The Association of Market and Social Research Organisations has published a discussion paper for its review into last year’s federal election polling failure. It notes that existing standards set by the Australian Press Council are too lax and readily ignored in any case, and suggests a familiar retinue of suggested new standards including full disclosure of weightings used and detail of how preference flows were determined. While the inquiry’s committee and advisory group are impressively credentialled, it should be noted that most actual pollsters aren’t members of the AMSRO. The recent announcement that YouGov, Essential Research and uComms would establish an Australian Polling Council occurred independently of its process, and is likely to be the more consequential development.
Meanwhile, a parliamentary inquiry has been putting the blowtorch to the Electoral Commission of Queensland over the failure of its results reporting facilities at the local government elections and state by-elections on March 28. Excuses include disruption arising from COVID-19, which extended to “coding resources” being locked down in Wuhan, and the complication of combining elections for two state parliament seats with the statewide council elections. It also appears an American firm contracted to provide a new election management system, Konnech, has found itself bamboozled by what the electoral commissioner described as “the complexity of Queensland electoral law”, which “far exceeded that of any other Konnech customer” (a conclusion it would no doubt have reached in any Australian jurisdiction).
The new results website went belly-up on testing a week out from election day, prompting the ECQ to hurriedly concoct the unfamiliar-looking results website that appeared on the night. Polling booth officials were required to submit results through a shareable spreadsheet application, which threw up formating inconsistencies upon transfer to the ECQ system. The ECQ’s technical staff spent the night dealing with the results website issues, leaving corresponding issues with a horrifyingly complex XML results feed to one side. Consequently, the ABC’s results displays remained stuck on a tiny share of the count all night, and updates remained infrequent beyond election night. It is to be hoped that this will all be sorted out before a state election that will be held on October 31.
On Failure!
Another Liberal failure……
It was sold as the key to unlocking restrictions – like sunscreen to protect Australians from Covid-19 – but as the country begins to open up, the role of the Covidsafe app in the recovery seems to have dropped to marginal at best.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/24/how-did-the-covidsafe-app-go-from-being-vital-to-almost-irrelevant
As I said some weeks ago here on PB, the worst part was the overall pretense that we had the means in place to control any possible outbreaks. And at the time, the app was all that got attention. As I said, it was an unwelcome distraction. The media never asked pertinent questions like “Will you now show us your modelling to prove you can control outbreaks even if R(eff) is well over 1 as the result of easing restrictions?”.
All our collective governments have done since that is of any consequence is relax rules for testing. There’s been no mass testing of targeted groups of asymptomatic people. There’s been no planning for or resourcing of the kinds of powerful surveilance and tracking that is really needed. Literally hundreds of people trained to pore over CCTV footage, go through cell network data, look at bank transactions. This is the kind of thing that actually works. You have to build a physical map of every movement someone has made. Every place that person has been to, every bus that person has been on. Everything. And you then need to have the means to identify all the people that person has been near. For example, the person steps onto a train and there are 50 people in that carriage. You need to have the resources to identify and locate everyone on that carriage, isolate them (temporarily), test them and also test anyone they’ve been in contact with.
That requires enormous training and resources and there’s absolutely no evidence that any government has so far done this. My fear is that its only when we have a second wave that we’ll suddenly get motivated to do this sort of thing. And its all because the second rate marketing man who is our Prime Minster used the app as a cheap trick to lure people into a false sense of security.
The PM told Australians in April the contact tracing app was key to getting back to normal but just one person has been identified using its data
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I have been saying it before the app was released
it will be useless because the lack of testing data, the app will only pickup those who are in the database that are infected.
those people in the database who are infected should not be in public , they should have been in isolation
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Not so many links today but there are some quality contributions.
David Crowe and Nick Bonyhady write that the Morrison government will consider giving more help to workers who have been hit hardest by the coronavirus crisis as it grapples with internal division over whether to bank or spend the $60 billion saving from its recalculated JobKeeper wage subsidy program. There are, however, some in the Coalition that are saying the “saving” should be pocketed.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/how-about-we-don-t-spend-it-coalition-divided-over-60-billion-jobkeeper-windfall-20200523-p54vrk.html
Dannielle Cronin writes that Annastacia Palaszczuk is not for turning. In a week when so many weighed in on whether the state should reopen its borders, the leader held firm and vowed to only heed the counsel of one.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/queensland/queensland-premier-holds-her-ground-as-state-rivalries-erupt-20200521-p54v42.html
Josh Taylor explains why he thinks the COVIDSafe app went from being vital to being almost irrelevant.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/24/how-did-the-covidsafe-app-go-from-being-vital-to-almost-irrelevant
As we begin the process of reopening the economy, it’s important to factor in the potential cost of human life it could cause, writes Bruce Keogh.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/its-time-for-scott-morrison-to-play-god,13923
In quite a worthwhile contribution Simon Cowan says that although Frydenberg will no doubt face continuing pressure over the JobSeeker supplement, in many ways it is JobKeeper that is likely to prove the greater challenge. He also says, While it is important to note that JobKeeper was introduced in response to an external crisis, not in response to perceived market failure, this does not change its nature: we must avoid normalising government bailing out business.”
