Darwinian selection

Labor moves to save the Northern Territory’s second House of Representatives seat ahead of next month’s determination of state and territory seat entitlements.

The post below this one features Adrian Beaumont’s latest updates on the polling situation in the United States, the United Kingdom and New Zealand. Back on home turf, I have two updates to relate.

The first involves the calculation of the states’ and territories’ House of Representatives seat entitlements for the next parliament, which will be determined next month on the basis of yet-to-be published quarterly population figures from December. Barring a sudden change in population trends in the last quarter of last year, this will cause Victoria to gain a seat for the second term in a row, boosting it to 39 seats — a return to where it was when the parliament was enlarged in 1984, before a lean period for the state reduced it to 37 in 1996. It is even more clear that Western Australia will lose the sixteenth seat it has had for the past two terms, reflecting the waxing and waning of the mining and resources boom.

Relatedly — and to get to my main point — the Northern Territory is also set to lose a seat, unless something comes of Labor Senator Malarndirri McCarthy’s announcement last week that she will introduce a bill to guarantee the territory its existing two seats. The territory just scraped over the line with 1.502 population quotas at the last determination in 2017, rounding up to an entitlement of two seats, and has since experienced a continuation of relative decline since the resource boom halcyon days of 2009 — and even then its population only amounted to 1.54 quotas.

The Northern Territory was first divided into its current two seats of Solomon and Lingiari in 2001, but its claim to a second seat has been consistently precarious. It would have reverted to one seat in 2004 if not for a legislative fix to change definitions in a way that put it over the threshold, which received bipartisan support partly because both major parties imagined at that time that they could win both seats. This proved a forlorn hope in the Coalition’s case, with Lingiari having remained with Labor at all times and Solomon having fallen their way in both 2016 and 2019.

As a result, Solomon and Lingiari have consistently had the lowest enrolments in the country, at a shade below 70,000 at the time of the 2019 federal election, compared with an average of 110,755 in the mainland states, 98,644 in the Australian Capital Territory (which gained a third seat last year) and 77,215 in Tasmania (which maintains the constitutionally mandated minimum of five seats for the six original states). Conversely, a single Northern Territory seat would have an enrolment far greater than any other, with the unfortunate effect of under-representing its indigenous population, which accounts for more than a quarter of the total.

My other update relates to the July 4 Eden-Monaro by-election, for which nominations close on Tuesday. The Daily Telegraph ($) reports four candidates have nominated for the Nationals’ Eden-Monaro preselection, to be held on Sunday: Trevor Hicks, deputy mayor of Queanbeyan-Palerang; Fleur Flanery, owner of Australian Landscape Conference; Mareeta Grundy, a dietician; and Michael Green, a farmer from Nimmitabel. The Greens announced on the weekend that their candidate will be Cathy Griff, a Bega Valley Shire councillor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,310 comments on “Darwinian selection”

Comments Page 23 of 27
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  1. I don’t think it would be the end of the Greens if she left, but it would be bad for them of course. However, she has been a faction of one for ages, kept putting up her hand at leadership spill time with no interest. If she leaves, maybe its something about SA political culture with a long history of breakaway groups and independants amongst everyone except (I think) Labor. If she does, and its just speculation at present, I expect she would serve out her term and then lose. The Greens brand is still stronger than any independent environmental candidate. She was reelected for six years in 2019, so will be around for a while.

  2. GG: “It was an announceable so Morrison could get a few headlines around being seen to be doing something and probably ties in with Eden -Monaro by-election. It’s a “chicken soup” policy. It doesn’t really help. But, it doesn’t really hurt.”

    Yep, I pretty much agree with all of that. But I do like chicken soup and it always makes me feel better.

  3. Regarding SHY,

    Why would she feel the need to present such a message outside the Greens framework?

    Isn’t that what the Greens are meant to be about?

  4. meher baba @ #1101 Sunday, June 7th, 2020 – 9:57 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga: “As such, as stimulus measure, it’s benefit is questionable.”

    Most stimulus measures tend to fund things that were already on the drawing board. After all, if the depression is happening now, it doesn’t make much sense to fund things that will take several years to get going.

    …

    What like $1,000 cheques, school halls and pink bats?

  5. but contains a redesign of the famous Greens Triangle logo.

