The post below this one features Adrian Beaumont’s latest updates on the polling situation in the United States, the United Kingdom and New Zealand. Back on home turf, I have two updates to relate.
The first involves the calculation of the states’ and territories’ House of Representatives seat entitlements for the next parliament, which will be determined next month on the basis of yet-to-be published quarterly population figures from December. Barring a sudden change in population trends in the last quarter of last year, this will cause Victoria to gain a seat for the second term in a row, boosting it to 39 seats — a return to where it was when the parliament was enlarged in 1984, before a lean period for the state reduced it to 37 in 1996. It is even more clear that Western Australia will lose the sixteenth seat it has had for the past two terms, reflecting the waxing and waning of the mining and resources boom.
Relatedly — and to get to my main point — the Northern Territory is also set to lose a seat, unless something comes of Labor Senator Malarndirri McCarthy’s announcement last week that she will introduce a bill to guarantee the territory its existing two seats. The territory just scraped over the line with 1.502 population quotas at the last determination in 2017, rounding up to an entitlement of two seats, and has since experienced a continuation of relative decline since the resource boom halcyon days of 2009 — and even then its population only amounted to 1.54 quotas.
The Northern Territory was first divided into its current two seats of Solomon and Lingiari in 2001, but its claim to a second seat has been consistently precarious. It would have reverted to one seat in 2004 if not for a legislative fix to change definitions in a way that put it over the threshold, which received bipartisan support partly because both major parties imagined at that time that they could win both seats. This proved a forlorn hope in the Coalition’s case, with Lingiari having remained with Labor at all times and Solomon having fallen their way in both 2016 and 2019.
As a result, Solomon and Lingiari have consistently had the lowest enrolments in the country, at a shade below 70,000 at the time of the 2019 federal election, compared with an average of 110,755 in the mainland states, 98,644 in the Australian Capital Territory (which gained a third seat last year) and 77,215 in Tasmania (which maintains the constitutionally mandated minimum of five seats for the six original states). Conversely, a single Northern Territory seat would have an enrolment far greater than any other, with the unfortunate effect of under-representing its indigenous population, which accounts for more than a quarter of the total.
My other update relates to the July 4 Eden-Monaro by-election, for which nominations close on Tuesday. The Daily Telegraph ($) reports four candidates have nominated for the Nationals’ Eden-Monaro preselection, to be held on Sunday: Trevor Hicks, deputy mayor of Queanbeyan-Palerang; Fleur Flanery, owner of Australian Landscape Conference; Mareeta Grundy, a dietician; and Michael Green, a farmer from Nimmitabel. The Greens announced on the weekend that their candidate will be Cathy Griff, a Bega Valley Shire councillor.
I’ve been thinking (always dangerous!).
Aussies are famous for their eagerness to travel o/s for holidays and to visit their “ancestral lands”.
Doesn’t this broaden their vision of other cultures?
Or do they just go for the tropical holidays?
(Unfair to some, I know.)
nath
You routinely post vicious personal posts directed at me. Now you want to engage in a rational discussion.
If you do a blanket apology I might be inclined to join in a reasonable discussion about topics of shared interest.
Otherwise, the old scroll wheel is my trusty friend.
How many Australians have ancestors in Bali?
nath @ #1199 Sunday, June 7th, 2020 – 4:39 pm
It’s just returning Al Badya to the state it was previously in before the land was cleared.
boerwar
says:
Sunday, June 7, 2020 at 4:42 pm
nath
You routinely post vicious personal posts directed at me. Now you want to engage in a rational discussion.
_____________
You are the one who posted a lengthy response to a post of mine and presumably also watched the video. If you were so offended by my ‘personal attacks’ then why do that?
Stan Grant was praising our democracy as above the average.
In any case these ‘personal attacks’ were not that bad I’m certain. And certainly less annoying than your constant repetitiveness.
boerwar @ #1202 Sunday, June 7th, 2020 – 4:42 pm
He’s scum and doesn’t deserve your good hearted olive branch.
Fuckwits are always going to be fuckwits.
lizzie: “I’ve been thinking (always dangerous!).
Aussies are famous for their eagerness to travel o/s for holidays and to visit their “ancestral lands”.
Doesn’t this broaden their vision of other cultures?
Or do they just go for the tropical holidays?
(Unfair to some, I know.)”
When I first went to Thailand, more than 30 years ago, I encountered a large group of middle-aged white Australian males with beer guts who were clearly in Thailand for a purpose that was none of the above.
It made me fell quite ill and I still have nightmares about it occasionally. I understand that the place has been cleaned up a lot now, thank god.
FWIW, given that nath has a problem with my numbers while routinely missing the central points, the al bayadha average annual rainfall is 60mm. It is, like it is in most arid lands, highly episodic.
