Darwinian selection

Labor moves to save the Northern Territory’s second House of Representatives seat ahead of next month’s determination of state and territory seat entitlements.

The post below this one features Adrian Beaumont’s latest updates on the polling situation in the United States, the United Kingdom and New Zealand. Back on home turf, I have two updates to relate.

The first involves the calculation of the states’ and territories’ House of Representatives seat entitlements for the next parliament, which will be determined next month on the basis of yet-to-be published quarterly population figures from December. Barring a sudden change in population trends in the last quarter of last year, this will cause Victoria to gain a seat for the second term in a row, boosting it to 39 seats — a return to where it was when the parliament was enlarged in 1984, before a lean period for the state reduced it to 37 in 1996. It is even more clear that Western Australia will lose the sixteenth seat it has had for the past two terms, reflecting the waxing and waning of the mining and resources boom.

Relatedly — and to get to my main point — the Northern Territory is also set to lose a seat, unless something comes of Labor Senator Malarndirri McCarthy’s announcement last week that she will introduce a bill to guarantee the territory its existing two seats. The territory just scraped over the line with 1.502 population quotas at the last determination in 2017, rounding up to an entitlement of two seats, and has since experienced a continuation of relative decline since the resource boom halcyon days of 2009 — and even then its population only amounted to 1.54 quotas.

The Northern Territory was first divided into its current two seats of Solomon and Lingiari in 2001, but its claim to a second seat has been consistently precarious. It would have reverted to one seat in 2004 if not for a legislative fix to change definitions in a way that put it over the threshold, which received bipartisan support partly because both major parties imagined at that time that they could win both seats. This proved a forlorn hope in the Coalition’s case, with Lingiari having remained with Labor at all times and Solomon having fallen their way in both 2016 and 2019.

As a result, Solomon and Lingiari have consistently had the lowest enrolments in the country, at a shade below 70,000 at the time of the 2019 federal election, compared with an average of 110,755 in the mainland states, 98,644 in the Australian Capital Territory (which gained a third seat last year) and 77,215 in Tasmania (which maintains the constitutionally mandated minimum of five seats for the six original states). Conversely, a single Northern Territory seat would have an enrolment far greater than any other, with the unfortunate effect of under-representing its indigenous population, which accounts for more than a quarter of the total.

My other update relates to the July 4 Eden-Monaro by-election, for which nominations close on Tuesday. The Daily Telegraph ($) reports four candidates have nominated for the Nationals’ Eden-Monaro preselection, to be held on Sunday: Trevor Hicks, deputy mayor of Queanbeyan-Palerang; Fleur Flanery, owner of Australian Landscape Conference; Mareeta Grundy, a dietician; and Michael Green, a farmer from Nimmitabel. The Greens announced on the weekend that their candidate will be Cathy Griff, a Bega Valley Shire councillor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,310 comments on “Darwinian selection”

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  2. Bucephalus @ #1141 Sunday, June 7th, 2020 – 11:29 am

    WA ALP Government:

    “Under the $117 million “Building Bonus” scheme, WA homebuyers — both owner-occupiers and investors — who build a new house will be eligible for a $20,000 grant.

    Homebuyers who purchase a property in a single-storey development which is already under construction — such as a townhouse development — may also apply for the grant.

    The scheme will not be means-tested and there will be no property value caps.”

    Everyone hook in and tell us how terrible this scheme is.

    I’ll start – no social housing.

    Well it’s simple and clearly defined, which as a stimulus measure is a good thing and this contrasts markedly with the conditional nature of many Federal stimulus measures.

  4. Announced last December as no doubt you knew Buce…….

    “The McGowan Labor Government has announced a new $150 million Housing Investment Package for Western Australians striving for home ownership or a quality home to live in.

    The significant funding package for more social and affordable housing provides additional homes for people on low incomes or at risk of homelessness, while supporting the WA economy and the important housing construction industry.

    The Housing Investment Package will deliver:

    $125 million for more than 300 new public housing units targeting homeless and vulnerable people on the priority waitlist;
    $6 million to refurbish 20 regional and 50 metropolitan public housing properties; and
    $19.2 million for 200 additional shared equity homes, delivered in partnership with Keystart – WA’s low deposit home ownership scheme. “

  5. ‘Quoll says:
    Sunday, June 7, 2020 at 1:22 pm

    SHY and Greens obsessed bludgers are comedic, her site has been there for years.

