On failure

A look at efforts to get to the bottom of last year’s federal election pollster failure and the Electoral Commission of Queensland’s recent election night meltdown.

The Association of Market and Social Research Organisations has published a discussion paper for its review into last year’s federal election polling failure. It notes that existing standards set by the Australian Press Council are too lax and readily ignored in any case, and suggests a familiar retinue of suggested new standards including full disclosure of weightings used and detail of how preference flows were determined. While the inquiry’s committee and advisory group are impressively credentialled, it should be noted that most actual pollsters aren’t members of the AMSRO. The recent announcement that YouGov, Essential Research and uComms would establish an Australian Polling Council occurred independently of its process, and is likely to be the more consequential development.

Meanwhile, a parliamentary inquiry has been putting the blowtorch to the Electoral Commission of Queensland over the failure of its results reporting facilities at the local government elections and state by-elections on March 28. Excuses include disruption arising from COVID-19, which extended to “coding resources” being locked down in Wuhan, and the complication of combining elections for two state parliament seats with the statewide council elections. It also appears an American firm contracted to provide a new election management system, Konnech, has found itself bamboozled by what the electoral commissioner described as “the complexity of Queensland electoral law”, which “far exceeded that of any other Konnech customer” (a conclusion it would no doubt have reached in any Australian jurisdiction).

The new results website went belly-up on testing a week out from election day, prompting the ECQ to hurriedly concoct the unfamiliar-looking results website that appeared on the night. Polling booth officials were required to submit results through a shareable spreadsheet application, which threw up formating inconsistencies upon transfer to the ECQ system. The ECQ’s technical staff spent the night dealing with the results website issues, leaving corresponding issues with a horrifyingly complex XML results feed to one side. Consequently, the ABC’s results displays remained stuck on a tiny share of the count all night, and updates remained infrequent beyond election night. It is to be hoped that this will all be sorted out before a state election that will be held on October 31.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,379 comments on “On failure”

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  1. Pegasus @ #862 Monday, May 25th, 2020 – 6:04 pm

    Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews standing firm on China amid growing criticism from US, Opposition

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-25/daniel-andrews-victoria-standing-firm-on-belt-and-road-deal/12283520

    “To some of Daniel Andrews’ closest supporters, his relationship with China is pragmatic and smart.

    But for others, the Victorian Premier is playing a troubling game with the emerging superpower, a totalitarian country they warn, that bullies its way to its objectives.

    China is the state’s biggest trading partner and the potential source of major investment for the big projects on Mr Andrews’ election-winning agenda.

    Some inside the ranks of Victorian Labor warn there is “confusion and concern” among Caucus and the community about Mr Andrews’ deals with China, especially the decision for Victoria to take the unusual step of signing up to the Belt and Road Initiative.

    The framework agreement signed in October is a not legally binding but includes a commitment to working together on infrastructure.

    It is a deal criticised by the Morrison Government and analysts for undermining Australian foreign policy.”

    Is Kimberly Kitching backgrounding against the Andrews Govt ..?

  2. Peg

    That list demonstrates exactly what I have been saying.

    The Greens have lost the biodiversity plot.

    None of that list will make the slightest difference to the impact of 20,000 people, 10,000 dwellings and 6,000 cats in the Lower Molongolo. It is population pressures that are driving biodiversity loss in the ACT.

    Planting shade trees in the built environment is cack-handed when it comes protecting biodiversity priorities.

    Why?

    Almost none of the ACT’s endangered species use urban shade trees.

    Indeed there is some reason to fear that what urban trees do is to increase the population of Noisy Miners, listed as a threatening process.

    But when you are more interested in calling yourself ‘green’ than in understanding or protecting biodiversity, what can you expect?

  4. Let’s see, we now have the CIA, Newscorp, Duttons Homeland Security and Labor rats all working as a cartel to overthrow the Andrews Govt.

  5. How can anyone rationalise with a person who believes that coronavirus is a Bill Gates plot to implant microchips in them?

    I’m just disappointed that Fox ‘News’ appears to have gone cold on George Soros. He’s not feeling the love any more!

  8. Andrews and his cabinet should be expecting their phones to be hacked and bugged, their comcars followed, their houses surveilled….

  10. davidwh @ #889 Monday, May 25th, 2020 – 7:19 pm

    Rex Andrews should do the right thing and resign and make it easy for all those good folks.

    😆

    In all seriousness I’ll be amazed if his Govt survives to the next state election.

    Andrews and his comrades will be the victims of entrapment by the dark forces.

  11. RD

    Are you referring to this..

    Victorian Treasurer’s China comments spark outrage among federal colleagues

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/victorian-treasurer-s-china-comments-spark-outrage-among-federal-colleagues-20200519-p54uix.html

    Victorian Labor senator Kimberley Kitching, chair of the Senate Foreign Affairs Defence and Trade References Committee, said state governments “have no constitutional responsibility for foreign affairs and trade” and it should be left to the federal government.

