Darwinian selection

Labor moves to save the Northern Territory’s second House of Representatives seat ahead of next month’s determination of state and territory seat entitlements.

The post below this one features Adrian Beaumont’s latest updates on the polling situation in the United States, the United Kingdom and New Zealand. Back on home turf, I have two updates to relate.

The first involves the calculation of the states’ and territories’ House of Representatives seat entitlements for the next parliament, which will be determined next month on the basis of yet-to-be published quarterly population figures from December. Barring a sudden change in population trends in the last quarter of last year, this will cause Victoria to gain a seat for the second term in a row, boosting it to 39 seats — a return to where it was when the parliament was enlarged in 1984, before a lean period for the state reduced it to 37 in 1996. It is even more clear that Western Australia will lose the sixteenth seat it has had for the past two terms, reflecting the waxing and waning of the mining and resources boom.

Relatedly — and to get to my main point — the Northern Territory is also set to lose a seat, unless something comes of Labor Senator Malarndirri McCarthy’s announcement last week that she will introduce a bill to guarantee the territory its existing two seats. The territory just scraped over the line with 1.502 population quotas at the last determination in 2017, rounding up to an entitlement of two seats, and has since experienced a continuation of relative decline since the resource boom halcyon days of 2009 — and even then its population only amounted to 1.54 quotas.

The Northern Territory was first divided into its current two seats of Solomon and Lingiari in 2001, but its claim to a second seat has been consistently precarious. It would have reverted to one seat in 2004 if not for a legislative fix to change definitions in a way that put it over the threshold, which received bipartisan support partly because both major parties imagined at that time that they could win both seats. This proved a forlorn hope in the Coalition’s case, with Lingiari having remained with Labor at all times and Solomon having fallen their way in both 2016 and 2019.

As a result, Solomon and Lingiari have consistently had the lowest enrolments in the country, at a shade below 70,000 at the time of the 2019 federal election, compared with an average of 110,755 in the mainland states, 98,644 in the Australian Capital Territory (which gained a third seat last year) and 77,215 in Tasmania (which maintains the constitutionally mandated minimum of five seats for the six original states). Conversely, a single Northern Territory seat would have an enrolment far greater than any other, with the unfortunate effect of under-representing its indigenous population, which accounts for more than a quarter of the total.

My other update relates to the July 4 Eden-Monaro by-election, for which nominations close on Tuesday. The Daily Telegraph ($) reports four candidates have nominated for the Nationals’ Eden-Monaro preselection, to be held on Sunday: Trevor Hicks, deputy mayor of Queanbeyan-Palerang; Fleur Flanery, owner of Australian Landscape Conference; Mareeta Grundy, a dietician; and Michael Green, a farmer from Nimmitabel. The Greens announced on the weekend that their candidate will be Cathy Griff, a Bega Valley Shire councillor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,310 comments on “Darwinian selection”

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  1. peggy,

    You are talking shit again.

    Read the last three words.

    A stand-out feature of the protests in the United States has been the amount of police brutality caught on film.

  2. meher baba @ #1241 Sunday, June 7th, 2020 – 3:30 pm

    boerwar: “It makes your selective revulsion selective revulsion. Nothing more. Nothing less.”

    But isn’t there an element of racism in white people taking sexual advantage of people living in third world countries?

    I’ve had some interaction, I try to avoid them, with these travellers and they’re a mixed bag.

    Some are sad, lonely men looking for companionship, others are completely odious specimens with no respect for others, especially the girls.

    As for the girls, the vast majority that I have spoken with are from the poorer rural areas, who are able to set themselves up with house back home after working 5 – 10 years, something they would never have achieved otherwise.

    It is indeed part of their culture, but I think that’s more a reflection of paternalism and that there are relatively few opportunities for women, than anything else.

  3. GG

    What a civil individual you are. Suffering another bout of distemper, or is it a permanent condition. I don’t know what you are ranting about nor do I care. I do understand your need to lash out and why you pick me as a target.

    Be a good puppy and fetch a bone.

  4. Pegasus @ #1252 Sunday, June 7th, 2020 – 6:00 pm

    GG

    What a civil individual you are. Suffering another bout of distemper, or is it a permanent condition. I don’t know what you are ranting about nor do I care. I do understand your need to lash out and why you pick me as a target.

    Be a good puppy and fetch a bone.

    Fucked up your meme again, didn’t you?

