The Association of Market and Social Research Organisations has published a discussion paper for its review into last year’s federal election polling failure. It notes that existing standards set by the Australian Press Council are too lax and readily ignored in any case, and suggests a familiar retinue of suggested new standards including full disclosure of weightings used and detail of how preference flows were determined. While the inquiry’s committee and advisory group are impressively credentialled, it should be noted that most actual pollsters aren’t members of the AMSRO. The recent announcement that YouGov, Essential Research and uComms would establish an Australian Polling Council occurred independently of its process, and is likely to be the more consequential development.
Meanwhile, a parliamentary inquiry has been putting the blowtorch to the Electoral Commission of Queensland over the failure of its results reporting facilities at the local government elections and state by-elections on March 28. Excuses include disruption arising from COVID-19, which extended to “coding resources” being locked down in Wuhan, and the complication of combining elections for two state parliament seats with the statewide council elections. It also appears an American firm contracted to provide a new election management system, Konnech, has found itself bamboozled by what the electoral commissioner described as “the complexity of Queensland electoral law”, which “far exceeded that of any other Konnech customer” (a conclusion it would no doubt have reached in any Australian jurisdiction).
The new results website went belly-up on testing a week out from election day, prompting the ECQ to hurriedly concoct the unfamiliar-looking results website that appeared on the night. Polling booth officials were required to submit results through a shareable spreadsheet application, which threw up formating inconsistencies upon transfer to the ECQ system. The ECQ’s technical staff spent the night dealing with the results website issues, leaving corresponding issues with a horrifyingly complex XML results feed to one side. Consequently, the ABC’s results displays remained stuck on a tiny share of the count all night, and updates remained infrequent beyond election night. It is to be hoped that this will all be sorted out before a state election that will be held on October 31.
poroti @ #48 Sunday, May 24th, 2020 – 8:50 am
‘Honest John’ 😆
Today we are bracing for a rare storm event.
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=618376768763851
C@t:
I was wondering if Troy Buswell was a hero of his!
Greg Jericho – The climate crisis looms as the Coalition fiddles with fossil fuels
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/24/the-climate-crisis-looms-as-the-coalition-fiddles-with-fossil-fuels
citizen
“I think that eventually she will have to allow more passengers on board and get people to wear face masks.”
That’s not going to make it safe.
As I keep saying you’ve got 3 choices
1. Eliminate the virus
2. See the virus go out of control
3. Keep suppressing the virus and cripple the CBD by restricting the number of people who can use public transport to safe levels.
Its ok Pegasus.. gas will come to our rescue! *duck*
Pegasus says:
Sunday, May 24, 2020 at 8:43 am
https://johnmenadue.com/peter-sainsbury-sunday-environmental-round-up-24-may-2020/#more-45964
Australia has a terrible record of extinctions and it looks set to get worse.
Speaking of failure, this failure is in part attributable to the destruction of the centre-left plurality by the Greens over the last 25 years or so. The Greens should dissolve themselves for the good of the natural environment on which we depend.
Confessions @ #52 Sunday, May 24th, 2020 – 8:55 am
Ah, the most infamous WA Liberal of all and almost Premier! 😯
Pegasus says:
Sunday, May 24, 2020 at 8:58 am
Greg Jericho – The climate crisis looms as the Coalition fiddles with fossil fuels
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/24/the-climate-crisis-looms-as-the-coalition-fiddles-with-fossil-fuels
We may be dealing with a health crisis, but the climate change crisis has not gone away, nor become any less urgent. In fact, the opposite.
Yes. The LibNats are in power and will likely stay there, thanks to the many, many campaign gigs run by Bob Brown and The Libkin over the last quarter-century.
The most infamous WA Lib was Noel Crichton-Brown. He was/is the original reactionary.
Holy shit I had no idea the genesis of the $60b error. Businesses putting 1500 as the number of their employees and nobody in the administration picked it up!
Labor needs to get Mark Riley on the payroll!
Fess
No, that’s a furphy. The figures don’t add up and blaming businesses is childish. It was a wrong forecast.
Mark Riley doing better than Speers.