That essentially means that the sustainable stocking rate, using standard dse calculations, for MOST years in al baydha would actually be zero. In other words, the economic benefit of the al baydha project is not even marginal. It is a straight loss. Anyhoo, the ‘right’ stocking rate would mimic the standard Australian arid species’ responses to rainfall events and period of dessication: boom and bust.
Even in the absence of any pastoralism at all, the rate of soil formation across around a third of Australia is less than the rate of soil loss. It is why most of Australia looks ’empty’. Across that third, wind erosion is the chief driver for this imbalance.
I am sure that Mr Bandt will raise this as a consideration when he finally triggers the long-awaited Greens community debate on population and migration.
https://www.publish.csiro.au/rj/pdf/RJ07001
BB Should I just go back out there and think that tyre up? Please reply ASAP, as it’s starting to rain. Maybe I can think it up from inside?
We’ll send our thoughts and prayers…
meher baba @ #1209 Sunday, June 7th, 2020 – 4:52 pm
They went to Gallipoli and Europe in their earlier incarnations.
BW: re your earlier carry on about rising fish prices today, my understanding is that increased globalisation of seafood markets and not local demand is the main cause. So local population growth isn’t really that much of a factor.
The fish and other seafood prices came down quite wonderfully in Tassie during March and April. Crayfish became quite affordable again for the first time in a long while.
Alas, the prices have risen again recently, due to transport links to China being reopened. However, rumour has it that the Chinese are about to impose trade bans on our seafood. I have friends who work in the sector, so I shouldn’t say I want it to happen: but there’d certainly be some beneficial side effects AFAIAC.
lizzie
Stan Grant is another Australian who has gone up in my estimation these last few months.
The other day on the Drum he was speaking as an Indigenous parent. He said that he felt he had to prepare his kids for being policed. He knew of no non-Indigenous parents who had to prepare their children for interactions with the police.
Sure enough Stan’s kids have been policed.
It is a huge life-long strain that every aspect of your life is formed within the prism of racism. Like Burney, Grant addressed these issues with dignity and reason. They are Australian leaders working against the destructive bastardry of Hanson, Cormann and Morrison.
Well done, Burney and Grant!
GG: “They went to Gallipoli and Europe in their earlier incarnations.”
I also met those in Europe. But the middle-aged guys that go to Thailand in groups are especially nauseating. Just imagine being one of the beautiful young ladies who has to provide them with customer service, so to speak. I never felt more ashamed to be an Australian.
I need to stop thinking about it.
boerwar
says:
That essentially means that the sustainable stocking rate, using standard dse calculations, for MOST years in al baydha would actually be zero. In other words, the economic benefit of the al baydha project is not even marginal. It is a straight loss.
_________________________
You are looking at the project as a pure economic win/loss. Since when have the Saudi Government been interested in pastroralism?
This project is about improving the lives of former Bedouin by improving their environment, helping them produce some fruits and sustainable foods from their lands. It seems a test case for other Bedouin groups to improve their situation rather than an opportunity to create a sheep run. They may be able to have a few goats, but that would be marginal. Who knows how the site will develop in more years.
I’m just not gonna piss all over it with negativity just yet.
mb
I could engage with you about the complexity of sea food commodities but I doubt that the effort is worth it.
My main point stands. Increasing human populations have to share static seafood commodities.
Scarcity drives up prices. (Actually not static. Declining globally because of over harvesting.)
The favorite targets of Greens’ astroturfing suffer because they can no longer afford seafood.
The Greens simply ignore the main driver here: human population increases.
The Greens are cynically playing Australia’s poor people for political mugs.
Scroll wheel keeps on turning…
here’s a pretty good bake!
https://twitter.com/i/status/1269308901528403969
boerwar @ #1218 Sunday, June 7th, 2020 – 5:03 pm
Proud Boer keeps on posting……
By far the majority of sex worker customers in Thailand are Thai males.
By far and away the majority of sex worker customers in India are Indian males.
And so on and so forth around the globe.
GG
It must be hard for some in Australia to appreciate the fact that the US military is one of main bulwarks, if not THE bulwark, against Trump’s inclinations to dictatorship.
GG. What did William call you not long ago? An abject disgrace? I think that’s pretty spot on for a creature such as yourself.
I couldn’t resist posting this.
nath @ #1223 Sunday, June 7th, 2020 – 5:07 pm
And I said,”I hope so”.
You are a nothing person doing nothing of interest to any one.
Enjoy your unimportance in life.
Sadly, conservative capitalist thinking puts the handbrake on any effort to return man-made arid landscapes to their former living eco-systems.
boerwar @ #1222 Sunday, June 7th, 2020 – 5:06 pm
https://twitter.com/i/status/1269308901528403969
Test.
#WeathononPB. Raining and 12° in Sydney.
boerwar
Wot a shame “The Generals” were so keen on policies that created POTUS Trump. Yaay the neocons and their forever war eh ?
What is the constitutional situation if Trump mobilised the military, and they refused to comply.