  5. Need growth? Scrap policies that favour rich people and monopolies

    Breaking self-perpetuating cycles of rising inequality will be key to Australia’s economic recovery

    https://insidestory.org.au/need-growth-scrap-policies-that-favour-rich-people-and-monopolies/

    Past epidemics have one thing in common: they made inequality worse. There’s no reason to think Covid-19 will be any different. The Australian economy can’t afford to snap back to old habits.

  6. Peg

    ‘Past epidemics have one thing in common: they made inequality worse.’

    Not necessarily, and not historically accurate, IMO. In England the population losses occasioned by the the Plague created large rural labour shortages and fundamentally altered the financial relationships between master and man, to the latter’s financial advantage.

    I suggest you urge Mr Bandt to put this into the mix when he implements the Greens population policy.

  7. Dr Kevin Bonham’s latest – Unpopular State Premiers Still Have Dire Historic Fates

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2020/06/unpopular-state-premiers-still-have.html

    The Premier in the danger zone – with several qualifiers – is Queensland’s Annastacia Palaszczuk, who faces a state election at the end of October. Palaszczuk polled a net rating of -15 early this year, following a -11 in August. Since then, her rating has been boosted by COVID-19, but modestly compared to state and federal counterparts, suggesting (albeit on limited evidence from a single pollster) that at least a third of voters have made up their minds against her no matter what. Her worst rating is at the lower end of the danger zone and I have had to resort to using a rating from YouGov because no state Newspolls of voting intention have occurred since the last state election in the mainland states (and since the election before last for Tasmania).

  8. Pegasus @ #1259 Sunday, June 7th, 2020 – 6:23 pm

    Dr Kevin Bonham’s latest – Unpopular State Premiers Still Have Dire Historic Fates

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2020/06/unpopular-state-premiers-still-have.html

    The Premier in the danger zone – with several qualifiers – is Queensland’s Annastacia Palaszczuk, who faces a state election at the end of October. Palaszczuk polled a net rating of -15 early this year, following a -11 in August. Since then, her rating has been boosted by COVID-19, but modestly compared to state and federal counterparts, suggesting (albeit on limited evidence from a single pollster) that at least a third of voters have made up their minds against her no matter what. Her worst rating is at the lower end of the danger zone and I have had to resort to using a rating from YouGov because no state Newspolls of voting intention have occurred since the last state election in the mainland states (and since the election before last for Tasmania).

    Anna is very popular accoring to the polls!

    So, she’s sweet!

  9. After spending the day so far dealing with a bit of low-level flooding and a car that wouldn’t start, I’m back on deck now, so higher standards will be enforced henceforth.

  10. 10 years on Pollbludger and still wildly crazy, take a bow , boerwar:
    __________________________________________
    Boerwar says:
    Monday, August 23, 2010 at 5:34 pm
    I am getting a bit sick of the silly sniping at Bill Shorten.

    Shorten did an excellent job for the disabled and this is widely recognised. He showed he understands how to work policy processes, work with the community and get things done. In fact, he was one of the outtanding performers in the Rudd/Gillard Governments.

    Richo said the other day that only two out of the entire Ministery were willing to support Rudd. In other words, those who had to work closely with him did not want to do so any more. So, time to move on and get a life.

    It would be a gross waste of talent to leave Shorten twiddling his thumbs for three years.

    It is not surprising that he is at shorter odds than Gillard for next leader of the Labor Party, even if I do hope that Gillard sticks around for another three years, if in Opposition.

  11. Looks like a concerted campaign to blame others if something goes wrong – let’s forget about the Ruby Princess and other government blunders.

    Berejiklian et al, then Cormann and now Greg “I’m blaming you more in sorrow than in anger” Hunt.

    Federal Health Minister Greg Hunt hopes the Black Lives Matter rallies across the country that clearly broke COVID-19 social distancing rules will not lead to a new wave of infections.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6784045/health-fears-grow-after-huge-support-for-black-lives-matter-protests/?cs=14231&utm_source=website&utm_medium=home&utm_campaign=latestnews#gsc.tab=0

  12. In June most of the Democrats of the last 30 years where going to be President, sadly only Clinton and Obama made it.