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6766679/maintaining-jobkeeper-beyond-the-health-crisis-would-be-a-serious-mistake/?cs=14329
Paul Karp reveals that a $20m federal government program to upgrade showgrounds delivered just $2.2m to 11 Labor-held seats while the Nationals received more than four times as much – $9.2m – for 10 seats. This has a familiar smell about it, doesn’t it?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/24/coalition-grants-for-showgrounds-gives-nationals-four-times-as-much-as-labor
The head of the Morrison government commission tasked with coming up with plans to revitalise the economy after the coronavirus crisis, Nev Power, is to step aside from his position as deputy chairman of a gas company over conflict of interest concerns. Well, it IS stacked with industry and business heavies.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/23/covid-commission-boss-nev-power-steps-back-at-gas-company-amid-conflict-of-interest-concerns
Nick O’Malley writes about the Lowy Institute saying that soon climate change will again be the focus of the world, and Australia will again be isolated for its recalcitrant response.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/carbon-road-map-winning-few-friends-little-influence-20200522-p54vkh.html
Crispin Hull says Australia easily beats Trump on COVID-19 and he tells us why rational decision-making wins every time. This is an excellent examination.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6764900/why-australia-easily-beats-trump-on-covid-19/?cs=14258
Ben Butler writes that retirees who have lived off a steady stream of share dividends have seen their income plunge as banks cancel payouts, and they face more financial pain in coming months when research shows more companies are likely to slash their distributions because of the coronavirus crisis.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/may/22/retirees-face-financial-ruin-as-coronavirus-slashes-share-dividends
Joh Lord reckons that when it comes to climate policy we are being conned if we believe the government.
https://theaimn.com/we-are-being-conned-if-we-believe-the-government/
Covid-19 has put Australian charities at risk just when they are needed most.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/may/24/really-struggling-covid-19-puts-australian-charities-at-risk-just-when-they-are-needed-most
Don’t blame COVID-19. Target’s decline is part of a deeper trend say these two academics.
https://theconversation.com/dont-blame-covid-19-targets-decline-is-part-of-a-deeper-trend-139205
And pfftt! There goes Hertz into bankruptcy in the US.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/hertz-files-for-bankruptcy-protection-as-rentals-evaporate-in-pandemic-20200523-p54vqe.html
Seven questions answered on how to socialise safely as coronavirus restrictions ease.
https://theconversation.com/7-questions-answered-on-how-to-socialise-safely-as-coronavirus-restrictions-ease-139109
Sexual abuse suffered by children leaves a lifetime of damage and can be painful to talk about, as Gerry Georgatos knows first hand. He explains why it takes so long for victims to come forward.
https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/child-sexual-abuse-and-the-difficulty-of-coming-forward,13922
Sweden’s Covid-19 policy is a model for the right. It’s also a deadly folly says Nick Cohen.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2020/may/23/sweden-covid-19-policy-model-for-right-also-a-deadly-folly
Lockdown questions continue to bombard the British Government with the Prime Minister facing pressure to sack his closest aide, the rather odious Dominic Cummings, after it emerged that he travelled to his parents’ home despite coronavirus-related restrictions.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6767243/johnson-under-pressure-to-sack-top-uk-aide/?cs=14232
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
Matt Golding
Mark David
Alan Moir
Reg Lynch
From the US
In fairness, you’d expect that when someone does test, they will get put into isolation. Its the people they’ve been near whilst potentially infectious that you’re trying to track down.
However, as you say there is an obvious weakness. Those people who get infected but don’t get tested aren’t going to be in the database and are going to continue infecting people. As we ease restrictions and allow people to crowd onto trains and into food courts and R(eff) goes well over 1.0, only extremely well resourced tracking (CCTV footage etc) is going to catch up.
Of course if you were mass testing the general asymptomatic population now, it wouldn’t come to that.
“Josh Taylor explains why he thinks the COVIDSafe app went from being vital to being almost irrelevant.”
BK, do I get points for predicting that here? 🙂
FMD. Step aside………….until he steps back in again. What a bent corrupt system.
Trump Golfs As America Approaches 100,000 Virus Deaths
As the US continues its grim march toward 100,000 coronavirus deaths, Donald Trump is spending his Saturday at one of his clubs golfing.
Trump is hitting the links as Americans die:
President Trump has arrived at his Northern Virginia golf course, his first visit to one of his golf properties since March 8
https://www.politicususa.com/2020/05/23/trump-golfs-virus.html
Thanks BK for the dawn Patrol.