Sheridan says he never believes gov figures anyway, which is why he doesn’t believe the forecasts on climate change.
Fantastic logic. 😆
NYT praised for ‘jaw-dropping’ front page honoring coronavirus fatalities: ‘A visceral gut punch’
After revealing that Sunday’s New York Times would not feature an image on the front page, but would instead list the names of COVID-19 fatalities, the newspaper was praised online.
“U.S. deaths near 100,000, an incalculable loss,” the headline read above six columns of names.
“They were not simply names on a list. They were us,” reads the subhead.
The 1,000 people here reflect just 1 percent of the toll,” the paper explained. “None were mere numbers.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/05/nyt-praised-for-jaw-dropping-front-page-honoring-coronavirus-fatalities-a-visceral-gut-punch/
lizzie:
As Crabb said it’s weird that the forecast matches the errors in the forms.
C@t “Why were ‘coding resources’ located in Wuhan in the first place!?!” Howard and Costello started the outsourcing of Federal gov IT. It was part of the 2004 US Free Trade agreement which meant US Companies, whose resources were mostly off shored in India and China, were awarded contracts for Federal IT projects. Rudd had committed to review ICT and commissioned the Gershon Review of the Australian Government’s Use and Management of ICT which effectively recommended insourcing ICT. It was supposed to be implemented in full (see https://www.governmentnews.com.au/gershon-ict-review-to-be-implemented-in-full/) However Lindsey Tanner and the Dept of Finance got their gubby fingers on it and managed to accomplish the complete opposite of the desired outcome by effectively docking the agencies budgets by the projected cost savings. In effect this ironically resulted the shedding permanent IT staff .
I was still working (as a programmer) in a federal agency at the time of the review and had already QAéd some incredibly poorly written software coming through from outsourced IT projects. Granted there was some quality stuff I reviewed too. That was 12 years ago and apparently the Gershon review is still clinging to life somewhere. No respect for Tanner, what a lost opportunity.
phoenixRed:
Front page of the NY Times.
Confessions @ #60 Sunday, May 24th, 2020 – 9:10 am
Where have you been for the last two days?
A huge failure in quality assurance at the ATO that this was not picked up – project management basics.
Confessionssays: Sunday, May 24, 2020 at 9:21 am
phoenixRed:
Front page of the NY Times.
*************************************************
Just shocking Confessions – each name has a little story of their individual lives so they are just not a number …..
Meanwhile Trump golfs on …….
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. On Nev Power “stepping aside”, does that means he still collects the generous salary?
“ Has anyone nailed down precisely how many people are actually in employment?”
This is a harder question than it sounds. There are lots of means used to track employment. Following gradual budget cuts by both Labor and Liberal governments, the capability of the ABS has declined. It has cut the sample size in the workforce survey to the point where our detailed unemployment statistics are no longer as reliable as they were when I first started working. This is a problem in normal times and should be fixed. In the current crisis there is a high risk the monthly survey Does not adequately pick up changes in behaviour, including real work hours.
All that being said, I flatly do not believe Frydenberg’s claim Treasury made a $60 billion “error” because of a few forms being filled out wrong. Treasury HQ has 500 staff including an entire division in forecasting and another in budgeting. Regardless of the political appointee in charge they have many highly credentials economists who are genuine experts in their fields and are used to checking data. They check many sources from different areas to form an overall picture – new business starts, job ads, phone connections, spending, cash flow. The simplistic forms explanation is as unbelievable as Godwin Grech’s tale about utes.
I find it hard not to be suspicious of Frydenberg’s actions and explanations. Was there a deliberate plan to underspend to “look good” at budget time? Was the plan to create a slush fund to spend on other things, like gas projects? I have no idea what the truth is, but I do not believe what Frydenberg said to Karvellas yesterday. And for a difference in spending this large, Treasury should have noticed immediately. So why the delay in announcing it?
Finally, this means the stimulus was smaller than expected. Unless Treasury genuinely believes that a smaller than assumed stimulus was needed, that means we are more likely to head into a deeper recession. Again, why no response from Josh?
Have a good day all.