    Biden has what looks like a +5 lead in the battleground states at what has to be seen as an absolute low ebb for Trump. Hard to see that holding up when the Republican attack machine gets going…

  13. “In any case these ‘personal attacks’ were not that bad I’m certain. And certainly less annoying than your constant repetitiveness”

    Unlikely to be any worse than BW’s attacks against rex and pegasus over the last year or so. Hypocrisy alert!

  14. In the upcoming Qld election, Labor should be hammering the questions:

    – What will the LNP cut? Health, education, roads, public transport, community services… ? Do you want austerity?
    – What will they privatise? What will they sell off to mates?

    Cuts and privatisations. It’s what the LNP does. Maybe a reminder of the Campbell Newman years won’t go astray.

  15. According to Gallup’s polling, detailed here, Bill Clinton was running third behind Ross Perot in June 1992, and George W. Bush had a handy margin over Al Gore in June 2000. Only in 1996 and 2004 did they record clear movement in favour of the Republicans between June and November.

  16. Michael Dukakis was more than 30 years ago. Gallup didn’t record any change in Clinton’s lead between June and November, although the FiveThirtyEight model, which is obviously to be preferred, had it narrowing by 2.4%.

  17. ABC TV News right now running the government/Cormann line that, despite their bragging about “beating the virus”, imploring punters to travel on trains they know will end up being crowded, giving into AFL and NRL “leaders” by allowing fans to attend footy games, pubs, clubs, restaurants and pokie palaces, and the marches being declared perfectly legal, if there is a surge it will be SOLELY blamed on the B-L-M demos, and nothing to do with the various governments, desperate to end virus stimulus measures, so they can make vainglorious boasts about “stable economic management”.

    I can understand the anxiety by those who rule over us, and I’m not sure I would have attended a local rally myself (if there was one), being in a vulnerable age demographic. But what’s good for the goose is sure looking sweet for the gander on this one.

    There’s a lot of right-wing and medico-fascist handwringing about the protestors being “selfish”, and their Big Day Out yesterday being unfair to those who couldn’t attend a loved one’s funeral. Not a bad point, but it assumes that demonstrations are something that’s an indulgence, a lark, not something as essential to a working democracy as election day.

    Black lives DO matter, and if we’re going to get back into the society and democracy groove, now – when our leaders are claiming success – is as good a time as any to test that theory.

  18. The jackals are yipyapping and the hyenas are howling.

    The single most interesting thing about soil sustainability has not been mentioned. It bears directly on other elements of sustainability, such as the sustainability of biodiversity. After all, most biodiversity lives in the soil and most of it is too small to see with the human eye.

    The interesting thing? Farming out of a bag. This has effectively decoupled the fate of human populations from soil for the first time in history. Australia produces three times more food than it needs to feed its population because of this decoupling.

    The follow on question is this: is farming out of a bag (in all its forms) itself sustainable?

  19. BB
    Yep.

    Cormann’s heart went out to the families who had lost people due to Covid.

    Cormann’s heart has never gone out to the families of the 400+ Indigenous people who have died in custody including very many under Cormann’s Watch in successive Coalition governments.

    The poverty nexus with white justice has been made worse by hundreds of millions of Indigenous program funding cut by Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments. People have died because of unpaid fines when Cormann’s mates were picking up $50,000 gold watches for free.

    And, as you note, the political scapegoats for the Second Wave have now been politically established.

    The most corrupt government since Federation is nothing if not thorough.

  20. Melbourne Black Lives Matter protest organisers to be fined for breaching coronavirus restrictions

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-06/melbourne-black-lives-matter-protest-organisers-fined-by-police/12329514

    “The chief executive of the Victorian Aboriginal Legal Service (VALS), Nerita Waight, said people should not be punished for exercising their right to free speech and assembly.

    Ms Waight is not representing the WAR organisers but said they had done everything they could to warn protesters to take precautions against COVID-19.

    “Addressing systemic racism in this country is legitimate and necessary,” Ms Waight said.

    “Fining people is not the answer, because all that results in is the further criminalisation … of Aboriginal people.”
    :::
    Victorians have been fined at a much higher rate than in any other state during the pandemic, with more than $8 million in fine revenue collected.”

  21. BB its interesting that there hasn’t been any more media on public transport lately, despite clear signs that patronage on public transport is still growing (currenty around 30% in Sydney). That’s right on the edge of what can loosely called “covid safe”.