    Resurrection of tedious boer and Lord Monckton protege of PB as well, with their flat and scorched earth view of zoonotic disease.’

    What is it about even the mere thought of a population/sustainability debate that triggers automatic abuse from some Greens and mass silence from the rest?

    Speaking of population, I trust you enjoying your black bream fillets @ $50 a kg!

  6. I don’t care what S H-Y does in the future as long as she starts bringing some rigour to her policy ruminations and stops with the cynical astroturfing.

    AND as long as she manages to persuade Mr Bandt to commence implementing the Greens policy to commence a community debate on population and migration.

  8. But Barney the rich bastards who were going to build anyway can access this – get with the program. You know it’s bad.

  10. Well, you are the one who raised it, pretending that it was a new measure.

    I think William has you well sussed.

  11. “Do you know any 007 agents you could send to sort out the uber malingerer in NZ ? ”

    Mabye we can invite him to come fruit picking?

  13. Trying to think out side the box, and with a perticular focus on local community projects, would it be possible to set up a scheme through Medicare cards. This could have entrance fees to approved local community events such as sport, arts shows and productions reimbursed through Medicare. No one would then be able to bank the stimulus, small charities and community groups would benefit and those on low income would get to engage in community activities without having to choose between daily essentials and participating in community.

  15. Oakeshott Country @ #1164 Sunday, June 7th, 2020 – 2:38 pm

    Has the media attention to Albo’s private life been mentioned
    Raises a lot of questions about the media and the split between public and private lives
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8395485/Labor-Leader-Anthony-Albanese-finds-love-finance-worker-Jodie-Haynon-16-years-junior.html

    I dare say that Albo would have sanctioned the story simply to stop the more prurient media organsiations turning it in to something undedifying.

  17. WeWantPaul @ #1149 Sunday, June 7th, 2020 – 1:45 pm

    Good news for footy fans, crowds will be allowed back in to stadiums around the country after a stroke of genius from AFL administrators.

    Building on the precedent set by this weekend’s so-called “Black Lives Matter” rallies which were attended by tens of thousands of people Australia wide, all AFL matches have been reclassified as BLM rallies. In one fell swoop the AFL has effectively blacked state authorities from intervening, given there is no moral justification for protesting against racism, because racism is the worst thing ever.

    Hypocrities.

    What an impressive collect of explicitly racist and stupid, do you work for the AFL or Collingwood perhaps?

    It was just a poor attempt at humour. Your reaction is a little over the top , comrade.

  21. Some prate how all-knowing they are about science while leading with their chins. They bought or built in locations that demonstrate that they are actually clueless about climate science and risk.

    Others took global warming science seriously when it came to choosing home locations. They avoided rising sea level threats, eroding beachfronts, flood-prone locations, storm-prone locations and bushfire prone locations. They took changing climate change and changing hydrology seriously when they set up their farming business models.

    But are all the climate stumblebums humbled by the direct consequences of their inability to understand the basics of climate science and by their asinine risk management?

    Not a bit of it. These Karens double up! They are entitled! Their capacity for blame shifting and self pity is boundless. THEY are the victims!

    They whinge endlessly about how bad the rest of us are subsidizing their science-ignorant decisions. Cairns property owners want subsidies for insurance premiums they can no longer afford. Inland flood prone towns want subsidies for building their levees. Beach front owners insist that others pay for sea walls to stop their houses falling into the sea. Owners of fire prone home want others to subsidize repair or rebuilding of fire-damaged bridges and roading. You should hear them whinging about their burned out comms. Some of these doozies expect subsidies for rebuilding their fences, infrastructure, rebuilding their houses and rebuilding their businesses! Irrigators who did not manage their climate risk want free water from the Government!

  22. So, from a land management/agriculture point of view, just compare Neal Spackman to, say, Barnaby Joyce… ?

  23. It was just a poor attempt at humour. Your reaction is a little over the top , comrade.

    Yeah casual racism is definitely something we should be making jokes about. No wait only racists would do that, I’m sick of Australia where calling an obvious racist is worse than being the actual piece of sh1t racist itself.

  24. Saw a few black American protesters interviewed. They said they know why a lot of things can’t be implemented. Appears the Corporate sector is operating via tax havens and the money is not going round and round. Tax minimisation and all profits via dividends to the rich. Capitalism no longer working for 33% of the population.