“Australia’s finance minister Mathias Cormann has condemned Saturday’s mass protests to demand an end to Indigenous deaths in custody as reckless, selfish and self-indulgent.”
Gee Dunno..
What could be more “reckless, selfish and self-indulgent.” than 2000+ suicides from the “PeopleKiller” (TM) Robodebt.
STFU Cormann your humanity’s showing.
BW: “Stan Grant is another Australian who has gone up in my estimation these last few months. The other day on the Drum he was speaking as an Indigenous parent. He said that he felt he had to prepare his kids for being policed. He knew of no non-Indigenous parents who had to prepare their children for interactions with the police.Sure enough Stan’s kids have been policed. It is a huge life-long strain that every aspect of your life is formed within the prism of racism.”
But aren’t there complex questions beneath all this?
From what you’ve said about your life, I assume you’ve spent a bit of time in rural and remote Australia. Anybody from that part of the world – even most Aborigines – will tell you that the young Aboriginal men and even kids are, on average, more likely to get up to mischief than other young men and kids. And they would also say that’s it’s not the case with all Aboriginal young men and kids: there are particular well-known families which produce most of the troublemakers. And some of these families are white, but the majority aren’t.
Now, are you suggesting that what I’ve just said isn’t the case, and that Aboriginal people in country towns are no more likely than whites to commit crimes like shoplifting and break and enter and drug dealing? Maybe you are, in which case I’d be interested to hear what you have to say about that.
But, if you would agree with the prevailing view that they are more likely to commit these crimes, then can it be completely unjustified for police in these towns to engage in a bit of racial profiling? What’s the alternative: to over-police whites in order to seem less discriminatory? That would seem to me to be a serious waste of resources.
I’m not trying to make a point here. These are not rhetorical questions: I’m genuinely interested in what you have to say, given my impression that you’ve spent a fair bit of time working with Indigenous people.
lizzie @ #1206 Sunday, June 7th, 2020 – 4:48 pm
This is only true because Trump has so dramatically lowered the average 🙁
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1229 Sunday, June 7th, 2020 – 5:18 pm
Huge embarrassment for Trump.
However, it looks like Betsy De Vos’ brother, Erik Prince, CEO of Mercenary Army, Blackwater Inc., would be prepared to step into the breach on Trump’s behalf. In fact, Trump has started selling camo baseball caps with ‘Proud Member of Trump’s Army’ emblazoned on them. So, basically, I think Trump has a Plan B.
BW: “By far the majority of sex worker customers in Thailand are Thai males.
By far and away the majority of sex worker customers in India are Indian males.
And so on and so forth around the globe.”
And that makes it ok for fugly white Australian males to travel to those countries and take advantage of prostitution?
I really can’t see that. But I must confess that, at heart, I am a bit of a prude.
OH has the Ch 7 news on.
NSW threatening legislation to ban all rallies during covid-19 and Cormann ranting about the irresponsible behaviour of participants, with the government threatening to tell the national cabinet to not loosen restrictions (and blame the rally participants).
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-07/act-records-first-new-coronavirus-case-in-more-than-a-month/12330612
Ummm.. how can someone who has been in quarantine since he arrived have a “small number of close contacts” ?
mb
It makes your selective revulsion selective revulsion. Nothing more. Nothing less.
CC: “Ummm.. how can someone who has been in quarantine since he arrived have a “small number of close contacts” ?”
I was wondering about that too.
poroti
I suspect we may have divergent views on this but that the divergence might be where we put the balance in the ‘on balance’ thing.
The guy linked by GG is, in my view, one of the people in the US who actually gets it that US democracy faces an existential crisis.
Whatever his (and their) past failings have been or might have been, cometh the hour, cometh the men.
boerwar: “It makes your selective revulsion selective revulsion. Nothing more. Nothing less.”
But isn’t there an element of racism in white people taking sexual advantage of people living in third world countries?
Cud Chewer @ #1237 Sunday, June 7th, 2020 – 3:26 pm
They could have been allowed to quarantine at home, also the possibility that they are diplomatic staff at an Embassy.
Who knows????? 🙂
Queen’s Birthday honours for the non-politicians managing bushfire and covid responses?
Police investigate alleged assault of Aboriginal girl, 4, wrongly accused of stealing from Big W
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-07/police-investigate-big-w-alleged-assault-aboriginal-girl/12329154
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-07/covidsafe-app-black-lives-matter-protest-coronavirus-australia/12330802
Barney yes there must be something interesting about this particular case.
I doubt any average person would be allowed to quarantine at home.
Black Lives Matter protesters have unwittingly recorded the single largest outbreak of police brutality in US history
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-07/police-brutality-caught-on-film-black-lives-matter/12330672
Been to Bali twice. Hated the first time. Thought I should give it a chance. Hated the second time.
My visits to the UK and France were like a balm to the soul. Magnificent is the only way I can describe them.
Favourite holiday destination outside Rottnest is Singapore.