    The logo at the top of the site is an outline of South Australia.

    The iconic Greens triangle is at the bottom of the web page and every web page.

    If you click on menu – Get Involved… then…Join the Team : https://www.sarahhansonyoung.com/volunteer

    You will see

    Volunteer With Sarah And The Greens

  7. Leroy: “I don’t think it would be the end of the Greens if she left, but it would be bad for them of course. However, she has been a faction of one for ages, kept putting up her hand at leadership spill time with no interest. If she leaves, maybe its something about SA political culture with a long history of breakaway groups and independants amongst everyone except (I think) Labor. If she does, and its just speculation at present, I expect she would serve out her term and then lose. The Greens brand is still stronger than any independent environmental candidate.”

    Well we’ll see about that.

    I reckon the Greens would have done well to make her leader: I have always found her charismatic and impressive. Perhaps that’s partly because she reminds me very much of the charming young ladies of the far left with whom I used to fraternise at uni. But, more recently, I think that her stand against sexual harassment in Parliament demonstrated a great deal of inner strength and an ability to cut through with a really powerful message.

    Anyway, rightly or wrongly, I have to confess to being a bit of a fan of SHY, notwithstanding that – outside of questions of the environment and sexual harassment – we probably have diametrically-opposed views on almost every issue.

  8. leroy: “Van Badham @vanbadham
    I’d suggest this is more likely a preselection campaign from someone whose internal numbers are shaky. #auspol”

    Now I’m convinced it’s a split.

    And, in passing, I’ll observe that effectively renouncing your political party in public is a rather novel way of enhancing your preselection prospects!

  10. Vic:

    I noted speculation earlier last week that GWB wouldn’t endorse Trump for re-election. I wonder if he’ll vote for Biden?

  11. meher baba @ #1101 Sunday, June 7th, 2020 – 9:57 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga: “As such, as stimulus measure, it’s benefit is questionable.”

    Most stimulus measures tend to fund things that were already on the drawing board. After all, if the depression is happening now, it doesn’t make much sense to fund things that will take several years to get going.

    …

    Stimulus should be about finding a balance.

    You need some immediate measures that counter the initial shock, but then you need longer term ones that assist vulnerable areas of the economy get through the recovery phase.

    The renovation programme is of the second longer term type, so it is unlikely to have much immediate impact and it’s long term effects are severely limited by the time frame for the programme.

  12. Barney: “What like $1,000 cheques, school halls and pink bats?”

    Read my post in full. The $1,000 cheques were a great idea, but limited in terms of the areas of the economy they benefited (they were certainly terrific news for Gerry Harvey).

    The pink batts were a great short-term stimulus initiative, until they turned out not to be for non-economic reasons.

    The school halls took years, and that’s why they were the subject of a lot of criticism from the Opposition.

    Taken as a whole, the package of measures implemented by the Rudd Government worked very well: don’t forget that a dramatic lowering in interest rates helped very well. And Australia also benefited from the strong continuing demand from China.

    I’m not sure that the school halls were a crucial factor in the short-term, but they would certainly have contributed to sustaining the recovery over the medium to longer term. I guess ScoMo would argue the same thing in relation to the home build subsidies.

  15. Victorian fishers say catch has dropped by 80 per cent since the start of seismic testing

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-07/seismic-testing-reducing-fishing-catch-on-east-coast/12297830

    Mr Pollard said he noticed a change when two large ships started surveying for oil and gas in his usual fishing area.

    “New Year’s Eve, the bushfires in our region meant we had to evacuate; New Year’s Day, the seismic ship activity started,” he said.

    Several fishermen in the area have been compensated for their losses due to the testing, but the concerns of the industry go beyond money.

    The controversial surveying technique has been used around Australia to look for oil and gas, but some environmentalists and scientists have warned the impacts on marine life could be deadly.

    The region became the latest epicentre of the testing debate after a bid to map the Great Australian Bight faltered earlier this year.
    :::
    The Greens chair a Senate committee set up in 2017 to investigate the science and Australia’s regulation of the practice.

    It was due to release its findings earlier this month, but public hearings were delayed due to coronavirus restrictions.

    Committee chairwoman Senator Sarah Hanson-Young grew up in East Gippsland, not far from from Lakes Entrance.