    “The Victorian government should not have entered into an agreement with the Chinese government on the Belt and Road Initiative – it is bad policy and bad optics,” Senator Kitching said.

  12. C@t:

    Ted Lieu’s CoS put it best 😆

    Marc Cevasco@mcevasco
    ·
    10h
    “Governing this country with Republicans is like rooming with a meth addict. You want to address real-life problems like when the rent is due, and they’re saying, ‘How can you even think of that stuff when there’s police scanner voices coming out of the air conditioning unit?’”

  16. Tom the first and best says:
    Monday, May 25, 2020 at 7:37 pm

    https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/05/24/on-failure/comment-page-26/#comment-3413566

    Getting involved in the anti-democratic PRC`s imperialist Belt and Road Initiative is clearly a mistake and some people in the Victorian ALP (as well as many outside the Victorian ALP) can see it.
    __________________
    Why shouldn’t they have signed a non binding agreement that may yet provide billions for a project that might benefit both nations. At the time of its signing I assumed a new port might eventuate, freeing up immensely valuable realestate in inner Melbourne.

  17. Douglas and Milko says:
    Monday, May 25, 2020 at 7:11 pm

    Interesting – Australian Defence Intelligence (I know, I know) is looking for analysists who will specialise in nuclear warfare.

    Yes it is interesting watching the adverts.
    Big recruitment a few years ago for skill need for drones.

  19. I see no problem with the Andrews government doing business with China’s belt and road project as long as it is transparent about it and its hardly different than selling iron ore or coal to the same Chinese state. The belt and road project links a large number of countries in a way that could be transformative.

  21. RD

    Is Palaszczuk a Labor rat? November 2018…..

    Annastacia Palaszczuk weighs in on Victorian government’s controversial China Belt and Road Initiative deal

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/annastacia-palaszczuk-weighs-in-on-victorian-governments-controversial-china-belt-and-road-initiative-deal/news-story/c724fbb417970bf0d6e022f9c4745f51

    Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has broken ranks with her Labor colleagues following the Victorian government’s controversial decision to join China’s Belt and Road infrastructure initiative.

    As Bill Shorten defended Daniel Andrews’s move as part of “normal day-to-day work” for a state government, Ms Palaszczuk rejected suggestions Queensland join Victoria in going behind Canberra’s back.

    “I firmly believe that issues in relation to One Belt One Road and the relationships between China and the Australian government should be at the (national) government-to-government level,” she told reporters in Brisbane.

    ——–

    Palaszczuk belts Victoria over BRI deal with China

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/foreign-affairs/palaszczuk-belts-victoria-over-bri-deal-with-china/news-story/2904eb918d20d1b50ea4978f2b1ba2e7

    Bill Shorten’s defence of Victoria joining the Belt and Road Initiative as “normal day-to-day work of state politicians” has been slapped down by Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk, who argued China’s signature infrastructure program should be supported only by national governments.

    Ms Palaszczuk said Queensland would not join the BRI after Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews caved in to public pressure on Sunday evening and released the memorandum of understanding he signed with Beijing.

    While the Opposition Leader defended Mr Andrews for breaking ranks with federal Labor on the BRI, Ms Palaszczuk said state governments should focus on forging ­relationships with sub-national governments. The Queensland-­Shanghai sister-state relationship was established in 1989. “I firmly believe that issues in relation to One Belt One Road and the relationships between China and the Australian government should be at the (national) government-to-government level,” Ms Palaszczuk said.

  23. Red Ted:

    Re: Your post late last night in which you were critical of Karl Popper. Put simply and succinctly, Popper was a class act, arguing that in order for science to constitute science, the starting point is whether a theory is refutable, the corollary of which is that if there’s no such evidence, then in Popper’s view, that’s science. The alternative is to only search for evidence to support one’s hypothesis. This, in his view, is anathema to the scientific method.

  24. Is Palaszczuk a Labor rat?

    It’s hardly supporting a comrade, is it …?

    Bill Shorten simply can’t be trusted. History proves that.

  25. Andrews is the only state premier to sign up to China’s BRI. He has no choice but to continue supporting it as he is dependent on the money from China to fund his massive infrastructure projects.

  27. Mexican.
    Imagine if it was the Chinese govt rather Transurban building the West Gate tunnel project.
    How do you reckon that would play out ?

  28. Pegasus @ #1275 Monday, May 25th, 2020 – 8:00 pm

    Andrews is the only state premier to sign up to China’s BRI. He has no choice but to continue supporting it as he is dependent on the money from China to fund his massive infrastructure projects.