Back to bed for the sensible among us. 😲
Cud Chewer
Predicitng This Government+IT= FAIL scores very low points due to the EASY PEASY difficulty rating 🙂
“Such is their deference that last week, Frode Forland, Norway’s state epidemiologist, complained that there had been almost no critical media coverage of the high death rate in Sweden.”
Sadly the Australian media has also shown this blind faith in authority – as well as a lot of Australians. We may not have stuffed up as badly as Sweden, but the mistakes that were made (not closing borders sooner, not locking down sooner) and are being made (not really having the capabilities in place to deal with a second wave, risking crowding of public transport and so on) are being totally overlooked by the media.
poroti I was also predicting that the app would be quickly forgotten. Everyone is now too absorbed with the media telling them how wonderful it is that they can go to a pub. Doncha just love Australia..
Honest media outlets and journalists would be attacking Morrison and his cronies for reneging on the $ 60 billion to help Australians who are in need of help.
Morrison and co admitted that the $130 billion for jobkeeper was borrowed money.
Only corrupt media outlets and journalists would lie that Morrison and cronies actually saved Australians $60 billion called it a win fall and it is only $70 billion which was borrowed.
BK
I love the “Centre for a diseased control..” cartoon 🙂
Proves the US can occasionally come up with something funny…
Has anyone nailed down precisely how many people are actually in employment?
Has anyone nailed down precisely how many people are actually in employment?
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Cud
It puzzles me how Treasury can get it SO wrong. Sally McManus has pointed to the people who are working off the books for cash. Perhaps this might answer the question, partially at least.
phoenixRed:
There’s always a tweet!
From Rex Patrick on Facebook.
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NATIONAL COVID-19 COORDINATION COMMISSION’S CONFLICTS-OF-INTEREST
The National COVID-19 Coordination Commission (NCCC) is stacked with executives from the gas and mining industry. Perhaps it’s no wonder that they have come up with a draft COVID-19 recovery plan which centres about underwriting a gas industry expansion.
When you ask a lawyer a question you get a legal answer, when you ask a doctor a question you get a medical answer and when you ask a gas executive a question you tend to get a gas answer. I have a fear that’s what’s happening in this case.
Irrespective of the merits of the NCCC’s plans, there is a clear perception of bias. Independence from conflicts-of-interest must not just be the case, it must be seen to be the case.
One of the ways to address growing conflict-of-interest concerns is for the NCCC to open up its books to show alternative recovery solutions that have been considered (that don’t involve gas) so that everyone can see the cost-benefit analysis that’s been done.
Transparency acts as a disinfectant and also builds confidence. A continuing lack of transparency will fuel concerns about conflicts-of-interest and private agendas. That will harm the work of the Commission and Australia’s economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.
Australia now 58th on the list of countries by number of cases. On a part with its broadband ranking…
BK
My gut feeling is that despite all the complaints about how severe our lockdown was, there were actually a lot of people still working, even if reduced hours.
I can see the LNP Wand of Rubbery Figures, Budget Fudging and Outright Lies is going to be worn down to a tiny sputtering twig as Scotty from Marketing and Crony Co. Inc. try to warp and twist nasty reality into their rosy unreality that they want us to believe. Nothing to worry about the masters of economics and fiscal policies will sort it all out.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/agency-puts-australia-on-notice-amid-concerns-about-household-debt-20200522-p54viv.html
poroti
Because of the perceptions of conflict of interest …..
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With this gang it’s all about marketing. Whether the covidsafe app actually worked is always a poor second to its marketing value …. its perception.
Likewise with the Mining Coordination Committee…..
There is little substance to Morrison behind the spin.
The coalition supporters should be attacking Morrison and his cronies increasing Australia’s debt by an extra $ 60 billion when there was no need
The media and coalition supporters would be calling for the Labor prime minister and treasurer to resign over this $60 billion waste
I bet there are more than just ‘some’.
https://www.pm.gov.au/media/update-coronavirus-measures-1may20
The “Precedent conditions” was a bunch of waffle put out by the AHPPC which incidentally now returns a 404.
That description of the ECQs problems was quite a ride. Can’t help wondering if doing it in house would have been safer and cheaper than an outsourcing process spanning continents.
WTAF! Why were ‘coding resources’ located in Wuhan in the first place!?! Especially when Australian governments have been so gung ho in not letting Chinese software and hardware firms gain access to our systems!?! And then letting an American firm gain the contract to deal with the results of the Local Council and By-elections!?! When the American system is completely alien to ours!?!
a r could have done it better! 😀
This tendency to go for low ball pitches for tenders has to stop. For important matters like our electoral process we have to give the job to trusted Australian firms.