  25. Saw a few black American protesters interviewed. They said they know why a lot of things can’t be implemented. Appears the Corporate sector is operating via tax havens and the money is not going round and round. Tax minimisation and all profits via dividends to the rich. Capitalism no longer working for 33% of the population.

    It hasn’t been working for about 70% for some time, but a few glass beads in the form of big screen TVs and the upper middle class are easy to fool.

  26. WeWantPaul @ #1013 Sunday, June 7th, 2020 – 3:23 pm

    It was just a poor attempt at humour. Your reaction is a little over the top , comrade.

    Yeah casual racism is definitely something we should be making jokes about. No wait only racists would do that, I’m sick of Australia where calling an obvious racist is worse than being the actual piece of sh1t racist itself.

    Don’t let the fly wire screen hit you on the arse on the way out.

  27. For the PB conspiracy theory brigade.

    Did you know,……………

    Did you know that Obama passed a bill requiring every tire be equipped with a GPS chip, so that you could be located in 5G networks? Trump hasn’t reversed this yet.

    If you don’t want to be followed, you have to cut off the little antenna that sticks out.

  28. Michael Moore a long time ago said Bill Bubba Clinton was the best president the Repugs ever had. At the time I scratched my head at that claim. But by fuck since then I have come to realise it is true.Be it in his welfare,economic,prison,law (cough cough) reforms or whatever. Today I was listening to RN and by golly Bubba Bill Clinton had another epic RW “reform’ I did not know about. Yankee police being given military weapons ? Come on down Bill Bubba Clinton for enacting that pile of shit.

  29. Some comments on the Al baydha permaculture project.

    Romantic? Sure. Inspiring? Sure.

    But, but, but…

    1. Permaculture ‘works’ by re-arranging hydrology in part of a larger catchment. It nearly always aims to channel the hydrology to preferred outcomes. These generally include including on-site biomass for pastoral or agriculture and may also include infiltration beyond the root zone in order to generate underground water storage.
    One of the desired outcomes is almost always less soil loss from the permaculture site. Which, in the broad, means both more modulated run off and less run off in total. The inevitable consequence of nearly all permaculture demonstrations of which I am aware is reducing stream inflows.
    So, to varied extents, permaculture is designed to rob peter in order to pay paul.

    If we applied the al baydha principles and practices to the entire Murray Darling Basin, the Murray would stop flowing into the sea.

    Specific comments:

    1. Over the 10 years there has been no return at all from the al bayadha land or from the investment. There was no grazing at all.
    2. The works, materials and labour costs for the 10 years was paid for by somebody else.
    3. The scale of the capital required for, say, the increase in dse (dry sheep equivalent) carrying capacity is totally out of whack. Looking at the plot and thinking about sustainable grazing, you might be able to carry maybe a single dse per ten acres over several rainfall cycles. The annual return on ten sheep after all running costs are included might be, say, $100 per head.
    4. The amount of soil formation across the entire al baydha project area would probably amount to a couple of kg per annum. If that. The rate of soil loss AFTER the permaculture is put in – across the project area would be truckloads per annum and almost certainly much more. The rate of soil loss would be directly related to the human use of pastoralism. The rate of soil loss would be greater than the rate of soil formation, regardless. With ANY human use, the rate of soil loss over the rate of soil formation would be greater.
    5. I note that soil loss due to wind erosion was not mentioned as a significant variable.
    6. The CO2 sequestration gains in this project (which Spackman provides as a part justification) were almost certainly much, much less than the CO2 emitted during the project establishment.

    This, incidentally, directly contradicts the core test of Spackman.

  32. Peter van Onselen@vanOnselenP
    ·
    2h
    So black lives matter protesters are “selfish” and “reckless” according to the finance minister but as the PM said, when 5G protesters do their thing “it’s a free country” Double standards much…. For the record, I am a COVID conservative and hence concerned about BOTH…

    Good point about Scotty’s double standards. But ‘COVID conservative’ is a new term I haven’t heard before.

  33. Confessions @ #1178 Sunday, June 7th, 2020 – 4:11 pm

    Peter van Onselen@vanOnselenP
    ·
    2h
    So black lives matter protesters are “selfish” and “reckless” according to the finance minister but as the PM said, when 5G protesters do their thing “it’s a free country” Double standards much…. For the record, I am a COVID conservative and hence concerned about BOTH…

    Good point about Scotty’s double standards. But ‘COVID conservative’ is a new term I haven’t heard before.