Serious question on the $60B error – am I wrong in thinking the figure $130B figure was announced prior to the companies submitting erroneous forms???
Bushfire Bill,
Cud “you’re starting to obsess over this” is an understatement.
We are having less than 20 cases per day (and most of those in Victoria) for the last few weeks.
There is elimination in SA and NT and near elimination for WA.
And the wearing of face masks does help in spread of the disease.
Kirky
You’ve missed both BB’s point and my point. That takes some doing.
Terminator
Correct. All the guff about wrong entry forms is just excuses.
The LibNats will mismanage the economic response to the pandemic. This is just inevitable. They are decadent, incompetent, corrupt, idiotic and vain ideologues.
The $60 bill error….will it register in E-M with voters? Maybe.
I think sometimes Penny Wong forgets the audience she’s speaking to – which consists of a large number of average to low IQ people.
The panelists may be intellects, but the audience largely aren’t.
No Cud, my view is you are obsessed with this virus which in three states is eliminated or near elimination. I was just taking his last statement.
Rex
Speaking of audience and Insiders….
Kirky
Wake me up when the virus is eliminated in NSW, ok?
Terminator @ #74 Sunday, May 24th, 2020 – 9:30 am
A serious problem has arisen in
matching
the “Bullshit”
with the
“Fuckups”.
I suspect a new member of the Parliament House Cleaning Crew is the responsible party. 😵 I suspect this reprehensible character will be charged, tried and sentenced to a long prison term under the terms of existing anti terror laws.
Edit spelling correction.
Speers has reverted to his usual style, gaslighting Penny.
Sheridan complimentary to Penny.
Wong showed why she is a good communicator. She nicely dodged the interviewer’s attempts at GOTCHA! while still being able to get across Labor’s key points and sheeting blame home to the government of the day.
Cud, personally I don’t give too hoots about NSW and even Vic for that matter.
“And the wearing of face masks does help in spread of the disease.”
Yes it does, a bit. But it doesn’t make situations like crowded trains safe. Aersolised virus in a limited volume of recirculating air. Masks aren’t designed for that. A HEPA filter on a full respirator maybe.
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, May 24, 2020 at 9:36 am
I think sometimes Penny Wong forgets the audience she’s speaking to – which consists of a large number of average to low IQ people.
The panelists may be intellects, but the audience largely aren’t.
Penny Wong is all class. She would not ‘talk down’ to anyone…..refreshing change from the editors of Rexology, who pre-suppose we’re all idiots.
Greg Sheridan doesn’t accept the Minister saying words she actually said. 😮
Kirky
” I don’t give too hoots about NSW and even Vic for that matter.”
You will when someone gets back on a plane to your state.
Penny Wong’s “It’s up to the government to decide” always sounds weak. I’d prefer “We believe”.
lizzie
Agreed.
Rex Douglas @ #30 Sunday, May 24th, 2020 – 7:36 am
Not everyone who watches is like you Rex.
You’re probably very much in the minority considering how disinterested most people are in day to day politics.
Insiders really did Labor a favour in the opening video clip. The editors put over Albanese’s words in a big way.
Labor, due to its lack of political talent in its ranks, needs assistance like this much more often.
Today’s performance from Wong was intellectually strong, but I think won’t engage the large voter base who aren’t intellects.
Pegasus
Australia has a terrible record of extinctions and it looks set to get worse.
—————
It’s because the human population is growing too slowly. We need to increase the settler intake because that will “boost” the economy and only then will we have the resources to fence off a few paddocks for those nuisance marsupials.
This is the Lib/Lab/Grn orthodoxy is it not?
Continually Insufferable @ #75 Sunday, May 24th, 2020 – 9:35 am
E-M voters have been told the government ‘saved’ 60bn.
The story is finished now.
Terminator
From Bowen……
Chris Bowen
✔
@Bowenchris
Let’s be clear. The $60 billion costing was made before a single business filled in a form. For @ScottMorrisonMP and @JoshFrydenberg to blame Australia’s businesses for this huge bungle is typical of the dishonesty of the Morrison Govt. They’ve always got someone else to blame.
3,742
6:06 AM – May 23, 2020
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