    “The regulator is not really involved at that nitty-gritty level [of reporting], it’s left to the companies that want to be able to drill for oil and gas to do it,” she said.

    “There’s very little the fishing industry can do in terms of recourse … it doesn’t really help the fishers if they just get paid some money if their fish stock is down in the long term — the power imbalance is instantaneous.

    “There is just so much we don’t know about the impact of seismic testing on fishing industries, on fish stocks and on other marine life.”

    Submissions to the inquiry are still open.

  17. A post from Kevin replying to Stephen

    https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1269451517599203328
    Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham
    Wayback shows site in 2018 included those triangles and looked much as it does now
    https://web.archive.org/web/20180920222634/https://www.sarahhansonyoung.com/
    12:10 PM · Jun 7, 2020

    Maybe it is about internal brand building rather than leaving? Still kinda intersting that she bothered to run a full page ad with no mention of the Greens.

  18. It would be interesting to get an insiders view on this potential Greens branding split shemozzle.

    Any takers?

  19. “Do try and dissociate yourself from what’s occurring”

    That’s an essential skill in being on PB, Barney 😛

  20. continuo says:
    Sunday, June 7, 2020 at 10:58 am

    Before or after Murdoch and the Australian supported the election of Gough in 72 and gave the ALP free advertising?

  21. Australian Black Lives Matter protests: tens of thousands demand end to Indigenous deaths in custody

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jun/06/australian-black-lives-matter-protests-tens-of-thousands-demand-end-to-indigenous-deaths-in-custody

    Tens of thousands of people marched through Australian cities and towns for Black Lives Matter protests on Saturday, defying an attempt from the police to ban one demonstration through the courts and despite pleas from the prime minister and state leaders for people to stay home.
    :::
    At least 20,000 attended the Sydney march which passed off peacefully, except for ugly scenes when police officers used pepper spray on protesters who had flowed into Central station after the rally finished.

    Some protestors were hurt by the spray, with eyes streaming, and there were accusations that the remaining crowd had been forced together into a small space in the station and unable to move.
    :::
    The Guardian has contacted NSW Police for comment about the decision to use pepper spray.

    ————-

    Video: https://twitter.com/_rockrit/status/1269229630650634240

    “it appears NSW police kettled straggling protestors at Central Station”

  22. ‘Pegasus says:
    Sunday, June 7, 2020 at 10:08 am

    The next pandemic is coming – and sooner than we think, thanks to changes to the environment…’

    Thanks Peg for drawing this issue to Bludgers’ attention again. I have previously pointed out that the science on ‘causality’ is pathetically weak. But, that said, all major changes to the environment globally are being driven by increased human population and by increased human population.

    As for the globe, so for Australia. There is not skerrick of doubt that adding more people to Australia will increase pressures on economic and environmental sustainability.

    I therefore urge you to forward your cut and paste to Bandt and tell him that NOW is the time for the Greens to implement their migration and population policy. This is to hold a ‘community debate’. Some would say that that is de facto acceptance of BAU in terms of population which is also laced with numerous astroturfing opportunities. But I am sure that the Australian Greens would not stoop to such sordid cynical political opportunism.

    We don’t want to even risk the chance of another set of pandemics which have been generated by massive human over population.

  25. Oh dear. Is Ms H-Y trying to do some science?

    Elsewhere a mass marine death event (along coasts near Sydney) has been correlated with drought and the fires and the record heat.

    Every rec angler along the NSW south coast knows that prolonged drought affects the rec catch. Some rivers have been killed stone dead, biologically, by toxic inflows following mixes of fire/rain events.

    The same variables affected East Gippsland as affected the marine environment near Sydney.

    It is well known that water temperature has an important impact on fish behaviour and incidentally on catch. When waters heat up the fish move down the water column or, in general, move further south. This effect varies by fishery species.

    So, where are the actual catch figures against fishing effort calibrated for similar figures in previous years for each of the relevant species?

    Where are the water temperature figures for the period in question and for similar periods in previous years?

    Where is the science that disagregates by causal impact, if any, all of the potential known variables?

    But, the Greens don’t do science, do they? What they DO do is astroturf everything. What they DO do is posturing. Time after time, after time.