    Its also interesting that there’s been a lot of talk about the effect of a mass rally. The problem here is that whilst its a large number of people close to each other, there’s actually a lot more people close to each other in other places – shopping centers, trains etc. There is a chance that somone infected showed up at the march and there’s a chance that will create some infections. But there’s a bigger chance of an infection happening elsewhere on the same day.

    Also what didn’t get mentioned in the media was that the main risk from the march was the train trip afterwards. Were there crowd controllers and marshalls loading people up in a “covid safe” manner?

    One good sign was the popularity of masks at the march. This will help to normalise their use. Its a shame our CMOs (plural) haven’t gotten the message and gotten on TV to urge people to wear them.

  22. Why would someone be regarded as a medico-fascist Bill?

    Because they insist on the primacy of medical advice? They don’t accept a place for alternate medicine in dealing with things like cancer diagnosis ?

  23. “The chief executive of the Victorian Aboriginal Legal Service (VALS), Nerita Waight, said people should not be punished for exercising their right to free speech and assembly.”

    I don’t think they are being punished for exercising their right to free speech and assembly. I think they are being fined for other reasons.

  24. I think the Victorian police feel their day wasn’t wasted if they fine a few organisers. Presumably the organisers will have good legal representation to defend being fined.

    It’s better than the NSW police and a small number of demonstrators having a clash after the rally. Almost as if both sides wanted a ritual confrontation to show their day hadn’t been wasted.

  25. From the same article….

    “As the protest was breaking up, Victoria Police issued a statement saying each of the organisers would be fined $1,652 for breaching the directions of the Chief Health Officer.

    “Police will continue to investigate the events of today to determine whether any further follow-up enforcement activity is required,” Assistant Commissioner Luke Cornelius said in a statement on Saturday evening.

    One of the organisers, Meriki Onus from Warriors of the Aboriginal Resistance (WAR), said on Saturday evening the fines were “disappointing” and that “they [police] didn’t need to do it”.

    It is not clear how police will define protest organisers or how many fines will be issued.

    Otherwise, police were “generally pleased” with the behaviour of the crowd, which was estimated to have been as high as 10,000 people.

    As of 5:00pm, there had been no arrests and no reports of property damage.

    A 20-person limit on outdoor gatherings still applies in Victoria, and on Friday, Deputy Commissioner Shane Patton warned organisers could be fined if the event breaks the Chief Health Officer’s directives.”
    —————-

    Are any other organisers of all the protests held around the country being fined?

  26. Apparently Tony Abbott is getting a Queen’s birthday gong tomorrow.

    Also a friend of mine is, hers being richly deserved.

  27. “Apparently Tony Abbott is getting a Queen’s birthday gong tomorrow.”

    That’s gonna devalue everyone else’s…

  28. Meher Baba:
    “Anybody from that part of the world – even most Aborigines – will tell you that the young Aboriginal men and even kids are, on average, more likely to get up to mischief than other young men and kids. And they would also say that’s it’s not the case with all Aboriginal young men and kids: there are particular well-known families which produce most of the troublemakers. And some of these families are white, but the majority aren’t.”

    That is a classic, unfounded, straight out, racist statement, with no supporting evidence.

    And you have the barefaced hide to come on here to ask others to back up your blatant foul prejudice! You have nil self-awareness.

  29. Asteroid clickbait is so….

    Eventually there’s going to be an asteroid that really is going to come close and no one is going to pay any attention thanks to all the click bait.

  30. If the B L M protest focus on how the bottom 33% are going to cop the brunt of this economic downturn, there could be major political turmoil ahead. If someone has nothing to lose, why stop when the rich are getting richer and the poor get nothing.
    What if they demand Govts bring the tax evaders in tax havens and tax minimisers to heel. If the cost of these demonstrations starts financially impacting state budgets, it can only impact those with money.
    If Cormann and Co blame the demonstrators for damaging the economy, so what. Blame them for another wave of covid-19 affecting society, so what.
    In Australia 100,000 this weekend. What if its 200,000 next week.

  31. It might be a controversial view, but the best thing for the nation would be for Qld to throw out the ALP government – and welcome in the LNP at the State election.

    Those 22 federal Qld seats held by the LNP may not be that safe after 2 years of medicine

  32. Who was it that predicted the BLM protests would be used as a scapegoat for causing the (nigh inevitable, without an indefinite travel-ban on the U.S.) second wave of infections?

    They win the Internet.

    And did this tool have anything to say when it was anti-vaccine and -5G protesters a week ago? Nope.

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