    ‘For the record, I am a conservative’

    Mundo fixed it for him.

  34. Thanks for the tip GG, but were you fair dinkum about that? All that happened was I got a flat tyre. Was there supposed to be some kind of sequence I should’ve followed?

  37. Should I just go back out there and think that tyre up? Please reply ASAP, as it’s starting to rain. Maybe I can think it up from inside?

  38. Don’t let the fly wire screen hit you on the arse on the way out.

    It is a careful juggling act, but I can manage it without being a vile racist or vile racist apologist.

  40. This took a lot of careful thought!!

    John Barilaro MP
    @JohnBarilaroMP
    · 4h
    Excited to share that the 1st Braidwood Scouts will soon have a new, larger storage shed, fully renovated kitchen & energy efficient lighting thanks to the NSW Government’s Community Building Partnership program.

    …

    Ron Baumann
    @DrRonBaumann
    ·
    4h
    Replying to
    @JohnBarilaroMP
    Can those bushfire victims still living in their cars and in tents come sleep in Braidwood Scout new shed and cook in its fully renovated kitchen?

  41. Katharine Murphy
    @murpharoo
    ·
    3h
    Linda Burney on Cormann:
    It is the responsibility of elected leaders and people with a voice in the community to respond to what is going on around the world. It is not something that we can ignore and Mr Cormann would do himself a favour if he would also listen to those cries.

  42. boerwar
    says:
    Sunday, June 7, 2020 at 3:58 pm
    Some comments on the Al baydha permaculture project.’
    ________________________
    You might be right in some respects but I have serious reservations about your figures and the general information you post. Just with your assertions that the Battle of Manila and the Japanese occupation of Burma cost 2 million lives is actually off by about 1-4-1.7 million. Not a small error. So I will take your assertions about soil, runoff etc with the grain of salt you have earned.

  43. For a nanosecond my heart rose. It genuinely did.
    When Corman started with, ‘My heart goes out to…’ I really thought that he was going to add, ‘…to the families and friends of the hundreds of Indigenous people killed while in custody.’

    But, no.

    Cormann, like Morrison, was seeking to deny Australian racism, deny the white stain on Australia’s justice system and, indeed, was seeking to provoke resentment against Indigenous Australians for being uppity enough to do something about it.

    The irony that in doing so they might have been increasing the risk factor for non-Indigenous Australians was almost too much for Cormann to contemplate!

    First the Chinese and now Indigenous Australians. Blowback from racism! How dare the yellows and blacks imperil the whites!

    The Government is not only the most financially corrupt since Federation, it is also the most morally corrupt.

  44. With Donald Trump and Sarah Cooper. How do you go down two and a half times? It is either 2 or 3, it can’t be 2.5. Or did he start to go down then half way down decided not to. It is just pure dribble.

  45. Kirky @ #1193 Sunday, June 7th, 2020 – 4:32 pm

    With Donald Trump and Sarah Cooper. How do you go down two and a half times.? It is either 2 or 3, it can’t be 2.5. Or did he start to go down then half way down decided not to. It is just pure dribble.

    Exactly what I thought. 2 & 1/2 times!?! Had they not turned on the lights and he was afraid of the dark the 3rd time, so he turned around and came back?

  48. boerwar
    says:
    The inevitable consequence of nearly all permaculture demonstrations of which I am aware is reducing stream inflows.
    ____________________
    In the case of Al Badya there are no steam inflows. There are flash floods that take all the run off quickly to the Red Sea with no recharging. So the choice is either that, or retaining the water in the land. Of course it ultimately robs the sea of fresh water floods.

  49. That Labor chappie was good on Insiders this morning.
    Speers did not want to let him talk about the hypocrisy of the Morrison Government which simultaneously calls for a science and innovation-led economic rescue job and cuts funding for science, tertiary research and innovation.
    Having pointed that out, despite repeated attempts by Speers to stop him, the Labor chappie then went on to point out the broad strategic directions Labor would follow.
    The Labor Chappie was also clever enough not to badmouth the Trump dolt.
    The Labor Chappie deftly handled the gotchas on the Black Lives Matter protests.
    Finally, the Labor Chappie was clever to leave the road more or less clear for Morrison and Frydenberg to hang themselves with RenoRorts.
    Speers, zip. Labor chappie 1.
    Well done, IMO.

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