    BTW, Peg, could you please advise Mr Bandt that nearly all of our major fisheries are fished at or near sustainability. Could you please tell Mr Bandt that twhen it comes to doubling the population while maintaining fisheries sustainability will have major impacts on poor Australians. Maintaining the catch as is will dramatically increase the gap between supply and demand.

    This will, in turn, speed up what is already happening in Australia: popular table fish that used to be affordable for all Australians are now too expensive for poorer Australians. Please tell Mr Bandt that doubling the population will increase social inequality and impact on the human rights of all Australians.

    Then urge Mr Bandt to implement Greens population and migration policies immediately.

  27. Just to give Bludgers an idea of what has happened to three common Australian fresh fish staples:

    Bream fillets are $50 a kg. Flathead fillets $24 a kg. King George Whiting fillets $48 a kg.

    Nearly all Australians used to be able to afford these fish. Now, millions simply cannot afford it.

    I urge you all to remind Mr Bandt that doubling the population will result in millions more Australians being unable to afford a feed of our fish staples.

    I would have thought that the most basic human right of all Australians is to enjoy a feed of fresh fish.

  32. The use of “school halls” as a put down by the Liberals in Rudd’s time shows how advertising sneers twist the truth. In WA in any event, few if any “halls” were built in government primary schools. Mostly, the money was used for extra classrooms and specialist areas such as art. This was a once-in-20-years bonus for many many schools and will stand testimony to Rudd’s quick actions in those days. for years to come…..
    The Tradie Bonus now underway for 37,000 buildings by Morrison is a very pale and weak addition to keeping the industry going, though I suppose the $150000 a year tradie with his $80,000 rig will be pleased to get the hand out.

  33. Tricot says:
    Sunday, June 7, 2020 at 1:08 pm

    I know of one building company and a couple of subcontractors who went broke because of slow payments on the WA school debacle – mostly caused by a refusal to pay on variations.

  34. Bucephalus @ #1134 Sunday, June 7th, 2020 – 11:12 am

    Tricot says:
    Sunday, June 7, 2020 at 1:08 pm

    I know of one building company and a couple of subcontractors who went broke because of slow payments on the WA school debacle – mostly caused by a refusal to pay on variations.

    I’d imagine they had other issues as well.

    Highly unlikely to be just because of this.

  35. I see the rush to get things back to normal in the UK has hit a bit of a bump as far as getting the kids back to school.
    Infections up in the Greater Manchester area and schools will not open just yet…..
    The number of deaths in England, in particular in old folks homes, should be sheeted home to the inept way Boris and his merry men tackled the issue…………..Two week quarantines and face masks now on public transport all seem a admission of too little too late…………………………..Still the 13 or million so of English citizens who voted for the Tories got what they wanted…good luck to them. Bad luck for the third of the electorate which did not vote at all, as well as the 11 million or so who voted Labour and other groups who got stuck with Boris and the boys…………..
    I see those in Scotland are 52-48 now for quitting the United Kingdom……..Goodness only knows what the Irish will do………………..That’s democracy for you……………

  36. SHY and Greens obsessed bludgers are comedic, her site has been there for years.

    Resurrection of tedious boer and Lord Monckton protege of PB as well, with their flat and scorched earth view of zoonotic disease.

  37. B….
    Yes, there were some issues here…..However, tardy payment to contractors has been around for a long time.
    There is no excuse for this whether the money is due from a private company or from the government………………….

  38. Congrats to William on his choice of “Darwinian selection” for this thread. So many shades of meaning.

    Doctors, nurses and disease experts have warned that dousing crowds with teargas and pepper spray will accelerate the spread of coronavirus as mass demonstrations against police brutality rage on, raising concerns that police tactics could worsen a pandemic that has already taken a disproportionate toll on black and brown Americans.
    …
    Public health experts and civil rights advocates have long advocated against the use of teargas, a chemical weapon that can be lethal, especially to the elderly and those with underlying conditions including asthma. Various international treaties and the Geneva Convention have banned its use in international warfare.
    …
    Because coronavirus spreads through droplets of mucus and spit that people launch into the air when they cough, sneeze, breathe and talk, teargas and other irritants that cause people to choke, hack and rip off their face masks will help the virus proliferate, according to Dr Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease physician who helped draft the petition.