Rakali @ #21 Sunday, May 24th, 2020 – 7:38 am
Scott Morrison is the ultimate Hollow Man. No doubt about it.
On Failure!
This is so appalling.
The end of this poor woman’s life went on for years!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-23/little-is-known-about-the-life-of-ann-marie-smith/12275658?WT.ac=localnews_adelaide
Retirees who have lived off a steady stream of share dividends have seen their income plunge as banks cancel payouts, and they face more financial pain in coming months when research shows more companies are likely to slash their distributions because of the coronavirus crisis.
Those who believe the damage wrought to their share portfolios means they now qualify for a part-pension have been having trouble dealing with a Centrelink system already struggling with waves of the freshly unemployed, the Association of Independent Retirees says.
BK @ #16 Sunday, May 24th, 2020 – 7:21 am
That would be the Black Economy that John Howard was going to get rid of with the introduction of the BAS and the ABN, wouldn’t it? Nope. Nope. Nope. It’s still there.
This missing $60bill will provide plenty of ammunition to to those questioning the Government’s ability to manage money and the economy.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1264077390789128192
Holdenhillbilly @ #30 Sunday, May 24th, 2020 – 8:20 am
I file this under, ‘Karma Is A Bitch’, sorry.
Wouldn’t it be wonderful if we could just restore honest, rational, open, respectful government that operated for the common good.
It is a fantasy i know, as Australians keep electing people to govern them who don’t actually believe in government, least of all good government!
What an excellent choice of blog title by William today. “On Failure”.
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FMD. Step aside………….until he steps back in again. What a bent corrupt system.
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Words fail me. That they thought they would get away with it and think this ‘stepping down’ makes it OK shows they r not only corrupt but feel they can act with impunity. That they are getting away with it is proof our 4th estate is nothing but a charade and too many Coalition backers and voters don’t care how dodgy their tribal leaders are.
Hopefully enough voters will see through the fog and change their vote.
No wonder Trump thinks Fox News has gone to the dogs!
Gladys’ edict on social distancing on Sydney’s public transport is throwing up huge practical problems. Telling people to stay home, drive to work and drive the kids to (mostly private) schools is just an attempt to shift the burden onto others.
I think that eventually she will have to allow more passengers on board and get people to wear face masks.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/extra-services-added-to-sydney-s-straining-transport-network-20200523-p54vrs.html
Gee, and I was worried people thought I was advocating a police state, by encouraging use of The App. That at least keeps data fairly confidential.
But once you have what Cud Chewer is demanding above, then it’s “Hello Brave New World”.
It’s inconceivable that such an ability to trace contacts – “Every place that person has been to, every bus that person has been on. Everything.” – would ever be taken down once established.
Cud, get some sleep. You’re starting to obsess over this.
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FMD. Step aside………….until he steps back in again. What a bent corrupt system.
It’s just a jump to the left,
And then a step to the Right, Right, Right, Right!
Let’s do the Fossil Fuel Time Warp again! 😉
Where is Scott Morrison ?
Have not seen him for days
https://johnmenadue.com/peter-sainsbury-sunday-environmental-round-up-24-may-2020/#more-45964
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Quantifying extinction risk and forecasting the number of impending Australian bird and mammal extinctions: https://www.publish.csiro.au/pc/pdf/PC18006
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IEEFA Australia: Investing in carbon capture and storage and relying on voluntary actions on emissions is like revisiting the olden days
The government’s Climate Solutions Fund offers little hope for financial industry backers of a Paris-aligned economic recovery
https://ieefa.org/ieefa-australia-investing-in-carbon-capture-and-storage-and-relying-on-voluntary-actions-on-emissions-is-like-revisiting-the-olden-days/
Scott @ #41 Sunday, May 24th, 2020 – 8:41 am
Doing his, ‘Absence makes the heart grow fonder’, routine before the big speech at the NPC next week. Also, doing his Witness protection routine since the Gas Power Commission stuff blew up in his face. It’s hard to get the egg off. 🙂
https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/western-australia/liberal-candidate-faces-sack-after-revelations-he-drove-without-a-licence-with-30-unpaid-fines-20200522-p54vio.html
Driving unlicensed with 30 unpaid fines against his name. If he were an Aboriginal person he’d be in jail for fine default.
That’s my hope….vote for progressive parties instead of the entrenched political duopoly.
lizzie @ #43 Sunday, May 24th, 2020 – 8:43 am
See? Clare O’Neill IS being very effective for Labor. 🙂
C@tmomma
The GST was also going to put a stop to the cash economy…………………or so The Rodent told us.
Confessions @ #45 Sunday, May 24th, 2020 – 8:47 am
Liberals just think they can tough it out until the heat blows over. Zero accountability. Zero ethics. But I bet this guy is a ‘good Christian’, huh? 🙄