsidies they’ve enjoyed) and the transition you are talking about would take place. Well frankly it would have started quite a while ago in a less politicized smarter place.

    But it isn’t just a cost issue, there is the whole climate crisis, do you want a planet humans can inhabit or not. Just a small bug in the ointment of change. For 30 years in Australia we’ve had our public debate dominated by conspiracy theories from vested interests and we’ve wasted time and money both on acting on the climate catastrophe and on making a sensible forward looking transition to renewables.

    The economic collapse / covid combination that is 2020 so far also gives one double the bang for the buck, invest heavily and expansively in renewables now, create jobs, create hope, and create a new post oil economy while at the same time escaping a recession heading fast towards depression.

    It is a no brainer. Just we won’t do it.

  41. C@tmomma
    says:
    So, at the end of the day, you have to decide, as there are only two dogs in the political fight at election time, if you are being honest, are you for us, or agin us and for the Coalition? You may say you are for Albanese, but if you keep up the atacks on Labor from now until the next election, you will likely do enough damage to perceptions of the Labor Party in general and destroy the next leader as well. And, is that what you want?
    ____________
    So it’s ok for your to criticise Albo when Shorten was leader but not ok for me to make fun of Chalmers when Albo is leader? I seriously doubt that anything I say about Chalmers will do any damage to the Labor party.

    I’m sorry but I will continue to do as I have been. Offer support to those in the Labor Party I believe are worthy of it and criticise those who are not. It’s called freedom of speech.

  42. Blobbit

    Hydrogen is a lot, lot harder to liquefy than natural gas. Its also a lot less dense (about 70kg per m3 versus about 424 kg per m3). If you’re going to transport hydrogen overseas you’re better transporting it as ammonia (and that also makes it less energy efficient).

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