    Gas and pepper sprays also cause tears, saliva and mucus to stream from demonstrators’ eyes and noses, said Chin-Hong. “And it’ll cause people to shout and scream, propelling droplets of these fluids – which could be carrying coronavirus – and giving them superpowers, to spread much farther than six feet.”

    Moreover, these chemical agents can irritate the nose, mouth and lungs, causing inflammation that could weaken the body’s ability to resist infection, he said.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/06/teargas-coronavirus-george-floyd-protests

  40. WA ALP Government:

    “Under the $117 million “Building Bonus” scheme, WA homebuyers — both owner-occupiers and investors — who build a new house will be eligible for a $20,000 grant.

    Homebuyers who purchase a property in a single-storey development which is already under construction — such as a townhouse development — may also apply for the grant.

    The scheme will not be means-tested and there will be no property value caps.”

    Everyone hook in and tell us how terrible this scheme is.

    I’ll start – no social housing.

  42. Cormann’s generalisation on the motivation of protesters is appalling.

    “I think it is incredibly selfish, it’s incredibly self-indulgent and it does impose an unnecessary and unacceptable risk on to the community,” Senator Cormann told Sky News.

    Richard Marles hit the right note with his response.

    “I don’t feel like I’m in a position to say to Indigenous Australians, who are protesting against that, that this is a selfish and indulgent act,” he told the ABC’s Insiders program.

    “I felt uncomfortable about the mass gathering but I’m not about to engage in that kind of judgement of those who did it.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-07/cormann-dubs-black-lives-matter-protesters-selfish-coronavirus/12330196

  45. Tricot @ #1128 Sunday, June 7th, 2020 – 1:08 pm

    The use of “school halls” as a put down by the Liberals in Rudd’s time shows how advertising sneers twist the truth. In WA in any event, few if any “halls” were built in government primary schools. Mostly, the money was used for extra classrooms and specialist areas such as art. This was a once-in-20-years bonus for many many schools and will stand testimony to Rudd’s quick actions in those days. for years to come…..
    The Tradie Bonus now underway for 37,000 buildings by Morrison is a very pale and weak addition to keeping the industry going, though I suppose the $150000 a year tradie with his $80,000 rig will be pleased to get the hand out.

    Very few halls were built.
    Mostly science labs and library centres.

    Of course Labor never really tried to disavow the public of the shite coming from Abbott’s goons. And so ‘school halls’ stuck.
    I mean, if you’re not going to say it’s rubbish, it must be true.

  46. Tricot says:
    Sunday, June 7, 2020 at 1:08 pm

    I know of one building company and a couple of subcontractors who went broke because of slow payments on the WA school debacle – mostly caused by a refusal to pay on variations.

    I’d imagine they had other issues as well.

    Highly unlikely to be just because of this.

    As one who has worked on both sides of the ‘variation’ game, both in private and public sectors, if you play that game (on either side) you deserve to go down, but only the little guys ever will.

    The $1000, pink batts, and school halls worked because they got huge amounts of money into the economy quickly, and on the pink batts and school halls side delivered fantastic value that is still being enjoyed. There is a reason this was the best GFC response on the planet, it was well considered, executed lightning fast and was almost perfectly targeted.

    The contrast with the too slow, too little and insanely badly target response of the LNP, which already sees us in a recession, could not be starker, having responded to the last global crisis best in the world, we are on target to get this response in the worst in the world category.

  48. Good news for footy fans, crowds will be allowed back in to stadiums around the country after a stroke of genius from AFL administrators.

    Building on the precedent set by this weekend’s so-called “Black Lives Matter” rallies which were attended by tens of thousands of people Australia wide, all AFL matches have been reclassified as BLM rallies. In one fell swoop the AFL has effectively blacked state authorities from intervening, given there is no moral justification for protesting against racism, because racism is the worst thing ever.

    Hypocrities.

  49. Good news for footy fans, crowds will be allowed back in to stadiums around the country after a stroke of genius from AFL administrators.

    Building on the precedent set by this weekend’s so-called “Black Lives Matter” rallies which were attended by tens of thousands of people Australia wide, all AFL matches have been reclassified as BLM rallies. In one fell swoop the AFL has effectively blacked state authorities from intervening, given there is no moral justification for protesting against racism, because racism is the worst thing ever.

    Hypocrities.

    What an impressive collect of explicitly racist and stupid, do you work for the AFL or Collingwood perhaps?

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