    Pegasus @ #1275 Monday, May 25th, 2020 – 8:00 pm

    Andrews is the only state premier to sign up to China’s BRI. He has no choice but to continue supporting it as he is dependent on the money from China to fund his massive infrastructure projects.

    That is the plan.

    So?


  29. Pegasus says:
    Monday, May 25, 2020 at 8:00 pm
    Andrews is the only state premier to sign up to China’s BRI. He has no choice but to continue supporting it as he is dependent on the money from China to fund his massive infrastructure projects.

    Boy you post some rubbish at times.

  32. honestly ! murdoch’s paper, the australian, says palaszczuk *belts* andrews.

    venison says palaszczuk, in her campaign for reelection, neutralizes the frothy right’s china-wedge in queensland. -a.v.

  33. October 2019: Australian Perspectives on the Belt and Road Initiative

    https://www.australiachinarelations.org/content/australian-perspectives-belt-and-road-initiative

    “The Australian Labor Party (ALP), despite having expressed some openness to the BRI in years previous, has been largely silent on their positioning this year.
    :::
    While most state and territory governments, such as New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia, have opted to refrain from formal engagement with the BRI, leaving it to the federal government to chart a course in that area – a course of action preferred by the federal government – there is not complete unity on this front. Victoria has opted to effectively go it alone, signing two MoUs with the PRC, while the Northern Territory continues to speak highly welcomingly of the initiative.”

  35. Maybe China could take our toxic dirt ? Is not far from the Port of Mebourne.
    A bit of give and take between friends.

  36. Mavis

    The alternative is to only search for evidence to support one’s hypothesis. This, in his view, is anathema to the scientific method.

    When it comes to the “scientific method” that particular “alternative” has always been considered as a virtual antonym………………..or so I was taught a life time ago.

  37. frednk @ #1275 Monday, May 25th, 2020 – 6:05 pm


    Pegasus says:
    Monday, May 25, 2020 at 8:00 pm
    Andrews is the only state premier to sign up to China’s BRI. He has no choice but to continue supporting it as he is dependent on the money from China to fund his massive infrastructure projects.

    Boy you post some rubbish at times.

    “at times”????

  38. Is this the same Scout who a day or two ago pleaded wtte for everyone to desist with the ad hominems and incivility?

  40. Pegasus

    Chairman Dan, sooo unlike the whole of Australia being dependent on them thar Chicommies buying all our iron ore and sending students,tourists etc etc etc .

  45. In a report to Congress, the Trump administration is pledging to buy 100 million swabs by the year’s end and distribute them to states to help expand the nation’s capacity to test for the novel coronavirus.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/trump-administration-vows-in-new-report-to-distribute-100-million-swabs-to-states-by-years-end/2020/05/24/9c02d240-9d06-11ea-ac72-3841fcc9b35f_story.html

    But Donald told us only the other week that there’d be a vaccine by January!

  47. Neighbours, The Voice and Border Security screened in Pacific in $17m soft-power push

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-25/australian-tv-broadcast-pacific-png-china-influence-soft-power/12283700

    Australian television shows like The Voice, Border Security, Neighbours and MasterChef will be broadcast in the Pacific under a $17.1 million Australian Government project at a time when China’s diplomatic and media presence is on the rise in the region.

    But some critics say the funds could have been better used to develop Pacific broadcasting capabilities, strengthen independent journalism in the region or showcase content more relevant to Pacific audiences.

    Broadcasters in Papua New Guinea welcomed the move, saying they had been consulted and had chosen content they thought would suit their audiences.

    But they also hoped Pacific content would be beamed onto Australian TVs.
    :::
    Is using soft power to counter China the right approach?

  49. davidwh says:
    Monday, May 25, 2020 at 8:17 pm

    Poroti to be fair they rely on us to buy all their chop suey and chow mein.

    Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, May 25, 2020 at 8:19 pm

    My understaning is that the Libs like “I see Ming” as a main course.
    __________________
    Good to hear from those blogging with us from the 1950s. Say hi to Arthur Calwell when you see him.

  50. Pegasus @ #1279 Monday, May 25th, 2020 – 6:09 pm

    October 2019: Australian Perspectives on the Belt and Road Initiative

    https://www.australiachinarelations.org/content/australian-perspectives-belt-and-road-initiative

    “The Australian Labor Party (ALP), despite having expressed some openness to the BRI in years previous, has been largely silent on their positioning this year.
    :::

    Hardly surprising considering they are evaluating and developing policies.

    While most state and territory governments, such as New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia, have opted to refrain from formal engagement with the BRI, leaving it to the federal government to chart a course in that area – a course of action preferred by the federal government – there is not complete unity on this front. Victoria has opted to effectively go it alone, signing two MoUs with the PRC, while the Northern Territory continues to speak highly welcomingly of the initiative.”

    So, Victoria and NT see something positive for them, while the others don’t. No mention of SA.

    WOW!!!!!

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